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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



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    chuckster 11-11-2012 11:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     5

    First of all, lost my first NBA teaser play last night. Houston GAVE the game away to Charlotte. Sh t happens. For today in the NBA: three team 8 point teaser with OK City -1.5, Lakers -1, one open spot. For NFL: Really like all of theguru66 s plays except the Saint Falcons game. This Game is MUCH more important to the Saints, they have to put a solid win streak together or their wildcard hopes go up in smoke. Also never a good idea to fuk with Brees at Home, especially as a dog. I've got this so far: Three team par with Colts -3 (won), Denver -3.5, Seattle -6.5. 5 team 14 point teaser with Jags +17.5 (won), Carolina +18, Miami +8, Saints +16.5, one open spot..if all goes well with the above 3 picks, will hedge third spot of par and take the Jets + 20. Also have a 3 team 10 point teaser with Patriots -1, Niners -1.5, Steelers -2. Good luck to all today and congrats to all winners last night.
    Tanman 11-11-2012 11:24 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.80 (total posts: 3)
    3     4

    I picked a lot of winners (especially the big upsets) yesterday but always found a way to include a dud in my parlays, so I ended up almost exactly where I started for the day. Today looks interesting and after studying all of your picks and analysis, then adding my own spice, here are my top 3 for the day:

    Atl -1.5 (as of now)
    Car +4
    Tampa -3
    Bonus: Bill +13.5

    Hope everyone kills it today!
    joe 11-11-2012 11:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.213 (total posts: 6)
    2     7

    i gave you guys indy and over 36 on a two team tease thurs.
    Silvabullet 11-11-2012 11:03 am xxx.xxx.xxx.225 (total posts: 2)
    4     5

    Today's free winner: 20 unit lock Pats and Ravens tease along with a 10 unit home dog shocker on the Saints to cover the gravy against the over achieving Falcons. Good luck!
    Jmac 11-11-2012 10:58 am xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    4     5


    -Houston under. rain and muddy game
    -Eagles over tons of turnovers which=points
    - Miami dolphins their d vs jake locker allday

    madturk 11-11-2012 10:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    2     4

    I did par hou with the indy game also, my chi coaches are speanding some time on that sf game next week much more important game plus the players heads greww 2 sizes after tenn game, be weary rain and windy tonight and chi has big edge on special teams?
    madturk 11-11-2012 10:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    7     4

    one more hou 1st qtr and 1st half they always try for early lead and then hold and the bears offense sucks 1st half
    JETHRO 11-11-2012 10:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    15     5

    PUBLIC IS POUNDING NINE OUT OF TEN FAVORITES TODAY. EXC IS HOU +1.5. DON'T SEE IT HAPPENING 2 WEEKS IN A ROW.
    MADTURK 11-11-2012 10:03 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    8     7

    top nfl picks,tough week for top picks- und sf after that its tough but hou + det@ -2 und pitt. Im very weary that den vs sd pit vs balt chi vs sf next week keeps this weeks games close so my big plays r ml parlays with the unders and teasers like
    und sf
    det-2
    hou+1.5
    ne ml
    pit ml +und
    den ml
    sea ml
    these pars pay good money and then subtract 1 play at a time for smaller pars
    do the same with teasers
    I did tie a lot of these in with indy and the under, once again nice call on the under GURU66 i believe it was.
    good luck all and remember to bet safe and have fun
    Holybull 11-11-2012 08:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx18.4 (total posts: 9)
    4     6

    My play of the week and I have several other games I'm playing for 1 or 2 units, but, I love the Giants -4.5 for 5 units. Cincy is a bottom feeder and the Giants will come out ready to play especially Eli coming off 2 poor performances. I'm a Pats season ticket holder, so, it pains me to like the Giants, so, much this week, but, this certainly looks like a good play and is my play of the week.

    The other play I like is Houston +1.5 for 3 units. Your getting the better team getting points. It's as simple as that.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 05:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    21     7

    Sorry guys, once again I had a busy Saturday and couldn't post a whole punch of plays for you (NCAA and NBA, I loved Denver tonight, should have posted that one for you guys, my bad). Then I got home and fell asleep. It's late and I want to get a fresh start in the morning so let's get right to it. You know the drill, train at 31-25-3 this year and in the last four weeks when I've had a good Saturday I usually follow it with a good Sunday. Last week I didn't have a good Saturday and same thing happened on Sunday. Well Saturday this week I had a good day so I am looking forward to tomorrow. Here we go....

