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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


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    theguru66 11-14-2012 01:51 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    3     3

    @PureLock

    Ouch, I was just about to congratulate you on a great day and Green hit that dagger, that was stone cold man. Great call on the Blazers though.
    theguru66 11-14-2012 01:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    26     17

    Sorry Passengers got caught up today and couldn't post. Had a decent day in college as I liked Duke (that line was so fishy, why was Kentucky underdog's in that game, if I asked anyone before they saw the line how many should Kentucky be favored by no one would have said they were getting points so that is an automatic sharp play) and BYU would got out to a big lead and held on to cover by 3. However, truth be told, the NBA is kicking my a$$.

    @GURUball

    There NBA and NFL are similar in that they have about the same number of teams in each therefore it's a microcosm of every NFL Sunday. Yes there are more games to cap but if the NFL played everyday like the NBA does wouldn't you cap it? Yes it takes time just like the NFL but since it happens everyday there is more room for error. I think you'd be good at it but I still wish you posted some analysis.

    @BigDaddyVladdy

    Welcome back first of all and I to was all over the Pacers tonight so don't feel bad.

    I still have the Spurs in a tight one out west but I took the Nets (covered) and the over in the Wizards game (I know what was I thinking?) with the aforementioned Pacers. So I'm either going to be 1-3 or 2-2 which stinks! Don't fade me just yet cause when the train gets rolling it's a fun ride. So without those posted picks and with last night's debacle I remain at 12-14. I'll be back tomorrow and as always I hope everyone did well tonight!
    GB Paul 11-13-2012 10:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.46 (total posts: 8)
    12     20

    p.s. The Bears still suck!
    GB Paul 11-13-2012 10:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.46 (total posts: 8)
    5     5

    RGIII (v. PHI)or
    Palmer (v. NO)
    PureLock 11-13-2012 10:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.29 (total posts: 98)
    15     11

    Hello Folks,

    For the NBA tonight:

    Portland at Sacramento: 10:00PM

    TOP PLAY: Traiblazers(+2.5) for 20 units

    San Antonia at L.A.Lakers: 10:30PM

    TOP PLAY: Lakers(pk) for 20 units

    As Alway, GLTA
    GURUBALL 11-13-2012 09:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.15 (total posts: 6)
    4     3

    And that's why I don't bet NBA. Hahah ima stick to NFL AND CFL. Tooo many fucccckin games to cap in NBA.
    RaW 11-13-2012 08:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.165 (total posts: 3)
    11     3

    Anyone else loving teasers this week? I'm seeing GB,Atl,Pats and a few more great teasers.
    GURUBALL 11-13-2012 07:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    5     4

    LOL @The most ballerish man in the world...SOMETHIN LIKE THAT, PRETTY CLOSE HAHAH

    @JETHRO THANKS BRO.... LETS GET IT AGAIN NEXT WEEK!

    I AM NOT AN NBA GAMBLER BUT I AM PUTTING 5 UNITS ON THE WIZARDS, WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS HA


    GLTA!
    chuckster 11-13-2012 05:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    312     38

    Wouldn't Trust Cutler in a big game if he told me..... "Water is wet."
    Dorkbeavis 11-13-2012 04:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.246 (total posts: 6)
    4     17

    Again, I only lost one game out of four on Sunday. And it cost me a lot. Because the Mighty Kittens, I mean, the Bears, had ZERO offense. What a joke. How has this team won seven games. I haven't watched them at all this season, except for the highlights. And they looked really tough. Every bet going forward is going to be against the Mighty Kittens. Good defense, but the offense is junior varsity. Bye, bye Kittens, no Super Bowl this year.
    Dorkbeavis 11-13-2012 04:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.246 (total posts: 6)
    20     4

    "Bills are 13-8 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999."

    I like to review the stats that might help me make an informed decision. But what the hell is this stat?? How could this possibly have any affect on the next game for the Bills?? It's like, "The Bills are 13-8 after at least 10 players had colonoscopies the week before." (That reminds me, I need to have one.)

    It's good to dig deep, but not this deep! (Pun intended)
    the answer 11-13-2012 04:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 7)
    6     4

    KU/Mich St. Over 130 - lock it in.
    chuckster 11-13-2012 03:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    2     3

    @BD/V: Again agree completely. On Walts NBA site, I posted the Pacers as well for a eight point teaser -1.5. Also put in that same teaser New York +1.5, with one open spot at the moment. Leaning real heavy towards teasing the Total in that Knicks game Up and going Under..for that final third spot. GLTA.
    BigDaddyVladdy 11-13-2012 02:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx24.6 (total posts: 158)
    14     2

    Been traveling a bit lately, and haven't had time to post over here... Finally back this week for about a week or so, and taking off to cancun for a long deserved vacation.

    In any case, i have an NBA game that realyl stands out today.. Paceers -8 vs Toronto. Toronto is banged up as is, with lowry, fields, and anderson missing the game, and they just played a triple over time game last night. I doubt they'll have the legs to keep up with Pacers in the 2nd half of the game. Hate taking big favorites, but I think this is a great play.

    Pacers -8

    Good luck to everyone,
    BDV
    drew 11-13-2012 02:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.95 (total posts: 1)
    3     8

    please go back to the old way thank you


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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