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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 20, 2015): 1-1 (-$115)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2015): 1-1 (-$115)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2015): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 20, 2015): 2-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 20, 2015): $0
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 133-138-12, 49.1% (-$2,455)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 46-44-1, 51.1% (-$1,020)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2015 Season Over-Under: 142-119-5, 54.4% ($0)
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$515
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,290-2,116-129, 52.0% (+$7,950)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 740-668-34 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 305-267-13 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 1,822-1,765-51 (50.8%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 33-22 (60.0%)
NFL Picks - Feb. 6
Cowboys: 7-8 (2014: 7-11)
Bears: 6-9 (2014: 8-8)
Bucs: 9-7 (2014: 9-7)
49ers: 13-3 (2014: 8-7)
Eagles: 7-9 (2014: 9-7)
Lions: 11-5 (2014: 8-8)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014: 8-8)
Cardinals: 6-12 (2014: 8-9)
Giants: 9-6 (2014: 5-11)
Packers: 7-11 (2014: 13-4)
Panthers: 6-12 (2014: 8-10)
Rams: 8-7 (2014: 8-8)
Redskins: 12-5 (2014: 8-8)
Vikings: 8-9 (2014: 12-4)
Saints: 7-8 (2014: 6-9)
Seahawks: 6-10 (2014: 10-9)
Bills: 7-6 (2014: 7-9)
Bengals: 7-8 (2014: 6-11)
Colts: 6-8 (2014: 8-10)
Broncos: 9-4 (2014: 8-9)
Dolphins: 8-8 (2014: 10-5)
Browns: 7-8 (2014: 9-5)
Jaguars: 2-13 (2014: 10-6)
Chargers: 10-6 (2014: 7-9)
Jets: 9-6 (2014: 8-8)
Ravens: 7-7 (2014: 10-8)
Texans: 4-13 (2014: 8-7)
Chiefs: 9-9 (2014: 9-6)
Patriots: 12-5 (2014: 10-9)
Steelers: 9-6 (2014: 9-8)
Titans: 5-9 (2014: 8-6)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014: 7-9)
Divisional: 45-47 (2011-14: 177-178)
2x Game Edge: 17-16 (2011-14: 69-81)
2x Psych Edge: 29-28 (2011-14: 121-105)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-40 (2011-14: 176-183)
2x Trend Edge: 32-29 (2011-14: 107-99)
Double Edge: 15-15 (2011-14: 43-46)
Triple Edge: 1-2 (2011-14: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-14: 0-0)
2017 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 5
2016 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 4
2016 NBA Mock Draft - Feb. 2
NFL Free Agents
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 15
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games
Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -6.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Bengals -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Bengals -7.
Sunday, Oct. 7, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 5 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Bengals.
If you've followed this site for a while, you may know that I like to respond to my spam mails. I'm continuing last week's, which was from a woman named Mulyana:
Yes, I'm Steve Urkel. The biggest nerd in television history. If you're not familiar with him, just watch this.
Sure enough, the person pretending to be this Mulyana chick e-mailed me back, as he's a dumb spammer from somewhere in Asia and has no clue who Urkel is. Her message to me said that she loves me but she needs someone to transfer her funds to an American bank. She also sent a picture:
Here was my reply:
By the way, that address that I listed is the actual Winslow residence from Family Matters. It's currently preserved as a historical property. I really hope they get some sort of mail from "Mulyana."
Her next message gave me her bank e-mail and that the depositor was a Dr Dreamad tuazama. I replied:
*** OK, so that's what happened up until last week. Here was Mulyana's latest response: ***
hello dearest one, how is your day, hope all is well with you, Dr dreamad tuazama is my late father who deposited the money in bank before he die. thanks for your love and concern about my situation, please i want you to contact the bank with this information which to before, kindly contact the bank like this.
Many regards to you and your family. I hope you are doing well as I am .Sir; I enquiring some information about my dearest wife fiance Miss seledy benga who is a beneficiary to one late Dr Dreamad benga being her father who was a customer to your esteemed bank According to my fiance Miss seledy benga the late father Dr Dreamad benga has some money in your bank and had provide me with the following information about the father to me.
