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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Line: Packers by 9.

Friday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This line looks crazy, but it can be justified. The Colts don't give a damn about preseason games. In fact, they battled the Packers in Week 3 of the exhibition last year. Green Bay rolled, 59-24.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Mike McCarthy is 10-12 in preseason games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Colts 10
    Packers -9 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Packers 24, Colts 21





    St. Louis Rams (2-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
    Line: Rams by 2.5.

    Friday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Preseason games are beneath Todd Haley, who has an abysmal 1-9 record in exhibition contests. Steve Spagnuolo, meanwhile, is a solid 8-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 8-2 in preseason games.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 2-0 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Todd Haley is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Chiefs 17
    Rams -2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Rams 14, Chiefs 10






    Miami Dolphins (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Buccaneers by 4.5.

    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Raheem Morris is pissed about getting debacled by the Patriots, but I'm still taking the points. Tony Sparano (11-3) really cares about winning preseason games. Morris (4-6), not so much.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Tony Sparano is 11-3 in preseason games.
  • Raheem Morris is 4-6 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Buccaneers 20
    Dolphins +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Buccaneers 17, Dolphins 13


    Leave a comment

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    @King AKA Guruball 09-30-2012 10:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    8     6

    It's not just that you don't get it.

    You're so stupid that you CAN'T get it.

    I thought I was talking to someone who wasn't completely retarded. I was wrong.

    You're not just a punk, you're a brain-dead idiot. Sucks for you.

    If you ever start betting on football, good luck. You're going to need it.
    King 09-30-2012 09:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.55 (total posts: 2)
    6     6

    Learn the street booking n talk about units with me.
    King 09-30-2012 09:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.55 (total posts: 2)
    6     9

    Retards out here...if I put 2 racks on a game that means I really like it! Ways the point of posting up a bet if I only put 5units(500) on it. 5unit is my regular bet.
    Anyways. For those out there who knows wuzup.
    GL
    truth 09-30-2012 09:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.71 (total posts: 10)
    6     7

    whats gonna be a good play for the second half fellas
    freefootballguru 09-30-2012 08:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.181 (total posts: 6)
    11     6

    Went 6-1 today. I posted my NFL picks on here yesterday. freefootballguru.com

    freefootballguru 09-28-2012 11:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.220 (total posts: 4)
    11 3

    San Francisco -4 @ NY Jets

    I like the 49ers to bounce back after getting surprised by the Vikings. The 49ers stayed east after last Sunday's game so the travel shouldn't be an issue. The Jets are at home but are reeling from the loss of Revis and the offense has been struggling to get anything going. It won't get any easier against one of the toughest D's in the league. I look for San Fran's D to stifle Mark Sanchez and the Jets ground game while Alex Smith plays smart and efficient.

    Minnesota @ Detroit Over 46.5

    I think this game will be higher scoring than expected. Minnesota will want to run the ball with Adrian Peterson but Christian Ponder has been playing well and he gets Jerome Simpson back in the mix. The Vikings have been excited about Simpson as they think he brings a deep ball dynamic to the offense. It looks like Stafford will play and even if he doesn't, Shaun Hill can lead this explosive team up and down the field.

    New England -4 @ Buffalo

    The Patriots have to bounce back after getting shocked at home against the Cardinals and losing a heart breaker in Baltimore. There is a reverse line movement in this one but I have to go with the Pats here. Belichick will have his team extra prepared to go on the road and take on a divisional foe in a very important game for them. Buffalo's backfield is banged up and even if Fred Jackson and or C.J. Spiller play, I don't think it'll be enough to beat an angry Patriots team.

    Tennessee @ Houston Over 45

    We all know Houston has a powerful offense and defense but I think the Titans are coming into their own and finding an offensive identity. I see this being a more competitive game than expected and the teams should cruise past the over/under total of 45.

    San Diego @ Kansas City Over 44

    I've been having some luck with the totals so far this season and here's another one I like. When they're clicking, I think both offenses are strong and this one could turn into a wild AFC West shootout.

