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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2012): 8-7-1 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2012): 8-8 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2012): 5-11 (-$1,480)

NFL Picks (2012): 108-125-7 (-$4,260)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Dec. 23, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks - Late Games



Atlanta Falcons (12-2) at Detroit Lions (4-10)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 50.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Falcons -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Falcons -4.
Saturday, Dec. 22, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I've received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 15 RECAP: Good God, what an awful Sunday. I went 5-11, -$1,480. I did well in Weeks 2-11, but the past four weeks have been completely miserable. I had a little bad luck - the Colts definitely should have covered - but I made terrible calls otherwise. Seriously, I could have flipped a coin the past four weeks and been so much better.

I decided that I absolutely had to do something about this. And no, I'm not going to dig through my couch cushions. What I did Sunday night and Monday afternoon was go back to my 2010 picks when I was on fire to see what I was doing differently. I've discovered a few key things, so hopefully I'll have more success after implementing them.

Now, it's time to review what the media overreacted to last week:

1. Everyone thinks the Bears are done now because they've lost Brian Urlacher. The defense actually played very well at Minnesota if you exclude that opening drive.

2. Most of the ESPN people were asking what was wrong with the Steelers.

3. The media is criticizing the Falcons more than ever.

Fading the media didn't even work last week. After going 9-0-1 between Weeks 12-14, it was just 1-2. Hopefully that'll rebound. Here's what the media is overreacting to this time:

1. More "Bears are done" talk. I think they'll be much better once they get their defensive players back from injury.

2. The Steelers are also apparently done - even though they need victories over the two Ohio teams to qualify for the playoffs.

3. Most TV analysts think the Giants don't have a shot to repeat what they did last season - even though they were in the same position they are in now a year ago.

I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Giants couldn't muster anything on the scoreboard against the Falcons, so how in the world will a struggling Matthew Stafford generate any sort of offense? Stafford has committed a ridiculous nine turnovers in the previous five games, including two pick-sixes against the Cardinals of all teams. That was just absolutely pathetic. Jim Schwartz said that he never considered benching Stafford during the shocking loss to Arizona, but the fact that he even had to answer that question shows how far this team has fallen.

There are two issues working against Ser Stafford Lannister. The first is his brutal mechanics. His footwork is so screwed up right now, you have to wonder what the inept coaches are not doing to fix this. The second is that he has only one option to throw to. Granted, it's a damn good option, as Calvin Johnson is on the verge of breaking Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yardage record, but the other receivers, who are playing because of injuries and a Titus Young suspension, are screwing up. They're dropping passes and causing interceptions.

The good news though is that Stafford will have a chance to succeed against Atlanta. The Falcons have a miserable pass rush that has produced five sacks in the past four games. Stafford is seldom sacked, so that definitely won't be an issue. Also, Atlanta has been gashed on the ground this season, ranking 23rd against the run (4.5 YPC). Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell figure to pound the rock effectively, which should limit Stafford's turnover problem.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While Stafford was nearly benched last week, Matt Ryan was torching the Giants, going 23-of-28 for 270 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Giants didn't stand a chance against Ryan, so how are the Lions going to contain him? Detroit has a banged-up secondary featuring starting cornerback Jacob Lacey, who was just placed on injured reserve. The team is so desperate that it just signed Ronald Bartell, an Oakland Raiders' reject.

Another key injury for the Lions is to Nick Fairley, who actually has been more dominant than Ndamukong Suh this year. Fairley missed half the Green Bay game - the part where Aaron Rodgers started heating up - and then all of the last game. The Lions were working out defensive tackles earlier this week, so that says they're pessimistic about Fairley's chances of playing this contest. If Fairley is out again (note: he was placed on IR Wednesday evening), Ryan can breathe a huge sigh of relief because there was no way the mediocre interior of his offensive line was going to be able to block him.

Fairley will also be missed in run support. The Lions were already poor in this area, having allowed 91 rushing yards or more to five of their previous six opponents. Michael Turner actually looked half-decent last week for a change, so if Fairley is out, Turner could have another decent performance, making things even easier for Ryan.

RECAP: Everyone thinks the Lions are terrible, but they're not. Check out their four games before that Arizona loss:

- Lost by seven to the Packers, a game in which they were leading 14-3 with possession

- Lost by two to the Colts, a game in which they were way ahead

- Lost by three to the Texans in overtime

- Lost by four to the Packers

Detroit didn't show up to the Arizona contest, probably because it was looking forward to battling the Falcons. Atlanta just had an emotional victory over the Giants, so it could be very flat here because it doesn't really have anything to play for.

Also, it's worth noting that the Falcons play down to their competition. They nearly lost to the Cardinals, Raiders and Panthers at home, and they also got blown out at Carolina two weeks ago.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you have any doubts about playing the Lions, the leaders in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest are on them. I'm sticking with my play.


The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
The Falcons just won a statement game, so this contest means very little to them. The Lions, meanwhile, will be playing for pride after that embarrassing loss.


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Everyone is on the Falcons. No surprise.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 80% (54,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Matt Ryan is 11-7 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -3.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Falcons 24, Lions 23
    Lions +4 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 50 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Falcons 31, Lions 18
    NFL Game Recaps




    Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-4)
    Line: Packers by 10.5. Total: 45.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Packers -12.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Packers -12.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks lost a record amount of money six weeks ago when all seven highly bet teams covered. However, they've now rebounded four weekends in a row. Only three of the seven highly bet teams covered (Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Seahawks lost money; Falcons, Cardinals, Cowboys won money), but remember that sportsbooks get the vig and parlay/teaser money. Also keep in mind that the Lions losing straight up broke up a lot of teasers.

    I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like the Bears last week, the Titans are in the unfortunate position of having to deal with Clay Matthews, who is coming off an injury. Matthews terrorized Chicago's front line Sunday, registering two sacks. He and the other Green Bay pass-rushers should have another big game, given that the Titans are down four starters (as well as a backup center) on the offensive front. The Jets sacked Jake Locker four times, and they have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL (26 sacks). The Packers, meanwhile, are tied for fifth in sacks (39), which is remarkable given that Matthews has missed an extended period of time.

    All of the pressure Green Bay will be able to generate should force Locker into mistakes. He was turnover-free Monday night for the first time since Week 10, but only because of luck and conservative passing. Locker could have tossed a couple of picks, but ultimately didn't because he was more than happy to run on most occasions if his first read wasn't open. He'll pick up some first downs in that manner against the Packers, but it won't be enough to sustain drives.

