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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2011): 7-8-1 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2011): 2-2 (-$150)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2011): 2-0 (+$500)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-1 (-$100)

NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Washington Redskins (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 2.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Chan Gailey doesn't care about Week 1 of the preseason. His team has scored 20 points in two contests, including a 42-17 blowout loss to the Redskins in 2010. Washington will want Robert Griffin to gain some confidence, so Mike Shanahan may play him more than Gailey will Ryan Fitzpatrick.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 46-22 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 12-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-5 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bills 10
    Redskins -2 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440






    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
    Line: Eagles by 1.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is one of the most intense coaches in football. He really wants to win these preseason games. Andy Reid, meanwhile, usually doesn't give a damn unless it's Week 3.

    UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to one unit because the Eagles may want to win this game for their coach.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 21-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 6-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Eagles 17
    Steelers +1 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0







    Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 1.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I'm adding this pick as of Thursday morning. Mike Smith doesn't care much about the non-Week 3 preseason games; he's a combined 3-9 in Preseason Weeks 1, 2 and 4. John Harbaugh, meanwhile, is 10-2 in exhibition contests the past three years.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Joh Harbaugh is 11-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike Smith is 6-10 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith 1-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 17
    Ravens +1.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
    Line: Lions by 3.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    This will be a small wager. Jim Schwartz loves winning preseason games, so this would be a larger bet if the Browns weren't preparing their rookies for regular-season action.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Pat Shurmur is 1-3 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 10-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Browns 16
    Lions -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110



    Leave a comment

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    GStar 09-28-2012 04:27 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    6     6

    Looking at the statistics thus far, I'd say BYU probably doesn't win by more then 14. But something about that big number combined with all of the dollars going on HAW make me nervous..

    -

    I see the line has moved to 25.5 and my book still showing 27.5..

    -

    Also the total is set quite low in this considering the spread..

    -

    I'll advise caution but I'm gonna go for it Henry and I'm gonna take the points again. HAW +27.5.
    henry 09-28-2012 03:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 5)
    7     7

    GSTAR - so much to think about re: BYU and HAW.

    BYU didn't do diddly on offense last week but held Boise to a TD, do they repeat that or do they put points on the board?

    Hawaii lets up ALOT of points, will BYU put points up or stall like last week.

    Hmmmm
    Shrugging Shoulders 09-28-2012 03:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.31 (total posts: 1)
    7     6

    I think I need to stop reading this site before making my picks. I'm probably better off flipping a coin. lol :)
    Roll Tide 09-28-2012 01:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.59 (total posts: 1)
    7     7

    Aaron Rodgers has thrown a total of 3 touchdowns in 3 games, who would have thought? Now they come out with a big number, 53, for the NO game. San Fran, Chicago, and Seattle D are just awesome and they shut down the green and gold. I believe Vegas is trying to get the public to play the under in this game. Take the over as two star QBs in desparate need of a win will perform on this Sunday...as long as the weather holds, it is beautiful in the midwest today.

    If you do not have Dallas as your defense in fantasy, try to pick them up for Monday night, then you can drop them. They should be good for about 20 points, pick 6, six or seven sacks. Bears offense is just down right awful...get all over Dallas.
    theguru66 09-28-2012 01:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    6     7

    @@theguru66

    Most of that stuff is me just having fun, I know I use the train reference and it may seem like I have an "ego" but I don't know why someone who preaches all the time that hitting at 60% is good means that I have an ego.

    WIN IT ALL BACK MONDAY NIGHT 09-28-2012 01:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.171 (total posts: 5)
    6     6

    UPSET OF THE WEEK.....

    TAKE CHICAGO BEARS GETTING THE PTS...

    SPECIAL TEAMS AND FIELD POSITION FAVOR BEARS IN A MAJOR WAY..

    Say WHAAT?? 09-28-2012 01:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 22)
    7     6

    "I don't like to lay double digits in divisional matchups this early in the season, so that's the only thing holding me back from making this a huge play. Baltimore should win big."
    ----------------------------

    Not only was Walt dead wrong but he bets 4 units on NE/Bills ( a divisional matchup)..Bring back the replacement Waltfootball.com

    Roll Tide 09-28-2012 01:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.21 (total posts: 1)
    7     6

    @GURUBALL
    im so pathetic i need approval from anonymous posters on a football site!!

    LMAO
    GStar 09-28-2012 12:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    6     5

    OK guys it looks like the Canadian Football League play of the day is Calgary Stampeders -4.5.

