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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    Virgin X 11-12-2012 06:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 4)
    6     5

    Had a great weekend thanks to Walt!Glad you do what you do!Think Guru66 is just as good!!Really liked your write up and im with you on the Nation.I can see tonites total pushing just add to the already strange weekend.Tie game really!Gut feelin tells me Steelers lite it up!

    @leech really like Under on Phenix/den.GLTA!
    GURBALL 11-12-2012 06:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.145 (total posts: 2)
    15     7

    THIS GAME DOESN'T MEAN SHIIIT TO PITT. AFTER THIS GAME THEY HAVE 3 DIVISION GAMES . I KNOW THE CHIEFS ARE CRAP GARBAGE AND STR8 SORRY BUT AGAIN THIS IS THE NFL MNF GAME. COULD BE WRONG BUT IM UP FOR THE WEEK AND WIN OR LOSE IM UP...


    (KC +13) 25 UNITS

    GOIN 70 units or 20 units THIS WEEK. IT WAS A GREAT WEEKEND MONEY WISE NOT TO MENTION UP 45 FROM GAMBLING... USUALLY ID ONLY PUT 5-10 units on this play so don't go cray but
    Ima gambler hahahha to the bank either way!!

    GLTA!
    JETHRO 11-12-2012 06:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    3     4

    NBA:
    2 UNITS: CHICAGO -3
    DENVER -4.5
    DALLAS -7
    MN/DAL. OVER 191.5

    1 UNIT: MILW. +4
    ATL. +3
    MILW/PHIL UNDER 190.5
    OKC/DET UNDER 195
    ChoMp 11-12-2012 06:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.174 (total posts: 1)
    7     3

    Chicago bulls
    Utah jazz
    To the bank 11-12-2012 05:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.223 (total posts: 17)
    8     4

    I'd be concerned takin the steelers tonight as "easy money." Vegas slaughtered the public this weekend so you know everyone is gonna try and make up for their loses on tonight's game. don't be surprised with a 21-10 final and a narrow chiefs cover
    Pick leech 11-12-2012 05:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 40)
    3     8

    I think I'm gonna play a Steeler slaughter and the under (31-3).

    Any of you NBA experts have a game or 2 to recommend to help a degenerate gambler fill out a parlay? Any help would be appreciated and I won't hold it against you if you miss it.

    Good luck tonight.
    theguru66 11-12-2012 05:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    4     8

    @zebra

    Game is in Pittsburgh
    bfs 11-12-2012 05:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 2)
    4     6

    I understand Todd Haley maybe wanting to crush his former team. However, Romeo Crennel was Haley's Defensive Coordinator for a season and will more than likely know his tendencies also. I wouldn't put too much stock in it, seems like a wash to me.
    ZEBRA 11-12-2012 04:58 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.106 (total posts: 16)
    3     8

    Keep it up Walt.............love the 3/4 unit plays this season.

    Also pretty solid in NCAA

    Looking toward PIT and under play. Maybe UNDER KC total. In Yeras past it was a no brainer taking double digits in KC....such a solid home field advantage...NOT THIS SEASON though

    chuckster 11-12-2012 04:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    3     5

    Okay, three team 10 point teaser with Pittsburgh -2.5, two open spots. GLTA.
    chuckster 11-12-2012 04:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     5

    Got first two spots of my NBA 3 tm. eight point teaser last night. Filling third spot with OK City +1.5 tonight. Congrats to all winners and GLTA.
    Mark D 11-12-2012 04:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.64 (total posts: 1)
    17     5

    Low 40's and showers, could be a good night for the under
    theguru66 11-12-2012 04:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    127     90

    Good afternoon passengers, I have a few minutes so I'll just do this now before it gets busy. 34-27-3 and we're inching towards 10 over. Let's get to 8 tonight shall we?

    Let's start by saying that as you know, I'm a Steelers fan but believe it or not that helps me handicap them. I am gonna use that tonight as I feel this is a perfect spot for a Steelers blow out. Listen, the Steelers don't play blow out football but tonight I feel that one factor will play a huge factor. That factor is Todd Haley. He was fired by the Chiefs and has a team now that can do some major damage. Not to mention their playing well AND the love playing on Monday Night Football. He is gonna want to crush this team. The Chiefs offense is horrible and I don't see them scoring much. This will probably be a close game early but the Steelers should eventually pull away. This is how I see this game in a short perspective, if the Chiefs score first or lead for the first time all season they might cover but if the Steelers score early and often like 10-0 or 14-0 the Chiefs will go right to sleep. I think the latter is more likely to happen, 33-7 final.

    This line is currently down to 12 1/2, but even at 13 I like it. If you can get that half a point get it.

    Good Luck everyone, tickets please.
    DreDay 11-12-2012 03:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 1)
    5     7

    Heat Heat Heat play it
    GURUBALL 11-12-2012 03:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 6)
    13     6

    GOOD TO SEE FOLKS WINNING THIS WEEK!! CONGRATS ALL AND GOOD SHIIIT!! LOOKS LIKE IM BACK TO ABOUT 100 UNITS FOR THE YEAR. CAN'T COMPLAIN .. BRB WID FINAL PLAYS YEEEEEE


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 28


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


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    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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