    The only reason the Titans even beat the Jets, save for Mark Sanchez's futility, was Chris Johnson's 94-yard touchdown run. Johnson didn't do much else, as he had difficulty finding running lanes behind his banged-up offensive line. The Packers just limited the Bears to 74 rushing yards on 22 carries, so they should be able to contain CJ2K.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: So, with the Packers' defense likely to shut down the Titans' scoring attack for the most part, Green Bay should win this contest easily, right? I mean, how can Tennessee's stop unit contain Aaron Rodgers? Well, the key will be getting to Rodgers, which is very easy considering the sorry state of his offensive line. The Titans have recorded a whopping 15 sacks in the past four weeks, so they'll be able to put the heat on Rodgers, who has been sacked more than any other quarterback in the NFL this year.

    Of course, this won't completely stop Rodgers, who will get the ball out quickly to Randall Cobb, who has emerged as a dynamic weapon. The Titans are among the league leaders in missed tackles, so Cobb and Rodgers' other targets will be able to turn some short catches into long gains.

    The Packers might be able to run the ball a little bit as well, which will obviously help Rodgers from having his league-leading sack total expand even further. The Titans have permitted at least 91 rushing yards to every team since their Week 11 bye. Green Bay itself just mustered 99 rushing yards at Chicago, so it should be able to post a similar total this Sunday.

    RECAP: I'd probably bet a couple of units on the Packers if they weren't coming off such a significant and emotional win against the Bears. But I think they're the right side. Rodgers has an awesome track record as a big favorite, while the Titans have been blown out against every great team they've played this year, losing to the Patriots, Texans (twice) and Bears (when their defense was awesome) by a combined score of 147-57.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't like either side.


    The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
    The Packers won an emotional game at Chicago and could be flat against the Titans.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    This is an easy choice for most bettors.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 82% (44,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Mike Munchak is 3-8 ATS playing a team with a winning record.
  • Packers are 21-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 41-22 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
  • Opening Line: Packers -12.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Titans 10
    Packers -10.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 45 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Packers 55, Titans 7






    Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)
    Line: Panthers by 9. Total: 46.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Panthers -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Panthers -7.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.

    HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. Here are some brief ones from my picks page comment board:

    Walts sponsors are going to leave and this site will be dried up. It's all about winning Walter. Last 2 yrs you have been gawd awful. This site will be removed after this season is my guess. so for us waiters out ther...how about waiterfootball.com?

    I like the sound of that. But what happens when you do well and get sponsors, and then you start sucking like me? All of the janitors reading your site will have to launch janitorfootball.com, and then the same thing will happen to them. It's a never-ending cycle.

    Just wanted to see if the internet worked here. I used to be rich and happy, had a mansion and a ferrari. Now after following Walter's picks this year, I am now living in Starbucks thanks to you...great wi-fi though and the candycane lates are scrumptous...CMON man!!!

    I'm glad I could help you live the dream with my crappy picks! Having great wi-fi is the key to happiness.

    god you are the worst

    Disagree. I think somewhere out there is someone who is even worse than I am. I truly believe that.

    Just quit. Walt, you are really bad this year. Like, terribly bad. Fading your picks might actually be a good idea.

    How many times have I said that this year? At least a dozen, I think!

    Just wanna say thx again for the picks! Today was the most I've made fading you this year. Keep it rollin' brutha!

    See? This guy has the right idea.

    I hope Walt's site stays up simply for the sake of fading every pick and winning. Too bad the NFL season is almost over.

    Oh, there's plenty of time to bet against me in the NBA and college basketball. The losing will never end!

    Walter peeked in 2010 and it looks like he's gonna bottom out this year. He seriously can't be doing this for a living. If so, he needs to figure out a new way to make his bread. This is disgusting. Went with his Jaguars pick today cause it seems those picks really hit and even that one bombed.

    See, that's the problem. I was able to peek around in 2010, but now there's nothing really to see. Funny? No? OK, sorry. But yeah, sadly, this is how I make my living. FML.

    walter needs to stop. this is getting really bad. i think walter is done. sad, but reality.

    You think I'm done? That's nearly the nicest thing any person I don't know has said to me in the past couple of days. You think I'm done, which means you're not completely sure if I'm done or not. That's great because there's now a chance I may not be done!

    Walter sucks he got all them picks wrong.

    No, no, no, no. I got the Broncos and Cardinals right. Get your facts straight.

    Walt you are garbage, have you seen your overall stats the last two years????? You are worse then the secretary in my office who picks based on her lucky lotto numbers!

    True. If I study just a bit harder, perhaps I can overtake her and the woman who picks teams based on her favorite colors.

    Well, I personally am going to stop following Walt. Nice 3 unit rams and colts pics. Genius pic of the freaking week Waaaalt!. Done, done, done with this site. A tip of advice: Quit trying to be cute and funny and cleaver and a wanna be intellectual and start trying at being good at your job. You dont know what HELL your talking about. Well, maybe you know more than most people, but certainly not enoigh to make a career of this and waste everyones time with your opinions.

    Pick of the Week? Umm... no. I lost my Pick of the Month. That's far worse. At least I know that I am cute and funny and a cleaver. It's been my dream to be a cutlery accessory.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton is on fire. His decision-making has improved tremendously over the second half of his sophomore campaign, which would explain why he hasn't committed a single turnover since Week 10. In the five games since, he's thrown 10 touchdowns and obviously no interceptions. He's eclipsed 231 passing yards in every contest, maintained an impressive YPA of 8.6 and completed 60 percent of his passes. And I haven't even mentioned the rushing totals yet; he's scored thrice on the ground in that span.

    The Raiders have no chance. Not that they even care all that much. They have so many lethargic players on that team like Tommy Kelly and Rolando McClain, who just don't give a damn whether their team wins or loses. Of course, you can't completely blame them because it must be hard to give maximum effort when surrounded by so many talentless bums. Oakland's secondary is a disaster area, while the pass rush has immense trouble getting to the quarterback.

    Oakland is also pretty futile in terms of stopping the run, which has to be music to DeAngelo Williams' ears. Williams, who has actually been pretty decent lately, will find plenty of running room against a defense ranked 25th against the rush. The Raiders just limited the Chiefs to 10 rushing yards on 10 carries, but that was likely a fluke, given that they surrendered an average of 151 yards on the ground in the four games prior to last week's shutout.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: While Newton has improved, the Panthers' defense has also stepped up, mostly in terms of stopping the pass. The catalyst for this has been Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy getting to the quarterback on a regular basis. Thanks to a recent surge, Carolina is now tied for seventh in the NFL with 36 sacks. This has helped the defense limit its previous five opponents to a 6.36 YPA, which would rank sixth in the league if extended over the entire season.

    The Raiders have some issues up front, mainly at right tackle. Khalif Barnes is a complete sieve and has no chance against Johnson. Carson Palmer will have to hurry some of his throws, which could prove to be disastrous, as Carolina is tied for 11th in the NFL in terms of turnovers forced at home. Of course, nothing is even guaranteed when Palmer has time in the pocket because Denarius Moore and Rod Streater are ranked among the top 10 receivers in terms of drop rate. Moore actually leads the league in drops for wideouts with 50 or fewer receptions.

