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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6




    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13





    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19




    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14


    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17


    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    Pharmk68 03-22-2013 07:19 am xxx.xxx.xxx.136 (total posts: 1)
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    @Guru 03-20-2013 10:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx.157 (total posts: 11)
    2     3

    We are looking for you over in the ncaa forum. Great picks on sunday. You won us all a few bucks. Thanks again !!
    Browns4Life 03-19-2013 05:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.34 (total posts: 1)
    3     2

    oh yeah baby, 4-0
    Gman 03-18-2013 07:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.42 (total posts: 5)
    2     2

    Guru I'm still looking good fu.kin job .
    theguru66 03-18-2013 06:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx16.2 (total posts: 19)
    13     3

    Not bad yesterday as I went 3-1. Missed that over in the Buckeye game after a nice 3-0 start. Oh well. Anyway, let's keep the train rolling shall we? I have a couple of picks for the passengers tonight...

    7:35; Atlanta Hawks hosting Dallas tonight and after the mavs lost that heartbreaker to the Thunder last night it's hard for me to imagine them getting up for a back to back game on the road. The Hawks impressed me last night with their win in Brooklyn and they are known to be a streaky team. I see them keeping the streak going tonight and taking care of buisness against the Mavs. Line has moved to 4 1/2 now but I think they'll win by 9-12. Lay the points and take Hot-lanta.

    8:30; Calgary visits Dallas for a date with the Stars and I like the under in this contest. I know both of the previous contests between these two this year have gone way over (a 11 and 7 goals game) but Calgary has scored 3 goals in their last 3 road games and Dallas has scored THREE goals in their last FOUR games and 3 of them were at HOME. I just don't see that many twine ticklers tonight and I see a 3-1 final.

    Monday's Recap:

    Atlanta hawks -4 1/2
    Calgary/Dallas under 5 1/2

    Good luck passengers!
    RGMass 03-17-2013 05:58 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.186 (total posts: 13)
    2     2

    Great run today Guru. 3-1 is awesome!! I always seem to miss the 4th game in parlays but still it was an awesome day!! I also like a few games in the NBA today:

    New Orleans/Minn over 189
    Golden State/Houston over 216
    OKC/Mavericks over 208

    GLTA!!!
    Vail skier 03-17-2013 03:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.78 (total posts: 11)
    5     2

    Guru66 good job so far, keep it up, hope everything is going good for you.
    RGMass 03-17-2013 03:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx.186 (total posts: 13)
    4     2

    Guru I love those picks for tomorrow. I'm rolling with you!! LETS GO!!
    theguru66 03-17-2013 02:02 am xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 2)
    25     2

    I don't know how many guys are still looking at this sight but if I help ONE person tomorrow I'll take it. OK, here is the deal. I have been crushing college basketball this week. Some of you posted that I did well last year in March with NCAA hoops and you'd be right. In fact, I usually do well during these conference tourny's. Saturday I hit 9 of 13 plays in college sooooooo I've decided to cap and post the four finals tomorrow. So without further ado, let's get this train rolling shall we?...

    1pm; ACC Championship pits the TarHeels and the Hurricanes. North Carolina has been here done that and just like Florida St. last year, Miami is hungrier. NC is in the dance and their banged up. They beat Maryland but it took a lot out of them. Miami just smoked NC State, they never trailed in the game and are playing for a possible one seed. THEN you can throw in the fact that Miami beat North Carolina TWICE already this year and this one is easy for me. Miami WON the ACC regular season this year for a reason. THEY ARE VERY TALENTED. North Carolina gets the line decrease because of their name and I'll take that all day long. Miami wins this game by at LEAST 8, I'm thinking 10+. Lay the points.

    1pm; SEC final and this one is also easy for me. I might be reading these all wrong but I don't see it. Ol Miss getting 11 points is nuts IMO. Florida has looked average over the last month and lost to Kentucky when they were up 7 with 5 to go. Kentucky is terrible and shouldn't be in the tourny if they make it. How do you lose to Vandy fighting for your tourny lives? How, when your not that good. Anyway, Ol Miss needs this game badly and will play their hearts out. They are also hungrier and this game should come down to the wire. Take the points.

    1pm; I've won a lot of money this year with the St. Louis Bilikens. This is a VERY good team and will make noise in the dance. They are going to win the A-10 title tomorrow and although VCU is good and will do everything they can to slow them down, St. Louis should win this game easy. They played only once this year and although they were at home they were up 17 at the half. I have St. Louis by 7-9 in this game and will gladly lay 2, their 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and 21-9 against teams with a winning record ATS in their last 30.

    3:30; The Badgers Buckeye game is by far the hardest of the day in my humble opinion. Ohio State probably has the better players and that usually wins in games like this but Wisconsin has looked awesome during this tourny. What I have learned over the years is that these games are hard fought and intense and there is usually a slight uptick in scoring due to the fouling and never give up attitude that these games bring. It will be close but I think this game goes over the total. 118 means they both have to get to 60 and I see this in the 67-64 range. If I had to chose the line I would take Ohio State but I like the over the best in this play.

    Sunday's NCAA Tourny Finals recap:

    Miami -3
    Mississippi +11
    St. Louis -2
    Wisconsin/Ohio State over 118

    Good Luck to everyone who's left and enjoy the great games!
    kvngr 03-14-2013 05:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.66 (total posts: 1)
    2     2

    If I remember right the train was steaming thru march madness last year.Hope life throws you some juicy fastballs soon theguru66.
    @theguru66 03-13-2013 01:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.100 (total posts: 1)
    3     3

    Haven't seen you on here for a while - figured something was up. Someone posted you were done with the site because of some childish behavior. But that didn't seem correct since you dealt with it for so long. Well, glad to see you will be coming back, if that really is you posting (since the IP address seems different). I'm looking forward to NCAA tourney picks from you. I think you did modertely well last year.


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - June 19


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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