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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    chuckster 11-14-2012 02:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     4

    Completed my NBA teaser play: here it is: 76ers minus a half, Dallas Pick, Indiana / Mill game Under 196.5. GLTA.
    JMEB 11-14-2012 02:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.91 (total posts: 1)
    8     6

    Ryan & J.Jones for RG3,Witten & Nicks

    Thumbs up for Keeping R&J.Jones and Thumbs down for the other 3. Thx!
    BigDaddyVladdy 11-14-2012 02:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx24.6 (total posts: 158)
    4     5

    ***I meant to say, clippers will be pumped for miami just like they were for San Antonio a couple of days back (not miami).
    BigDaddyVladdy 11-14-2012 02:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx24.6 (total posts: 158)
    5     6

    @theguru66 - thanks bro! That was a weird game last night, pathetic effort by the pacers vs toronto.. one of my friends lost a bunch of money on parlays where everything hit, and he had pacers ML as the only thing that missed - that's who i feel bad for!!

    I like a couple of plays for today:
    Atlanta +2 - they are simply a much better team than GS, and GS will have bogut out for a week or two now. I think Atlanta ML for a light positive payout is the way to go.

    As a laker fan it pains me to say this, but i really like the clippers tonight. Miami is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers. Clippers will be pumped for this game, just like they were for miami, and are one of the few teams in the nba that can run with miami. I think you can get +1 in some books on the clipps, but I am looking at an outright victory.

    Atlanta Hawks +2 (or Moneyline).
    Clippers +1 (or pick, whatever your book has).

    Good luck to all,
    BDV
    Kris 11-14-2012 02:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.66 (total posts: 1)
    17     9

    Wake up Walter...
    GURUBALL 11-14-2012 02:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    6     4

    IM WELL AWARE OF THE NBA GUYS, THATS WHY I DON'T BET NBA. BUT YEA IM TAKING A LOOK AT THIS WEEKS GAMES AND MAKING SURE I DON'T GET ONE LOSS THIS WEEK HAHA . ILL BE BACK WITH MY PICKS LATER, SO FAR FOR TONIGHT CFB GAMES I LIKE BOTH FAVORITES, WHICH IS A PROBLEM DURING THE WEEK BECAUSE DOGS USUALLY WIN EVERY TIME DURING THE WEEK. SO WE'LL SEE WHAT I COME UP WITH..

    LETS FUCCCKIN GO! WE HAVE SOME DOUGH TO COLLECT...

    LATER SKATERS....
    Sambo 11-14-2012 02:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.50 (total posts: 1)
    77     6

    Get the picks done please for the week...you take way too long.
    chuckster 11-14-2012 01:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     6

    So far, I have 76ers minus a half, with two open spots in a eight point 3 team teaser. GLTA.
    Grumpy Old Man 11-14-2012 01:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.20 (total posts: 24)
    5     5

    BTW, @guru66, thanks for your input this season. It's been a struggle, but it almost always is. As long as you finish on the plus side of the season, it's a win. I recall some young whippersnapper questioning how it could be a succesful season with only a few units over even...these kids. I suppose when you've been in this long enough, you realize a few units over even is not an easy thing to do. So, keep up the good work.

    For all the ladies on this board, please rethink spending your time gambling. You could spend that time far better in staying thin and pretty - I kid (but not really).
    Grumpy Old Man 11-14-2012 01:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.20 (total posts: 24)
    5     8

    Gentleman (and possibly some ladies):

    Take the Steelers at home +3. Yes, I know, Big Ben is out. Steelers will run, run, and run. Ravens will have a difficult time stopping the run. And, for sure, the Steelers defense will step up. And for all you Ravens fans, we already know what the Ravens are about on the road - something dysfunctional on offense (I can't quite figure it out).

    In sum, Steelers will play good defense (against a team that struggles on offense on the road) and ball control offense (against a team that struggles against the run). I won't be surprised if Steelers win this game outright.

    BTW, I'm not a fan of either team, but I live close to Baltimore. Last week's victory has the town irrationally confident about the Steelers game.

    -Grumpy Old Man
    chuckster 11-14-2012 12:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    5     5

    @theguru66: Wow! Indeed! Had the Pacers -1.5 at Home against a tired, injured, weak Toronto ball club, yep, Toronto scores 5 friggin points in the fourth quarter and WINS by 2!!! Of course my two other plays came in easily, Knicks +1.5 and Knicks/Orlando Under 196. Serves me right, broke one of my capping rules: Never take a losing squad when they are Giving points....no matter who they are playing. That little reminder cost me coin last night. Congrats to all winners, GLTA. Back in a while with some NBA picks for tonight.
    PureLock 11-14-2012 06:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    7     22

    @theguru66, that hurt man, Danny Green got that shot in cost me 40 units man. Oh well, I end up just lost the juice. But another side of this, better then lost all. Anyway, I be back tonight folks, so many games going on tonight. College FB, Basketball, and NBA. I hope I got some TOP PLAY for you guys. Later all.
    theguru66 11-14-2012 04:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    8     3

    @eddycash

    I'm not disagreeing but it can still be capped IMO. Just because their less valued doesn't mean that you can't use that knowledge in your cap. In fact I've had some pretty good success (this year so far not included) in the NBA. Obviously not football but still fun to wager on.
    eddycash 11-14-2012 02:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx70.2 (total posts: 1)
    17     19

    The nba games are not as important as nfl games, because there are only 16 games in the nfl..each games is valued more. In the nba, there is more room for games to be fixed or for teams to play soft. Just like in mlb, the nba has too many games in the regular season.
    theguru66 11-14-2012 02:21 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    21     18

    insane stat of the night, the Raptors scored FIVE points in the ENTIRE fourth quarter in tonight's game




    and STILL won!

    WOW


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 28


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
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    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
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    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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