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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6




    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13





    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19




    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14


    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17


    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


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    ScotteW 12-26-2011 07:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.12 (total posts: 10)
    8     9

    Steve love your picks. I took Missouri minus the points and should have put something on the over.

    Love the NBA picks. Not sure about SA but took the under.


    And there isn't a team that will shut down the Saints at home. Falcons do not have a chance in the Dome.
    psych1c 12-26-2011 07:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.35 (total posts: 2)
    9     8

    http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101218234

    copy paste that link to view full write up on NCAAF match up NC vs Mizz..maybe bring some perspective on things
    STEVE 12-26-2011 07:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.72 (total posts: 1)
    8     7

    Missouri is working NC in this bowl game! Wish I had more on them.

    I like Saints tonight and bought a half point to get it to -6.5. Would not be surprised by a double digit Saints win though.

    I don't know if anybody lays anything down on NBA but thought I would share my plays tonight.

    Chicago -6.5 - D Rose and company will roll with a double digit win.

    Chicago/Golden State Under - Bulls Defense shuts Warriors offense down probably under 85 points.

    Lakers -2.5 - will bounce back with cover after tough loss to Chicago last night.

    OKLA City -5

    other picks but staying away from them...
    Nets +3.5
    Bucks -4
    Magic -6
    Raptors +2
    Mavs -4.5
    Spurs -5
    Hornets +6.5
    Trail Blazers -5

    Good luck to everyone tonight. God have mercy on those that took the Falcons:)

    chuckster 12-26-2011 07:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.200 (total posts: 182)
    10     10

    @Mike: Wait to see if Falcons go to 7.5, then you could have Atlanta +21.5 thus getting the hook. ........ LOl. Mike if you believe, the Falcons worst case, lose by say 14, then ya you should jump on it. BTW.. only half kidding about waiting on the spread, I don't know about your "house" but mine counts a tie as a loss in 10, 13, and 14 point teasers. I've had Saints locked in since last Wednesday, as soon as I saw them at -6.5, I knew I could get the Saints plus "the hook". What ever you decide good luck.
    @ Nubie1 12-26-2011 07:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 6)
    8     10

    Thanks!

    I didn't mean to steal your name. New to the board and didn't know what to use. I'll think of something.

    For some reason I like the Saints tonight -6.5. Playing at home and they are on a roll. The falcons have killed me all year,when I've picked them so hopefully it dosn't happen tonight
    Mike 12-26-2011 06:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.96 (total posts: 1)
    12     7

    Take the Falcons +21- chuckster!?!
    Newbie 12-26-2011 05:59 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.55 (total posts: 1)
    9     20

    I see there is another "Newbie" other than me. Maybe I should change my SN since I've been here for about 3 months now.

    @Newbie below: Gater will post his picks here on the 27th, after things settle down from Christmas.
    chuckster 12-26-2011 05:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.200 (total posts: 182)
    9     7

    Need one more team to cover to get my 14 point 5 team teaser win. I've got Saints teased to +7.5 tonight. I hope history continues to repeat itself and this game is decided by 6 points or less either way. Good luck to all tonight.
    Devang 12-26-2011 05:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    9     10

    Actually Blair states more reasoning than that talking about Brees breaking Dan Marino record, and doesn't even talk about the second seed in NFC! Learn how to read dummy!
    Roll Tide 12-26-2011 05:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.36 (total posts: 7)
    9     10

    @ johnny mac
    He missed all the over/under plays on the late games too except Dallas, Romo went out the game went under. After this nightmare of a beginning, I fought back so I can not complain too much. Would be nice to spank "the man" one more time and call it a year. NO is great, I think they will take it all this year and Atlanta does play them tough while Roddy and Jones have been lighting it up, definately playing the over and hope like hell Atlanta covers. ROLL TIDE!!
    Steve 12-26-2011 05:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    12     67

    Check out www.BlairHattonPicks.com for the winning tease for tonight's games!
    Newbie 12-26-2011 05:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 6)
    12     9

    I see alot of people like Gators picks. Where does he post his picks when he picks?
    Bear 12-26-2011 04:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.235 (total posts: 3)
    15     9

    lol, just checked out that steve guy's website. he says to take the saints tonight (in the link labeled 12/26 tease). for his reasoning, he explains the saints can clinch the second seed and a first round bye in the nfc tonight.

    what. an. idiot.
    ScotteW 12-26-2011 04:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.12 (total posts: 10)
    12     13

    NO - 40
    Atl- 24
    Flyers 1 12-26-2011 03:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 49)
    9     10

    Last Monday Night Game of the season should be an exciting one between these two division rivals.

    New Orleans 28
    Atlanta 24


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 24


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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