THIS IS THE DEPOSIT INFORMATION
Ownership code: ISFCO/523/06/2L/2000
Deposit code: ISFCO/01/523/2000
Security code: PAG/ISFCO/523/D-14/2000
ACCOUNT NUMBER.....wt/1002 3703450
SWIFT CODE........ ....... ABFISNDA
code BANQUE.............. K0012
code GUICHET.............. 01208
Depositor: Dr Dreamad tuazama
Beneficiary: Miss mulyana dreamad
And I?m writing this latter to you Mr. Anthony Makati of telephone no. +_____________ for accurate confirmation before knowing my next line of action.
I end here to hear from you soon.
I screwed up - I forgot what her dad's name was - but it looks like Miss Mulyana committed an error as well. Who is "Miss seledy benga?" Did Miss Mulyana forget her name? Perhaps a copy-paste error?
Well, either way, it's time to contact Mr. Anthony Makati!
The phone number's legit, by the way. I looked it up on WhitePages.com, and there's a Steve Urkel who lives in Houston. I wish I could hear that phone call. Sorry, I'm evil.
Here's Waldo Geraldo Faldo's e-mail to Mr. Anthony Makati (from my other e-mail address):
Will Mr. Anthony Makati show allegiance to Steve or Waldo? I can't wait to find out.
MIAMI OFFENSE: How in the world did Ryan Tannehill throw for 431 yards against the Cardinals when he could barely complete a pass against the Jets the week before, even after Darrelle Revis went down with his season-ending injury? Seriously, where did that come from? I guess Tannehill is just being inconsistent like a typical rookie quarterback.
I have to feel for Tannehill though. The Bengals were missing their top three cornerbacks last week, forcing them to start Terence Newman and Pacman Jones alongside their pedestrian safeties. Blaine Gabbert could not take advantage of this, but Tannehill could. Unfortunately for the rookie quarterback, it appears as though Nate Clements, Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick will be back, as they all practiced Wednesday.
Making matters worse for Tannehill, the Bengals, who lead the NFL with 17 sacks, will take advantage of Miami's weak offensive line. The right side of the front, comprised of tackle Jonathan Martin and guard John Jerry, is an abomination and doesn't stand a chance against Cincinnati. Fortunately for the Dolphins, Reggie Bush, who won't be on a pitch count this week, should be able to gash Cincinnati's last-place ground defense (5.4 YPC). That may keep the Bengals' pass-rushers at bay.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: One reason I had four units on the Dolphins last week was because while everyone focused on how Tannehill would find success against Arizona's stout stop unit, I wondered how Kevin Kolb would be able to move the chains versus Miami's elite defense.
The Dolphins rank first against the run. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has predictably struggled to gain good yardage this year, and now he's even losing fumbles for the first time in his career. He won't find any running room against a defense that just limited the Cardinals to 28 rushing yards.
Miami also puts great pressure on the quarterback, ranking 10th in the NFL in sacks (11). Cameron Wake, who is one of the early favorites for Defensive MVP, figures to have a big advantage over mediocre right tackle Andre Smith. Andy Dalton will frequently be under pressure, so he'll have to get rid of the ball quickly. Luckily for him, he has talented weapons to work with. The weak point of Miami's defense is in the secondary, as Richard Marshall is a big liability. Dalton should be able to exploit that.
RECAP: I planned on laying a couple of units with the Dolphins when this spread opened at 5.5, but it has since fallen to 3.5, meaning we have lost all line value. I'm still taking Miami though, as Cincinnati tends to struggle when favored. This will be a close game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There is absolutely no line value with the Dolphins. Small play.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
No one's a believer in the Dolphins yet.
Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 78% (70,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
Dolphins are 14-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.
Dolphins are 6-13 ATS after a loss of 6 or fewer points since 2007.
Bengals are 4-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.
Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.
Opening Total: 44.
Week 5 NFL Pick: Bengals 19, Dolphins 17
Dolphins +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Under 46 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Dolphins 17, Bengals 13
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
Line: Ravens by 6. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Ravens -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Ravens -4.
