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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 2, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I was cautious last week because of the lockout, but I think things should be back to normal now. Mike Tomlin looked like he was going to cry after the loss to Washington. He's one of the most intense people on the planet, so I have to believe that he'll rebound with a victory over Andy Reid, who doesn't care about the preseason.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 13-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 after preseason losses.
  • Andy Reid is 19-30 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Eagles 17
    Steelers -3 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Steelers 24, Eagles 14





    Washington Redskins (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
    Line: Redskins by 5.5.

    Friday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't give a damn about these silly preseason games. Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky should combine for half-a-dozen interceptions, as Mike Shanahan is going to put extra effort into figuring out who is quarterback is going to be.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 44-21 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 8-5 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-8 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Colts 10
    Redskins -5.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Redskins 16, Colts 3






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
    Line: Ravens by 6.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Preseason games are beneath Todd Haley, who has an abysmal 1-8 record in exhibition contests. After looking terrible in Week 1, the Ravens will look to prove that they aren't completely inept. I'd bet more units if this line wasn't so high.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Todd Haley is 1-8 in preseason games.
  • Todd Haley is 0-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 2-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 13
    Ravens -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Ravens 31, Chiefs 13


    Leave a comment

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    GStar 11-11-2012 04:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.94 (total posts: 32)
    12     5

    @Detroit Lions

    fsck youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!!!!!!!
    Dollahz518 11-11-2012 04:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.70 (total posts: 2)
    3     5

    4 O clock pics lets get em workin giants got me down right now need a strong 4 o clock come back
    GStar 11-11-2012 03:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.94 (total posts: 32)
    3     41

    @Kenny

    Isn't putting the # of units equivalent to a "confidence meter"? Obviously if I'm on a pick for 10 units, I REALLY like it..
    GStar 11-11-2012 03:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.94 (total posts: 32)
    4     5

    Lions are really fscking my sh!t up right now. Stafford better fscking get it together.
    Kenny 11-11-2012 03:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.64 (total posts: 1)
    14     15

    Why do people put their units down? Its not like anyone is keeping track of their money lol... Why not just do a confidence meter 1 to 10 confidence
    I'm Ram Man and I suck 11-11-2012 03:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.28 (total posts: 1)
    3     6

    I completely ignored the Giants being overvalued at 3 1/2-4 pts on the road vs a decent team coming off a bye. They shouldnt be favored by that much on the road vs. any good team and I bet on an 8-1 ATS road trend instead. The reason why the Bengals were the right play in this game is the same reason why Philly will win big today...the Cowboys are a popularly-bet team who shouldnt be favored.

    Philly and Under. Eagles' last 8 division games have gone under the total. Book it.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 02:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    7     5

    @PureLock

    Yes, but WHY do you like those picks?

    PureLock 11-11-2012 01:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    3     22

    PLAY OF THE DAY:

    TOP PLAY: OAKLAND(+7.5) FOR 20 UNITS

    TOP PLAY: SD/TB OVER(47) FOR 20 UNITS

    PARLEY OF THE DAY: OAK + OVER SD/TB FOR 20 UNITS

    I'M GOING TO TAKE IT ALL BACK.

    GLTA
    Tanman 11-11-2012 01:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.216 (total posts: 1)
    2     5

    @andy - I totally agree. The only faded the darling teams that are typically over bet. Pats, Giants, Broncos. The spreads on those 3 didn't make sense to me either. I think vegas is depending on those 3 this wk.
    GURUBALL 11-11-2012 01:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.33 (total posts: 5)
    208     7

    PLAY OF THE DAY

    (CINCI +4) 10 units
    (BUCS -3) 10 units
    (BILLS +13.5) 5 units
    (TITANS +6.5) 1 unit

    UP 20 units lets keep chuggin'!


    GLTA!

    omie_g 11-11-2012 01:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.94 (total posts: 24)
    8     4

    My Week 10 Tossing Horseshoes

    Bengals +4.5
    Lions -2.5
    Buccaneers -3
    Titans +6
    Bears -1

    Went 5-0 last week. Let's strike it rich again! Here are my explanation of my picks.
    http://tossinghorseshoes.blogspot.ca/2012/11/week-10-tossing-horseshoes.html
    Ivar 11-11-2012 01:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.69 (total posts: 27)
    6     4

    Guru: I think we're on the same wavelength. Like all 5 of those picks except Tennessee/Miami.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 01:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    21     4

    For all the non-vampires just a quick repost before the 1 o'clocks!! Good Luck everyone!!

