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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6





    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23






    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


    Leave a comment

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    Danielo65 09-28-2012 11:17 am xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 72)
    6     6

    @NeedHelp, I'm considering that, though my book is offering +27. BYU's offense might not even score 27, let alone win by that many...
    freefootballguru 09-28-2012 11:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.220 (total posts: 13)
    15     6

    San Francisco -4 @ NY Jets

    I like the 49ers to bounce back after getting surprised by the Vikings. The 49ers stayed east after last Sunday's game so the travel shouldn't be an issue. The Jets are at home but are reeling from the loss of Revis and the offense has been struggling to get anything going. It won't get any easier against one of the toughest D's in the league. I look for San Fran's D to stifle Mark Sanchez and the Jets ground game while Alex Smith plays smart and efficient.

    Minnesota @ Detroit Over 46.5

    I think this game will be higher scoring than expected. Minnesota will want to run the ball with Adrian Peterson but Christian Ponder has been playing well and he gets Jerome Simpson back in the mix. The Vikings have been excited about Simpson as they think he brings a deep ball dynamic to the offense. It looks like Stafford will play and even if he doesn't, Shaun Hill can lead this explosive team up and down the field.

    New England -4 @ Buffalo

    The Patriots have to bounce back after getting shocked at home against the Cardinals and losing a heart breaker in Baltimore. There is a reverse line movement in this one but I have to go with the Pats here. Belichick will have his team extra prepared to go on the road and take on a divisional foe in a very important game for them. Buffalo's backfield is banged up and even if Fred Jackson and or C.J. Spiller play, I don't think it'll be enough to beat an angry Patriots team.

    Tennessee @ Houston Over 45

    We all know Houston has a powerful offense and defense but I think the Titans are coming into their own and finding an offensive identity. I see this being a more competitive game than expected and the teams should cruise past the over/under total of 45.

    San Diego @ Kansas City Over 44

    I've been having some luck with the totals so far this season and here's another one I like. When they're clicking, I think both offenses are strong and this one could turn into a wild AFC West shootout.

    Oakland @ Denver -6.5

    The Broncos have had a tough early season schedule and even though the Raiders had a nice comeback at home against the Steelers last week, I see them as the inferior team here. This is a nasty divisional rivalry but I think this is the game that Peyton really gets it going in front of the home crowd and the defense should smother and harass Carson Palmer.

    Miami +5.5 @ Arizona

    This is a gut feeling that Arizona comes back to earth here and Miami comes in and plays this one close. Miami is playing tough D right now and Kolb is due to make some big mistakes. Tannehill is playing fairly smart and isn't forcing the issue but the Cardinals also have a very tough D. The reverse line movement was enough for me to go ahead and take the points.




    Fade walter all year 09-28-2012 11:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx.139 (total posts: 28)
    7     13

    Follow me @stattrac on twitter. Over 2700 followers. Im legit n went 3-0 on nfl/ncaaf last night.

    Last year i came to this website and bash on Walter on how horrible his picks are an i continue to get bash on by his fans. I dont know whats up with these Walter fan freaks but it seems to me like they love losing.

    I posted my plays here and went like 13-2 and Took the dogs yesterday cuz Im cool like that. If your tired of losing, follow me on twitter. If you like to pay your bookies electricity bills then keep following your boy Walter. That mother f sucs bad.

    Twitter
    @stattrac
    Walter Sucks 09-28-2012 10:50 am xxx.xxx.xxx.220 (total posts: 13)
    10     6

    Walt, I like the Miami pick, I'm all over that as well. In fact, I might even play Miami ML. Zona due for a letdown and Kolb comes back to earth.
    NeedHelp 09-28-2012 10:50 am xxx.xxx.xxx.191 (total posts: 1)
    7     7

    Hawaii +26.5 against BYU? Think Hawaii covers???????????
    Henry 09-28-2012 10:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 5)
    3     6

    GSTAR - great pick,I'm always a big believer in big underdogs playing tough against division rival. Anything 7pts or over within the division, usually I take the points. Thats just me. Congrats.
    @theguru66 09-28-2012 10:13 am xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 3)
    4     3

    Walter brings us to this website and I've never seen him brag about his winnings or about being on some imaginary train. If you're gonna bring the ego...expect to be undressed when you lose. All aboard!

    @jmac...if you think posting Jmac as your name makes you less of a punk...need to reevaluate bro!
    callmethan 09-28-2012 08:12 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 55)
    8     6

    Bills +4
    Jets +4
    Kc +1
    Rams +2.5
    Jags +2.5
    Giants+1.5

    Analysis...

    Most people think they know what they are doing and therefore lose. Those people will take the opposite of these picks and think they are good. Lets pretend to be Vegas for 1 week and go with the dogs at home, with the exception the Giants. gl!
    Jmac 09-28-2012 07:16 am xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    6     5

    If you have something to post
    The least you can do is put your
    Name up you know their is a spot
    For that anonymous posters are
    Punks don't be scared I could see if I were
    Asking you to put your address up !!!

    Jmac 09-28-2012 06:57 am xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    5     14

    You win some ya lose some
    At least we own up to our losses
    Right you know who I'm talking about
    Sorry peps
    theguru66 09-28-2012 04:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    6     4

    The game went pretty much exactly how I thought it would. If Baltimore scores a @faketheguru66

    Isn't that FADE not Fake??

    TD in the 4th by the Ravens the final would have been 30-16 and they cover. I predicted 30-13. I know there will always be haters. I even predicted a Ravens defensive TD (however, I did say they'd cover easy if that happened). The weather played a factor and the real "kicker" is Phil Dawson hit THREE FIFTY YARD + field goals IN THE RAIN. COME ON!!?? He misses one of those and the Ravens rook hit his and they still cover.

    If you don't like my plays DON'T play them, I do not have pictures of you somewhere, I am not forcing you to do anything. The train is on a incline right now but I'm sure you'll be on it if I go 4-1 this weekend!
    Johnny 09-28-2012 02:29 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.64 (total posts: 15)
    6     5

    Anyone wanna give me some insight on some good plays this Sunday? Spread or outright picks.
    GURUBALL 09-28-2012 01:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    5     82

    U keep hatin brah wile I keep makin cash brah!!

    So what if i lose most of my bets!! I just pretend to have more money hahah!! Even tho i never bet more than 20 bucks on a game in my life hahah!!

    Idc i just put 75 unitz on my next bet hahah!! im so pathetic i need approval from anonymous posters on a football site!!

    GLTA!!
    Jason 09-28-2012 01:02 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.17 (total posts: 3)
    6     8

    I am happy my cleveland under pick won.. It didn't happen like i thought but i knew they would keep it close..

    Baltimore came into this game anticipating a cakewalk and they got a fight to the finish. I thought trent Richardson would have a big night not Brandon Weeden but they are a young improving team with direction now.. I like what they are doing.. I think Josh Gordon is gonna turn into a hell of a reciever eventually.
    Guruball Sucks 09-28-2012 12:50 am xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 29)
    12     5

    You lost every day you posted last week yet you came out up 8 units? That's incredible.

    So how many units did you win tonight? 25?

    F---ing liar.


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 31


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
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    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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