    Darren McFadden will have much more luck on the ground. The Panthers have a bottom-five run defense, surrendering 4.6 yards per carry to the opposition. Recall Bryce Brown's epic Monday night performance. However, McFadden hasn't shown the same explosion he maintained in the past, so I would expect a monstrous performance or anything.

    RECAP: I like the Panthers a good deal in this contest. They are on fire, having won three of their previous four games. Their previous two victories have been especially impressive. They destroyed the Falcons and then went on to demolish the Chargers on the road. San Diego isn't that good, but Carolina still happened to be a three-point underdog traveling across the country.

    Speaking of flying across the U.S., that's exactly what the Raiders have to do. They're playing a 1 p.m. game, which has proven to be a terrible situation for them.

    SURVIVOR PICK: The Rams disappointed me last week. For those still alive, the top survivor options are the Packers, Broncos, Patriots, Panthers, Texans, Colts, Redskins and Bears. I already used Green Bay, Denver and New England, so Carolina it is.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I've been asked why the Six and Six Rule doesn't apply here. Well, it might, but I feel like the Panthers are much better than their record indicates. They've had so many close calls that they could easily be 8-6 right now. They've finally figured out how to win, so they should be able to destroy the crappy Raiders.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    No surprise that everyone loves the Panthers.
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 78% (35,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Dennis Allen is 1-3 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.
  • Panthers are 16-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.
  • Panthers are 31-46 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -9.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Panthers 34, Raiders 17
    Panthers -9 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 46.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Survivor Pick (13-2)
    Panthers 17, Raiders 6






    Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)
    Line: Dolphins by 5. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Dolphins -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Dolphins -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

    In addition to my regular hate mail, I recently received 2014 NFL Draft hate mail. Because I run that terrible of a Web site!

    You have Luke Joelle in this draft and then say he mayb a part of 2014 draft. Are u a Walt jr.

    Hey, Walt Jr. had nothing to do with this. He gets excited sometimes, but not when he writes about Luke Joelle, whoever that may be.

    SERIOUSLY 2014 Draft...I don't know whats worse the fact that you created one or that I actually looked at it. Wait I thought it would only include the players not the teams, take the teams off, you only look foolish.

    So, you thought my mock draft would only include the players? So, it should go like: 1. Jadeveon Clowney. 2. Teddy Bridgewater? What fun is that?

    What I should have received hate mail for was my failure to update my 2014 NFL Mock Draft in months. Well, I've finally done that. Click the link to check that out.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: I bet heavily against the Dolphins last week, so it was only natural that Ryan Tannehill would have one of his best performances of the season. He went 22-of-28 for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for 52 yards on eight scrambles. He was on fire after halftime, going 12-of-14 for 141 yards and a score after intermission.

    Based on the way the Bills played last week, they don't have a chance in hell of stopping Tannehill. They were so unprepared for Russell Wilson that it didn't seem like they even knew how well he could scramble. I didn't get it because Buffalo's defense had been playing so well since its bye. The unit is still surrendering 6.2 YPA over the past month, which would rank third if extended over the whole season. Perhaps the Bills were simply looking past an unfamiliar NFC West foe and instead focusing on its remaining two divisional battles. If so, they'll cool Tannehill off, as the rookie signal-caller was just 14-of-28 for 141 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions back in Week 11 against this Buffalo defense.

    The Bills were also uncharacteristically very porous against the run last week. They surrendered 178 rushing yards to the Seahawk running backs (obviously excluding Wilson) despite limiting each of their previous four opponents to 67 rushing yards or fewer. This includes Reggie Bush, who managed just 20 yards on 10 carries in the previous meeting.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: That aforementioned Bills' victory was one of the rare contests in which Chan Gailey actually gave C.J. Spiller the appropriate amount of carries - but only because of Fred Jackson's injury. Spiller had 91 yards on a season-high 22 carries in that contest to go along with three catches for 39 receiving yards. He had nearly as many touches last week, turning 17 rushes into 103 yards. Jackson is done for the year, so Gailey will stick with Spiller, who is a threat to go the distance every time he has the ball in his hands.

    Ryan Fitzpatrick will need Spiller to pick up big chunks of yardage because he's really struggling right now. He went 17-of-27 for 168 yards against the Dolphins back in Week 11, but his completion percentage in three of his four games since has been 55.3 or worse, while his YPA has been a pedestrian 6.3. He's also committed six turnovers in that span, including three last week.

    The one piece of good news for Fitzpatrick is that the Dolphins have the fewest takeaways in the NFL over the past three weeks, so perhaps he'll be able to secure the football in this contest. Avoiding sacks will be another issue, however. Miami is tied for fifth in the NFL in sacks (39), while Fitzpatrick has been pinned down behind the line of scrimmage on eight occasions in the past two weeks. Fitzpatrick will also have trouble in the red zone, just as he did in the previous meeting. The Dolphins' red-zone defense is terrific. Its 38.8 percent is tops in the NFL.

    RECAP: I'm fading the Dolphins for a big play again. They hadn't covered a spread as a 3.5-point favorite in four years, but they're going to do it twice in two weeks? I'm not buying it. The underdog tends to cover in Miami games because the team seldom destroys anyone or gets blown out. The Jacksonville contest was an obvious exception - probably because the Jaguars are one of the two worst teams in the NFL.

    The Dolphins have a more important contest next week anyway. Playing the Patriots will be their Super Bowl. They've been eliminated from playoff contention, so this contest doesn't really mean anything if you think about it. Besides, the Bills were completely embarrassed last week, so they'll be playing for pride.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Multiple people have informed me that the Dolphins are still alive in the playoff hunt. I guess they are, but not really. They need about five billion things to happen. It would be like buying a lottery ticket and claiming that you're alive in the lottery sweepstakes. It's not going to happen.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    A good deal of money was on the host, but it's evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 54% (36,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • History: Dolphins have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Bills are 23-16 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Underdog is 39-16 ATS in the Dolphins' last 55 games.
  • Dolphins are 1-11 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.
  • Dolphins are 7-24 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Bills 23
    Bills +5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$400
    Over 43 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Dolphins 24, Bills 10






    Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
    Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 41.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Steelers -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Steelers -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.