    Sorry guys, once again I had a busy Saturday and couldn't post a whole punch of plays for you (NCAA and NBA, I loved Denver tonight, should have posted that one for you guys, my bad). Then I got home and fell asleep. It's late and I want to get a fresh start in the morning so let's get right to it. You know the drill, train at 31-25-3 this year and in the last four weeks when I've had a good Saturday I usually follow it with a good Sunday. Last week I didn't have a good Saturday and same thing happened on Sunday. Well Saturday this week I had a good day so I am looking forward to tomorrow. Here we go....

    1pm, Tamapa Bay is coming off two ROAD victories in a row, I don't have time but I wonder when the last time the Bucs won back to back road games. That has to have them beaming with confidence and I like them in this spot against the Chargers. The Chargers aren't a good road team and they hate going to the east coast. They lost their last road game to the BROWNS, yes the do-do Browns! Oh and they only scored 2 field goals while they did it. I also like the Vincent Jackson story line. Here is what I got on this game, Chargers coming east, on the road, Jackson, home field, chance to go 5-4 and maybe make some noise, and great line value. Tampa should win this game if they want to prove to themselves that they are for real and the Chargers, well, they lost to the Browns. Bucs playing steady right now, run and pass, they win 24-16.

    1pm, I'm pretty sure that Vegas is nervous about putting a big number on the Dolphins. This team is playing very well and should be more of a favorite then 6 hosting the Titans. But their still the Dolphins and Vegas doesn't want to scare anyone away. Miami's defense is very good and Tennessee's is not. Miami's offense is not great but the Titans are going to have a hard time stopping Reggie Bush. I can't believe I just wrote that but he's been on fire lately. This game will start out slow but eventually the Dolphins will pull away and after at least 3 more turnover by the Titans they win this game by double digits. Something like 30-14. Lay the 6.

    1pm, I want you guys to go back two weeks and remember what Peyton Manning did to the New Orleans Saints. He picked them apart like he was in his back yard and now they have to face Matty Ice and his assassin ninja receivers. Atlanta gets no credit for being 8-0 huh? They're in a dome so that isn't going to be a factor and if they score a few TD's early the crowd will be out of it. Falcons are going to end the Saints season and as much as it's a feel good story that the Saints win this game as it really is their "super bowl" game, they just aren't good enough on defense to stop Atlanta. They can't stop the run either. This game is going to be ugly. 38-17 dirty birds.

    4:05, The Jets in Seattle? Really? I'm not going to waste anyone's time on this one. Come on, how are the Jets going to score points in this game. Seattle has one of the best home field's in football and the Jets couldn't score on a high school cheerleader. I am predicting that the Jets score a grand total of 3 points but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they score none. I'm serious. In fact I'm going to go 24-3. Lay the 6.

    4:25, The big bad NFC match-up between the Cowboys and the Eagles. Not what it was cracked up to be huh? The Cowboys stink, they're fractured and broken. The Eagles look like clowns out there. Vick is just going through the motions. Reid is somehow not being asked why Shady McCoy isn't touching the ball almost every down. I feel like he's purposely trying to make Vick look like this because he knows that he needs another QB to win. I bet he could do things to protect Vick but just doesn't care, he needs Vick to fail. Anyway, there is going to be a lot of turnovers and sacks and fumbles and....POINTS! I wouldn't be surprised if both teams hit 30 but I have it at 30-27. Either way, it soars over.

    Sunday's NFL Picks:

    Tampa Bay -3
    Miami -6
    Atlanta -2 1/2
    Seattle -6
    Dallas/Phily over 44 1/2

    Good Luck to everyone today, enjoy the games and please remember to mind the gap.
    chuckster 11-11-2012 01:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     5

    Carters little liver pills huh??? Put me down as another who is old enough to know about them. LOL. Anyway, I'm not saying the Saints are a good bet straight line, no way, not with that Horrific Defense. However I did put them in a big teaser and have the Saints +16.5. I think the best play for this game might be the Over. I expect Brees and his offense to put up at least 28 points in this ballgame. The problem Saints fans is that Atlanta could put up 40. I've also have Over in another teaser going Over 44 for this game. Desperate Home Underdog team with a top 3 QB??? I'd be very very careful if your playing the straight line in this one. Anyway good luck to everyone today.
    PureLock red flags 11-11-2012 01:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.86 (total posts: 60)
    123     118

    His choppy English comes and goes
    What kind of better uses "lock" in their name.
    He threatens to quit posting after a small streak.
    Once Everyone is on his tip he throws out a bunch of shiit picks.
    Wake up people.


    NFL Free Agents - April 19


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 26


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
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    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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