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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6




    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13





    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19




    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14


    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17


    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    walter 11-01-2011 08:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.51 (total posts: 1)
    22     12

    Walt is the best capper. Fade his picks & you will be up handsomely.
    Eugene R 11-01-2011 07:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 1)
    15     11

    Hey Walter,

    I think you miscounted your week 8 figure.

    Eugene
    Pablo 11-01-2011 07:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
    13     13

    And in case Walt doesn't come through this week, note that the unders for bye teams from the week prior are now 14-4 (6-0, 3-3, 5-1) this year. A trend worth playing.
    Pablo 11-01-2011 07:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
    11     10

    Wow, I think I have had my fill of self-deprecating humor for the month. Keep at it Walt, the worm always turns.
    Matt 11-01-2011 06:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.43 (total posts: 20)
    11     12

    Idk about that 4-unit Miami pick Walt. The worst team in the league getting only 5 points on the road versus a red-hot team playing in one of the toughest stadiums to play? Really?

    I don't care if the line is shady or not. Stay away from that game. And if you do bet, KC is the right side.
    8-Track 11-01-2011 06:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.90 (total posts: 87)
    55     11

    Walt's advise so far is take all underdogs ATS

    if you want to make $$$ write down all his picks...

    then pick the opposite

    can it be that week 9 will be even worse for Walt then week 8?
    Matt 11-01-2011 06:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.43 (total posts: 20)
    14     14

    I agree with others on your Dallas-Philly recap. The Cowboys did not suffer a "tough" loss to the Eagles. The Chargers suffered a "tough" loss. The Cowboys just got their A$$ beat. They packed it in sometime during the 2nd quarter.

    I expect them to bounce back big vs a pathetic Seattle team.
    Moses 11-01-2011 06:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.102 (total posts: 2)
    22     13

    No, no, no, no.

    No way the 49ers will lose to Washington this week. Washington, the team that hasn't won a game since it's bye week and just got shutout by the Bills? You're smoking crack.

    Atlanta and Kansas City will also cover.
    9ers baby! 11-01-2011 05:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.25 (total posts: 6)
    72     15

    "This game actually doesn't mean much to the Bengals. They can lose this and be fine if they beat the Steelers and Ravens." WTF!!!
    RobLazlo 11-01-2011 05:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.66 (total posts: 4)
    14     13

    I agree with Chad. If Dallas had lost a close, hard-fought game maybe they'd be down, but they got humiliated. They'll probably be more up than they would otherwise be for a game against crappy Seattle.
    K. Kadashian 11-01-2011 05:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.28 (total posts: 24)
    18     11

    Walt says "RECAP: Unload your entire sportsbook account on the Chiefs because I really love the Dolphins."



    CONSIDER IT DONE!!
    Chad 11-01-2011 05:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65)
    24     11

    This is the kind of reasoning that gets you in trouble Walt:

    "It's going to be tough for the Cowboys to get up for the crappy Seahawks, given that they're coming off a tough loss to the Eagles."

    Coming off a loss is the best reason to "get up" for your next game. No professional athlete likes to lose, and the only thing worse than losing is losing AGAIN.

    You're thinking of it backwards.

    Now does that mean Dallas is a lock to cover? Hell no. Seattle is desperate for a win too. But I'll back the team with talent, playing at home in this spot.
    Chad 11-01-2011 05:10 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65)
    12     14

    Geez this weekend has fade the public written all over it. The only public-backed team I like so far is Dallas destroying the SeaChickens.

    I really like:

    SD +6 (for reasons discussed below)
    BAL +3.5 (always a close game vs. Pit)
    Miami +5 (Chiefs on a short week vs. a pissed off Miami team desperate to win)

    And just plain like:

    NYJ +1 (better team wins)
    WAS +3.5 (coast to coast travel for the niners and Washington will bounce back from shutout)
    DAL -12 (Betting against Seattle until they prove me wrong)
    TEN -3 (Lots of travelling for CIN this week, but I won't bet a lot against Dalton)
    NE -8.5 (Patriots will be pissed off and looking to slaughter someone. Bad spot for the G-Men who might be without Bradshaw.)
    Koy Detmer 11-01-2011 04:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 5)
    13     12

    Agree with you about the 49ers-Redskins game. It just has weird game that the Redskins somehow cover/outright win all over it.
    Matt 11-01-2011 04:36 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.33 (total posts: 16)
    13     14

    @ Ryan B

    Good point. We will see. I am just trying to figure out the mentality of the Chargers players. They were seconds away and a chip-shot FG from leading the division with a 2-game lead AND the tiebreaker vs KC. Botched snap, OT, and a KC FG later and they are now in a 3-way dogfight for the division. I'm no psychologist, but that's GOTTA be depressing. Might take them a week to get over that.


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 25


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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