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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    @callmethan 02-23-2013 02:41 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.86 (total posts: 59)
    4     2

    REEEEEALLY wish you would post some races on Bovada
    BHPicks 02-23-2013 02:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 26)
    2     4

    We are on a GREAT run here! We have gone 11-3 the past 6 days and that included 3 CLEAN SWEEPS of those 6 nights! We're on a 6 day streak and were ready to keep it rollin tonight. If you haven't been joining us on this amazing run, then tonight is the night!

    March Madness Contest:

    It's that time of year again for our annual March Madness Tourney Pick'Em Contest! The winner of our Tourney Pick'Em Contest will receive a FREE 7 Day Premium Pick Pass. Go to: http://y.ahoo.it/z06bcyRa to sign up NOW!
    callmethan 02-23-2013 12:45 am xxx.xxx.xxx.205 (total posts: 13)
    9     2

    Basically "GOLDSTORM" Hit and O really hope someone was with me
    callmethan 02-23-2013 12:41 am xxx.xxx.xxx.205 (total posts: 13)
    4     2

    Okay... I know I have posted BIG TIPS but I have also posted small bets.

    So anyone of you following my posta know when to go BIG. I re assured anyone following that IF I GO BIG AND HAVE A BIGGG TIP, I will let you know.


    LETS MAKE SOME DOE

    Speedy 02-22-2013 11:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.55 (total posts: 3)
    2     2

    Prop bet for the laker blazers game....Kobe over 7.5 assists...little price at -135 but Kobe HAS changed his game to facilitator...could cover by the end of the 3rd qtr.

    Over 202 lakers blazers...KObe is passing the ball when double teamed and howard is lookng to post up...the blazers defense hasn't been great and they have the legs to run on the lakers...

    gl playas
    BigDaddyVladdy 02-22-2013 08:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx24.6 (total posts: 55)
    3     2

    What's going on everyone!
    Haven't posted here in a few weeks, was traveling for work, and did a little mini vacation in vegas. Glad to see big time bro still fingering his friends on a friday :)

    I am rolling hard with butler today, they are a quality team, and shoudln't have any letdowns.

    There is a game in college bball that i like tomorrow - and that's creighton +pts. They'll probably be a 4 point dog, and i will def be taking + pts, if not a ML wager. They have some good road victories this year against wisconsin, asu, Missouri, S. Illinois, while St Mary's hasn't really beat anyone of quality.

    That's all i got!

    Good luck everyone,
    BDV
    BIG TIME BRO!!! 02-22-2013 05:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.153 (total posts: 3)
    6     2

    FINGER-A-FRIEND FRIDAY

    1. BUTLER BULLDOGS -3 (the DOGS have been here before and need this game agaibst STL for 1st place in conference. They got handled rather easily the 1st go around by STL. I expect a different result as they get revenge at HOME tonight in a BIG TIME matchup 64-57 BUTLER)

    2. BLAZERS/LA LAKERS OVER 203 (if the LAKERS can drop 113 on BOSTON, they should be able to flirt with 120 against PORTLAND. I am not prepared to give more than -9.5 until they prove themselves. Obviously PORTLAND can score But their D has benn awful. 7 of last 8 BLAZER games have went OVER And 4 of last 5 against the LAKERS)

    3. RAPTORS +2 (they just handled NY at MSG before the break and despite a minor setback against the GRIZZ, the RAPS are playing solid. Going 5-1 SU in their last 6. NY is strugglin going 1-4 in thier last 5. 0-5 ATS in last 5 Overall. And 1-4 ATS in last 5 ROAD games. Also 1-4 ATS against TOR in their last 5 meetings)

    4. BULLS -6.5 (gonna but the hook to get this at -6. THE BULLS have been very mediocre lately but they are one of the best teams in the NBA on the ROAD and are covering machines for whatever reason on the ROAD on FRIDAY nights. Like 8-1 or something like that. Stopped keeping track and i am strapped for time today. Oh btw.....the BOBCATS suck)

    5. PREDS/CANUCKS UNDER 5 (2 defesnsive minded squads keep this UNDER 4. 2-1 PREDS)

    Thats all tonight. A 5-FINGER-FOR-A-FRIEND DISCOUNT. Use them all wisely fellas. Other games i like that didnt make the cut.

