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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 2, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I was cautious last week because of the lockout, but I think things should be back to normal now. Mike Tomlin looked like he was going to cry after the loss to Washington. He's one of the most intense people on the planet, so I have to believe that he'll rebound with a victory over Andy Reid, who doesn't care about the preseason.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 13-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 after preseason losses.
  • Andy Reid is 19-30 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Eagles 17
    Steelers -3 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Steelers 24, Eagles 14





    Washington Redskins (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
    Line: Redskins by 5.5.

    Friday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't give a damn about these silly preseason games. Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky should combine for half-a-dozen interceptions, as Mike Shanahan is going to put extra effort into figuring out who is quarterback is going to be.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 44-21 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 8-5 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-8 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Colts 10
    Redskins -5.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Redskins 16, Colts 3






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
    Line: Ravens by 6.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Preseason games are beneath Todd Haley, who has an abysmal 1-8 record in exhibition contests. After looking terrible in Week 1, the Ravens will look to prove that they aren't completely inept. I'd bet more units if this line wasn't so high.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Todd Haley is 1-8 in preseason games.
  • Todd Haley is 0-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 2-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 13
    Ravens -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Ravens 31, Chiefs 13


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    Fade Walt 11-02-2011 05:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.211 (total posts: 45)
    168     91

    This weeks fades against Walt, doubling the units:

    New Orleans -8 4 units
    NY Jets +2 1 unit
    KC -4 8 units
    SF -3.5 2 units
    Dallas -11.5 2 units
    Oakland -8 6 units
    San Diego +5.5 6 units
    Pittsburgh -3 2 units
    Philly -8 2 units

    Locked these in today...skipped the Arizona/St. Louis game.
    Joe 11-02-2011 04:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.29 (total posts: 1)
    17     72

    You suck man.
    Brian 11-02-2011 03:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 3)
    43     16

    Still a ton of bad bets imo but I think you'll win more than once this week. So its kinda like coming in 4th place at the special olympics.
    Zach 11-02-2011 03:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.223 (total posts: 4)
    11     11

    @FUqer

    IMO I feel like keeping a good RB like Gore or MJD is better then trading them away to as you said "a rival" maybe try to counter for him to give you another reciever. Gore and MDJ are 2nd round draft picks in many leagues, I consider VJ a 4-5th round pick in many leagues so were not getting much value in return. Well I think VJ upside will grow since like you said they are a 2nd half of a season team, with Rivers struggling this year more then the previous years, it really has me worried. Gates will steal catches as well once he is 100%. Tough call I think if your not on the Nate Washington bandwagon, try to pick up Jerome Simpson. Or like I said before counter for VJ and another reciever on his team. If that isn't a good option trade someone else in your league who is desperate for a solid RB, that way you could get a kings ransom for a good WR.
    FUqer 11-02-2011 02:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.94 (total posts: 63)
    18     10

    @Joe Spencer

    I do 6 teamers every week and hit on them quite often.

    My favorite sixer this week would be.

    Atlanta -7.5
    49ers -4
    Raiders -7
    Packers -4
    Bengals +3
    Bears +8.5

    Them spreads you have are kind out of wack.

    Atlanta is -7.5
    Packers are -4
    Bears are +8.5

    Out of the spreads you have I would prolly go with...

    Dolphins +10
    Bucs +10
    Raiders -7
    Philly -3
    Browns +14
    Giants +10
    Joe Spencer 11-02-2011 01:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.199 (total posts: 1)
    18     11

    We have a six-team parlay pick sheet at work with the following spreads:

    Atlanta -14 at Indy; NYJ at Buff -3; Sea at Dallas -14; Miami at KC -10; SF -10 at Wash; Cleve at Hou -14; TB at NO -10; Den at Oak -7; Cincy -3 at Tenn; NYG at NE -10; Stl at Ari -3; GB -7 at SD; Balt at Pitt -3 and Chi at Philly -3.

    Which 6 should I play with most confidence?
    yuck 11-02-2011 12:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 2)
    15     10

    Walt's new strategy is based on what the mafia would do??

    Holy desperation Batman!
    simon 11-02-2011 11:59 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.48 (total posts: 4)
    17     14

    oh man, your ONE OF THE WORST PICKSERS IV EVER SEEM, I SWEAR TO GOD I SHOULD HAVE YOUR JOB, if you need some tips on how to pick message me
    andrew 11-02-2011 11:57 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.48 (total posts: 4)
    18     13

    BUDDY YOUR CRAP AT MAKING PICKS. UR NEGATIVE - MONEY EVERY WEEEK UR ACTUALLY GARBAGE U DONT DESERVE TO BE PICKING. IM BETTER THEN UR ASS. RAVENS BEAT THE STEELERS? AND TENNESEE BEAT CINCII? ARE U STUPID LEARN HOW TO PICK RETARTD
    teaspoon 11-02-2011 11:55 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.29 (total posts: 3)
    14     21

    This is the 49's 5th trip to the eastern time zone this year! Brutal schedule, there coach has done a brilliant job managing this and his team believes in him. Walt read what you write. My units big time go to the 49's. Could you imagine the 49's could possibly have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Look at there schedule.
    Dirk41 11-02-2011 11:48 am xxx.xxx.xxx.153 (total posts: 1)
    15     13

    I don't see how the Dolphins could possibly beat us at home. This one could be uglier for Moore than it was for Palmer and Boller two weeks ago.
    Nor will they not befocused for this one. this is a must win, the rest of the schedule is brutal, except for the 2 bronco games.
    question 11-02-2011 11:12 am xxx.xxx.xxx4.65 (total posts: 2)
    30     23

    all you did is talk about how the redskins wont be able to cover..and then you take them to cover?
    Chad 11-02-2011 11:03 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65)
    13     12

    Uh, I think picking against the Steelers this week is kinda genius. The Ravens match up well against them, and even though the Steelers are "out for revenge" I think they'll be lucky to scrape out a 1 point win. Ravens +3.5 is one of my favorite plays this week.
    Matt 11-02-2011 10:21 am xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 1)
    13     12

    Keep picking against the Steelers, genius.
    Walt Coleman 11-02-2011 10:02 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.85 (total posts: 5)
    14     12

    Hey, Walter? Just heard I was gonna be reffing the Ravens/Steelers game. Go ahead and burn your money now.


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 24


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
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    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
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    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
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    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
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    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

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    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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