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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6




    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13





    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19




    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14


    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17


    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    Chad 12-21-2011 10:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65)
    70     11

    Not sure why people are knocking Walt for his Miami pick. It's a solid play, and he lists several good reasons why they're a good bet.

    If Walt was working "with the books", why is he picking the play that the public isn't? Think about it
    Scott 12-21-2011 10:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx.243 (total posts: 3)
    16     10

    Walt - on the TB-CAR game you mention the 6 and 6 rule, what is the 6 and 6 rule?
    Chad 12-21-2011 10:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65)
    12     13

    Gator, I see a few really juicy NCAAB games tonight. Will watch the line movements today...hope we end up on the same page ;)
    Hmmm.... 12-21-2011 09:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.17 (total posts: 1)
    11     14

    I think Walt is working with the books.
    ie: Miami "pick of the month", really?????....hmmm
    What might really happen 12-21-2011 06:15 am xxx.xxx.xxx.217 (total posts: 28)
    22     10

    Hey 'What will really happen',you've made some nice picks lately but does it really hafta turn into a pissing contest between you and Walt?? Things get kinda weird for me when it's a "You're either with me or against me" thing....too cultish.

    If you like posting picks go for it. I'll give you props when I hit cuz of you.

    But are ya gonna disappear if you get 1 wrong?? It's like this other poster 'JohnnyV'. He had some good picks but thin skin. If ya got the balls to post a winner and rub someone's nose in it at least have the balls to have your nose rubbed once in a while. A 61% winning rate is good with me.

    It's like some dude that bangs 5 hot chicks in a row and then his buddies catch him banging a fat chick and all of the sudden they're not buddies anymore because he's not perfect.

    If you bet on the NFL you're gonna see a lot of fat chicks,but the key is to remind your buddies of all the hot chicks you've banged.

    Good luck to all.
    DJ Dana 12-21-2011 12:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 29)
    14     11

    I don't know why you wouldn't take the Texans over the Colts on the Thurs nighter. They had a clear breather game this past weekend vs. Carolina and Wade Phillips was out and not there to work his defensive magic. People will read too much into that Colts win and think they can replicate it against a very stout defense. I may tease it down to 3 to be on the safe side but I can't see how the Colts hang around all game.
    steve 12-21-2011 12:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    28     36

    Lock pick for TCU game tomorrow night at www.BlairHattonPicks.com
    Moses 12-20-2011 11:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 5)
    32     15

    Meaningless game for Dallas? Uhhhh, no. If Dallas wins, and NYG loses, it's a clinch. Revenge doesn't mean crap if the team that has beat you in the past won't make the playoffs.

    I see you're still in love with Minnesota, Walt. You really like to bet big on them. Are you an employee of theirs? Your "logic" that the Redskins are 5-9 is ridiculous. What's Minnesota's record? Maybe you'll get lucky with the spread, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet 3 units on them.

    And as someone else pointed out, Denver will play hard for the division. What better opponent to "get up for" than crappy Buffalo? Why risk throwing away a win and a clinch to lay it all on the line the following week?

    You're also wrong about San Francisco and Tennessee.
    Moses 12-20-2011 11:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 5)
    26     17

    Walt's logic makes absolutely NO sense!

    As someone else pointed out with a sarcastic "huh?", the NE/MIA games aren't close at all.

    Yes, GB lost, but they still need a win to clinch home field advantage. Chicago is likely to be without their star quarterback too. They will get up for this game.
    Gator 12-20-2011 10:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    44     64

    ...oh and I do bet those other sports but am even steven at best in those....College Bball is the way to go....for me anyway....
    What will really happen 12-20-2011 10:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.90 (total posts: 87)
    14     13

    up 38 down 250
    very well you're on your own good luck with walt's picks he already has a few wrong including one big game
    Gator 12-20-2011 10:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    22     13

    @nic...I do my college basketball picks daily so you'll just have to wait as lines don't come out early enough to do number crunching....quite a streak going as Manhattan has already covered, VCU has already covered and Ohio is about to so that runs the winning streak currently to 9 in a row....so while it sounds like it, I'm not bragging but saying I'm due for a few losses coming up soon for sure...it's the nature of the game....also there's no such thing as a "lock" and anyone that says they have a sure one hasn't been sports betting very long.....with that said hopefully I'll have a couple winners for you tomorrow.....
    NYTony 12-20-2011 10:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.12 (total posts: 106)
    42     26

    @Walt - better backtrack on that NE pick. Which team from Mass. have you been watching? Brady may be the best QB who ever lived, and those two TE are unstoppable. The NE D is playing better and they're home. Pats will easily cover.

    NE 38 - MIA 21
    Nic 12-20-2011 10:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx36.6 (total posts: 1)
    18     15

    Gator--like your picks. I'm looking for 2 locks in the next few days--anything ncaab/ncaaf/nfl/nba--what do you think?
    Brandon 12-20-2011 08:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 3)
    65     13

    I'm not sure Walter understands what the word "fluke" means. He keeps pointing to Denver's "three fluky fumbles" as the reason they lost, but a fluke is something that only happens once, not three times in the span of 60 minutes. Perhaps the Broncos lost because they played a superior team who was more careful with the football.


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 21


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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