NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
Lions 16, Bills 6

---

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 4.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Colts 17, Bengals 13

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Packers by 3.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Packers 20, Chiefs 19

---

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 3.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.

Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Eagles 24, Jets 14

---

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Line: Panthers by 2.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Steelers 33, Panthers 17

---

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 3.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.

Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Titans 32, Saints 9

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   Blair 01-01-2012 09:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193) 20     11 @WalterSucks: Giants/Cowboys line opened at -1 and that's when I put my 5 Units on it! I hop on my games early, not last minute! Calling someone a dumbs when you obviously don't watch the lines is uncalled for! Question 01-01-2012 09:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.196 (total posts: 2) 13     10 Curious...what number did you guys get for the Titans/Texans game? Something fishy going on with my guy. I would REALLY appreciate it if you'd post what you got on that one. I got them at +1....ALLEDGEDLY!! Lol! Mike 01-01-2012 09:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.124 (total posts: 1) 11     10 Are you going to parlay them Guru??? Guruball 01-01-2012 09:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx62.7 (total posts: 46) 16     15 5-6 for today but still up for the day. Shouldnt have went against Walters top plays... All good.. Winners tonight for sure... PLAYS OF THE DAY OVER 48 25 units NYG -3 15 units GLTA! #Guruball#49er Waltersucks 01-01-2012 09:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.41 (total posts: 9) 65     38 Just put 1 u on gmen -3 Waltersucks 01-01-2012 09:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.41 (total posts: 9) 84     284 Cainer if it's a real site f-ing update it and if you talked to me like that face to face I would smack you dude you never fight in your life like I said blairhattonpick got the line at -1 f-ing dumb a s s it's -3 FUqer 01-01-2012 09:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.94 (total posts: 63) 14     12 only one team lost out of the top 7 publicly backed teams.. I picked the Giants in this one, but you almost have to go with the Cowboys. Out of the few years I have been tracking, I have never seen a week, where only one team out of the top 7 publicly backed teams covered for vegas Scott Farkus 01-01-2012 08:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.205 (total posts: 1) 10     12 Hey Phil Elliott if you would have waited till kickoff you would have gotten HOU @ +1.5 & the missed 2pt would have been great. Watch the way the line is going & use it next time! B 01-01-2012 08:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 1) 15     11 Cowboys 5 units , mark it down. Bigleftygolfer 01-01-2012 08:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.195 (total posts: 37) 12     8 Steelers have two turnovers in a row with 8 minutes left it was like they were playing not to cover! The more I watch the games the more I think the fix is in. I won three units with sd but lost three plus the vig with Pittsburgh seems like horrible teams look like super bowl caliber teams this week during the fourth quarter. I.e. rams and browns! Zack 01-01-2012 08:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.139 (total posts: 16) 10     51 So who do y'all got tonight fellas? Cainer 01-01-2012 08:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.38 (total posts: 2) 35     43 Hey Waltersucks, you do know that the lines move right? A few sites I look at had the Giants -1 earlier in the week. And learn to spell stupid before you call someone one. Idiot... waltersucks 01-01-2012 06:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77) 44     48 blairhattonpicks.com pick of the week gaints -1 stuiped the gaints are -3 this guys makes his lines up Chad 01-01-2012 05:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.77 (total posts: 82) 19     16 Lions knocked out a 9 team teaser for me. How do you let a backup QB destroy your defense like that? You've got to be %(&*$#%* kidding me Anyone have Gary Kubiaks Address?? 01-01-2012 05:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.237 (total posts: 1) 11     16 Anyone? Pages: 1 2 ...989 990 991 992993 994 995 ...1475 1476

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 19


Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 16


2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 15


2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


NFL Picks - Feb. 3

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)