    The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. He once again didn't update his Web site, https://sites.google.com/site/realjohnmossfootball/ this past week. He also hasn't sent me any messages. Perhaps he's too busy paying his gambling debts. Or maybe he found the girl of his dreams in a far-off distant land:



    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton's pretty easy to figure out. He's awesome against the bad and mediocre teams, and he craps the bed against the NFL's elite defenses. The Bengals are lucky in that they've avoided playing superior opponents for the most part under Dalton. I'd say that they've participated in nine such games since the beginning of last season: three contests versus Pittsburgh, three against Baltimore, two versus Houston and one against San Francisco. In those nine matchups, Dalton is a combined 167-of-310 for 1,971 yards, seven touchdowns, 10 interceptions and two forced fumbles. That's a pedestrian YPA of 6.4 and an even-worse completion percentage of 53.9.

    Are the Steelers elite defensively though? Well, their No. 2 ranking against the pass says so, but the play on the field does not. Tony Romo threw all over them, thanks to Troy Polamalu looking hobbled and Ike Taylor. Taylor was a big reason the Steelers were able to limit A.J. Green to just one catch back in a Week 7 victory over Cincinnati.

    Pittsburgh should at least be able to minimize BenJarvus Green-Ellis' effectiveness. The Law Firm has come out of nowhere to rush for 100-plus yards in four of the last five games, but the Steelers rank sixth against ground attacks. They limited Green-Ellis to just 69 yards on 18 carries the last time they saw him, and I don't see why they can't bottle him up again.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers would be so much better off right now if they didn't continuously shoot themselves in the foot. It's like they've become the new Cowboys or Lions; they're inexplicably dropping passes and fumbling balls. They could have nine, maybe 10 victories right now if they were simply more careful with the football.

    The Steelers have to be extra cautious in this contest because they're going up against a dominant aerial defense that is ranked No. 1 over the past month, surrendering a sterling 5.5 YPA to the opposition. The secondary has been great, as has the pass rush, which leads the NFL with 43 sacks, including 20 over the past six weeks.

    Cincinnati's one area of weakness used to be against the run, but defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer appears to have fixed that. The Bengals also lead the league in rush defense over the past month, yielding a ridiculously impressive yards-per-carry average of 2.6 to the opposition. The Steelers gashed Cincinnati on the ground with Jonathan Dwyer (17 carries, 122 yards) in their Week 7 victory, but things figure to be much different in the rematch.

    RECAP: I need to see the Bengals win one game against a playoff-caliber team before I believe in them. They're playing great right now, but only because they've beaten up on crap competition yet again. I'm picking the Steelers, but this spread will prevent me from betting on them. I was hoping to get -3.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to three, but I don't feel as strongly about the Steelers as I did earlier in the week. They're turning the ball over way too much and finding ways to lose.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 52% (57,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Steelers have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Bengals are 16-7 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 23 instances.
  • Marvin Lewis is 9-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game.
  • Andy Dalton is 3-6 ATS against winning teams.
  • Steelers are 26-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 28-16 ATS vs. the AFC North.
  • Mike Tomlin is 18-12 ATS after a loss.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 17
    Steelers -3 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bengals 13, Steelers 10






    New England Patriots (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
    Line: Patriots by 14. Total: 51.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Patriots -10.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Patriots -14.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY'S HAIRCUTS

    Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

    Well, Brady's been stuck on three. He's no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games - especially those involving Tim Tebow - but then he's so lackadaisical in others.

    So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it's the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It's unknown to the media, but Brady's haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

    For instance, the following exchange took place yesterday during practice.



    Bill Belichick: What the hell's going out there? Why can't we complete a single damn pass?

    Josh McDaniels: Yeah, what the hell's going out there?

    Bill Belichick: Stop repeating everything I say, McDouche! These are the worst passing drills I've ever seen!

    Josh McDaniels: Sorry, BB. Worst passing drills I've ever seen too.

    Bill Belichick: Gronk, get over here! Why haven't you caught a pass yet?

    Rob Gronkowski: Coach, it's not my fault. The balls aren't anywhere near me.

    Josh McDaniels: That's what she said!

    Bill Belichick: Shut up, McDouche. Why aren't the balls anywhere near you?

    Rob Gronkowski: I don't know, Coach. Tom seems off his game today.

    Aaron Hernandez: Yeah, no pass has come near me either.

    Bill Belichick: Tom, get over here!

    Tom Brady: Omg omg omgo mg guise i cant see lol omg omg ogm om gomg.

    Josh McDaniels: I don't think he can see, BB.

    Bill Belichick: I know that, moron! Tom, why is your hair covering your eyes?

    Tom Brady: Whoa like omg omg omg ogmg ogmg allz i can see is haiir loolololololol.

    Bill Belichick: Ugh! Part your hair or something, so your eyes will be uncovered.

    Tom Brady: I cant seeee but i can't hair either cuz omg omg omg hiars covering eyes and ears hahahah like whooaaa!!!

    Bill Belichick: Why the hell would you get a haircut like this?

    Matt Slater: I can answer that, sir. Tom was saying how much the Jaguars suck and that he could beat them blindfolded, so I guess he's testing his theory out.

    Bill Belichick: Good God. We haven't even completed a pass in practice yet. Tom, I don't care how much the Jaguars suck. Just stop this nonsense, now!

    Tom Brady: Omg omgogmgog wha did you say liek i said ic an t hear you ro seee you hahahaa lolololl!

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady was tremendous in that near-comeback against the 49ers. He went 26-of-46 for 367 yards, two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing) and an interception after halftime. And this happened to be against San Francisco's vaunted defense, so imagine what Brady will be able to do at Jacksonville - especially if Rob Gronkowski plays.

    It's unknown if Gronkowski will be able to suit up, but he did practice on a limited basis Wednesday. Even still, if Gronkowski misses yet another game, it's not going to hurt Brady too much in this contest, given that Ryan Tannehill just absolutely terrorized Jacksonville's inept stop unit. Tannehill misfired on only six passes last week!

    It'll be interesting to see whom Bill Belichick opts to use at running back. Both Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen were benched after losing fumbles versus San Francisco, as Belichick was more than happy to utilize the more reliable Danny Woodhead, who actually ran very well. It doesn't even matter who the running back is though because the Jaguars have surrendered at least 127 rushing yards to six of their previous seven opponents. It's just more intriguing from a fantasy football perspective.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars have been a one-dimensional passing team ever since Maurice Jones-Drew went down with an injury back in Week 7. A one-dimensional passing team with no quarterback, that is. Chad Henne looked great for a two-game stretch, but has regressed ever since. He's still getting the ball to talented receivers Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon, unlike Blaine Gabbert, but he's been poor in key situations like third downs and red-zone opportunities.

    The Patriots have a porous secondary that can be exploited, but I can't say I exactly trust Henne to get the job done. However, it's worth noting that Henne absolutely torched New England the last time he battled Belichick's defense, going 30-of-40 for 416 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. It wouldn't completely surprise me if Henne came out completely sharp in this contest, but he's so maddeningly inconsistent that anything can happen with him.

