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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 2, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Miami Dolphins (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)
Line: Panthers by 4.

Friday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I don't have much for you this week because there are too many unknowns with all of these damn new coaches. Joe Philbin may want to win his first game though. He should be able to do it against Ron Rivera, who is just 1-4 in the preseason. However, there's not much data here, so this is going to be a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Joe Philbin is 0-1 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-4 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Panthers 20
    Dolphins +4 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110






    Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)
    Line: Chiefs by 1.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Rams were embarrassed last Sunday. Jeff Fisher will probably want to secure his first victory as head coach of the Rams.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Romeo Crennel is 9-8 in preseason games.
  • Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 31-26 in preseason games.
  • Jeff Fisher is 9-5 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Chiefs 17
    Rams +1 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100







    Indianapolis Colts (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
    Line: Steelers by 4.

    Sunday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I don't know what Chuck Pagano wants to do in the preseason, but Mike Tomlin loves winning these meaningless games. He's coming off a loss, so he's probably pissed off.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Chuck Pagano is 1-0 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 3-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 17
    Steelers -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)
    Line: Patriots by 2.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I normally don't bet on Andy Reid in the preseason, but there's a caveat here. The Eagles will be playing their starters into the third quarter because they can't do that next week. Thanks to a schedule screw-up, Philadelphia takes on the Browns next weekend as well as Week 1 of the regular season. In other words, Reid will be treating this like Week 3 of the exhibition campaign, which is when he usually does very well.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Andy Reid is 22-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-7 in Preseason Week 2 games (8-5 in Week 3).
  • Bill Belichick is 29-22 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 22, Patriots 21
    Eagles +2 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200



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    Playtime Chicago 11-08-2012 11:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.68 (total posts: 5)
    14     4

    Walt, I love you man, but are you seriously trying to make the case that you correctly handicapped the Bears/Titans game last week because your pick would have been correct if not for the blocked punt, 3 forced fumbles, Hester return, and pick six?!? You do realize the Bears are averaging 1 defensive TD per game, Tillman by himself is averaging 1 forced fumble per game, and Devin Hester is, more than not, good for 1 big return a game.?? I get that many defensive and special teams score are fluky and can't be predicted but you can't handicap a team like the Bears and completely ignore what Defense and Mr Hester do EVERY week to help Bears cover the spread. Just one man's opinion.
    theguru66 11-08-2012 10:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    5     6

    I had to post after that run, the Jags had him pinned in the backfield and 5 defensive guys had to bring down Donald Brown??

    I want to thank the football gods at this time for blessing me to alter the turn of events in my life and mold me into a proud member of the nation. Can you imagine if you were a fan of THIS team? Holy jeez, they are absolutely horrible. If they can't get back in this game I don't think they win another game this season, you can throw in the towel at that point. That will give the team their playing good line value going forward. Something to keep in mind.

    Hope it stays like this at half.

    Need one more TD in that LA-M Ark game BTW!
    JETHRO 11-08-2012 10:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    5     6

    JAGS MAY BE LUCKY TO SCORE THREE LET ALONE COVER THREE AT THIS POINT.
    Touchdown for Tommy 11-08-2012 10:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.68 (total posts: 8)
    6     8

    Glad a whole bunch of you could jump on my Colts and under pick from 6 this morning. I'll be sure to keep posting early (even if the damn pick loses), so all of you last minute handicappers have something to check out.

    First one to have the balls to call the parlay wins.

    Good luck! I'll take donations later and add them to the "Get Walt to stop writing so much damn fluff!" fund.
    Steelepunk 11-08-2012 10:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.33 (total posts: 8)
    7     5

    Don't understand how anyone could think Jags would be in this game.

    Went with Colts -3, always nice to start the week with an easy win.
    Chumps 11-08-2012 09:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    7     4

    Colts are going to stomp...
    bfs 11-08-2012 09:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 45)
    4     9

    Jags +3 & Under 43
    I usually don't bet with the public, but I'm definitely not this week. I don't think the Colts are all that great, but right now they are riding the Chuck Pagano train (as they should). Jags keep this close and low scoring. 17-16 Colts.

    Went 4-0 in NBA picks last night and hit a parlay. I will ride the Clippers again tonight. I'll have a little write up on the NBA page later on.
    Newbie2011 11-08-2012 08:11 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 4)
    3     5

    @asu22: Jax is really bad and Colts is looking like a tight family with their coach. To me, Colts look like right play.
    theguru66 11-08-2012 08:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    3     4

    @asu22

    It doesn't matter, if that is the score. If the Jags win their already getting points, if the Colts win they lose by 1/2 point spread. Like I said in the write up, I like the Jags but don't think that's the play.

    @mondore81

    Thank bro, that's a dollar a thumb, GOOD LUCK TONIGHT! Welcome aboard. This way to the dining car sir.

    @newbie2011

    I know, I've been slacking on the write up's lately, LOL. Actually it does take a little bit of time but it's worth it if it WORKS! That's the big IF. Like I've said a million times prior, if your not giving reasons you might as well be a monkey with an assult rifle, eventually he'll hit SOMEthing!

    asu22 11-08-2012 07:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.68 (total posts: 1)
    3     5

    @theguru66 17-14 who wins jags or colts?
    mondore81 11-08-2012 07:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.227 (total posts: 3)
    4     6

    theguru66 I got you. 335 likes. Hell you've made me more than 335$ so its the least I can do lol
    Newbie2011 11-08-2012 07:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 4)
    2     6

    @guru: I'm disappointed with you! You spent less time with your write up than a reader and his time clicking the thumbs down!! Please cap properly and put some time into it!!!
    LOL!!
    Newbie2011 11-08-2012 07:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 4)
    4     4

    I watched the 2H of Clippers game after work yesterday. They played Defense now?! This is so atypical of the Clippers I know! If they can keep the D up, the total will go under because I think they will shoot some wild shots expecting it to go in and missing. I can see them starting over confident in their shooting abilities. I'm thinking Thunders ml, Thunders under 191, Clippers pk, and Clippers under 201.5. Which ones am I on the wrong side? Every capper is on Portland because of situational trends, but I'm sticking with the hot LA team (and that is NOT the Lakers!!).
    reddog 11-08-2012 07:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.4.6 (total posts: 15)
    3     5

    Again here we are with a team like the ravens who are in a position to have a breakaway game. They own a 6-2 record which has come, on close hard fought battles, mediocre offense and a little luck thrown in for good measure. This is so similiar to Chic before last week, and look how they "lit it up". Same goes here, look for a blow out, a statement game that will set the bar for the rest of the season. Walt, I agre with you on picking Cinci over Nyg for obvious reasons but I respectfully suggest you take a closer look at this one.
    theguru66 11-08-2012 07:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    10     54

    LOL someone took the time to give me over 300 thumbs down, I love it.


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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