    Oakland @ Denver -6.5

    The Broncos have had a tough early season schedule and even though the Raiders had a nice comeback at home against the Steelers last week, I see them as the inferior team here. This is a nasty divisional rivalry but I think this is the game that Peyton really gets it going in front of the home crowd and the defense should smother and harass Carson Palmer.

    Miami +5.5 @ Arizona

    This is a gut feeling that Arizona comes back to earth here and Miami comes in and plays this one close. Miami is playing tough D right now and Kolb is due to make some big mistakes. Tannehill is playing fairly smart and isn't forcing the issue but the Cardinals also have a very tough D. The reverse line movement was enough for me to go ahead and take the points.


    Alex69der 09-30-2012 08:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx50.0 (total posts: 1)
    11     7

    looks like you did pretty good walt
    GURUBALL 09-30-2012 08:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    6     6

    I KNOW UNITS ARE A SCALE AND NOT DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO ANY MONEY AMOUNT!!



    I KNOW POSTING UNDER "KING" ISNT FOOLING ANYONE!!



    I KNOW I SOUND LIKE A PUNK!! AND A BROKE PUNK AT THAT!!

    I JUST LIKE TO SOUND LIKE A MAN-LOVER BECAUSE I WANT MORE OF THAT ANAL MAN LOVE!!

    DONT HATE ON ME FOR MY ALTERNATIVE LIFESTYLE!!
    Ghost 09-30-2012 08:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.174 (total posts: 1)
    6     6

    Eagles
    (-2.5)
    Let's the eagle fly
    @King 09-30-2012 08:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    6     6

    No, "20 units" is something meaningless that a broke punk would say.

    1-5 units is the scale to use 99% of the time. A "bet of the month" or something like that is 7-8 units. A "bet of the year" would be 10. Anything more than 5 units on a regular basis just says you're an idiot who has no idea what they're talking about. Like you.

    Get a job and learn how to spell, in whatever order you choose. Or don't. You'll still be licking men's poles either way. It's alright though, I don't have a problem with your man-loving lifestyle, it's your choice. Just make sure to get HIV testing once in a while, those glory holes are dirty.

    King 09-30-2012 08:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.159 (total posts: 1)
    6     5

    Damn stupid retard. If 50 units= 5g den a 20 unit bet is 2g mother fcuker!! Get smart n talk to me. Apparently u know nothing about betting so stick a dick ur ass n STFU! Let us big bois talk about ur money making
    Roll Tide 09-30-2012 08:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.122 (total posts: 51)
    5     7

    Went 3-1 today boys, had to fight to get the over in Green Bay...but it came home. Hate the Giants...play Philly tonight and Dallas tomorrow. Check the number on futures for Washington to win division...I'm all over it!!
    GURUBALL 09-30-2012 08:11 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    5     5

    A UNIT IS ALSO SOMETHING I SHOVE IN MY MOUTH!!

    GLTA!!
    @King 09-30-2012 08:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    12     6

    So in other words, you're putting $20 on the Eagles game.

    Thing is, a unit can be $1 or $1000. Or $1,000,000.

    Only a broke punk would overcompensate by claiming something stupid like "20 units".

    If you want to impress someone by the size of your play, just say what the size of your play is.

    A real sharp with real money uses a unit count to indicate how large their bet is on a universally used scale. Which is quite obviously what you and Guruball aren't. So go blow each other in the corner, losers.
    King 09-30-2012 08:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.155 (total posts: 2)
    8     6

    In my book a 50unit=5g. Those kind of bet happens all the time. Lo money go home. Big money keep playing.

    Philly -2.5 (20 units)

    Go big or go home!

    You retards quit crying n play the game.
    GURUBALL 09-30-2012 07:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    6     6

    I bet if I stopped being an idiot and saying "50 units" like a total moron, I would probably stop talking about rods in my ass.

    Maybe if I divided all of my utterly retarded unit counts by 10 so that it resembled the bets of a person that wasn't completely brain-dead... hmmm, maybe there's a connection.

    Until then, shove that manhood in my butt, boys.

    GURUBALL


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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