    Jones-Drew, by the way, has a slight chance to play in this game. He was running at full speed for the first time in Wednesday's practice. He's still a long shot to play, but it's encouraging nonetheless that he's getting close to returning because Jacksonville has not been able to run the ball without him. It goes without saying that Henne would have a much better chance with Jones-Drew lining up in the backfield with him.

    RECAP: The Jaguars are in a great spot. Home underdogs that fail to cover in consecutive contests late in the year are usually great bets. Plus, non-divisional double-digit home underdogs have a high rate of covering. However, I learned my lesson. Bottom-feeder teams like Jacksonville and Kansas City cannot be trusted to cover, even when the best spot situations and trends are supporting them. I'm still picking the Jaguars, but they're not taking anymore of money.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I received some hate mail for picking the Jaguars to cover the spread. That's what it's come to. I still favor Jacksonville, but I'm not betting on either side.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    Not even I want to bet on the Jaguars right now.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 86% (45,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Tom Brady is 144-48 as a starter (111-76 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 26-13 ATS off a loss (4-7 ATS as -7 or more).
  • Tom Brady is 18-9 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-6 ATS as -7 or more).
  • Jaguars are 15-33 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -14.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Jaguars 27
    Jaguars +14 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 51 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Patriots 23, Jaguars 16




    Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)
    Line: Colts by 5. Total: 42.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Colts -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Colts -7.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Colts.

    Some random NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. If you aren't aware of what happened at ESPN headquarters this past week, some analyst named Rob Parker (I've never heard of him before this) said the following about Robert Griffin:

    "But time and time we keep hearing this, so it just makes me wonder deeper about him. And I've talked to some people down in Washington, D.C., friends of mine, who are around and at some of the press conferences, people I've known for a long time. But my question, which is just a straight honest question. Is he a brother, or is he a cornball brother?"

    Rob Parker was then asked to explain what that meant, but he only made things worse for himself:

    "Well, [that] he's black, he kind of does his thing, but he's not really down with the cause, he's not one of us. He's kind of black, but he's not really the guy you'd really want to hang out with, because he's off to do something else."

    Wow. These are the types of scumbags the "worldwide leader" employs. And you know what the kicker is? ESPN hasn't even fired him yet! They've suspended him "indefinitely," whatever the hell that means. Rush Limbaugh was axed for saying something far less egregious (and it happened to be completely true), yet Parker is still an employee. You have to love ESPN's double standard.

    Forum member Zodiac had a great take on it: "Cornball...WTF!? Also how the **** can Rob Parker talk about being ghetto when his a** works as a major media company and he has to wear a damn suit every day and debate topics. How f***ing ghetto is that?"

    2. More media hypocrisy time! You know that awful Cee Lo song at the beginning of the Thursday night telecasts? Well, we may not have to endure it if Cee Lo is convicted of rape. Cee Lo, if you haven't heard, was accused of rape in November. And here I was, such a big fan of all of his hit songs.

    So, how is this hypocritical? Steven Lourie, owner of FootballFanSpot.com, tweeted the following: "[Cee Lo] allegedly raped someone, but he gets to keep this job. Hank Williams says something and gets fired. Huh?"

    You have to love the message the media is saying: It's OK to allegedly rape women, but if you make a conservative political statement, you will be fired!

    3. I absolutely hate the kid in that Play 60 commercial with Cam Newton. I can't stand him. He's just so damn annoying that it's driving me insane. Maybe it's because this commercial airs like five billion times per hour. Seriously, it was amusing the first five times I saw it, but they've played it so much that a part of my soul now dies whenever I see it on TV.

    I never understood the obsession with making kids play outside for 60 minutes every day. Who cares? I say let them stay in and become more familiar with technology. Sure, they'll be fat slobs when they grow up, but they'll at least be smart and tech savvy so that they can invent cool things.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Calling this an offense would be an insult to all other offenses. The Chiefs can't move the ball whatsoever. It's pathetic. They didn't register a single first down in the first half of last week's game. In fact, they had more penalty yardage than total net yardage until midway through the third quarter. Of course, that's to be expected when Brady Quinn is throwing to a bunch of bums behind a banged-up offensive line.

    The Colts are terrible defensively, so some may expect that the Chiefs will be able to move the chains on occasion and put up enough points to keep this game interesting. However, Oakland's stop unit is much worse, yet Kansas City couldn't muster a single point against the Raiders last week. With Dwayne Bowe out, I just don't see how the Chiefs' aerial attack is going to pose any sort of threat to the Colts.

    The one hope that Kansas City has is Jamaal Charles breaking a big run or two, which is why it's puzzling that he received only three carries in the first half of last week's shutout. Charles will undoubtedly see more touches this Sunday, but it may not even matter. He broke a long touchdown against the Browns two weeks ago, yet the Chiefs were only able to post seven on the scoreboard.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Kansas City's defense isn't as bad as its offense, but it's still pretty dreadful. Nothing really works for the Chiefs. First of all, they can't get any pressure on the quarterback, as they've registered the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 24. They couldn't even sack Carson Palmer a single time last week. Andrew Luck, who had issues with pass protection at Houston, will find it more comforting to operate with a clean pocket.

    Luck will be able to torch the Chiefs' bottom-10 pass defense, especially if Brandon Flowers isn't 100 percent. The bastard of Highgarden suffered an injury last week, but told the media that he expects to play in this contest. Even if he suits up, Kansas City just doesn't have the personnel to cover all of Luck's receivers.

    Stopping the run will be an issue for the Chiefs as well. They just surrendered 199 rushing yards to the Raiders, for crying out loud. Vick Ballard has looked pretty good in recent weeks, so he'll continue to shine. Perhaps Bruce Arians will even use him at the goal line this Sunday.

    RECAP: This is an obvious sandwich game for the Colts. How can they possibly be focused on Kansas City in between two battles against the Texans? I'd take the Chiefs under normal circumstances, but they've lost their previous two games to the Browns and Raiders by 23 and 15 points, respectively. It appears as though they've mailed it in, so I'm picking Indianapolis.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I read a report that Romeo Crennel is having health complications. That could be the reason why the Chiefs have been worse than usual lately. I'm not going to bet on the Colts, but please use that information if you're thinking about laying money with Kansas City.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
    The Colts somehow have to get up for the Chiefs in between their games against the Texans.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    Not even I want to bet on the Chiefs right now.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 88% (46,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Andrew Luck is 4-0 ATS off a loss.
  • Chiefs are 11-27 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -6.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Chiefs 3
    Colts -5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 42 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Colts 20, Chiefs 13




    New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)
    Line: Cowboys by 2.5. Total: 53.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Cowboys -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Cowboys -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    Instead of college football notes, I'd like to post this awesome December Madness proposal by e-mailer Wesley C:

    Sugar Bowl Region

    1. Notre Dame (bye)
    4. Nebraska vs 5. UCLA
    3. Texas A&M vs 6. San Jose State
    2. LSU vs 7. Kent State

    Fiesta Bowl Region

    1. Florida (bye)
    4. Oregon State vs 5. Boise State
    3. Oklahoma vs 6. Utah State
    2. Stanford vs 7. Tulsa

    Rose Bowl Region

    1. Oregon (bye)
    4. Clemson vs 5. Northwestern
    3. Florida State vs 6. Louisville
    2. Georgia vs 7. Arkansas State

    Orange Bowl Region

    1. Alabama (bye)
    4. Northern Illinois vs 5. Michigan
    3. South Carolina vs 6. Texas
    2. Kansas State vs 7. Wisconsin

    How fun would this be? Everyone would be able to fill out brackets and spend their workday watching games. I especially like how the top four teams get a bye, so there's more of a chance they'll advance further in the tournament.