    1pm, Tamapa Bay is coming off two ROAD victories in a row, I don't have time but I wonder when the last time the Bucs won back to back road games. That has to have them beaming with confidence and I like them in this spot against the Chargers. The Chargers aren't a good road team and they hate going to the east coast. They lost their last road game to the BROWNS, yes the do-do Browns! Oh and they only scored 2 field goals while they did it. I also like the Vincent Jackson story line. Here is what I got on this game, Chargers coming east, on the road, Jackson, home field, chance to go 5-4 and maybe make some noise, and great line value. Tampa should win this game if they want to prove to themselves that they are for real and the Chargers, well, they lost to the Browns. Bucs playing steady right now, run and pass, they win 24-16.

    1pm, I'm pretty sure that Vegas is nervous about putting a big number on the Dolphins. This team is playing very well and should be more of a favorite then 6 hosting the Titans. But their still the Dolphins and Vegas doesn't want to scare anyone away. Miami's defense is very good and Tennessee's is not. Miami's offense is not great but the Titans are going to have a hard time stopping Reggie Bush. I can't believe I just wrote that but he's been on fire lately. This game will start out slow but eventually the Dolphins will pull away and after at least 3 more turnover by the Titans they win this game by double digits. Something like 30-14. Lay the 6.

    1pm, I want you guys to go back two weeks and remember what Peyton Manning did to the New Orleans Saints. He picked them apart like he was in his back yard and now they have to face Matty Ice and his assassin ninja receivers. Atlanta gets no credit for being 8-0 huh? They're in a dome so that isn't going to be a factor and if they score a few TD's early the crowd will be out of it. Falcons are going to end the Saints season and as much as it's a feel good story that the Saints win this game as it really is their "super bowl" game, they just aren't good enough on defense to stop Atlanta. They can't stop the run either. This game is going to be ugly. 38-17 dirty birds.

    4:05, The Jets in Seattle? Really? I'm not going to waste anyone's time on this one. Come on, how are the Jets going to score points in this game. Seattle has one of the best home field's in football and the Jets couldn't score on a high school cheerleader. I am predicting that the Jets score a grand total of 3 points but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they score none. I'm serious. In fact I'm going to go 24-3. Lay the 6.

    4:25, The big bad NFC match-up between the Cowboys and the Eagles. Not what it was cracked up to be huh? The Cowboys stink, they're fractured and broken. The Eagles look like clowns out there. Vick is just going through the motions. Reid is somehow not being asked why Shady McCoy isn't touching the ball almost every down. I feel like he's purposely trying to make Vick look like this because he knows that he needs another QB to win. I bet he could do things to protect Vick but just doesn't care, he needs Vick to fail. Anyway, there is going to be a lot of turnovers and sacks and fumbles and....POINTS! I wouldn't be surprised if both teams hit 30 but I have it at 30-27. Either way, it soars over.

    Sunday's NFL Picks:

    Tampa Bay -3
    Miami -6
    Atlanta -2 1/2
    Seattle -6
    Dallas/Phily over 44 1/2

    Good Luck to everyone today, enjoy the games and please remember to mind the gap.
    eddycash 11-11-2012 05:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx.107 (total posts: 8)
    3     5

    I was -1.5 units today. Only sdsu covered for me. Lets get a plus tomorrow.
    OUCH 11-11-2012 03:15 am xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 40)
    3     6

    Hey PureLock so you went 2-11-1 on College Football today? -51 units?

    That's gotta hurt. Better luck on NFL today.
    BHPicks 11-11-2012 02:55 am xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 29)
    7     26

    Winning night in NCAAF going 3-2 and just 2 plays away from 5-0!! Join us at 12PM for our NFL picks in the following games:

    Titans - Dolphins
    Chargers - Buccaneers
    Lions - Vikings
    Broncos - Panthers
    Giants - Bengals
    Texans - Bears

    We are 46-21-2 in the NFL this season
    69% winning percentage!
    Sharky 11-11-2012 02:13 am xxx.xxx.xxx.159 (total posts: 62)
    5     5

    raiders +9.5.


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 24


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


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    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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