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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6




    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13





    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19




    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14


    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17


    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    Starfoxxcc 11-02-2011 09:30 am xxx.xxx.xxx.187 (total posts: 2)
    51     24

    I love your picks. All I have to do is pick the opposite and win! Thanks!!!!!!
    FUqer 11-02-2011 08:19 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.94 (total posts: 63)
    49     178

    Fantasy Trade Thoughts...

    I was offered Vincent Jackson

    For

    Nate Washington and Frank Gore

    I know on paper this does not look like a good deal as Washington and Jackson are only separated by 4 points and gore has been hot lately.

    I feel as if I need a 3rd WR and Washington is not the long term answer.My Current WR's are

    Greg Jennings = 97 pts
    Stevie Johnson = 66 pts
    Nate Washington = 61 pts

    I am good at RB's as I have

    Fred Jackson = 143 pts
    Frank Gore = 100 pts
    Darren Sproles = 99 pts ( Bench )
    Maurice Jones Drew = 98 pts ( Bench )


    I originally offered Sproles and Washington for Jackson and then got counter offered for Gore.

    Should I Deny the trade?

    Should I counter offer MJD instead of Gore?


    I don't want to help out a rival, as we are both 5-3, but I want to get better myself.

    I have 4 worthy RB's in a 2 RB league, so I have one to spare.

    Do you think Vincent Jackson will catch fire as the Chargers are a better team in the 2nd half of the season, or will they continue to struggle.

    By any other Charger standard , they are sitting pretty, considering how aweful they usually start the season. This could mean they will be even better than normal in the 2nd half of the season.

    I know this seems like a no brainer to deny the trade but this is a critical stage of the season and I want to get some 2nd opinions.
    Matt 11-02-2011 08:08 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.32 (total posts: 6)
    14     13

    Nice pick on the Packers Walt. I'm going 5 units myself... although my scale is 1 unit = $10. I'm not a high roller like some of the people here claim to be.
    Gangsta 4 Sho 11-02-2011 07:18 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94)
    18     14

    walt haters gon die slow
    WoTFan 11-02-2011 06:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.12 (total posts: 1)
    13     15

    You just got cooler in my eyes, Walter.



    Song of Ice and Fire FTMFW


    Gerck 11-02-2011 06:12 am xxx.xxx.xxx.134 (total posts: 1)
    12     13

    Walt has interesting perspectives, but he relies more on trends and blows some things out of perspective like his bye week thing a few weeks ago and blames refs or special teams for his losses. Trends change. You pick your teams and if you over think it you lose. Take was he says as a perspective and nothing more. My 8 play parlay, all against Walt payed off big last week. Might do about 6 this week.
    FUqer 11-02-2011 06:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.94 (total posts: 63)
    46     18

    I disagree with Walt's claim that Vegas did not have a big week.

    By my accounts, 5 out of the top 7 most highly publicly backed teams lost.

    Giants, Saints, Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys

    And on top of the it looks like 7 out of the top 10 College team lost backed by the Public.

    I'm afraid this week is going to be another disaster for Walt.
    Fade Walt 11-02-2011 03:53 am xxx.xxx.xxx.211 (total posts: 45)
    22     14

    WALT HATER KILLA, please don't break one off in my mom's guts. She has had too many broken off already. Thank you, kind sir.
    pete McGuigan 11-02-2011 03:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.62 (total posts: 1)
    22     20

    I'm just gonna take the opposite of what you pick, and I should get 10 or 11 correct.
    Newbie 11-02-2011 02:49 am xxx.xxx.xxx.237 (total posts: 3)
    15     22

    The perfect storm brewing again? Falcons & Colts game is looking a lot like Saints & Rams game with the winless team playing at home. Is another upset coming?
    DJ Dana 11-02-2011 02:29 am xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 29)
    15     16

    It seems like Walt is doing a major public fade on this week's square plays. I'll tune in next Monday to see the post mortem. Should be interesting.
    real g 11-02-2011 01:08 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94)
    18     42

    "homie, shoot first, ask questions last." - walt hater killa
    real g 11-02-2011 01:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94)
    47     47

    back when i was in the jects, walt hater killa walked down the street with 2 of the biggest guns ive ever seen

    screaming "fort greene represent, for real, we run this", crazydude
    real g 11-02-2011 01:02 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94)
    80     66

    my god walt hater killa is so real
    Shmitty 11-02-2011 01:02 am xxx.xxx.xxx4.21 (total posts: 2)
    26     19

    Walt - I don't understand your Tampa Bay pick at all. I realize the Saints just lost to the Bucs a couple weeks ago, but this week it seems like all odds are against Tampa Bay.

    Here's why:
    1) Saints are at home. They have scored an average of 44 points at home this year. That is an average you just cannot ignore, especially since they dropped 60+ on the colts after coming off a road loss.

    2) Tampa Bay is horrendous on the road. They barely beat the McNabb lead Vikings in week 2 and got embarrassed by the 49'ers on the road. They also lost to the Bears in what was essentially a road game last week in which Freeman threw 4 INT's.

    Overall, I don't think there is any way New Orleans scores below 30 points, and based on Tampa's terrible road play, I don't see them scoring much over 20.

    I would either switch your pick around or save yourself $200 and change it to zero units.

    NO 34 TB 23

    Just my two cents..

    - Shmitty


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 21


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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