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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6





    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23






    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


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    GStar 11-09-2012 12:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    4     4

    @Walter

    Looks like you're in for a rough week.

    -

    Was it just me or did buddy from the Colts just stop running to not get a TD on that last pick?

    -

    I had IND -3.5 as the first game on a 4-game parlay. The remaining picks on the parlay are Calgary Stampeders -5.5, Detroit -1.5 and San Francisco -11.5.

    -

    Good luck fellas.
    chuckster 11-09-2012 11:29 am xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     4

    First spot of my three team par Indy -3...check! Better lucky than good, as I also garnished first spot of my 5 team 14 pointer with Jacksonville +17.5. After the pick six, Colts must have shifted down to neutral as they would put up only 3 more points. Jags are just pitiful, look for their coach to be fired sometime this season, or at most post season. Colts are easily the feel good story of the NFL this year. Young pro players going out on the field with that extra emotion and desire is pretty rare to see in the NFL, let's enjoy it while it lasts. Congrats to winners and good luck to all going forward.
    JETHRO 11-09-2012 11:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    4     4

    @GURU. OK MAYBE I GOT A LITTLE EXCITED. AND I'VE GOT TANNEHILL DOWN HERE. ANOTHER GOOD ROOKIE QB. I JUST LOVE HIS COMPOSURE AND HOW HE PLAYS. LET'S GET THROUGH THE SEASON AND SEE IN 20 YRS OR SO! GOOD LUCK MY MAN!
    Vick in a Box 11-09-2012 10:35 am xxx.xxx.xxx.171 (total posts: 4)
    5     6

    Who we we like in the Pitt-Conn college football game?
    Fast Pick'r 11-09-2012 07:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx.204 (total posts: 1)
    10     6

    Well I woke up on the right side of winning this morning...hope you did as well!

    My prediction of the Colts 27-10 win was spot on and I nailed it for 40 units. I added a little icing yo that cake and parleyed Colts and under for 5 units.

    BIG weekend coming up and its always nice to be free rolling!!

    GLTA
    Newbie2011 11-09-2012 04:19 am xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 171)
    4     5

    Quick thoughts on picks:
    Bucks: Wizards are fade material and on my sh!t list. Bucks will give them a hard time.

    Heat: they've been coming back in 2 or 3rd Q and winning by DD. Granted, they lost last road game but I like their chances at covering tomorrow.

    NY Knicks Over 199.5: I can see the Knicks playing a fast tempo and forcing more shots each game. Dallas will have to keep up and I can see both teams 100+.

    Denver U: My goldfish told me to take the points ;-)
    Good night and good luck if you play!
    Newbie2011 11-09-2012 04:08 am xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 171)
    4     4

    I'll be running errands all day so these are my picks (realize that today, I spent about 6 hours reading picks from a bunch of cappers and another few hours to digest everything for 2 NBA, 1 NFL, and 2 NCAAF games...here are my 30 minute research for a crap load of games tomorrow):

    Bucks -3, Heat -5.5, Dal/NY Over 199.5 (all NBA), & Denver U +3 (College BBall)

    Good luck everyone!
    PureLock 11-09-2012 03:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.29 (total posts: 98)
    9     56

    @all my friends out there, I thought I going perfect at NBA, but Portland killing me again, good thing I only bet 5units, but still lost is a lost, I pick UNDER correct, but didn't put any units. Because I try not to play U/O. Anyway, I don't knw anyones out there know it, I been picking all my college football correct so far from Tuesday to now. So, that I hope everyones enjoy my college football pick
    theguru66 11-09-2012 03:12 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    13     14

    @JETHRO

    You know I am the biggest supporter of Luck out there but future hall of fame'er? Easssssssy killer, let's get through one season first before we give him a bust in Canton.
    Newbie2011 11-09-2012 02:59 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 4)
    5     5

    Did anyone else play any or all of my nba picks? I did a tiny parley 4 & that saved my @ss today since I took Florida and teased it down to -6.5. FML on that!

    Hope everyone won something!
    JETHRO 11-09-2012 02:23 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    4     5

    Colts not only have a future hall of fame QB but have that spark that has brought them together emotionally as a team. Jax at 1-7 going into this game how could they even be considered to cover? On to the weekend.
    theguru66 11-09-2012 02:15 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    4     6

    I said it in the first half when Portland forgot that their was a whole other half of basketball to go and went down 25. I knew they would make a run but that hill was way to large to climb. Your right, this team has no bench and is going to struggle a lot (even at home) this year. I still think they have a great home court advantage but you have to think about it more now.

    Not a bad night if I can get my NBA thing going we'd be OK. Dropped to 2 games under now at 6-8 and time to go back to the drawing board and cut the fat at +4 instead of +3 on the picks. By the way both the under and the over in the college game were high plays so I'm glad they came in.

    Hope everyone did well tonight! Tickets please!
    Kyle 11-09-2012 01:35 am xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 245)
    5     6

    BH has now dropped two straight Thursday night games after claiming they were undefeated after 8 weeks. Meanwhile Walt is now 1-9 on Thursday picks. Saw earlier today that someone posted on here Walt was 1-8 going into tonight. Fade Walt's Thursday picks and you will set yourself up for the weekend action.
    the gambler 11-09-2012 01:29 am xxx.xxx.xxx.244 (total posts: 2)
    3     5

    what do you guys think of new york knicks -6 against dallas maverick tomorrow? i find it incredible how they keep draining those 3s for the past 3 straight games...not sure if they can do it again tomorrow...
    Herrmann 11-09-2012 01:28 am xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 1)
    4     5

    Walt what's your email I'll send you my picks every week and I'll only charge you $100. Taking the Jaguars @ 1 unit. You've lost your mind.


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
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    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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