NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
Lions 16, Bills 6

---

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 4.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Colts 17, Bengals 13

---

Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Packers by 3.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Packers 20, Chiefs 19

---

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 3.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.

Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Eagles 24, Jets 14

---

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Line: Panthers by 2.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Steelers 33, Panthers 17

---

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 3.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.

Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Titans 32, Saints 9

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   Newbie2011 05-01-2012 02:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 171) 7     7 Newbie's Tuesday MLB pick: Washington National. If juice is too high, then parley it with Chicago White Sox and/or San Francisco Giants. Good luck! Awesome-O 05-01-2012 01:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.75 (total posts: 146) 7     6 That's right...we're all here to share and win. It aint a competition! I ended up chasing with the Brewers ML over Padres and broke even on the day. Phew! Tomorrow I'm leaning towards a lot of games...I need help to narrow it down a bit: Diamondbacks ML over Nats (Zimmerman is on fire but the backs have more bats IMO) Indians ML over White Sox Dodgers ML over Rockies Mets ML over Astros Royals/Tiger over ??? (Line not out yet) Gimme some thoughts over here...you agree, disagree? Any other games you like a bit more? BeefMeatloaf 04-30-2012 11:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 38) 27     8 I'm with the rest of you, gang. It's awesome to hear all the analysis theguru66 has to offer. You need not blindly take his picks, but it's great to get the gears grinding. You notice that when Guru's picks aligned with someone else's they were solid. It's a shame that so many people bash him. He's simply stating his leans on games. It's disgusting when he, or anyone, is maimed for not picking all winners. That's why Vegas has the dough! It's sad when I'm bashed for posting BHPicks' free play and it goes wrong (Knicks +9). If you took it and lost, then I'm sorry, I did too, but no reason to come on here and start an argument. As they say, "Arguing on the internet is like running in the Special Olympics, even if you win, you're still retarded." Anyways. No way theguru66 is gone for good. And if I were a betting man (har har), then I'd bet he returns sooner than later. Thanks to all those who post their plays and reasoning, it only helps us all - we're all here to try and win some money. That's enough from me now, back tomorrow with the free pick and maybe one of my own. kvngr 04-30-2012 11:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.59 (total posts: 14) 21     11 @@born kiss off!I never read any of your pics.But I'm sure you were about 65% or better with your caps.Thanks for sharing like at least Guru did.I for one appreciated the mans time,effort and analysis. SRQ77 04-30-2012 11:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.225 (total posts: 11) 21     6 GURU!!! I know your 500 avg as of late isnt anywhere near where you want to be but everything considered youve had an awesome season and we ALL appreciate,respect and look fwd to your analysis! Hope your not thinking otherwise, your the best on this board by far. I'm confident things are going to change soon! Tired of seeing Bh pics claim how perfect they are after the fact, if they were that good they'd be extremely wealthy and not be concerned about bragging on this site. Nuff said about them. Keep Your pics coming and lets get things Rooooooooooooling once again!! @born 04-30-2012 10:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.176 (total posts: 5) 17     25 Hope Guru is ok but his complaining about bad beats was getting annoying. If a hockey game goes to OT, you're no closer to a win/loss than when the game started. Its basically 50/50 again. And this nba season was all about schedule, so rather than complaining about a team or teams failing in the 4th quarter maybe he should have done a better job of capping and noticed that team or teams had played a lot of games which is why they ran out of gas in the 4th Awesome-O 04-30-2012 07:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx52.8 (total posts: 31) 15     8 OK thanks Born2...you've convinced me! born2gamble 04-30-2012 07:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.32 (total posts: 9) 9     17 Over 188 is the play between the pacers and magic. Without Howard the magic have no ability to protect the rim and their rebounding suffers, but it dosent hurt them that much offensively. Between Richardson, Turkoglu Ryam and Reddick they have plenty of 3 point shooters ay thier disposal. Indiana couldn't buy a bucket in game 1 shooting only 34% from the field and only managing 77 points,which is surprising considering they had topped 100 points in 9 of thier previous 10 games. Teams dontoften shoot poorly twice in a row at home, especially in the playoffs. Over 188 in the play here...putting 5 units on it! born2gamble 04-30-2012 06:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.32 (total posts: 9) 26     11 Guru, have you given up on us? Awesome-O 04-30-2012 06:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx52.8 (total posts: 31) 16     17 I'm kinda feelin the under 188 in the Pacers game... kvngr 04-30-2012 06:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.59 (total posts: 14) 11     12 Wheres Guru? As someone who's been doing this a long time my gut instinct was that he was due to get hot around play-off time..... anyways I just played Pacers first half (-5) then parlayed that with OKC first half ML for +186 also Rangers(ML)with Kings(PL)for+135 also Jays/Sox under 9 Anyways good luck to all!!!! Newbie2011 04-30-2012 06:11 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.195 (total posts: 1) 6     6 I think there are better plays than Red Sox ML. I like Red Sox over, Tigers, and Rays more myself. But maybe BH has inside info that gives Red Sox and edge. arnel 04-30-2012 05:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.160 (total posts: 3) 15     5 Hmmm.. Oakland has a better road record than boston has a home record. I'm sure that plaays a factor. Awesome-O 04-30-2012 05:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx52.8 (total posts: 31) 6     11 I think that's a smart bet. Maybe parlay Boston with the Rays or the Tigers or something. BeefMeatloaf 04-30-2012 05:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 66) 16     8 BHPicks' freebie today: Red Sox (-150) hosting the A's. Boston averaging 5.5 runs/game. Oakland averaging 2.9 runs/game. Buchholz 5-0 L5 starts as a home favorite. Thoughts? Pages: 1 2 ...988 989 990 991992 993 994 ...1805 1806

NFL Picks - Dec. 12


2014 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11


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Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 6


2014 NBA Mock Draft - Nov. 21


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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