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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    Newbie2011 11-07-2012 04:33 am xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 171)
    4     10

    Talking about elections, did anyone else listen or watched the debates? I think it was the first one when the host was talking about osama bin laden and said obama bin laden by mistake. He choked saying it because he realized that he screwed that up right away. Lol.
    winner 11-07-2012 12:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 23)
    29     22

    Hey, check out fox news - its what losing looks like. I suppose the favorite covered. Always bet on black.
    The douche 11-06-2012 11:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.199 (total posts: 2)
    6     7

    Also, I would bet my next paycheck on an Obama re-election. So save your money Walter Nation and dont bet against
    The douche 11-06-2012 11:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.199 (total posts: 2)
    16     6

    This is my first post. Just want to say that I love this site and am telling all friends and colleagues to take a peek. Won $6k in the last two weeks with the insite provided. Very funny,very very analytical and smart. Feel like I cant lose if I just read what Walter advises. Thanks again and keep up the great work
    No Way 11-06-2012 10:10 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.174 (total posts: 1)
    57     38

    Obama 303

    Romney 235
    coalcracker 11-06-2012 08:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.131 (total posts: 42)
    5     9

    Take the over in Toledo/Ball State game. Game will go into ovetime with Toledo winning by 6.

    Toledo 48 Ball State 42
    Newbie2011 11-06-2012 08:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.168 (total posts: 4)
    12     5

    Toledo/Ball St total is at 70.5!!! People are taking the over!!! They need 10 TDs and something extra to win! Can anyone see this happening?
    GStar 11-06-2012 06:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    4     5

    @Guys who made money on NFL this weekend

    I heard the bookies in Vegas are referring to this as "Black Sunday". So many favourites came in that it's just killing 'em.

    Look for some fscked up lines in the week or two--Vegas needs its money back.
    BigDaddyVladdy 11-06-2012 05:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.78 (total posts: 2)
    25     23

    @madturk
    Agreeing with you buddy! I have a bet at +285 on Romney outstanding... It's a 50-50 election, and u getting such value, its SICK!

    BBALL
    I truly believe Toronto is an under-rated team... They have a top 3 pick from last year on the floor, and kyle lowry is a difference maker. Based on Vegasinsider, 86% of bets are coming in on OKC (not really surprising), but the line went down by half a point. Raptors +9 seems like the right side!

    Good luck, and GGOO ROMNEY!

    BDV
    BHPicks 11-06-2012 05:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.23 (total posts: 1)
    5     34

    PREMIUM PICKS:

    Ball State - Toledo
    Magic - Bulls
    Bluedevils 11-06-2012 04:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.234 (total posts: 1)
    8     5

    trend reasons to favor Ball State: Toledo is 0-4 ATS in their last four games on Thursday night and 0-5 ATS following a bye week; Ball State is 7-1 ATS following a bye and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 MAC games!! Ball St. Wins this game!
    theanswer 11-06-2012 04:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 7)
    44     12

    Obama - 5 star lock of the day.
    madturk 11-06-2012 03:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.68 (total posts: 3)
    988     1452

    my first post, wanted to make sure my first was a winner (100 star pick) ROMNEY (+240) IN A LANDSLIDE, heres why. 20 million unemployed who do you think their voting for, last election blacks, hispanics, immagrents and collage adults came out in groves for oboma people who never voted before, 90% of the blacks voted for the first black president, this time he will get lucky to get 60%, some like republicans last election wont even vote some will vote romney, oboma did not keep his promise to the inner city people, hispanics and immagrents are having problems finding work, and the republican party is coming out in groves this time. take romney +240 also penn. +400 he has a good shot with the coal country, walt love your site GL to all
    JETHRO 11-06-2012 03:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    4     4

    NBA: OKC, DENVER, DNVR GAME UNDER,
    NCAAF: TOLEDO.
    JETHRO 11-06-2012 03:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    8     5

    OKC/TOR TRENDS ATS
    OKC 16-4 AT HOME AFTER SCORING 95 OR LESS
    TOR 9-19 AFTER SCORING 105 OR MORE
    TOR 4-14 AS ROAD DOG OF 6.5-9
    OKC WON L4 AT HOME VS TOR BY 10.5 PPG AVG
    HOPE THIS HELPS!


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Free Agents - April 16


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 10


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 26


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
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    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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