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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2012


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2011): 7-8-1 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2011): 2-2 (-$150)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2011): 2-0 (+$500)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-1 (-$100)

NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Washington Redskins (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 2.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Chan Gailey doesn't care about Week 1 of the preseason. His team has scored 20 points in two contests, including a 42-17 blowout loss to the Redskins in 2010. Washington will want Robert Griffin to gain some confidence, so Mike Shanahan may play him more than Gailey will Ryan Fitzpatrick.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 46-22 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 12-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-5 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bills 10
    Redskins -2 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440





    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
    Line: Eagles by 1.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is one of the most intense coaches in football. He really wants to win these preseason games. Andy Reid, meanwhile, usually doesn't give a damn unless it's Week 3.

    UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to one unit because the Eagles may want to win this game for their coach.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 21-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 6-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Eagles 17
    Steelers +1 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0






    Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 1.5.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I'm adding this pick as of Thursday morning. Mike Smith doesn't care much about the non-Week 3 preseason games; he's a combined 3-9 in Preseason Weeks 1, 2 and 4. John Harbaugh, meanwhile, is 10-2 in exhibition contests the past three years.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Joh Harbaugh is 11-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike Smith is 6-10 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith 1-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 17
    Ravens +1.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200






    Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
    Line: Lions by 3.
    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    This will be a small wager. Jim Schwartz loves winning preseason games, so this would be a larger bet if the Browns weren't preparing their rookies for regular-season action.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Pat Shurmur is 1-3 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 10-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Browns 16
    Lions -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110



    Leave a comment

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    Satan 10-30-2011 03:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191)
    13     13

    thank God Webster didn't try to score on that pick...

    so far, this underdogs experiment has worked out pretty well for me, and who knows, Indy might sneak in the back door here if they can get an onside...
    Fade Walt 10-30-2011 03:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.75 (total posts: 22)
    28     12

    Looks like Walt is going to lose 9 units on the early games. Enough said.
    Satan 10-30-2011 03:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191)
    13     12

    woo-hoo! T-Jax is startin for Seattle...

    never thought i'd actually be excited for that, but just watch this line move now... SEA might end up bein favored within a half hour.
    Satan 10-30-2011 02:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191)
    13     14

    i didn't touch this Cards game, wish i picked them instead of the Colts, though...

    Baltimore was so obviously looking ahead to Pittsburgh next week...



    nycsportzfan 10-30-2011 02:36 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 6)
    11     12

    welp, there goes 6units down the tubes for walt with the GIants and Ravens...lol When are these Lines gonna stop going so high? This is the freaking NFL! Just because there is a blowout one week, dosen't mean its gonna always happen!
    Walt Sucks 10-30-2011 01:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 7)
    16     13

    Fade Walt's picks, he is horrible. He will likely lose money again this week, bet on it.
    Satan 10-30-2011 01:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191)
    13     13

    I went with only dogs for the noon games:

    Indy+8.5
    Minny+3
    Rams+13.5
    Fins+9.5

    At 3:00, I like WAS +4, DET -3, and SEA +1.5

    Saw a stat the other day that said it all: there's never been this many teams with a record .500 or better through the first 7 weeks of the season.

    With the parity this year, obviously ANYTHING can happen, so for this week, I'm experimenting a little with actually GETTING points for once.
    beamer 10-30-2011 12:59 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.196 (total posts: 2)
    14     14

    Thanks CLEMSON!!!

    5 units on balt

    2 units on giants

    2 units on Carolina

    Good luck all
    Newbie Capper 10-30-2011 12:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.69 (total posts: 1)
    12     17

    Im going all in with Walt this week. I think this is redemption week.Good Luck all!
    Gordy 10-30-2011 12:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.149 (total posts: 20)
    12     11

    Lot of sharp money on the fish, I already bet Giants but now not so confident
    Brenton 10-30-2011 12:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.204 (total posts: 2)
    11     14

    Vikings and over
    should be a even slugfest. AP is in beast mode


    saints
    rams terrible

    giants
    miami terrible

    bills
    beck and grossman are interception machines

    lions and
    under

    tim teblow had to pull a miracle to beat the crappy dolphins


    pats
    brady is the man

    bengals
    seahawks blow

    cowboys
    phili to inconsistent

    49ers under
    truth 10-30-2011 12:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.172 (total posts: 12)
    12     12

    whats ur picks satan
    dog killer 10-30-2011 12:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 3)
    13     13

    Play Bal big!!
    Play sea big!!

    Leans are Cleve..teams off bye are 3-9ats
    Leans on indi..inflated spread after blow out
    Lean Stl +15.. team that blow out falls flat on next game.
    Lean on wash Plus points, pub is all over cam
    Lean on Hou..Jax falls flat after big win Plus short week to prepare in the road. On top, foster is healthy.
    Lean on det, teeballs is a fluke
    Lean on Mia..Nyg got beat at home by sea before and they were the worst team on the road.
    Silent Reader 10-30-2011 12:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.17 (total posts: 4)
    22     14

    Balt now down to -11 and still dropping...What is up!
    @WALT 10-30-2011 12:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.98 (total posts: 1)
    20     11

    WHERE ARE NFL WEEK 8 SHARPS PICKS???

    MAKING MY DECISIONS NOW...

    GOOD LUCK!!!

    bird


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 22


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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