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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6




    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13





    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19




    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14


    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17


    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    ClownBaby 10-31-2011 03:15 am xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 2)
    19     17

    Used to use this site as a referrence

    now I use it for fades

    thanks
    FUqer 10-31-2011 03:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.94 (total posts: 63)
    30     16

    I never bash on here but I must ask why Walt bet on a lot of heavy favorites this week when he said he thought Vegas would have a big week?

    I think he needs to focus more on Football and less on his foreign spam emails.

    Nobody is going to laugh at his attempt at humor, when they are losing money.

    I don't follow Walt's picks, I come here to Fade at least 6 of his picks every week. 5-1 fading him this week.
    ChoMp 10-31-2011 03:08 am xxx.xxx.xxx.134 (total posts: 2)
    48     14

    half way through the season WaLt nows the time to make that ComeBack from now on Its your show BrAhBrAh...these guys dont understand that its your oppinion on these games ......

    this site is for grownups
    these kids dont know whats up walt they wager every game like morons

    grow up fellas quit the trash talking and make your own money quit blaming walt for your wagers
    FUqer 10-31-2011 03:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.94 (total posts: 63)
    14     12

    I think this was the annual Vegas Week.

    I believe 7 out of top 10 most bet on college games lost.

    5 out of the top 7 bet on NFL teams lost.

    #1 Giants
    #2 Saints
    #5 Patriots
    #6 Ravens
    #7 Cowboys


    Does this mean they will give some back this weekend? Wait and watch there be a lot less flags this coming week.
    Ryan B. 10-31-2011 03:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.46 (total posts: 13)
    22     52

    I got KC+3

    I just wish we were gettin a lil more because I'm not too confident in KC beating SD straight up.

    A betting angle Walter didn't bring up that he usually does is that San Diego has a huge game against Green Bay next week. I don't think SD is gonna completely overlook the Chiefs, but this is definitely a bigger game for the Chiefs.

    Other reasons to take KC: The public is on SD, KC is at home on a Monday night, KC is on a 3 game winning streak
    FUqer 10-31-2011 03:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.94 (total posts: 63)
    18     12

    Early predictions for next week

    Falcons -8 **
    Bucs +7 *
    @Texans -10 **
    @Bills -1 **
    Dolphins +6 *
    49ers -3 **
    @Cowboys -10 *


    @Raiders -7 **
    Bengals +3 *
    @Cardinals -3 **
    Giants +8 *
    Packers -4 **
    Ravens +3 *
    Bears +6 **
    Dog Killer 10-31-2011 02:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 3)
    17     13

    oh yeah, btw..nyg perform poorly because they didnt see mia as a threat so they where taking it easy so they wont get any injuries so it wont affect the game against NE. Its one of there biggest game on schedule. Mia was a breather game and Im surprise Walt didnt mention that but I dont want to step on peoples toes.
    Fade Walt 10-31-2011 02:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.211 (total posts: 45)
    70     22

    @Sam

    Do NOT take KC...Walt took KC and he is a serious LOSER. Fade Walt id you want to make any money. San Diego will probably win by 20
    Dog Killer 10-31-2011 02:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 3)
    29     27

    check page 9 for reference
    I went 5/9 60% ats, a little better then Walts pick but not here to compete. Hope you guys can get a little help from me as Ive been successful going against Walts picks..lol...seriously I do bet opposite.

    MONDAY NIGHT pick sd -3
    SD is overdue for a blow out. Kc falls flat after a division win over Oak. Sd by 10 points. Public is down on SD because of some injuries so public betting KC due to the win in Oak. Teams are 3-18 ats after a division win of 20+ points victory and being a home underdog on Monday night. Also SD lost to Jets and KC blew out Oakland. Why is KC underdog? So the public thinks KC has value after shutting out Oakland and saw SD lost. Public loves kc with points. Vegas goes to the bank with KC picks on monday.

    Early pro pick top 3

    buff -1 biggest play

    ten-3 easy money.

    nyg-9 seriously?
    peyton gets with his little brother and discuss how to shred NE defense. I see NE win by 7 no cover.
    samnang126 10-31-2011 01:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx.128 (total posts: 1)
    13     31

    Thinking KC MONDAY NIGHT GAME. Any advice?
    Monday Morning QB 10-31-2011 01:29 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.90 (total posts: 87)
    34     13

    @nyyank don't worry about it, walter loves all the bashing, I never seen anyone spend so much time going through hate mail and responding to it adding his own digs in my life

    all you're seeing is just people rubbing it in after having hoped that would had made a turn around

    and when he doesn't (like this week ONLY TWO Correct picks SF, DAL (maybe kc for 3) he's gonna get needled its as simple as that!

    he need to stop using useless stats like that Buf has a losing record playing in Toronto(no longer true), well beside an awful sample size buffalo is pretty much a different team from when they played there before.

    current situations are more important then some meaningless historical stats
    jason 10-31-2011 01:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx.117 (total posts: 1)
    13     54

    Honestly, i don't think any pick analyst has done well this season.

    The lockout and work rules have made this season unpredictable. Teams are hitting strides at different points into the season.. I really believe some teams players have come in really out of shape and some are hitting strides now this late into the year.

    I believe in you walt, I think he is right about an upset with KC tomorrow..

    Im going to take the chiefs and over... I need a win.
    @Chad 10-31-2011 12:47 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.75 (total posts: 22)
    67     15

    Walt picked the Chiefs. Take the Chargers.
    nyyank 10-31-2011 12:30 am xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 3)
    32     341

    Shame to all the losers on this site that continue to bash a man (walter) while hes down! The name calling of walter has gotten ridiculous and all the guys that are talking crap are lowlifes! If you dont like the mans picks than pick oppsite but dont abuse him while hes losing....You scumbags need to get a life!
    Chad 10-31-2011 12:06 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.77 (total posts: 82)
    12     13

    Man the Eagles saved my @ss. I've had two losing weeks in a row now and my 34 unit surplus is down to 11 on the season. I need to wonder what I loved so much about the freaking Seahawks this week! I just love those home dawgs...

    Speaking of home dogs, it's time to start talking about Monday night. Normally I'd love KC here but the Chargers are coming off a loss and I hate betting against good teams that lost the previous week. Thoughts?


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - June 19


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 18


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 17


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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