NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
Lions 16, Bills 6

---

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 4.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Colts 17, Bengals 13

---

Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Packers by 3.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Packers 20, Chiefs 19

---

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 3.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.

Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Eagles 24, Jets 14

---

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Line: Panthers by 2.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Steelers 33, Panthers 17

---

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 3.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.

Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Titans 32, Saints 9

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   loserboy 11-03-2011 09:12 am xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 2) 32     13 btw - I'm getting used to cat food. The liver flavor is especially tasty. loserboy 11-03-2011 09:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 2) 27     13 Now you are just mocking us - explaining in detail why you like Team A but taking Team B. I have liked your picks and analysis in the past few years but it's time to retire the "they can't get up for this game" routine. It isn't working. Focus on the fundamentals and which team should actually cover. Buckwheat 11-03-2011 08:35 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.98 (total posts: 13) 19     22 Walter, some constructive advice. Look at your write-up on the Bengals-Seahawks game. How can you not see that Seattle is a HORRIBLE team ? They lost to Cleve for pete's sake. Don't say seattle is a tough place to play, it is if the team is good. This team is AWFUL. More advice, don't put 4 units on a stiff team like the Dolphins. They are playing out the string until their coach gets fired and they have the top pick in the draft. This is where you are going wrong this year. Look at your write-up on Cleveland. They stink, they have no offense, then you pick them. This is why you are losing at a record pace. Don't take the dredges hoping they cover one week out of 16. Tennessee and Pitts are the best picks on the board Matt 11-03-2011 08:29 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.33 (total posts: 16) 18     15 @ real g I don't buy your argument on power rankings. Just because teams are high in power rankings doesn't mean they are overvalued. Maybe it means they are just damn good teams. When I think of overvalued teams I think of San Diego, Dallas, Philly, etc. Teams that are really not that good, yet will always consistently get a good piece of the action because the public thinks they are better than they actually are. Maybe it is their name, maybe it is the franchise's history, but they always get more action than they deserve. As far as the rest of your points, you're pretty much just repeating what Walt says. We'll see. I have a few games I like this week. Some with Walt. Some against Walt. I'll post the picks right before kickoff just to make it official. Daveigh 11-03-2011 02:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.120 (total posts: 1) 14     12 Alkaazaam-information found, problem solved, thanks! Dog Killer 11-03-2011 01:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.34 (total posts: 2) 14     15 Big Play On Boston college +14.5 for $5K bet of the month!!! Akron+14 for $100 Tulsa+ 1.5 for $100 8-Track 11-03-2011 01:21 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.90 (total posts: 87) 18     13 worst gambling statement ever "I'm going to be fading most publicly backed teams this week in hopes that Vegas recovers from all of their losses. If I'm going down, I'm taking the sportsbooks with me. "-Walt that's like saying the slots have came up plum-plum-lemon the last 7 times I played so this time it's going to be plum-plum-plum!! NO Walt is doesn't... Dog Killer 11-03-2011 01:06 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.34 (total posts: 2) 13     13 NCAAF 23-9 Won Big on Ohio today! Thurs night game belongs to the UNDERDOGS!! Pick akron+14 pick Tulsa +1.5 plus ML pick Boston College JETZMAN 11-03-2011 12:21 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.55 (total posts: 1) 14     32 Thanks Walt;now I must pull my kid out of college because I relied on your football wisdom to place my bets. What an ass kicking I took following your multiple unit bets. Do you realize your sorry ass was 3-10 against the line last week. This is your last chance for redemption Walt;so put up or shut up. Walterfootball.com Exclusive Interviews 11-02-2011 11:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 63     28 WF: Well, we're at it again. Take it away, gentlemen. WALT HATER KILLA: When I'm low on digits, I push blow in a blizzard. I'm a player for real, I post and pivot. Fade Walt: (slurp slurp slurp) (camera pans to Fade Walt putting a man's kielbasa down his trachea) WF: Wow. Well, that's about enough of that. Yeeeeesh. rcan 11-02-2011 11:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 1) 16     15 i think walter, you will bounce back this week. i have few questions though why there isnt a revenge factor in ravens-steelers game??? about chargers- packers, it could be possible that chargers played low as packers were next on list? Gangsta 4 Sho 11-02-2011 11:36 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 39     17 slow down walt hater killa !! you layin em out, its a masacer !! you too cold ! stop shootin man he already dead ! you catchin bodies son ! WALT HATER KILLA 11-02-2011 11:33 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 52     23 Fade Walt hearts young males. AYOOOO WALT HATER KILLA 11-02-2011 11:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 76     18 Only thing Fade Walt has been doing is hanging out at that Rocket Tube dot com. WALT HATER KILLA 11-02-2011 11:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 76     12 Fade Walt likes it in the bushes in the park, with the men. Pages: 1 2 ...1126 1127 1128 11291130 1131 1132 ...1475 1476

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 17


Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 16


2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 15


2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


NFL Picks - Feb. 3

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)