    If I were filling out this bracket, I think my big upset would be Utah State over Oklahoma because Bob Stoops has a history of losing to mid-majors. My Final Four would be Texas A&M, Stanford, Georgia and Alabama. Johnny Football will triumph over the Fighting Irish because he's awesome. I don't like Florida's offense. Oregon will likely choke against the Bulldogs, and the Crimson Tide are the Crimson Tide.

    My championship? Alabama over Texas A&M. Nick Saban will get his revenge and triumph - just as he will in real life.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: I'm always among the first to criticize Tony Romo when he falls short in big games, so I have to give credit where credit is due. Romo has been exceptional ever since losing to the Redskins on Thanksgiving. In the three games since, he's 77-of-112 for 912 yards, six touchdowns and an interception. That's a YPA of 8.1 and a completion percentage of 68.8 despite battling the Bengals and Steelers - two of the better pass defenses in the NFL.

    If Pittsburgh and Cincinnati couldn't stop Romo, how in the world is New Orleans' pathetic stop unit going to contain him? Despite shutting out the Buccaneers - where did that come from? - the Saints are still ranked 29th in pass defense, surrendering an 8.01 YPA to the competition. They have just three sacks in the past four weeks, so Romo will have all day to find the red-hot Dez Bryant downfield.

    DeMarco Murray also figures to dominate. New Orleans' porous defense has surrendered at least 118 rushing yards to six of its previous eight opponents. Sure, it limited Doug Martin and Tampa's other backs to just 59 rushing yards last week, but only because the Buccaneers were down early and had to abandon the run. In the end, they still averaged more than four yards per carry.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees seems to have broken out of his three-game slump, which is terrible news for Dallas' banged-up defense. Brees, assuming he stays sharp, should be able to match the Cowboys point for point.

    The Cowboys have so many problems defensively. Let's begin with the aerial aspect of it because that's where New Orleans can hurt them the most. Dallas is ranked 27th against the pass (7.6 YPA), but is even worse in the past four weeks (8.2 YPA). Ben Roethlisberger was able to move the chains at will on the Cowboys, so Brees should be able to do the same thing.

    Thanks to numerous injuries, Dallas is ranked dead last against the rush over the past month, allowing a ridiculously horrific 6.06 yards per carry to its previous four opponents. As a reference, the Cardinals are next-worst at 5.38. To the average fan, this may not see like a problem to have against the Saints because they're not known for running the ball, but that's simply not the case. Mark Ingram has been a force on the ground the past couple of weeks, rushing for 5.9 yards per carry against the Giants and Buccaneers.

    RECAP: Everyone's excited about the Cowboys again. They're now in contention to claim the NFC East crown, as they're expected to win this game and then challenge the Redskins in Week 17. However, when expectations are high in Dallas, that's when the team usually disappoints.

    New Orleans is my top play this week. Here's why:

    1. The Cowboys are not good front-runners. They often fold under pressure, which would explain why they're 7-16 against the spread at home in their new stadium if you exclude the Thanksgiving games. They've been favored eight times this year. They're 2-6 against the spread in those contests, covering only against the Panthers (thanks to a fluky front-door field goal) and inept Eagles (in Philadelphia). Amazingly, Dallas has been outscored in the eight games in which it was favored!

    2. Dallas is coming off a very emotional victory over the Steelers. The team will be flat and will have one eye on the Redskins' game because they have to figure out how to beat Robert Griffin after he humiliated them on Thanksgiving.

    3. The Pittsburgh victory also factors in this way: Home favorites coming off close wins as home underdogs seldom cover the spread.

    4. The Saints, meanwhile, will be playing this game as if it's their Super Bowl. All they have is Carolina at home next week, so knocking off the Cowboys is the most they have to play for until next year.

    5. I loved New Orleans even before my friend Matvei sent me this text about why he's fading Dallas: "Jason Garrett and Tony Romo were so smug in their post-game press conferences after beating the Steelers. I was trying to remember where I'd seen this before and then it hit me: These were almost carbon-copy reactions of Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh's after the big win over the Steelers last year. Flacco was arrogant, and all Harbaugh could do was gush about how proud he was of the guys and how they needed to prepare for Tennessee next week."

    The Ravens went on to lose to the Titans as favorites - which is precisely what I think will happen to the Cowboys this week.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Saints.


    The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
    The Cowboys are coming off an emotional win and they have to prepare for the Redskins next week.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action after early money on the Saints.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 53% (51,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Drew Brees is 32-24 ATS as an underdog.
  • Cowboys are 7-16 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).
  • Tony Romo is 9-18 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -3.
  • Opening Total: 51.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Cowboys 31
    Saints +2.5 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Over 53 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Saints 34, Cowboys 31




    Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)
    Line: Redskins by 5. Total: 45.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Griffin).
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Redskins -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Redskins -6.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.

    If you've been reading this Web site for a while, you know that I love to respond to mess with spammers. It's fun writing material, and besides, if they're busy with me, they're not conning someone else - so I consider myself a good samaritan for doing this.

    I currently have a long entry with this woman Mulyana running. It's taking up too much space, so I've given it its own page. Click here for the Steve Urkel Spam Mail.

    Unfortunately, I fear that my interaction with Mulyana has come to an end. I haven't heard from either her or her lawyer in two weeks. Perhaps they called the Winslow household in Chicago and discovered that they were being played by someone pretending to be Steve Urkel. Or maybe they were so angry about receiving Monopoly money in the mail that they quit their spamming schemes.

    Anyway, I received another spam e-mail recently:

    Hello. This is Yosep Hong, operating director at Association of School Teachers (AST) in South Korea.

    Currently, we are working hand in hand with several local Korean government agencies to recruit qualified teachers from the United States.

