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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Line: Packers by 9.

Friday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This line looks crazy, but it can be justified. The Colts don't give a damn about preseason games. In fact, they battled the Packers in Week 3 of the exhibition last year. Green Bay rolled, 59-24.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Mike McCarthy is 10-12 in preseason games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Colts 10
    Packers -9 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Packers 24, Colts 21





    St. Louis Rams (2-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
    Line: Rams by 2.5.

    Friday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Preseason games are beneath Todd Haley, who has an abysmal 1-9 record in exhibition contests. Steve Spagnuolo, meanwhile, is a solid 8-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 8-2 in preseason games.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 2-0 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Todd Haley is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Chiefs 17
    Rams -2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Rams 14, Chiefs 10






    Miami Dolphins (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Buccaneers by 4.5.

    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Raheem Morris is pissed about getting debacled by the Patriots, but I'm still taking the points. Tony Sparano (11-3) really cares about winning preseason games. Morris (4-6), not so much.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Tony Sparano is 11-3 in preseason games.
  • Raheem Morris is 4-6 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Buccaneers 20
    Dolphins +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Buccaneers 17, Dolphins 13


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    madturk 11-12-2012 07:58 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    2     4

    if u want the over i think you should wait till game time you might get 39 kc + 13 might go up to im waiting for the hook
    madturk 11-12-2012 07:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    4     3

    i got the over 39.5 thursday i bet under 42 trying to middle da man
    393 11-12-2012 07:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 6)
    3     3

    NBA
    10 unit:704 Philadelphia -4
    393 11-12-2012 07:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 6)
    5     4

    10 unit: K.C + 13
    10 unit: K.C. under 40.5
    5 unit parlay: K.C. + 13 and under 40.5


    1st half.
    5 unit: under 20 K.C
    aztek25 11-12-2012 07:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.73 (total posts: 1)
    4     3

    @guru

    How about Dallas -7 vs timberwolves??
    ProPickEm 11-12-2012 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    4     6

    Take KC +13 and Over 40.5


    PRO PICK EM-------

    ProPickEm 11-12-2012 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    5     7

    Take KC +13 and Over 40.5


    PRO PICK EM-------

    theguru66 11-12-2012 07:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    4     6

    Already posted my NFL play tonight now let's finally get the NBA train out of the station. 11-11 is horrible and that has to improve as I usually have a good feel on the Association. Like I've said in the past, next to football it is the next easiest sport to cap. Obviously that hasn't been the case so far yet this season but hey it can all start tonight...

    7:05; Sixers are hosting the Bucks tonight and Philly has been on a nice little run lately, winning three in a row, all on the road. Their home tonight and I think they'll win and cover against the Bucks. Milwaukee is a strong road team but I think Philly has finally realized that defense wins games. They should be able to clamp down on the Bucks and pull away late in the second half. This game reminds me of when the 6ers played Denver early in he year at home and the nuggets couldnt get anything going offensively. Same concept, 94-85.

    8:05; Bulls hosting Boston and both of these teams are 1-5 ATS this year. So this is a gut game and my gut is telling me the Bulls win. The Bulls are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 times their playing a fourth consecutive home game and have beaten Boston in Chi town 4 straight times. 95-88.

    8:05; can't see Miami losing two in a row and how is Houston going to stop the Heat from scoring? Houston is just out matched and out motivated in his game. Heat by 10.

    9:05; one of he highest numbers I've seen in a while at 203 but I still think the Nuggets Suns game goes over. The Nuggets will not be stopped by the Suns and I'm seeing over 115 from them tonight. Denver's D isn't world beaters so I think the Suns will get theirs as well. I see something like 116-110.

    Monday's NBA plays:

    76ers -4
    Bulls -2 1/2
    Miami -5
    Nuggets/Suns over 203

    Good Luck tonight everyone! Stand clear of the closing doors.
    Sportstradamus 11-12-2012 07:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 1)
    9     8

    Pitt is notorious for not covering large spreads when they are under the national spotlight. Also, the rain that hit us in Chicago will be there for the game which will make for a tough game to put up major points. KC can't on a sunny day. I am saying 23-14 Steelers.

    Take KC and the points and ride the under.

    I also like OKC -6.5, Heat -5(bought down .5), and 76ers rolling against the bucks.

    Good luck!
    andy w 11-12-2012 07:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    9     4

    @The most interesting man in the world

    I agree with you. That's why PIT will win tonight.

    IMO, it says bupkis about PIT covering the spread.

    PS: I like your beer.
    GURUBALL 11-12-2012 06:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.145 (total posts: 2)
    13     5

    We will see....

    Still 49er nation all dam day hahah wassup with that tie
    Shaddddy!
    Wake up 11-12-2012 06:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    6     8

    I bet Even Romeo bet 100 units on the Steelers + 14
    The most interesting man in the world 11-12-2012 06:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    5     6

    & this game means Alot to the Steelers,ranking wise, & nothing To Romeo~ one of the worst coaches ever.
    Not even a Steeler Fan. 11-12-2012 06:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    30     12

    Everybody should know, & I mean everybody should know, the Chiefs are far worse than the Jets, & far worse than the Jaguars.
    Ben will absolutely put on a show tonight, a gazillion Big Unit Randy Johnson's on the Steelers.. C'mon man...!
    andy w 11-12-2012 06:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    13     9

    Tonight's game, the way I see it.

    KC will have 5 or 6 trips to the redzone.
    Since they are KC, this will translate to 3 FGs for 9 points.

    They could conceivably break a KO return or a run from scrimmage for 7, so they should tip out at 16 max.

    So PIT would need 28 points to cover in the *worst-case* scenario. This is not an issue provided they don't take their foot off the gas.

    And this is the main problem I've had with PIT in years past.

    Keep in mind, I'm not talking backdoor cover here .. just PIT screwing over the public.

    I'm playing PIT tonight, but I'd be lying if I said I no concerns.


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
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    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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