    RAPS/KNICKS. UNDER 194
    WIZ +3
    CELTICS -2

    GL tonight and enjoy the wkd with some inappropriate behavior in appropriate places, with inappropriate people!!!
    chuckster 02-22-2013 04:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.76 (total posts: 44)
    3     2

    Hey folks, well the two teams that I wanted in my teaser today, were just to Damn high on the line for me, (Thunder and Grizzlies). So, going with a three team par with: Pacers -9.5, Spurs -3, one open spot. Another three team par with: Bulls/Bobcats Under 185, Spurs -3, one open spot. Congrats to winners and GLTA.
    callmethan 02-22-2013 02:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.205 (total posts: 13)
    2     2

    Strong word for 'Goldstorm'
    19:30 Wolverhampton (uk racing)

    I will be putting in a nice bet

    good luck!
    BIG TIME BRO!!! 02-22-2013 01:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.67 (total posts: 105)
    2     2

    Early mornin LEANS for you DIRTY D,CKED FEENS on this lovely FINGER-A-FRIEND FRIDAY

    NBA

    PACERS -9.5
    BULLS -6.5
    WIZ +3
    RAPTORS +2
    LAKERS/BLAZERS OVER 202
    CELTICS -2

    NCAA

    BUTLER -3

    NHL

    SHARKS/BLAKHAWKS UNDER 5.5

    Lets get 2nd KNUCKLE deep on a friend today fellas. GL today and i will clean this yp to prob 4-5 plays and have a final card this afternnon. Time permitting



    Kurt 02-22-2013 12:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.225 (total posts: 1)
    2     2

    @ callmethan
    What web site do you bet
    On these races. I'm on bovada
    And they do not offer these.




    @ every one else
    Where is guru 66 at
    Have not seen him posting
    Hope he did not give up!!!
    callmethan 02-22-2013 07:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx.205 (total posts: 13)
    4     2

    a few small bets today (uk racing)

    Beranger 13:45 Win
    Henry king 16:00 E/w
    Taradrewe 17:20 Win

    good luck!

    BIG TIME BRO!!! 02-22-2013 02:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.67 (total posts: 105)
    2     2

    T!T MILK THURSDAY recap

    WIN - CAL +6 (loved this game as my BIG TIME PLAY OF THE NIGHT. CAL owns the QUACKS. They win outright 48-46 to make it 11 straight victories against OREGON)

    LOSS - PSU/ILLINI OVER 130 (this was frustrating as the ILLINI really struggled out of the gate it was 11-5 PSU with 11:30 left in the 1st HALF, but PSU failed to score much (9 PTS???) for the remainder of the half trailing 29-20. ILLINI picked it up but their first 9 mins and PSU's last 12 mins in the 1st half killed the total. Didnt miss by much, but a loss is a loss 64-59 ILLINI. Horrible 3-pt shooting by ILLI and poor FT shooting by PSU didnt help either)

    WIN - SA/LAC OVER 200 (WOW! SA with a statement win as they beat the freckles off of BLAKE and "LOB $H!TTY tonight. Luckily SA was scoring at its normal high volume, because LAC struggled offensively all night and looked frustrated throughout the contest. 116-90)

    LOSS -NY RANGERS ML -130 (this game really sucked. NY had nothing going as they trailed 1-0 early in the 1st. It stayed that way till the 3rd where they struck for 2 goals and a 2-1 advantage. They gave up the lead quickly as OTTAWA tied it at 2. It goes to a SO and woukdnt you know after about 10 rounds or so OTTAWA wins it. SOB, tough break. 3-2 OTTAWA)

    WIN - JETS ML +140 (this was a wild one as these teams went back and forth all night, but WPG kept getting out in front by 1 goal everytime they got deadlocked and that proved to be the difference as the JETS win 4-3)

    LOSS - SABERS ML + 110 (ahhhh another tough one, but the LEAFS are proving themselves at HOME now. BUFF had the early 1-0 lead after the 1st, but they surrendered 2 goals to TOR in the 2nd and 1 more in the 3rd. And thats the game 3-1 LEAFS)

    3-3 tonight so not too bad considering i hit my big play and won some +$$ on the JETS. Now a 9-6-1 record for the week with 2morrow's "FINGER-A-FRIEND FRIDAY" on deck. Hope all did well tonight
    Pharma245 02-21-2013 11:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.148 (total posts: 1)
    2     2

    Very nice site!
    Pharmg53 02-21-2013 11:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.133 (total posts: 1)
    2     2

    Very nice site! cheap cialis http://yieapxo.com/qoqvtv/4.html


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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