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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 2, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I was cautious last week because of the lockout, but I think things should be back to normal now. Mike Tomlin looked like he was going to cry after the loss to Washington. He's one of the most intense people on the planet, so I have to believe that he'll rebound with a victory over Andy Reid, who doesn't care about the preseason.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 13-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 after preseason losses.
  • Andy Reid is 19-30 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Eagles 17
    Steelers -3 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Steelers 24, Eagles 14





    Washington Redskins (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
    Line: Redskins by 5.5.

    Friday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't give a damn about these silly preseason games. Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky should combine for half-a-dozen interceptions, as Mike Shanahan is going to put extra effort into figuring out who is quarterback is going to be.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 44-21 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 8-5 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-8 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Colts 10
    Redskins -5.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Redskins 16, Colts 3






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
    Line: Ravens by 6.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Preseason games are beneath Todd Haley, who has an abysmal 1-8 record in exhibition contests. After looking terrible in Week 1, the Ravens will look to prove that they aren't completely inept. I'd bet more units if this line wasn't so high.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Todd Haley is 1-8 in preseason games.
  • Todd Haley is 0-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 2-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 13
    Ravens -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Ravens 31, Chiefs 13


    Leave a comment

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    Mike P. 10-03-2012 07:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.10 (total posts: 8)
    10     6

    I like walters take on going against the public - i think he may have finally figured it out, although i will admit i dont read his picks as thoroughly as I used to.

    Here's a telling link i think everyone should have bookmarked as it's helped me out thus far:

    http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/trends/league/season.html

    away favorites 39% ats
    home favorites 36% ats

    away dogs 63% ats
    home dogs 60% ats

    I know its tough to bet on teams like JAX, NYJ, INDY and CLE with the way we percieve them, just keep these stats in mind before placing bets...

    thoughts?

    GLTA

    Go Pats!
    Goose 10-03-2012 06:36 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.235 (total posts: 3)
    10     7

    Hey Teamtakeum, I watched the video. What is the subscribe part about at the end? I love the Pitt pick.
    JR 10-03-2012 06:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.88 (total posts: 1)
    10     5

    Ya I agree with CIN backers, I know Miami has a good run D and decent D all around but as Walt says it, take away 3 points to a neutral site, and is CIN only .5 or 1.5 (depending on some sites) better then MIA? Not to mention CIN D isn't too shabby either, I can't put my money on a rookie QB on the road even if he threw for over 400 last week. If anything it points to the UNDER which probably to me is a safer play, but I'll take CIN!
    Walt is on the bubble 10-03-2012 05:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 22)
    7     5

    "I'm still taking Miami though, as Cincinnati tends to struggle when favored."

    Pure BS Walt. Cin favored against skins (WON) and last week against Chiefs (WON)Cin is playing at home against a rookie QB.

    Cmon man....
    BHPicks 10-03-2012 05:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    5     132

    FREE PICK:

    Indians -120

    To read the analysis for this pick go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/freepicks.html

    PREMIUM PICKS:

    Red Sox - Yankees
    Twins - Blue Jays

    To purchase these picks go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/premiumpicks.html
    GStar 10-03-2012 05:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    5     6

    @Don't Worry About It

    I went 4/4 for NFL picks but lost money on my CFL + NCAAF picks.

    Browns +12 Correct
    Chargers -0.5 Correct
    Denver -6.5 Correct
    Bears +3.5 Correct
    Calgary -4.5 (2 Units) Correct
    Montreal -1.5 Incorrect
    Winnipeg -2.5 Incorrect
    HAW +27.5 Incorrect
    Travis Dub 10-03-2012 05:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.17 (total posts: 1)
    11     5

    Hey, for some strange reason I love this sight, anyway African American here, in school to become a Mental Health Counselor. Just curious about the disdain for Spanish Heritage Month thingy...I know there are lots of really racist white people out there. I don't really care about them and i rarely say anything about them. They're kind of like grass or trees, just there. If you don't like Spanish Heritage Month, why do I need to know how much you don't like it? You said it yourself, you don't live with any Hispanics so why do you care? Is it just the fact that you think you're being told to and you don't like the appearance of being told what to do? Hit me up when you can, no, you don't have to hit me up because you can just think whatever it is that you think...except the Dolphins +3.5!!! The Bengals all day 28-20...
    Ryan 10-03-2012 04:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.66 (total posts: 1)
    15     6

    I agree with WTF. Lets get these pics in before 5:00
    WTF 10-03-2012 04:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx19.7 (total posts: 3)
    5     6

    @Matt - No Wednesday game. Just the pool I am in all picks must be in on Wednesday.
    Erik, San Diego 10-03-2012 04:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.96 (total posts: 32)
    5     5

    5 Dimes has the Browns +10 for -135, would you take that over +8 1/2 for -110??
    Matt 10-03-2012 04:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.34 (total posts: 4)
    5     5

    @ WTF

    Jeez, what's the rush? Is there a Wednesday afternoon game I am not aware of?
    Matt 10-03-2012 04:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.34 (total posts: 4)
    5     5

    Last night I put down a nice sized wager on the Steelers at -3. Wanted to get my money in before the spread moved to 3.5. Walt is dead-on in his analysis and I took Pitt for the same reasons. Take Pitt and watch the cash flow in.
    Dont Worry About It 10-03-2012 04:16 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.143 (total posts: 2)
    5     6

    G Star. How did you do last week. I missed your picks
    GStar 10-03-2012 04:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.138 (total posts: 13)
    5     9

    Looking at week 5 right now I'm liking ARZ -1.5, PHI +3.5, GB -7.5 and MIN -5.5.
    GURUBALL 10-03-2012 03:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx62.7 (total posts: 46)
    9     5

    THE LAST TWO WEEKS THE UNDERDOGS OUTWEIGHED THE FAVORITES IN THE NFL, THIS WEEK SO FAR MANY OF MY LEANS ARE FAVORITES. WILL THAT HURT ME, THATS THE QUESTION HAHA BUT I DO LIKE THE DOG TOMORROW IN THE NFL. WE ALSO HAVE 3 COLLEGE GAMES TOMORROW! BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD BE BACK TOMORROW WITH SOME HITTERS.

    GLTA, PAYYYCEE!!

    #GURUBALL#49ER


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Aug. 1


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


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    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
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    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
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    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
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    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
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    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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