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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
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NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
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NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
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NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2011): 2-2 (-$150)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2011): 2-0 (+$500)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-1 (-$100)

NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Washington Redskins (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 2.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Chan Gailey doesn't care about Week 1 of the preseason. His team has scored 20 points in two contests, including a 42-17 blowout loss to the Redskins in 2010. Washington will want Robert Griffin to gain some confidence, so Mike Shanahan may play him more than Gailey will Ryan Fitzpatrick.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 46-22 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 12-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-5 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bills 10
    Redskins -2 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440






    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
    Line: Eagles by 1.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is one of the most intense coaches in football. He really wants to win these preseason games. Andy Reid, meanwhile, usually doesn't give a damn unless it's Week 3.

    UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to one unit because the Eagles may want to win this game for their coach.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 21-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 6-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Eagles 17
    Steelers +1 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0







    Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 1.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I'm adding this pick as of Thursday morning. Mike Smith doesn't care much about the non-Week 3 preseason games; he's a combined 3-9 in Preseason Weeks 1, 2 and 4. John Harbaugh, meanwhile, is 10-2 in exhibition contests the past three years.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Joh Harbaugh is 11-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike Smith is 6-10 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith 1-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 17
    Ravens +1.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
    Line: Lions by 3.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    This will be a small wager. Jim Schwartz loves winning preseason games, so this would be a larger bet if the Browns weren't preparing their rookies for regular-season action.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Pat Shurmur is 1-3 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 10-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Browns 16
    Lions -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110



    Leave a comment

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    393 11-12-2012 07:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 6)
    3     3

    NBA
    10 unit:704 Philadelphia -4
    393 11-12-2012 07:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 6)
    5     4

    10 unit: K.C + 13
    10 unit: K.C. under 40.5
    5 unit parlay: K.C. + 13 and under 40.5


    1st half.
    5 unit: under 20 K.C
    aztek25 11-12-2012 07:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.73 (total posts: 1)
    4     3

    @guru

    How about Dallas -7 vs timberwolves??
    ProPickEm 11-12-2012 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    4     6

    Take KC +13 and Over 40.5


    PRO PICK EM-------

    ProPickEm 11-12-2012 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    5     7

    Take KC +13 and Over 40.5


    PRO PICK EM-------

    theguru66 11-12-2012 07:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    4     6

    Already posted my NFL play tonight now let's finally get the NBA train out of the station. 11-11 is horrible and that has to improve as I usually have a good feel on the Association. Like I've said in the past, next to football it is the next easiest sport to cap. Obviously that hasn't been the case so far yet this season but hey it can all start tonight...

    7:05; Sixers are hosting the Bucks tonight and Philly has been on a nice little run lately, winning three in a row, all on the road. Their home tonight and I think they'll win and cover against the Bucks. Milwaukee is a strong road team but I think Philly has finally realized that defense wins games. They should be able to clamp down on the Bucks and pull away late in the second half. This game reminds me of when the 6ers played Denver early in he year at home and the nuggets couldnt get anything going offensively. Same concept, 94-85.

    8:05; Bulls hosting Boston and both of these teams are 1-5 ATS this year. So this is a gut game and my gut is telling me the Bulls win. The Bulls are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 times their playing a fourth consecutive home game and have beaten Boston in Chi town 4 straight times. 95-88.

    8:05; can't see Miami losing two in a row and how is Houston going to stop the Heat from scoring? Houston is just out matched and out motivated in his game. Heat by 10.

    9:05; one of he highest numbers I've seen in a while at 203 but I still think the Nuggets Suns game goes over. The Nuggets will not be stopped by the Suns and I'm seeing over 115 from them tonight. Denver's D isn't world beaters so I think the Suns will get theirs as well. I see something like 116-110.

    Monday's NBA plays:

    76ers -4
    Bulls -2 1/2
    Miami -5
    Nuggets/Suns over 203

    Good Luck tonight everyone! Stand clear of the closing doors.
    Sportstradamus 11-12-2012 07:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 1)
    9     8

    Pitt is notorious for not covering large spreads when they are under the national spotlight. Also, the rain that hit us in Chicago will be there for the game which will make for a tough game to put up major points. KC can't on a sunny day. I am saying 23-14 Steelers.

    Take KC and the points and ride the under.

    I also like OKC -6.5, Heat -5(bought down .5), and 76ers rolling against the bucks.

    Good luck!
    andy w 11-12-2012 07:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    9     4

    @The most interesting man in the world

    I agree with you. That's why PIT will win tonight.

    IMO, it says bupkis about PIT covering the spread.

    PS: I like your beer.
    GURUBALL 11-12-2012 06:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.145 (total posts: 2)
    13     5

    We will see....

    Still 49er nation all dam day hahah wassup with that tie
    Shaddddy!
    Wake up 11-12-2012 06:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    6     8

    I bet Even Romeo bet 100 units on the Steelers + 14
    The most interesting man in the world 11-12-2012 06:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    5     6

    & this game means Alot to the Steelers,ranking wise, & nothing To Romeo~ one of the worst coaches ever.
    Not even a Steeler Fan. 11-12-2012 06:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    30     12

    Everybody should know, & I mean everybody should know, the Chiefs are far worse than the Jets, & far worse than the Jaguars.
    Ben will absolutely put on a show tonight, a gazillion Big Unit Randy Johnson's on the Steelers.. C'mon man...!
    andy w 11-12-2012 06:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    13     9

    Tonight's game, the way I see it.

    KC will have 5 or 6 trips to the redzone.
    Since they are KC, this will translate to 3 FGs for 9 points.

    They could conceivably break a KO return or a run from scrimmage for 7, so they should tip out at 16 max.

    So PIT would need 28 points to cover in the *worst-case* scenario. This is not an issue provided they don't take their foot off the gas.

    And this is the main problem I've had with PIT in years past.

    Keep in mind, I'm not talking backdoor cover here .. just PIT screwing over the public.

    I'm playing PIT tonight, but I'd be lying if I said I no concerns.
    Virgin X 11-12-2012 06:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 4)
    6     5

    Had a great weekend thanks to Walt!Glad you do what you do!Think Guru66 is just as good!!Really liked your write up and im with you on the Nation.I can see tonites total pushing just add to the already strange weekend.Tie game really!Gut feelin tells me Steelers lite it up!

    @leech really like Under on Phenix/den.GLTA!
    GURBALL 11-12-2012 06:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.145 (total posts: 2)
    15     7

    THIS GAME DOESN'T MEAN SHIIIT TO PITT. AFTER THIS GAME THEY HAVE 3 DIVISION GAMES . I KNOW THE CHIEFS ARE CRAP GARBAGE AND STR8 SORRY BUT AGAIN THIS IS THE NFL MNF GAME. COULD BE WRONG BUT IM UP FOR THE WEEK AND WIN OR LOSE IM UP...


    (KC +13) 25 UNITS

    GOIN 70 units or 20 units THIS WEEK. IT WAS A GREAT WEEKEND MONEY WISE NOT TO MENTION UP 45 FROM GAMBLING... USUALLY ID ONLY PUT 5-10 units on this play so don't go cray but
    Ima gambler hahahha to the bank either way!!

    GLTA!


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 24


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
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    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
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    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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