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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 2, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Miami Dolphins (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)
Line: Panthers by 4.

Friday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I don't have much for you this week because there are too many unknowns with all of these damn new coaches. Joe Philbin may want to win his first game though. He should be able to do it against Ron Rivera, who is just 1-4 in the preseason. However, there's not much data here, so this is going to be a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Joe Philbin is 0-1 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-4 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Panthers 20
    Dolphins +4 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110






    Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)
    Line: Chiefs by 1.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Rams were embarrassed last Sunday. Jeff Fisher will probably want to secure his first victory as head coach of the Rams.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Romeo Crennel is 9-8 in preseason games.
  • Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 31-26 in preseason games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 9-5 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Chiefs 17
    Rams +1 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100







    Indianapolis Colts (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
    Line: Steelers by 4.

    Sunday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I don't know what Chuck Pagano wants to do in the preseason, but Mike Tomlin loves winning these meaningless games. He's coming off a loss, so he's probably pissed off.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Chuck Pagano is 1-0 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 3-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 17
    Steelers -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)
    Line: Patriots by 2.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I normally don't bet on Andy Reid in the preseason, but there's a caveat here. The Eagles will be playing their starters into the third quarter because they can't do that next week. Thanks to a schedule screw-up, Philadelphia takes on the Browns next weekend as well as Week 1 of the regular season. In other words, Reid will be treating this like Week 3 of the exhibition campaign, which is when he usually does very well.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Andy Reid is 22-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-7 in Preseason Week 2 games (8-5 in Week 3).
  • Bill Belichick is 29-22 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 22, Patriots 21
    Eagles +2 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200



    Leave a comment

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    ryan 10-25-2011 06:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.93 (total posts: 1)
    40     11

    You say "The House always wins in the end don't bet with the public this week", but you already have two picks going with the public, this dude makes no sense to me!
    Wesley C 10-25-2011 06:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.175 (total posts: 1)
    12     9

    Of course Brad Johnson is a future Hall of Famer, he won a Super Bowl. That makes him infinitely better than bums like Dan Marino and Dan Fouts... oh wait, this is an NFL Live discussion with Merril Hoge and Tedy Bruschi, right?
    No Way Jose 10-25-2011 05:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.28 (total posts: 24)
    86     33

    You take away the best teams WR and RB and TWO of the starting OL and what do you have? the redskins.

    They just lost to the Panthers, no way they cover Away at Bills.
    domonic 10-25-2011 05:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 1)
    13     94

    this guy is stupid thinkn the patriots are gonna beat the steelers, u need to move to china
    @Sandy 10-25-2011 04:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 11)
    15     74

    Just to add to the NE bit, they always dominate the Steelers with their speed and spread formations.
    @Sandy 10-25-2011 04:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 11)
    9     12

    NE and Ravens will be my biggest plays of the week. As a Raven fan, I know how good they are at rebounding, and how much better the offense plays at home (the defense needs no prediction)
    Mike 10-25-2011 04:36 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.68 (total posts: 1)
    26     21

    The realjohnmoss is possibly the funniest guy in the world
    Sandy 10-25-2011 04:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.254 (total posts: 26)
    11     13

    Early leans:
    Indy/Tenn UNDER 43.5
    -Munchak is an under coach, likes to run the ball & burn clock. Colts are in full "Luck mode". Expect a grind it out game with points coming at a premium. Titans 23-10.

    New England -3
    -I'll take Belichick & Brady off a bye all day everyday. Expect Brady to be surgical against this beat up Steelers defense. Don't be surprised if this game is a blowout. Patriots 34-14
    Sami Slater 10-25-2011 04:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.168 (total posts: 13)
    11     8

    j3ws please go back and tell me where I said I'm blaming my losses on Walt.

    Now that you've done that and realized I didn't, I can tell you I cap my own games thank you very much. I check out Walt's picks just like I'd check out any other site on the net.

    If he loses and owns up to it without feeling the need to spin doctor everything I would be giving him props for that. I'm smart enough to know the best can (and will) have losing seasons. It's over the long-haul that you judge a capper.

    So if you want to crawl back under your hole feel free to do so.
    j3ws 10-25-2011 04:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.78 (total posts: 2)
    14     20

    Sami, blaming your financial loses on a handicapper is no more "tranparent" than walter's excuses for his poor choices. I learnt a long time ago that football is a game of seconds and inches. Anything can happen, at the end of the day the only person responsible for "your" loses is yourself. Accountability seperates men from boys.
    @j3ws 10-25-2011 04:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.108 (total posts: 3)
    29     15

    Because it's funny? To me it's funny to watch a guy boasting about how great he is all the time, lose. We have a guy with a solid track record but as soon as one thing goes wrong starts crying and whining and protecting his ego like no tomorrow. I don't bet his picks, never have and never will. I make my own picks and have done OK, nothing special. I realize that's not the case for most people here though who blindly bet his picks. That's their mistake in the first place.
    Matt S. 10-25-2011 04:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.20 (total posts: 1)
    13     9

    love the song reference, 867-5309!
    Sami Slater 10-25-2011 04:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.168 (total posts: 13)
    25     11

    This isn't a business for thin skin j3ws. Nothing exposes a wannabe "tout" more than transparent excuses. If he only wants blind loyalists he shouldn't allow comments on his site.

    The criticism is fair.
    9ers baby! 10-25-2011 03:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.25 (total posts: 6)
    15     8

    People just need someone else to blame for their loses. I don't go with many of Walt's picks, but I like how he breaks everything down.
    j3ws 10-25-2011 03:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.78 (total posts: 2)
    108     15

    Why do u losers check his website if u hate his picks? Maybe some of you guys need to grow a sack and start holding yourselves accountable for your own degenerate gambling errors. Its a free game analysis, nobody puts a gun to head and makes you wager his picks, asswipes.


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - June 19


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 18


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 17


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Season:
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