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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Line: Packers by 9.
Friday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This line looks crazy, but it can be justified. The Colts don't give a damn about preseason games. In fact, they battled the Packers in Week 3 of the exhibition last year. Green Bay rolled, 59-24.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Mike McCarthy is 10-12 in preseason games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Colts 10
    Packers -9 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Packers 24, Colts 21




    St. Louis Rams (2-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
    Line: Rams by 2.5.
    Friday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Preseason games are beneath Todd Haley, who has an abysmal 1-9 record in exhibition contests. Steve Spagnuolo, meanwhile, is a solid 8-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 8-2 in preseason games.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 2-0 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Todd Haley is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Chiefs 17
    Rams -2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Rams 14, Chiefs 10





    Miami Dolphins (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Buccaneers by 4.5.
    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Raheem Morris is pissed about getting debacled by the Patriots, but I'm still taking the points. Tony Sparano (11-3) really cares about winning preseason games. Morris (4-6), not so much.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Tony Sparano is 11-3 in preseason games.
  • Raheem Morris is 4-6 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Buccaneers 20
    Dolphins +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Buccaneers 17, Dolphins 13


    Leave a comment

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    YOU RETARD WALT! 10-30-2011 08:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.109 (total posts: 3)
    419     12

    YOU LOST EVERY F*CKIN POINT SPREAD PICK IN THE EARLY GAMES YOU PICKED!!!
    I USED TO USE YOU AS A REFERENCE BEFORE THIS YEAR, BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH YOU MUST INTENTIONALLY PICK LOSERS TO PISS PEOPLE OFF OR SOMETHING, GROW UP OR GET A NEW DAY JOB, PICKIN FOOTBALL AINT FOR YOU! U SUCK BRO
    balla 10-30-2011 07:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.172 (total posts: 12)
    12     11

    just went to 49 moved a point what u guys think
    dub 10-30-2011 07:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.161 (total posts: 1)
    13     12

    piss-poor, and stat was piss-poor
    COME ON MAN 10-30-2011 07:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.28 (total posts: 1)
    20     12

    When you pick teams for units or not on Charlie Whitehurst, Curtis Painter, John Beck and Tim Tebow you deserve to loss period
    @Fade Walt 10-30-2011 07:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.75 (total posts: 22)
    15     12

    You are forgetting to bet a unit on the over tonight. Walt has 0.5 units on the under for tonight's game.
    no winners here 10-30-2011 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.200 (total posts: 4)
    14     12

    @ balla

    As walt would say "RECAP: as mentioned in the trends report earlier walt has gone a putrid 1-10 in this situation so I would fade his pick take the Cowboys. Walt is overrated and his analysis looks good on paper but continues to prove to be useless with the game on the line"
    Alex W 10-30-2011 07:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.192 (total posts: 1)
    20     13

    That is a brutal Sunday. I think Walt needs a week off, he needs a week to rethink his betting strategy take a look at the landscape and adjust. Look at his Pats-Steelers write, the whole time he talks up how favorable the matchup is for Pittsburgh schematically but then puts 4 units on Pats. Units on Tebow, "Poop Salad", etc. Rough.
    Satan 10-30-2011 07:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191)
    13     64

    I likin Philly to cover.

    I'm a Cowboys fan, and I think they're the better team, but my gut is tellin me the Eagles are gonna put together their best game of the season tonight. This game will go over.
    www.stoikspicks.com 10-30-2011 07:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.149 (total posts: 8)
    98     12

    Look at my pics that I posted on this site on

    October 26, 2011 at 12:44am

    Gold (10 Units): Bills -6
    Silver (6 Units): Rams +13
    Bronze (3 Units): 49ers -9

    go to www.stoikspicks.com in 1 week to see all the right picks for the rest of the season.

    cash baby
    big ryan 10-30-2011 07:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 2)
    12     12

    cowboys. Walt likes the Eagles. Teams off the bye are out of sync. Look at the Patriots today.
    D.Ro 10-30-2011 07:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 17)
    13     12

    I just got a peek at Walt's next week's summary.
    He said he went 9-2 this week +27 units.

    Boycott his advertisers until he starts winning again.
    He shouldnt get paid until he starts doing his job.
    balla 10-30-2011 07:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.172 (total posts: 12)
    15     13

    cowboys or eagles??
    andy w 10-30-2011 07:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.57 (total posts: 12)
    15     11

    @ Matt
    totally agree, though the 49ers broke an otherwise perfect record.
    @ Fade Walt 10-30-2011 07:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.24 (total posts: 36)
    15     21

    McLovin:

    Dude, you're not seriously Fading Walt and doubling units are you???

    If so, way to go man!
    Fade Walt 10-30-2011 07:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.211 (total posts: 45)
    33     12

    Buffalo -6 +6 units
    Detroit -3 +2 units
    Pittsburgh +3 +4 units
    Cleveland +9 -6 units
    Cincinnati -3 +2 units
    ---------------------------
    +8 units for the late game combined with +18 units on the early games...+26 units just for fading Walt.

    Taking Dallas +3.5 for 4 units tonight and Sand Diego -3.5 for 2 units tomorrow. Even if I lose both games I will be +20 units for the day.

    Keep 'em coming Walt...at this rate I can pay off my house by the end of the year. Ha Ha Ha Ha...what a loser!!!!


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 25


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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