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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6





    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23






    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


    Leave a comment

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    buddyo96701 11-12-2012 03:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.161 (total posts: 19)
    4     6

    Walturd, you ugly dog. Keep up the good picks. Riding on your back has given me 2 winning weekends in a row. I refuse to bet on Chiefs tonight so I'm taking the winnings from from a great Sunday morning and regrouping for next week. Don't gloat like a pig when you win and don't cry like a baby when you lose. Oh, by the way you should make Thursdays a no play cuz that is where you really stink as bad as Andy Reid or Rex Ryan. Seriously you need to tighten your Thursdays up a bit.
    GURUBALL 11-12-2012 03:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 6)
    12     4

    UP ABOUT 45 THIS WEEK! NEEDED THAT 1.
    ON THAT NOTE IMA TAKE THE POINTS TONIGHT...
    LETS KEEP IT UP Y'ALL!! GLTA!
    PAYYYCEE FROM THE WILD WILD WEST..
    chuckster 11-12-2012 03:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     5

    @Walter: Hey bud, just wanted to say, real solid capping so far this season. Amazing that the haters and douche bags that were calling for your head a few weeks ago are strangely quiet now.... Huh. LOL. I sometimes doubted your sanity, but Never your football handicapping skills. Continued good picking sir. Chiefs plus the points for 1 unit?? Like I said earlier, maybe Nuts but successful. GLTA. Thinking about a start up 10 point teaser and getting the Steelers at -2.5. Congrats to all winners.
    With all my guts 11-12-2012 02:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    22     14

    I Pick The Steelers to win by at least 2 TDs, and have doubts the Chiefs can even get lucky enough to score.
    chuckster 11-12-2012 01:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     5

    Mixed results for the weekend in NFL. Got my Par win Colts-Broncos-Seahawks...Nice. However lost my two big teaser plays, the worst of them Niners -1.5 with the Friggin game ending in a tie!!! Both teams failed in their field goal attempts in OT. Ended up in positive coin territory again, but could have been so much better. Congrats to all winners.
    JETHRO 11-12-2012 12:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    3     5

    @EAZYE @ANTDOGZ
    THANKS FOR THE INFO. CONSIDERING ALL AND THE WEATHER I THINK I'LL DO WHAT I DID LAST NIGHT AND REDUCE MY PLAY ON THE SIDE AND INCREASE ON THE UNDER. GRAB THE UNDER EARLY BEFORE IT DROPS LIKE LAST NIGHT.
    GOOD LUCK!
    Roll Tide 11-12-2012 12:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.122 (total posts: 51)
    10     6

    @ Walt
    4 out of last 5 winning weeks, nice going. You really saved my ass on the Miami game, I was all over Miami until I read your review...keep up the great work, thanks!!!
    Paul 11-12-2012 12:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.30 (total posts: 1)
    115     7

    The Bears still suck!
    Danielo65 11-12-2012 12:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 72)
    3     4

    Pittburgh 13-9 just a year ago.

    The under is the play tonight.
    Erik, San Diego 11-12-2012 11:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.96 (total posts: 32)
    15     4

    Very nice week Walter! You've been incredibly consistent since week 2, keep it up and thank you!
    madturk 11-12-2012 11:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    6     8

    this is hard to believe but i have
    $35.00 to win $1300.00 on the under 42
    100-800 und 49
    220-860 pit -5.5
    80-838 pit -12.5
    all these bets started with indy and the under on thursday
    the 35-1300 is a $5.00 7 team par, 5.00 6 team par and a 25.00 5 team, im going to hedge with kc+ 13 hope for 13.5 and over 40 right now waiting for 39.5
    maybe middle the man
    on the pitt game tonight
    Antdogz 11-12-2012 11:37 am xxx.xxx.xxx.185 (total posts: 27)
    12     4

    When the steelers win they win by an average of 9 points...

    when the chiefs lose they lose by an average of 16 points...

    average those two together and the magic number is 12.5


    Im leaning toward a play on chiefs. steelers play a very conservative game. they dont care how much they win by, just as long as they win!

    Im calling Pitt 21-13
    Eazye 11-12-2012 11:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.64 (total posts: 11)
    4     7

    @JETHRO

    Pgh is 23-5 at home on Monday night games and 12-6 ATS on monday night since 1980. KC is 5-7 ATS as underdog on the road on Monday night since 1980.
    My only concern is Pgh usually struggles or plays down to teams they should blow out, Ex. Tenn,Oak.
    JETHRO 11-12-2012 11:30 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    4     8

    THANKS MADTURK.
    FOUND WHERE PITTS. HAS WON 14 IN A ROW AT HOME ON MNF BY AN AVG OF MORE THAN TWO TOUCHDOWNS.
    madturk 11-12-2012 11:16 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    6     4

    chicagos rain will be in pitt tonight


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
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    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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