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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Line: Packers by 9.

Friday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This line looks crazy, but it can be justified. The Colts don't give a damn about preseason games. In fact, they battled the Packers in Week 3 of the exhibition last year. Green Bay rolled, 59-24.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Mike McCarthy is 10-12 in preseason games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Colts 10
    Packers -9 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Packers 24, Colts 21





    St. Louis Rams (2-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
    Line: Rams by 2.5.

    Friday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Preseason games are beneath Todd Haley, who has an abysmal 1-9 record in exhibition contests. Steve Spagnuolo, meanwhile, is a solid 8-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 8-2 in preseason games.
  • Steve Spagnuolo is 2-0 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Todd Haley is 1-9 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Chiefs 17
    Rams -2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Rams 14, Chiefs 10






    Miami Dolphins (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Buccaneers by 4.5.

    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Raheem Morris is pissed about getting debacled by the Patriots, but I'm still taking the points. Tony Sparano (11-3) really cares about winning preseason games. Morris (4-6), not so much.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Tony Sparano is 11-3 in preseason games.
  • Raheem Morris is 4-6 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Buccaneers 20
    Dolphins +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Buccaneers 17, Dolphins 13


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    Ram Man 11-09-2012 07:33 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.134 (total posts: 1)
    5     5

    Two team Parlay of the Year....

    Alabama -13.5 vs. Tex A&M
    Col St. +1 vs. UNLV

    Tex A&M is 2-27 ats when losing as a road dog (0-15 when coming off a win).

    UNLV has lost last 20 road games and 46 of last 49. Why are they favored?

    Jmac 11-09-2012 07:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    4     5

    Just a little input here good buddy of mine
    One Heck of a capper loves the under tonight!
    Take it for what it's worth !
    theguru66 11-09-2012 07:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.137 (total posts: 5)
    12     6

    @@theguru66

    Yes I like to use 60% as a bench mark of success and although I'm only 6 games over for the entire season I personally think it's been successful, why? Because it's better then being 6 games under and down bank roll. Anytime you can have a + symbol in front of a number it is a success no? Is it where I want it to be, no, not at all but you can't get to 60% without being 55% first. Not to mention, it's free and as always you can totally ignore my posts and plays.

    @VirginX

    Stay tuned, I'll have something shortly.

    For all of the guys that don't like to play NBA I know there is a NBA section but I've been working this thread for a while and don't like to switch back and fourth until way after the NFL is over.
    Jayden 11-09-2012 06:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.242 (total posts: 12)
    5     5

    I should have let you guys know but here was my reasoning. First half was because in the last couple games jaguars scored 0 points in the first half. They only covered because of MJD. No MJD means easy for the colts to win.
    Jayden 11-09-2012 06:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.242 (total posts: 12)
    5     6

    Went 4-0 last night with
    1st half colts -2.5
    1st half under 21
    Colts -3
    And under whole game. 43
    omie_g 11-09-2012 06:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.94 (total posts: 24)
    7     5

    Walter,

    I quoted your crazy trends on the Tennessee game on my blog, I hope that's ok. I tried to format and quote it properly. Let me know if you have issues with it.

    http://tossinghorseshoes.blogspot.ca/2012/11/week-10-tossing-horseshoes.html
    chuckster 11-09-2012 05:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    9     8

    So far this is what I have in NFL: Three team par with Indy -3 (won), Denver -3.5, Seattle -6.5. Have a 5 team 14 point teaser going with: Jacksonville +17.5 (won), Carolina +18, Saints +16.5, Miami +8, one open spot. Three team 10 point teaser with Patriots -1, Niners -1.5, Steelers -2. Leaning real good in starting up a 10 point three team Total play in the NFL. The three contest I'm looking at are: Saints/Falcons Over, Patriots/Bills Over, Chargers/Bucs Over. That's it right now, GLTA.
    PureLock 11-09-2012 04:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    6     24

    @All people out there, I need some idea, I hardly play Under/Over in football. But tonight I really like Under(43.5). Any thought bettors out there. I do need to be open mind, and colect all the info before I go big. We help each other here guys.

    I see you all tomorrow, I'm hit over 65% of my college football picks this season. I have some early win tomorrow. Later all
    wow, watch a niner game for once. 11-09-2012 04:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.219 (total posts: 1)
    13     8

    Wow you have no clue what's going on. Anthony davis the weak link? He made pro football focus's all pro team and if you ever watched a 49er game when they weren't the only game on or a least read an article or two you would know that almost all of the sacks alex smith has taken are either coverage or because he refused to through the ball. He stated on numerous occasions that he should have gotten rid of the ball and not taken the sack and that it was his fault not the line.
    Virgin X 11-09-2012 04:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 4)
    6     6

    @ Guru66

    You like anything in NBA tonite?I really do enjoy your input.Because of you i follow this site.Best handicapper ive seen!nobodys perfect.Thanks for all the work you do!
    Newbie2011 11-09-2012 03:59 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.151 (total posts: 1)
    8     5

    Have a few minutes. Al Cien, I was leaning Seahawks & Bears
    AL CIEN 11-09-2012 03:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.10 (total posts: 6)
    5     7

    Locking in the faves now and will wait for the lines on my dogs to go up...
    GStar 11-09-2012 03:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    21     24

    Do you guys know there's an NBA forum? Can we keep the NBA discussions in there instead of cluttering this one?
    AL CIEN 11-09-2012 03:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.10 (total posts: 4)
    7     11

    Went 2-0 last night on the Colts and the under and 4-5 on last weeks picks.. Nice way to start the weekend and here are my picks:

    TICKET

    **************************

    SAINTS +3

    LIONS -1.5

    COWBOYS -1.5

    JETS +6

    All for 5 UNITS each

    Pick of the Week:

    TEXANS +2 10 UNITS

    **************************



    PureLock 11-09-2012 03:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    8     7

    I'm loving College Basketball, tonight is open night College Hoops, but I usually don't play first week. I want to see how they play first. Whoever, play tonight good luck, for me I think the best thing is waiting for the first week go by.....


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 24


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
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    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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