NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.

John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Eagles 13, Ravens 6

---

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 2.
Friday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.

Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.

Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Dolphins 28, Falcons 23

---

New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Texans by 2.5.
Monday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.

Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.

Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
Texans 20, Jets 16

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   Chad 12-21-2011 10:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65) 70     11 Not sure why people are knocking Walt for his Miami pick. It's a solid play, and he lists several good reasons why they're a good bet. If Walt was working "with the books", why is he picking the play that the public isn't? Think about it Scott 12-21-2011 10:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx.243 (total posts: 3) 16     10 Walt - on the TB-CAR game you mention the 6 and 6 rule, what is the 6 and 6 rule? Chad 12-21-2011 10:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65) 12     13 Gator, I see a few really juicy NCAAB games tonight. Will watch the line movements today...hope we end up on the same page ;) Hmmm.... 12-21-2011 09:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.17 (total posts: 1) 11     14 I think Walt is working with the books. ie: Miami "pick of the month", really?????....hmmm What might really happen 12-21-2011 06:15 am xxx.xxx.xxx.217 (total posts: 28) 22     10 Hey 'What will really happen',you've made some nice picks lately but does it really hafta turn into a pissing contest between you and Walt?? Things get kinda weird for me when it's a "You're either with me or against me" thing....too cultish. If you like posting picks go for it. I'll give you props when I hit cuz of you. But are ya gonna disappear if you get 1 wrong?? It's like this other poster 'JohnnyV'. He had some good picks but thin skin. If ya got the balls to post a winner and rub someone's nose in it at least have the balls to have your nose rubbed once in a while. A 61% winning rate is good with me. It's like some dude that bangs 5 hot chicks in a row and then his buddies catch him banging a fat chick and all of the sudden they're not buddies anymore because he's not perfect. If you bet on the NFL you're gonna see a lot of fat chicks,but the key is to remind your buddies of all the hot chicks you've banged. Good luck to all. DJ Dana 12-21-2011 12:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 29) 14     11 I don't know why you wouldn't take the Texans over the Colts on the Thurs nighter. They had a clear breather game this past weekend vs. Carolina and Wade Phillips was out and not there to work his defensive magic. People will read too much into that Colts win and think they can replicate it against a very stout defense. I may tease it down to 3 to be on the safe side but I can't see how the Colts hang around all game. steve 12-21-2011 12:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193) 28     36 Lock pick for TCU game tomorrow night at www.BlairHattonPicks.com Moses 12-20-2011 11:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 5) 32     15 Meaningless game for Dallas? Uhhhh, no. If Dallas wins, and NYG loses, it's a clinch. Revenge doesn't mean crap if the team that has beat you in the past won't make the playoffs. I see you're still in love with Minnesota, Walt. You really like to bet big on them. Are you an employee of theirs? Your "logic" that the Redskins are 5-9 is ridiculous. What's Minnesota's record? Maybe you'll get lucky with the spread, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet 3 units on them. And as someone else pointed out, Denver will play hard for the division. What better opponent to "get up for" than crappy Buffalo? Why risk throwing away a win and a clinch to lay it all on the line the following week? You're also wrong about San Francisco and Tennessee. Moses 12-20-2011 11:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 5) 26     17 Walt's logic makes absolutely NO sense! As someone else pointed out with a sarcastic "huh?", the NE/MIA games aren't close at all. Yes, GB lost, but they still need a win to clinch home field advantage. Chicago is likely to be without their star quarterback too. They will get up for this game. Gator 12-20-2011 10:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36) 44     64 ...oh and I do bet those other sports but am even steven at best in those....College Bball is the way to go....for me anyway.... What will really happen 12-20-2011 10:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.90 (total posts: 87) 14     13 up 38 down 250 very well you're on your own good luck with walt's picks he already has a few wrong including one big game Gator 12-20-2011 10:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36) 22     13 @nic...I do my college basketball picks daily so you'll just have to wait as lines don't come out early enough to do number crunching....quite a streak going as Manhattan has already covered, VCU has already covered and Ohio is about to so that runs the winning streak currently to 9 in a row....so while it sounds like it, I'm not bragging but saying I'm due for a few losses coming up soon for sure...it's the nature of the game....also there's no such thing as a "lock" and anyone that says they have a sure one hasn't been sports betting very long.....with that said hopefully I'll have a couple winners for you tomorrow..... NYTony 12-20-2011 10:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.12 (total posts: 106) 42     26 @Walt - better backtrack on that NE pick. Which team from Mass. have you been watching? Brady may be the best QB who ever lived, and those two TE are unstoppable. The NE D is playing better and they're home. Pats will easily cover. NE 38 - MIA 21 Nic 12-20-2011 10:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx36.6 (total posts: 1) 18     15 Gator--like your picks. I'm looking for 2 locks in the next few days--anything ncaab/ncaaf/nfl/nba--what do you think? Brandon 12-20-2011 08:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 3) 65     13 I'm not sure Walter understands what the word "fluke" means. He keeps pointing to Denver's "three fluky fumbles" as the reason they lost, but a fluke is something that only happens once, not three times in the span of 60 minutes. Perhaps the Broncos lost because they played a superior team who was more careful with the football. Pages: 1 2 ...1014 1015 1016 10171018 1019 1020 ...1475 1476

2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 22


2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


NFL Picks - Feb. 3

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)