    Since 2007, AST as nonprofit organization has been focusing on cultivating global talent for education, and representing American teachers’ right in South Korea. As an effort from our office staffs, all 1200 schools which are involved in Gyeong-gi Do and other cities from elementary schools to high schools have hired over 600 English speaking teachers from the United States.

    From this fall semester 2012, over 200 teachers from the United States has been participated in our program in South Korea. You may contact our teachers through AST Facebook page.

    Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/astkorea.org
    Website: http://www.astkorea.org

    Please apply our teaching program if you interested in.

    Sincerely,

    Yosep Hong

    Hmm... what personality should I assume this time? I know!



    This is almost going to be too easy...



    Foodball? What the hell is foodball? Actually, foodball sounds pretty awesome. Perhaps I should start a site called WalterFoodball.com. Maybe I'll get most of my foodball picks right.

    Oh, and "Then he.she may really interested of you suggestion?" This sounds like a legitimate job proposal.



    Looks like I'll have to get a resume prepared.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The big news Wednesday afternoon was that NFL.com reported Robert Griffin is expected to return barring any setbacks. Kirk Cousins performed admirably last week, but this has to be a big relief for Washington fans, as its team can't really afford a letdown if it wants to make the playoffs.

    But how could the Redskins possibly lose to Philadelphia? After all, Griffin ran circles around the Eagles back in Week 11, rushing for 84 yards on 12 scrambles in addition to passing 14-of-15 for 200 yards and four touchdowns. Well, Philadelphia's defense has performed better ever since defensive line coach Jim Washburn was fired. The Eagles have ditched the wide-nine formation and have almost instantly improved tremendously in terms of pressuring the quarterback. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox in particular have been unstoppable.

    Having said that, I can't really see Philadelphia having too much success against the Redskins. Griffin is just too good not to expose the deficiencies the Eagles have in their secondary. Meanwhile, Alfred Morris should once again serve as a solid complement, given that Philadelphia has surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to its previous three opponents.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I wrote that the Eagles have improved defensively. They still gave up 34 points to the Bengals this past Thursday, but only because of five turnovers and a blocked punt. Their offense is just too sloppy with the football; they're tied with the Chiefs and Jets for the most giveaways in the NFL.

    LeSean McCoy will be available on a limited basis Sunday, which at first glance should help remedy the turnover problem. Bryce Brown, while talented, can't take care of the football. However, McCoy has dealt with a fumbling issue of his own. I still trust McCoy much more than Brown, but the Eagles will still figure to cough the ball up more than an ordinary team would.

    As for Nick Foles, he took a step backward against the Bengals, though that's understandable, given that Cincinnati's aerial defense has been the best in football over the past month. The Redskins, who have improved in that department, limited Foles to 21-of-46 passing for 204 yards and two interceptions in his first start back in Week 11. Foles was hurt by dropped passes in that contest, but the Eagles are such a sloppy team that they could very easily continue making the same mistakes.

    RECAP: I don't have a strong opinion on this game. I'm taking the Redskins because the Eagles will almost surely find some way to screw up and give Washington some free points, but I'm not willing to bet on it.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm going to put a unit on the Redskins. I don't see why Philadelphia would play well in this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Redskins have the Cowboys next.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    Who's going to bet on the Eagles against Robert Griffin?
  • Percentage of money on Washington: 86% (14,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Eagles have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Redskins are 8-24 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -4.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Eagles 20
    Redskins -5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 45.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Redskins 27, Eagles 20




    St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
    Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 44.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Buccaneers -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Buccaneers -3.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Rams.

    Video of the Week: My editor alerted me of this. Jim Harbaugh, head coach of the 49ers, was once a guest star on Saved by the Bell: The New Class. I didn't believe it either until I saw this.

    Wow, how demeaning. Not only are Harbaugh's acting skills awful; he wasn't even asked to be on the real Saved by the Bell. Instead, he was relegated to the God-awful New Class, which was an abomination.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Zero points? What the hell was that? I don't know what's happened to Josh Freeman in the past three weeks. He completed about 44 percent of his passes and the Broncos and Eagles and then proceeded to toss four picks against the Saints of all teams. He went 24-of-42 for 420 yards and three touchdowns in the previous matchup against New Orleans back in Week 7, so something has to be either physically or mentally wrong with him right now.

    The Rams won't make it any easier for Freeman. They have the No. 8 aerial defense over the past month, thanks to Cortland Finnegan, who will do his best to take Vincent Jackson away, and a pass rush that has the fourth-most sacks in the NFL with 41. If there is something wrong with Freeman, there's no way he'll be able to sustain drives against St. Louis.

    Running the ball with Doug Martin may seem like a lucrative option, given that Adrian Peterson trampled St. Louis' defense, but Martin appears to have hit a rookie wall, gaining 3.6 yards per carry or worse in four of his six previous games. Besides, despite what Peterson did last week, the Rams are pretty decent versus the rush. Believe it or not, they were ranked sixth in that department going into last weekend. Peterson absolutely changed that - they're now 13th - but Martin is certainly no AD.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: If there's something wrong with Freeman, the Buccaneers don't have a chance to win any games because their defense for the most part is miserable. They have the worst secondary in football - even the Saints permit a better YPA to opposing quarterbacks than Tampa Bay.

    Sam Bradford may not seem like much of a threat to Tampa's secondary, but he has Danny Amendola back from injury to complement Chris Givens, who has matured into a pretty reliable receiver. The Buccaneers don't get much pressure on the quarterback - they're tied for the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL with 25 - so Bradford will have lots of time in the pocket to find his healthy receiving corps.

    The Rams will obviously try to run the ball with Steven Jackson. I wouldn't give them much of a chance of doing so because of Tampa Bay's No. 1 ranking versus the run, but perhaps they're going to lose that distinction soon; the Saints just gashed them for 138 yards on the ground, so if Jackson has a solid game, the Buccaneers could fall behind the 49ers in that department.

    RECAP: I like the situation the Buccaneers are in. They're coming off a huge loss, which is usually a big "play-on" dynamic. However, I'm concerned that like last year, the Buccaneers are quitting on their coaching staff. I also sense that there's something wrong with Freeman's physical or mental health. He endured personal issues late last year, so perhaps they've come back to haunt them. But that's just speculation.

    The Rams, meanwhile, are playing solid football right now. I know they just lost to the Vikings, but I think we can chalk that up to Peterson just going nuts. Prior to the surprising Minnesota loss, St. Louis had defeated the Cardinals (easily), Bills (who were also playing well) and 49ers.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Sticking with zero units.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    Who wants to take St. Louis after that ugly loss to Minnesota?
  • Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 62% (28,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Rams are 9-4 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+ excluding September games since 2005.
  • Rams are 23-35 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Buccaneers are 8-20 ATS at home in the previous 28 instances.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Buccaneers 17
    Rams +3 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 44 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Rams 28, Buccaneers 13




    Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Houston Texans (12-2)
    Line: Texans by 8. Total: 44.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -8.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Texans -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Texans -9.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Texans.

    WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

    Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 37 people remaining. Eleven dropped out because of the Rams, Lions and Chargers.

    Picking Contest: We're also running an NFL Picking Contest. It's free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

    Win Free Money! My friend Tom Harkins sent me an e-mail about a promotion: "I'm running a give-away from my site. People who 'friend' my Facebook page (FantasySportsTrophies.com) are entered into a drawling for $500. If they follow my Twitter feed (@FantasySportsTr), they're entered for ANOTHER $500 give away. Winners will be posted/Tweeted on Super Bowl Sunday."

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: All eyes are on Adrian Peterson. Though he suffered a devastating knee injury almost a year ago, he currently stands at 1,812 rushing yards on the season. That's 294 shy of breaking Eric Dickerson's heralded record. It's difficult for any running back to gain that many yards in two games - especially one who constantly faces nine men in the box - but if anyone can do it, it's Peterson. I've bet against him too many times, so I'm now convinced that he's going to pass Dickerson.

    Battling this defense may seem tough for Peterson on the surface, but Houston has been a bit soft versus ground attacks lately. The Texans have surrendered at least 99 rushing yards to three of their previous four opponents, including 114 to the Colts on Sunday. They've permitted 4.55 yards per carry to the opposition in the past month. If Vick Ballard can cross the century mark, why can't Peterson approach the 200-yard barrier?

    Of course, it doesn't matter how well Peterson runs because Christian Ponder has proven that he can barely do anything positive without Percy Harvin on the field. It's tough to blame Ponder fully because he's throwing to Kyle Rudolph and a bunch of bums, but it's still inexcusable that he has more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4) since the beginning of November with Peterson ripping off big chunks of yardage all the time.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have their own star runner, and he'll be eager to prove that he can be the best back on the field Sunday. Arian Foster hasn't been nearly as good as Peterson this year - his 4.0 yards-per-carry average is a head-scratcher - but he'll be amped up because the top player at the position will be playing for the other team.

    Foster should be able to run well. The Vikings have been leaky versus the rush in recent weeks. They haven't surrendered high totals on the ground because they've been ahead, but opposing runners have averaged 4.9 yards per carry against them in their previous three games. Foster, who accumulated 165 yards on the ground this past Sunday against the Colts, could approach 200 himself.

    This is obviously music to Matt Schaub's ears because Schaub is at his best when orchestrating his patented play-action bootlegs. He'll utilize these to find his receivers, including Andre Johnson, who is on fire right now. Johnson is playing some of the best football of his career, and I don't think Minnesota's secondary has a chance against him.

    RECAP: The Vikings have actually been playing great football lately. They just blew out the Rams and beat the Bears pretty convincingly. Before that, they lost by nine to the Packers, but they held the lead for most of that game. As for the Texans, when's the last time they had a convincing victory? I think you have to go all the way back to that Sunday night win over Chicago. Think about it - since then, they went into overtime against the Jaguars and Lions. They then beat the Titans by 14 (who hasn't?). They defeated the Colts last week, but Indianapolis blew so many opportunities.

    I think Minnesota is getting way too many points, so I'll take it for two units.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm still taking the Vikings for a couple of units.


    The Psychology. Edge: .
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Houston: 55% (45,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Vikings are 5-25 ATS in their road finale since 1980.
  • Opening Line: Texans -7.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Vikings 17
    Vikings +8 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Vikings 23, Texans 6




    San Diego Chargers (5-9) at New York Jets (6-8)
    Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 38.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Jets -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Jets -3.
    Sunday, Dec. 23, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 16 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Jets.

    Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 16 has been posted - Emmitt's friends attempt a rescue mission at Bountygate II headquarters.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Rejoice, Jet fans! It took Rex Ryan until the second half of December, but he finally made a coaching change! He's replaced Mark Sanchez with the great Tim... uhh... Greg McElroy... huh...?

    McElroy may not be the quarterback the fans want, but he still projects as a better option than Sanchez - and not only by default. Sanchez had been playing like one of the worst starting signal-callers in NFL history this year. The amount of turnovers he had was simply unforgivable. He gave his team absolutely no chance to win by constantly throwing poor interceptions, coughing the ball up or running into his lineman's a**hole. McElroy, at the very least, comes with the promise of taking care of the football. He doesn't have the talent to consistently lead big comebacks or engage in shootouts, but he'll at least let the Jets play mistake-free football.

    The Chargers are a good opponent for McElroy's first start because they don't bring much pressure. They're tied for the seventh-fewest sacks in the NFL (27), so the Jets' pathetic offensive line won't be able to screw up too badly. Also, San Diego just surrendered 148 rushing yards to the Panthers, which excludes Cam Newton's ground yardage. Key run-defenders Donald Butler and Atari Bigby were out of the lineup. The latter is on injured reserve, and if the former misses this contest, Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell will pick up where DeAngelo Williams left off.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Jets have been pathetic offensively, but so have the Chargers. The problem is simple: They can't block. The left tackle last week was some undrafted bum named Kevin Haslam. The right tackle was 32-year-old journeyman Reggie Wells, who was signed off the street in early December. As a result, Philip Rivers had no time in the pocket and couldn't get the ball to his best player, Danario Alexander, who put up a big goose egg.

    It doesn't take much of a pass rush to get past San Diego's anemic front line. The Jets actually have fewer sacks on the year than the Chargers do (26), but seven of those have come in the past two games, including four against the mobile Jake Locker on Monday night. If they can bring down Locker four times, they'll definitely be capable of doing the same to Rivers, who can't maneuver around the pocket whatsoever.

    Making matters worse for Rivers, he won't have much of a ground attack to support him. Ryan Mathews is out for the year with his second broken collarbone of the season - how the hell does that happen? - so the Chargers will have to put Rivers into manageable down-and-distance situations with guys like Curtis Brinkley, Jackie Battle and Ronnie Brown. And Brown himself may not even play! What a disaster.

    RECAP: I don't really have a feel for this game. I'm going to take the Chargers because they may play for pride after such a terrible loss, but neither team could show up for this contest.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There's no way I'm betting on either of these teams.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
    The Jets were just eliminated from the playoffs, so they could mail this game in.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
    Why would anyone bet on the Jets?
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 80% (34,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Norv Turner is 6-8 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.
  • Philip Rivers is 24-14 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (9-4 ATS as an underdog).
  • Opening Line: Jets -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: .


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Jets 22
    Chargers +2.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 38 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Chargers 27, Jets 17



    Week 16 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Browns at Broncos, Bears at Cardinals, Giants at Ravens, 49ers at Seahawks


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    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks - Late Games



    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 26


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - July 23


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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