NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011

Today's NHL picks for those who are interested..

Columbus -0.5 in regulation (+168) (1 Unit)

PARLAY - PIT -0.5 in REG (-139) + PHI -0.5 in REG (+105) (1 Unit)

I know I'm getting ahead of myself here but at first glance at the NFL games I like STL +12 (current line @ 5dimes) and here's why.

Between 2003-2011, from WK 15 forward, home dogs of +8 or more are 18-8 ATS.

When we look at just 2008-2011, home dogs of +8 or more are 7-0 ATS.

I'm not trying to grill you or anything it's all good man I appreciate the feedback I just like to learn why people make the picks they do so I can (hopefully) get better at capping as well.

I'm no pick expert guys just voicing my thoughts I'm 4-0 this NBA season thought I'd share if I keep winning I'll share if not I'm jus another guy saying what's on my mind I think they will cover guys gl to all tho

Well that would b what makes it easypicking it's their 1st game and the nets came back from way down last night so a close line is called for. Let me ask u y weren't the saints favored by 28 llast night bc it was obvious atl wasn't on their level and they were at home. Moral is Vegas has u wondering y the line is so close don't they?

@EasyPicking

If they're an elite team and a playoff team why is the line only 4 and not like 10?

Atl is an elite team not to mention this is their opener period they are a playoff team and nets r without their second best player atl -4 book it

I don't know much about NBA but shouldn't the Nets be fired up for this one coming off a win (especially when they came out so flat)? Not to mention it's the home opener (not sure if this is a big factor in NBA)? I don't imagine they'll be THAT tired heading into game 2 of the season...A little direction would be greatly appreciated thanks guys.

Atl -4 nets are not that good yea they won against a young talented wizards team but that youth let up with that big lead hawks win this easy
Mia and Bos over 187

I think Emmitt meant pensacola in his twit to Trent.


2. "Good luck Trent Richardson tomorrow. Bring the trophy home to the cola."

I wonder if Emmitt's a Coke or a Pepsi man.

Ok holidays are kind of over and college hoops will be back in full swing starting tomorrow. Sweat Barometer Picks are 23-5-1 thus far.... A few games today but I only have one solid pick for today. One thing I have learned over the last few years is betting on leans or betting just to bet always results in losses, so while I have some leans today I am not betting those...only the one pick that really supports the system. Today's pick is:

Illinois -5 (mid tiered pick)

(a little write up today since there's only one pick: Minny's first real road game...they also have only really played one real tough game at home and that was against Dayton and they got buried by 16...Illi is undefeated at home and apparently a very tough place to play for any visiting team...they have played 4 really good teams and are 2-2 against them with the 2 losses on neutral courts. Vegas line #'s and betting percentages don't go against nor really support the pick, which I'm ok with.)

Also just adding another small bet game which is somewhere in between a lean and a solid pick so I'll grade it as a lowered tier pick:

Wisconsin -8

....in a side bet/note I am also laying a small bet on the the Nets at +4.5...I also have had a lot of success in the NBA but it's too early in the season to have a reliable system so these picks will just be small and on some trends I believe in....but basically test bets for now.....example...ATL has lost 16 of past 18 in NJ...NJ looks to have improved this year coming in, while ATL has stayed the same or possibly may have regressed. Nets did play last night but it was only a short trip and gained some confidence perhaps by coming back from an early Double Digit deficit to win....like I said...to early in the season to bet a lot but gonna lay a small wager on that and see what happens...ok that's too much blabbing for this board.....word....

Walt, whats going on wiht u, it

@ PAYDAY, I like Walt cause he gives you his opinions with some stats to go along with them... I hope you have bet against Walt the last 4 years cause you would have lost $9,500 on a $100 bet. And that is including this year. If you dislike his site, the way he makes money, and his hatred for Vick then go somewhere else! Lets recoup some losses this week Walt!

@ Scotie ..just so you know i do look at a lot of info about the sports that i bet and i am not blaming Walt. In fact i said that he is making money because he has created a website that companies are paying him to advertize on. if i really wanted to make money on this site and using odds i would bet against walter.

@Payday Walt doesn't ask you to place money on the teams or games that he picks. He simply gives his input an reasoning behind his picks. Its best to read everything that he or anyone else here has to say about the games and make your picks yourself. Its like a debate. But I see where you are coming from. It is always easier to blame someone else for your own mistakes. If you are just going off of what one person thinks and blindly betting then you might as well play online blackjack.