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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


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    JETHRO 11-12-2012 11:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    13     4

    TO THOSE OF YOU WHO MAY HAVE SERVED IN OUR ARMED FORCES AND DEFENDED OUR FREEDOM AND RIGHT TO ENJOY FOOTBALL AND ALL GOOD THINGS- THANK YOU AND GOD BLESS YOU AND YOUR FAMILIES. YOU ARE TRUE HEROES JUST FOR BEING BRAVE ENOUGH TO PUT ON THAT UNIFORM.
    JETHRO 11-12-2012 10:50 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    3     5

    SO THE SYSTEM OF TEAMS LOSING BEFORE THEIR BYE FINALLY CRASHED AND BURNED YESTERDAY WITH MN., SEA., AND TN., ALL POUNDING THEIR OPPONENTS. AND THE ONE YOU'D THINK HAD THE LEAST CHANCE OF HITTING DOES- CINC.
    SEEMS FROM THE POSTS EVERYONE DID OK YESTERDAY. NEED INPUT FOR TONITE. THANKS TO THOSE WHO GAVE US WEATHER UPDATES ON LAST NIGHTS GAMES AS EASY AN UNDER AS BALT WAS AN OVER.
    JETHRO 11-12-2012 10:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    3     4

    FIRST OFF, GREAT JOB THIS WEEK WALT BETWEEN COLLEGE AND PRO. AND 2 ML DOGS!

    LET ME THROW THIS TO THE FORUM- DOESN'T PITTS. USUALLY PLAY WELL ON MNF? ANYONE KNOW THEIR STATS ON THIS. I THINK AFTER LAST NITE THE UNDER IS 21-9 IN THE PRIMETIME GAMES.
    Touchdown for Tommy 11-12-2012 10:39 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.68 (total posts: 8)
    15     15

    The Chiefs have NEVER led in a game all season. Not once...
    andy w 11-12-2012 09:33 am xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    3     4

    I don't like to give advice really, and I'm not doing so here. Just laying out some facts.

    Steelers have covered each of their last 3 games, while KC has not covered since their bye.

    Good luck, whatever you choose.
    Antdogz 11-12-2012 07:58 am xxx.xxx.xxx.185 (total posts: 27)
    4     4

    Got a 550 3 team parlay going....

    Houston/ under/ open

    Any suggestions??
    @ Trent 11-12-2012 07:55 am xxx.xxx.xxx.231 (total posts: 1)
    13     5

    Does anyone think the Steelers will crush the Chiefs by 13.5?????
    It's my last pick on a 7 team parlay..

    Please and thx for the feedback

    @Trent: You should consider hedging the bet by working out what half the winnings would be and bet the Steelers -13.5 so that you win that amount either way. This would guarantee you a profit 50% of your parlay bet if it won.

    FWIW, I think the Chiefs are the right side however I would strongly recommend doing this.
    Ivar 11-12-2012 07:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.69 (total posts: 27)
    4     4

    Steady gains on Thursday, early games, and late games. Not a stellar week, but definitely a solid one. +$580 on the week, +$1697 on the year. MNF pick on my blog:
    http://ivarstake.blogspot.com/2012/11/nfl-picks-week-10.html
    Yo 11-12-2012 03:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    7     6

    Steelers or Chiefs genius?
    theguru66 11-12-2012 02:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    4     11

    The granny train is STILL chugging along as once again I went 3-2 today in the NFL. Lots of strange story lines and scores today but that's another story for another day, let's get to the quick recap:

    Is it safe to say now that the Chargers aren't that good of a football team? You not impressing anyone with losses to the Browns and the Bucs (who are also average). This game was a high quality cap, both teams are average and the Bucs were playing well. Plus they had home field. I didn't think they'd win by 10 but at the very least it would have pushed. This game was a perfect example of line value. 1-0

    Sorry about the Dolphins play, terrible cap. Someone wrote on this thread that the Dolphins shouldn't be favored by 6 over any team and they were right. Look, the blow out was a fluke and if they played again right now it would be much closer but getting 6 was the right side one way or the other. That is to many points vs. a team like the Dolphins. 1-1

    The Atlanta game killed me. Such is gambling. Atlanta could have easily won and covered this game and honestly they probably should. They settled for a FG down on the goal line before the last down and goal series and choked then to. I told a friend of mine that I didn't think they'd get in after Douglas couldn't get to the goal line and then almost fumbled. Had this game in a parlay believe it or not and of course I had Denver and Tampa as the other plays. UGH! 1-2

    "Seattle has one of the best home field's in football and the Jets couldn't score on a high school cheerleader. I am predicting that the Jets score a grand total of 3 points but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they score none. I'm serious. In fact I'm going to go 24-3. Lay the 6."
    Jets only put up points because of a defensive TD. Final 28-7, 9 out of 10 on the cap meter. 2-2.

    " Anyway, there is going to be a lot of turnovers and sacks and fumbles and....POINTS! I wouldn't be surprised if both teams hit 30 but I have it at 30-27. Either way, it soars over."
    Had me worried there when it was 10-7 at half but this was a 8 of 10 on the cap meter. 3-2

    Games that I should have seen include Denver which was my "last play out" on the thread and the Ravens who never lose at home. Still 3-2 and slowwwwwly moving towards 10 over at 34-27-3.

    Hope everyone had a good day today and hope you enjoyed the scenic ride on the granny train. I'll be back in a bit for a Monday play.
    theguru66 11-12-2012 02:16 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    3     3

    @betheljohnsonshands

    Or what if you took the OVER? Either way that was just a brutal way to end the game. I agree.
    Trent 11-12-2012 01:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    6     6

    Does anyone think the Steelers will crush the Chiefs by 13.5?????
    It's my last pick on a 7 team parlay..

    Please and thx for the feedback
    PureLock 11-12-2012 01:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    3     4

    @Ivar, I play real bookie bro, not online. Oh, well, I should look at the facking weather before I play. But I just lost my small parley, I hit biggest bet of the week. Hope I hit again MNF. See all you tomorrow
    betheljohnsonshands 11-12-2012 12:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx.231 (total posts: 11)
    4     4

    Did anyone have the Under 192 in the Sacramento @ LAL game that just ended? I feel for you. I took the Lakers -8.5 so I got a cover, but that was cruel.
    madturk 11-12-2012 12:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    4     4

    proud of my beers played a tough game, would have like to seen cutler? I HAD HOU+ & UNDER


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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