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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


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    madturk 11-12-2012 07:58 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    2     4

    if u want the over i think you should wait till game time you might get 39 kc + 13 might go up to im waiting for the hook
    madturk 11-12-2012 07:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    4     3

    i got the over 39.5 thursday i bet under 42 trying to middle da man
    393 11-12-2012 07:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 6)
    3     3

    NBA
    10 unit:704 Philadelphia -4
    393 11-12-2012 07:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 6)
    5     4

    10 unit: K.C + 13
    10 unit: K.C. under 40.5
    5 unit parlay: K.C. + 13 and under 40.5


    1st half.
    5 unit: under 20 K.C
    aztek25 11-12-2012 07:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.73 (total posts: 1)
    4     3

    @guru

    How about Dallas -7 vs timberwolves??
    ProPickEm 11-12-2012 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    4     6

    Take KC +13 and Over 40.5


    PRO PICK EM-------

    ProPickEm 11-12-2012 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    5     7

    Take KC +13 and Over 40.5


    PRO PICK EM-------

    theguru66 11-12-2012 07:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    4     6

    Already posted my NFL play tonight now let's finally get the NBA train out of the station. 11-11 is horrible and that has to improve as I usually have a good feel on the Association. Like I've said in the past, next to football it is the next easiest sport to cap. Obviously that hasn't been the case so far yet this season but hey it can all start tonight...

    7:05; Sixers are hosting the Bucks tonight and Philly has been on a nice little run lately, winning three in a row, all on the road. Their home tonight and I think they'll win and cover against the Bucks. Milwaukee is a strong road team but I think Philly has finally realized that defense wins games. They should be able to clamp down on the Bucks and pull away late in the second half. This game reminds me of when the 6ers played Denver early in he year at home and the nuggets couldnt get anything going offensively. Same concept, 94-85.

    8:05; Bulls hosting Boston and both of these teams are 1-5 ATS this year. So this is a gut game and my gut is telling me the Bulls win. The Bulls are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 times their playing a fourth consecutive home game and have beaten Boston in Chi town 4 straight times. 95-88.

    8:05; can't see Miami losing two in a row and how is Houston going to stop the Heat from scoring? Houston is just out matched and out motivated in his game. Heat by 10.

    9:05; one of he highest numbers I've seen in a while at 203 but I still think the Nuggets Suns game goes over. The Nuggets will not be stopped by the Suns and I'm seeing over 115 from them tonight. Denver's D isn't world beaters so I think the Suns will get theirs as well. I see something like 116-110.

    Monday's NBA plays:

    76ers -4
    Bulls -2 1/2
    Miami -5
    Nuggets/Suns over 203

    Good Luck tonight everyone! Stand clear of the closing doors.
    Sportstradamus 11-12-2012 07:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 1)
    9     8

    Pitt is notorious for not covering large spreads when they are under the national spotlight. Also, the rain that hit us in Chicago will be there for the game which will make for a tough game to put up major points. KC can't on a sunny day. I am saying 23-14 Steelers.

    Take KC and the points and ride the under.

    I also like OKC -6.5, Heat -5(bought down .5), and 76ers rolling against the bucks.

    Good luck!
    andy w 11-12-2012 07:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    9     4

    @The most interesting man in the world

    I agree with you. That's why PIT will win tonight.

    IMO, it says bupkis about PIT covering the spread.

    PS: I like your beer.
    GURUBALL 11-12-2012 06:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.145 (total posts: 2)
    13     5

    We will see....

    Still 49er nation all dam day hahah wassup with that tie
    Shaddddy!
    Wake up 11-12-2012 06:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    6     8

    I bet Even Romeo bet 100 units on the Steelers + 14
    The most interesting man in the world 11-12-2012 06:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    5     6

    & this game means Alot to the Steelers,ranking wise, & nothing To Romeo~ one of the worst coaches ever.
    Not even a Steeler Fan. 11-12-2012 06:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    30     12

    Everybody should know, & I mean everybody should know, the Chiefs are far worse than the Jets, & far worse than the Jaguars.
    Ben will absolutely put on a show tonight, a gazillion Big Unit Randy Johnson's on the Steelers.. C'mon man...!
    andy w 11-12-2012 06:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    13     9

    Tonight's game, the way I see it.

    KC will have 5 or 6 trips to the redzone.
    Since they are KC, this will translate to 3 FGs for 9 points.

    They could conceivably break a KO return or a run from scrimmage for 7, so they should tip out at 16 max.

    So PIT would need 28 points to cover in the *worst-case* scenario. This is not an issue provided they don't take their foot off the gas.

    And this is the main problem I've had with PIT in years past.

    Keep in mind, I'm not talking backdoor cover here .. just PIT screwing over the public.

    I'm playing PIT tonight, but I'd be lying if I said I no concerns.


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 28


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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