    Edmonton has their 3rd string QB in tonight and hasn't been able to put together a win in over a month.

    This line is moving like crazy and is now anywhere between -6.5 and -7. Don't take it this high pay the little extra and bring it down to -6. If you can get it between -4.5 and -6 I think we're lookin' good.

    I'm probably going to go with 2 units on this pick.
    Chiefs 09-28-2012 12:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.52 (total posts: 2)
    9     6

    I wouldn't bet that game Walt. That looks like a trap game for those betting on SD. Same thing happened last year with KC, there defense was awful the first two games then all of a sudden they started to improve. If you watch the second half the last weeks game that defense looked like they are supposed to look like. I think the Chiefs take it by 3. If it was in San Diego I'd feel more comfortable with your pick. The other early picks look pretty solid.
    to fade walter all year 09-28-2012 12:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 6)
    68     6

    What's up with touting on this site? You don't tweet your picks in time to play them, then you brag about how your "sponsors" are killing it. You went 0-4 on your tweeted college picks last Saturday and then didn't tweet a play all day. You bragged about having the Browns and Wash U. last night after the fact and never tweeted those picks prior to the games. Don't mislead everyone here about how great your picks are unless you're willing to post them so all can see.
    GStar 09-28-2012 12:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    7     6

    @Henry

    Thanks man I hope the Alouette's -1.5 pick comes through as well so I cash my parlay.

    --

    Why even bother with the Walter hating? Everyone can see his record hasn't been great since the 2010 season; it's all posted. Use your own judgement, and just don't bet his picks if you don't like them. If you take them, take them at your own friggin' risk. No one is putting a gun to your head.
    GStar 09-28-2012 12:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    6     6

    Don't go crazy on HAW +27..

    It seems easy but the more I look into this one feels too easy. Seems a little like a trap to me.
    Danielo65 09-28-2012 11:17 am xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 72)
    6     6

    @NeedHelp, I'm considering that, though my book is offering +27. BYU's offense might not even score 27, let alone win by that many...
    freefootballguru 09-28-2012 11:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.220 (total posts: 13)
    15     6

    San Francisco -4 @ NY Jets

    I like the 49ers to bounce back after getting surprised by the Vikings. The 49ers stayed east after last Sunday's game so the travel shouldn't be an issue. The Jets are at home but are reeling from the loss of Revis and the offense has been struggling to get anything going. It won't get any easier against one of the toughest D's in the league. I look for San Fran's D to stifle Mark Sanchez and the Jets ground game while Alex Smith plays smart and efficient.

    Minnesota @ Detroit Over 46.5

    I think this game will be higher scoring than expected. Minnesota will want to run the ball with Adrian Peterson but Christian Ponder has been playing well and he gets Jerome Simpson back in the mix. The Vikings have been excited about Simpson as they think he brings a deep ball dynamic to the offense. It looks like Stafford will play and even if he doesn't, Shaun Hill can lead this explosive team up and down the field.

    New England -4 @ Buffalo

    The Patriots have to bounce back after getting shocked at home against the Cardinals and losing a heart breaker in Baltimore. There is a reverse line movement in this one but I have to go with the Pats here. Belichick will have his team extra prepared to go on the road and take on a divisional foe in a very important game for them. Buffalo's backfield is banged up and even if Fred Jackson and or C.J. Spiller play, I don't think it'll be enough to beat an angry Patriots team.

    Tennessee @ Houston Over 45

    We all know Houston has a powerful offense and defense but I think the Titans are coming into their own and finding an offensive identity. I see this being a more competitive game than expected and the teams should cruise past the over/under total of 45.

    San Diego @ Kansas City Over 44

    I've been having some luck with the totals so far this season and here's another one I like. When they're clicking, I think both offenses are strong and this one could turn into a wild AFC West shootout.

    Oakland @ Denver -6.5

    The Broncos have had a tough early season schedule and even though the Raiders had a nice comeback at home against the Steelers last week, I see them as the inferior team here. This is a nasty divisional rivalry but I think this is the game that Peyton really gets it going in front of the home crowd and the defense should smother and harass Carson Palmer.

    Miami +5.5 @ Arizona

    This is a gut feeling that Arizona comes back to earth here and Miami comes in and plays this one close. Miami is playing tough D right now and Kolb is due to make some big mistakes. Tannehill is playing fairly smart and isn't forcing the issue but the Cardinals also have a very tough D. The reverse line movement was enough for me to go ahead and take the points.






    NFL Free Agents - April 19


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 26


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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