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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6





    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23






    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


    Leave a comment

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    Walter 02-03-2014 01:53 am xxx.xxx.xxx4.88 (total posts: 34)
    17     1

    @SNtheGambit - Bills were not my Oct. Pick of the Month. I dropped that pick to zero units when Jeff Tuel was named the starter.
    SNtheGambit 02-03-2014 01:36 am xxx.xxx.xxx.139 (total posts: 25)
    2     5

    just want to remind everybody Walt isn't 6-0 on picks of the month.. I remember (n lost following that pick) you picked the Bills +7 against the Chiefs and KC won 23-10 with 2 pick 6's.. just wanted to point that out but

    you still the man Walt! and love your site.. aiighty
    SNtheGambit 02-03-2014 01:17 am xxx.xxx.xxx.139 (total posts: 25)
    8     1

    and nice pick Walter with Seattle and congrats putting 7 units on it.. everyone posts they're picks and never gives you props on your Own Website..

    you the man Walt
    Dave 02-03-2014 01:08 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 3)
    7     1

    Told you mickey you dont know what your talking about....told you denver has terrible defense!!!!!!
    SNtheGambit 02-03-2014 01:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx.139 (total posts: 25)
    5     1

    under estimated seahawks n lost on
    Denver 1 unit but won on the
    Over 48 1 unit so broke even.. so its ncaab bracket bets and all until next season.

    GLTA
    bigredtlc 02-03-2014 12:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.60 (total posts: 16)
    2     1

    Just watched highlights on NFL.com. Interesting stat. Some people posted about how there was no 12th man in MetLife, and yet SEA scored 12 seconds into each half. Hmmm. How appropriate! You can't make this stuff up.
    bigredtlc 02-03-2014 12:36 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.60 (total posts: 16)
    6     1

    Forgot to give Walt props. He has offered good info all year long. People can take it or leave it but at least the info is there. The trends he gives are always nice to add to my logic for a game. So yes, congrats to you Walt! Great job.

    @madturk - just learned my pool winnings are $7K so I am very happy. Now if I can figure some way to get my money out of my online betting account! So easy to get in, so hard to get out. It's Hotel California. Har har.

    I may dabble in NBA a little. I will see you on that site. Let's see if we can keep the good mojo going.
    NY STEW 02-03-2014 12:33 am xxx.xxx.xxx.146 (total posts: 2)
    7     1

    Walt Thanks buddy for a great season!! you killed it and gave my wife diamond earrings!! Now she will let me gamble like a mad man! Can't thank you enough keep it rolling till next year!!
    D_nice 02-03-2014 12:27 am xxx.xxx.xxx82.7 (total posts: 20)
    4     1

    Nice one Walter..pick of the month came thru again...hope everyone had good day
    The Truth 02-03-2014 12:14 am xxx.xxx.xxx.125 (total posts: 78)
    1     9

    Also stay tuned for my reality tv show.

    It has been picked up by a major tv network.

    We started filming and it looks like a huge success. Still working on names.
    At first we were going to call it, "The Truth beats the Sharps".

    Still working on it..

    The Truth Is Out......
    madturk 02-03-2014 12:13 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.56 (total posts: 36)
    2     1

    YA! dont bad mouth VAIL he is a good guy
    @WALTER= what DMD said
    dmd 02-03-2014 12:08 am xxx.xxx.xxx.195 (total posts: 1)
    5     1

    Walt, congrats on your season and of course on your Seattle pick.Your site has been informational, interesting and humorous. What more can you ask for on a football site. Keep up the good work. Maintaining this site can't be easy.
    madturk 02-03-2014 12:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.56 (total posts: 36)
    2     1

    @WALTER= OH YA good call, 6-0 on your 7 unit picks they all took balls, yours must be swollen I hope your new girlfriend appreciates your HARD work. Thank you, I all ways pay close attention to your top picks and have found enough reasons to side with you on them, but lots of times only after you stuck your REP on the line first. GOOD JOB
    The Truth 02-03-2014 12:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx.125 (total posts: 78)
    12     58

    Just made another 10k on blackjack. going to hit up the Rhino and take a look at some more skanks and bottle rats.

    It's only money. "LIVE YOUR LIFE ".
    The Truth.

    I will be back in Palo ALTO Tuesday MORNING , making my next million dollars..

    If you're in The Bay HMU.

    The Truth is out.........
    MeSmiles 02-02-2014 11:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.175 (total posts: 2)
    1     1

    Only meant vail btw, jerk!!


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 23


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - June 10


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
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