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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6





    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23






    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


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    PureLock 11-08-2012 04:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    4     23

    Wednesday Picks:

    NBA
    OKC at CHI: 8:00PM
    Pick: OKC(-2.5) for 8units: Bonus: Take:UNDER(190.5)

    L.A.Clippers at Portland: 10:30PM
    Pick: Portland(+1) for 5units: Bonus: Take: UNDER(201)

    NFL
    Indiana at Jac: 8:20PM
    Pick: Jac(+3) for 2units: Bonus: Take:OVER(42.5) Sound crazy right? But after all your wallet sound right.

    College Football
    ULMON at Arkansas ST: 7:00PM
    Pick: ULMON(+7) for 3units: Bonus: Take:OVER(59.5)

    FLST at VT: 7:30PM
    Take: VT(+12.5) for 1units: Bonus: Take:UNDER(50)

    As Alway GLTA
    foggwest 11-08-2012 04:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.75 (total posts: 9)
    5     4

    @theguru66 : I just got back from a getaway [ anniversary ] in the mountains and stopped to read this site before heading to Nevada to place some wagers. I agree with your assessment of the Under in tonite's game but almost fell off my chair laughing when you 'chastised' Walt for his whining about the Bear-Titan game. The last time I laughed that hard was the first time I read Walt's recap saying basically that the Titans were the 'right side'
    I enjoy this site and Walt does some great analysis but I don't think he really takes into account 'game flow' and how teams change their play according to the score.
    Virtually every team goes into a shell when they have a big lead and gives up garbage yards to eliminate any chance of their opponent coming back to win. You are 100% correct that was the case in the Bears-Titans game.
    Tanman 11-08-2012 03:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.241 (total posts: 3)
    6     5

    @Purelock - I think everyone got killed last night with the NBA. I looked at the games early and it looked too good to be true... turns out it was. I got pounded! Let's figure out what went wrong and not do that again. Now time to move forward and bounce back!
    PureLock 11-08-2012 03:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    3     4

    @JETHRO, thanks bro, I still feel so bad after all last night bro. I hope I make it back tonight.
    jakecutler 11-08-2012 02:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 1)
    5     4

    Big change of heart, Walt, on the Bears. Picked to lose to the Titans one week, picked to beat the Texans the next?
    chuckster 11-08-2012 12:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    5     6

    Indy -3 (-125), first spot of this weeks three team par. Agree with most of the below posts on this game. Just on team talent this year, gotta go with Indy. If you add motivation and desire, at the very Least, I like the Colts by three. I capped this game 23 to 17 Colts. GLTA.
    Fast Pick'r 11-08-2012 12:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.197 (total posts: 1)
    7     4

    My play of the week:

    Colt-3.5 (40 units)

    If anyone feels that the Colts are going to come out sluggish after shaving their locks in support of their coach and football family member you are sadly mistaken. This team is primed and ready to expose the already exposed Jags! My prediction is:

    Colts 27. Jags 10

    Good Luck to all and be on the right side of winning!
    Sandman 11-08-2012 12:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx21.1 (total posts: 1)
    3     4

    Im bet
    Thursday night
    Ind+ over
    Danielo65 11-08-2012 12:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 72)
    26     4

    So many people seem to think this is a trap game for the Colts... maybe their overall talent is a little overrated, but IF Luck is becoming the "real deal", then this is a gift. The way I see it is we have a top-10 QB on a hungry team going against a bottom-5 QB on a directionless team with the worst home crowd in the NFL. For all we know, the Jags have already quit on their coach and the players just wanna get out of town before the owner moves the team to London.

    Seriously, though, the Colts' players just shaved their heads bald today as a sign of solidarity to back up their coach... sometimes stuff like that can be overrated, but in this case, I think we're lookin at a unique situation where this team is truly locked in and developing chemistry that goes beyond the typical NFL team.




    chuckster 11-08-2012 12:16 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    2     4

    Won my first play of the year in NBA last night. Heat romped, Dallas coasted after garnishing a huge lead in the second, Boston/Wash Under 194.5 should have been easy, but the game went to overtime which is usually Death for the Under. Put all of these in a 3 team 8 point teaser. Nice to start off with a W. BTW, I posted this play yesterday on Walter s NBA pick site. All of you Giant haters, remember the Giants played basically .500 ball the entire regular season last year, BARELY made the playoffs. How did that end up for them???????????? NOT a Giant fan, but as I posted before when the playoff bell sounds they BRING IT!!!! GLTA.
    Faceplant 11-08-2012 11:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.17 (total posts: 4)
    2     3

    Also got Jax and buff in a 6pt teaser
    Faceplant 11-08-2012 11:03 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.17 (total posts: 4)
    4     11

    I had a terrible past 2 weeks something like 2-7. I strayed away from my system of thinkin that had me on fire the first 6 weeks. I wrote down my keys to avoid straying. Hit Monday night on the under... Threw my whole account down in a desperation drunk move and it worked back up 20 units on thE season.

    Tonight's game: Indy is without 2 secondary starters if gabbert can get the ball out he will get his open receivers. Indy is traveling in a short week against a division for with the media hyping them up as playoff contenders... Perfect recipe for disaster. If Jax doesn't turn it over (they will get help from the refs today watch for shady calls) I see them covering the 3.5 and maybe winning out right

    Jax +3.5
    JETHRO 11-08-2012 10:14 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    6     4

    @PURELOCK
    DON'T GIVE UP BROTHER AND STAY HUMBLE LIKE YOU ARE- AT LEAST YOU ARE WILLING TO ADMIT DEFEAT. YOU GOTTA PULL YOURSELF UP AND LEARN FROM YOUR MISTAKES. ONLY THROUGH FAILURE CAN WE TRULY SUCCEDE. YOU'VE GOT THE ATTITUDE OF A WINNER AND I KNOW YOU'LL PREVAIL IN THE LONG RUN.
    @THEGURU66
    AM A BIG FAN OF YOUR WORK. WHILE INDY GAME WOULD SEEM TO BE HIGH SCORING WITH THESE TWO PLAYING YOU MAKE A GREAT ANALYSIS FOR THE UNDER SAVED ME SOME WORK I CAN PUT INTO USING ON THE NBA TONITE TO GET US SOME WINNERS.
    THANKS AGAIN TO BOTH, GOOD LUCK AND NEVER LOSE HOPE.
    Sharky 11-08-2012 09:46 am xxx.xxx.xxx.159 (total posts: 62)
    4     5

    walt wrong giants will care about this game but truth is they are highly overrated. I mean really couldn't stop cleveland or dallas had to rely on them beating themselves with a lead.
    Sharky 11-08-2012 09:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx.159 (total posts: 62)
    6     8

    how pathetic refs cheat big time for the g-men with moron bill leavy and co. and steelers still win. That's how bad the giants really are. steelers would have probably won easy without moron refs like this. Why the nfl doesn't fire refs like this is beyond me. I could have done a better job. You know what cincy probably will beat them.


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
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    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
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    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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