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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 2, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Miami Dolphins (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)
Line: Panthers by 4.

Friday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I don't have much for you this week because there are too many unknowns with all of these damn new coaches. Joe Philbin may want to win his first game though. He should be able to do it against Ron Rivera, who is just 1-4 in the preseason. However, there's not much data here, so this is going to be a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Joe Philbin is 0-1 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-4 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Panthers 20
    Dolphins +4 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110






    Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)
    Line: Chiefs by 1.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Rams were embarrassed last Sunday. Jeff Fisher will probably want to secure his first victory as head coach of the Rams.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Romeo Crennel is 9-8 in preseason games.
  • Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 31-26 in preseason games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 9-5 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Chiefs 17
    Rams +1 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100







    Indianapolis Colts (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
    Line: Steelers by 4.

    Sunday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I don't know what Chuck Pagano wants to do in the preseason, but Mike Tomlin loves winning these meaningless games. He's coming off a loss, so he's probably pissed off.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Chuck Pagano is 1-0 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 3-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 17
    Steelers -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)
    Line: Patriots by 2.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I normally don't bet on Andy Reid in the preseason, but there's a caveat here. The Eagles will be playing their starters into the third quarter because they can't do that next week. Thanks to a schedule screw-up, Philadelphia takes on the Browns next weekend as well as Week 1 of the regular season. In other words, Reid will be treating this like Week 3 of the exhibition campaign, which is when he usually does very well.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Andy Reid is 22-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-7 in Preseason Week 2 games (8-5 in Week 3).
  • Bill Belichick is 29-22 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 22, Patriots 21
    Eagles +2 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200



    Leave a comment

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    Ivar 11-11-2012 11:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.69 (total posts: 27)
    13     3

    And one more thing... PureLock: What book are you going to that's allowing you to parlay a spread and an O/U from the same game?
    Ivar 11-11-2012 11:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.69 (total posts: 27)
    5     5

    Thanks for the compliment Kyle. So I go to a lot of work for my 4:00 picks, and I finish up $10 for the 4:00 games. Classic. +$335 on the week, +$1,452 on the year. I've got 3 units on Houston in what's a topsy-turvy contest. Why on earth did I put $50 on the over? Picks on my blog:
    http://ivarstake.blogspot.com/2012/11/nfl-picks-week-10.html
    NOIDEA 11-11-2012 10:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.92 (total posts: 1)
    18     6

    Just thought id stop by and see how everyones doin .OH WALT???? VERY NICE SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE A PLUS OF 1270 GIVE OR TAKE YOUR KC PICK GREAT JOB.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 09:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    3     9

    @bigleftygolfer

    Always nice to hear from an original passenger. Hope all is well!
    PureLock 11-11-2012 09:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    8     38

    TOP PLAY: HOUSTON(+1) FOR 50 UNITS

    PARLEY OF THE DAY: HOU + OVER(37) FOR 10 UNITS

    GLTA
    GURUBALL 11-11-2012 09:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.123 (total posts: 1)
    107     6

    (BEARS -1) 15 units
    (Under 37.5) 5 units

    GLTA!
    ChoMp 11-11-2012 09:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.12 (total posts: 1)
    26     3

    Bears will stop Houston run game which will make them one dimensional I see turnovers all night gonna be a boring defensive game ... But who knows there might be pick 6s from both teams..

    Leaning
    Bears**
    Under***. 19-16
    Bigleftygolfer 11-11-2012 08:59 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.57 (total posts: 98)
    4     13

    @guru66 nice run and yeah the Atlanta game was tough they just could not push it through... I also like Chicago pickem and /or the over 36.5 wind subsided and blowing straight down the field from north west so I am feeling the over here since the line dropped a bunch due to early weather scare.
    andy w 11-11-2012 08:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    9     3

    @cbrown

    My thoughts exactly. I handicapped the game at CHI - 1.5 as well. Was about to lean toward CHI b/c of the weather, but then Cutler popped into my head.

    I'm counting on the HOU D to rattle him.
    I think they can get it done.
    CBrown 11-11-2012 08:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 33)
    16     3

    I love how PURELOCK throws out 20 unit bets.

    Hence, 1 Unit = 1 Peso
    theguru66 11-11-2012 08:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    6     3

    @CBrown

    I will definitely not quit my day job, thank you.

    @RollTide

    Thanks I'll take 3-2 and if Atlanta didn't choke I would have been 4-1. Unreal how they can't get one yard against the Saints defense...disgusting.
    andy w 11-11-2012 08:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    9     4

    Oh Ram Man ... Philly win big?

    I said it before and I'll say it again.

    The Eagles are 4 points removed from being winless this year ... WINLESS .

    Lay off them Bro .. it's a losing proposition.

    CBrown 11-11-2012 07:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 33)
    6     5

    Texans All Day--Cutler chokes here..
    Roll Tide 11-11-2012 07:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.122 (total posts: 51)
    5     6

    30,000 homes without power due to wind n Chitown, this will be run run run and it is now raining...great game for a no play
    Scoot 11-11-2012 07:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.36 (total posts: 73)
    5     7

    I might wait till kickoff and go over. They are both opportunistic d's. Screw it, it's been a nice day.


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
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    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
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    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
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    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
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    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
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    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
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