Sunday, Oct. 7, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 5 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Video of the Week: Ryan, my senior editor, found this video about Replacement Weathermen. This begs the question, what if there were replacements for other occupations? I'll delve into that later.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs never had a chance last week against the Chargers because they turned the ball over too much. Matt Cassel threw three interceptions, while Jamaal Charles fumbled twice. Kansas City won't win any games if it continues to give the ball away at this alarming rate.
Things have a way of evening themselves out in the NFL, so Kansas City's turnover margin will eventually regress to the mean - perhaps starting in this game because the Ravens can't put any pressure on the quarterback whatsoever. The only player who is making life difficult for opposing signal-callers is Haloti Ngata, though it's worth noting that he has a nice matchup in this game. Center Rodney Hudson is out for the second straight week (he's on IR), which means Jeff Allen will have to start at guard again, with Ryan Lilja taking Hudson's spot. Ngata will abuse Allen, but it's the only area where Baltimore will apply pressure.
The Ravens' low sack total is the reason why they struggle mightily against the pass, ranking just 24th against it (7.7 YPA). Cassel could have some success - after all, Brandon Weeden did - while Charles could do some damage on the ground. Baltimore has the No. 4 rush defense in the NFL (3.1 YPC), but Charles is a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the ball. Just ask the Ravens themselves - they surrendered a long touchdown to Charles in a January 2011 playoff matchup.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While the Ravens struggle to get to the quarterback, the Chiefs excel at it. They have two dynamic pass-rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, both of whom have major advantages against Baltimore's mediocre tackles. Kelechi Osemele struggles in pass protection, while an inconsistent Michael Oher commits way too many penalties.
The Ravens will find it difficult to sustain some drives because Joe Flacco will have defenders in his face, but Flacco still will have success on occasion because the Chiefs struggle to stop the pass. Brandon Carr is missed, but the real culprit is Eric Berry, who is inexplicably atrocious in coverage despite being considered a "can't miss" prospect in the 2010 NFL Draft.
Another first-rounder who is struggling for Kansas City is Dontari Poe, who is mediocre against the run and non-existent when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. Meanwhile, Glenn Dorsey could be out again, which means that Baltimore should be able to run the ball easily with Ray Rice. However, as Raven fans know, Cam Cameron often forgets to feed the ball to Rice.
RECAP: Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting the Ravens, but I like the Chiefs for a few reasons:
1. This is an overreaction line. The Ravens were -4 last week, and now they're -6 only because Kansas City turned the ball over a bunch of times against the Chargers. We're getting nice spread value with the host.
2. There are two things of note in terms of the Chiefs being home. First, home underdogs (of less than two touchdowns) coming off a home underdog loss the week before are 39-20 against the spread since 2002.
3. Second, the Chiefs are a solid 7-2 against the spread as home underdogs of six or more points in database history (dating back to 1989). This occurred twice last year, and Kansas City covered on both occasions (against the Steelers and Packers).
4. On the other side of the coin, the Ravens haven't been very good as non-divisional road favorites under John Harbaugh (3-5 ATS; 1-4 in 2011).
5. Baltimore has Dallas and Houston after this game, so it could overlook Kansas City. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will want revenge for that aforementioned postseason loss.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm dropping this to two units. I'm not concerned that more people picked the Ravens than any other team in the LVH Super Contest; that's because the spread they listed was -5. I'm concerned with the Chiefs' injuries. Glenn Dorsey is out, while Brandon Flowers and Derrick Johnson are banged up.
The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
The Ravens have the Cowboys and Texans after this easy victory. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be seeking revenge for a playoff loss in January 2011.
The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
Who would bet on Kansas City right now?
Percentage of money on Baltimore: 82% (60,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
Chiefs are 7-2 ATS as home underdogs of 6+ since 1989.
Chiefs are 24-11 ATS in October since 2002.
Chiefs are 15-27 ATS at home since 2007.
Opening Line: Ravens -4.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Week 5 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 24
Chiefs +6.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Over 47 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Ravens 9, Chiefs 6
Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games
Seahawks at Panthers,
Bears at Jaguars,
Titans at Vikings,
Broncos at Patriots,
Bills at 49ers,
Chargers at Saints,
Texans at Jets