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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6





    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23






    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


    Leave a comment

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    PureLock 11-11-2012 01:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    24     4

    I lost all day yesterday in College FB. I going to change my bet, I'm going to increase my bet for the TOP PLAY. I be right back folks.
    Ivar 11-11-2012 01:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.69 (total posts: 27)
    3     4

    Well, bumped up the Atlanta pick. I've got a good feeling tonight. Kyle: I like your 2nd teaser better than the first one, there's almost no value in teasing a team from +13 to +20. Picks on my blog:
    http://ivarstake.blogspot.com/2012/11/nfl-picks-week-10.html
    nickp 11-11-2012 01:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.157 (total posts: 4)
    7     4

    i almost wanna bet against every one of walters early picks .. he makes no sense
    kyle 11-11-2012 01:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.54 (total posts: 18)
    4     14

    teased:

    Buff +20
    Mia -1
    Balt -3
    Hou +7

    teased:
    Hou +7
    Dallas +4
    NO +9
    Det +3

    Thumbs up or down?


    Thanks!
    andy w 11-11-2012 12:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    6     5

    @theguru66

    Holy crap .. I figured I'd be the only one here who remembers Carters Little Liver Pills.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 12:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    5     4

    Wow, a lot of peeps are on the Saints today huh? Interesting. I still love the Falcons. The Saints are THAT bad on defense. Yes they showed up last week but that was against Vick, who stinks. It's not like this Falcons team is 4-4. I don't see them losing today I just don't. I could be dead wrong but unless something flukey happens the Falcons will win by at least a FG.
    GStar 11-11-2012 12:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.43 (total posts: 1)
    3     6

    For those who care and missed my post on Friday..

    Calgary Stampeders -5.5
    Detroit -1.5
    San Francisco -11.5

    theguru66 11-11-2012 12:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    105     5

    I finally read Walt's picks for this week and I love how he goes on and on about how the Steelers will blow out the Chiefs and gives every indication that the Chiefs won't stand a chance and THEN...he picks the Chiefs! If your going to pick a team Walt at least back it up in your analysis, come on that is capping 101. How can we take it seriously when your whole write up is on how bad the Chiefs are and how good the Steelers are and then pick away from your analysis? Trust your homework Walt. Use the force Luuuuuke! Thanks for the sight though, great work!
    JETHRO 11-11-2012 12:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    5     6

    @PURELOCK
    WHERE ARE YOU BROTHER? WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR TODAY?
    CBrown 11-11-2012 12:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 33)
    9     10

    Take the points and run today:

    -Titans, +7 (bought an extra point). How can Dolphins be 6 point favorites against anyone?

    -Lions, -1. Ponder has zero confidence and one big concern from Vikes coaches in pre-season was that he can't get out of his head at times. When he loses confidence and is extremely self-aware, it renders him absolutely useless as we have seen the last two weeks. Lions starting to play well as we have all been waiting this season, Vikes going exactly the opposite direction. I'll take the much better QB-WR combo and watch for Suh to to possibly destroy what is left of Ponder's psyche. Could get ugly here and remember, AP can't do it on his own.

    -Texans, +1.5. Houston is well-rounded and will match up very well. I can see them frustrating Cutler very early and we all know what happens when Cutler becomes shaky--Choketime happens every single year at some point and that will be today.

    -2 Team Teaser: Broncos +3, Saints +9--this one speaks for itself. Small Note: I don't care how porous the Saints D seems to be, it is difficult for any team to keep up with Brees especially at home. I see it coming down to the end with the Victor not winning by more than one score. In addition, No Way Cam Newton keeps up with Peyton Manning--let's be realistic. Just because Panthers pulled out a win, Manning it the ultimate Professional, Pefectionist and Competitior, I don't even see how they could lose this game in any scenario.

    -2 Team Teaser: -3 Pats, +4 Giants. 2 words: Brady and Manning. At risk of speaking to the choir, if you will--Bet on marquee QB's in this league and you'll always win majority of games ATS.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 12:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    4     4

    @chuckster

    I totally agree with you, this game means everything to the Saints, I even referred to it as their "super bowl" but there is always a team that loses the Super Bowl isn't there? The Saints defense is HISTORICALLY bad. They've given up more yards then Carter had liver pills (Wow, I'm showing my age there, LOL) and I just don't see HOW they can stop Matt Ryan and Mike Turner. They will try but they will fail IMO of course. Whatever you do, good luck but if you feel good on the Saints tread lightly.
    eScO 11-11-2012 12:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.222 (total posts: 1)
    4     4

    NFL Plays 1pm


    NYG u48.5
    SD o47
    MIA u44
    NO u53.5 (Best Bet)

    6 tm parlay

    DEN ML
    MIA ML
    BAL ML
    NYG u48.5
    SD o47
    NO u53.5

    GLTA
    andy w 11-11-2012 12:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    7     4

    Walt likes to frequently point out overreaction by the media and the public.

    Well, just my two cents but I feel Walt himself is guilty of overreacting.

    By fading the public in nearly every game this week, I feel he's overreacting to last week's Vegas bloodbath.

    I like some of his picks this week, but generally speaking I would never endorse such a categorical strategy.

    GLTA!
    chuckster 11-11-2012 11:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     5

    First of all, lost my first NBA teaser play last night. Houston GAVE the game away to Charlotte. Sh t happens. For today in the NBA: three team 8 point teaser with OK City -1.5, Lakers -1, one open spot. For NFL: Really like all of theguru66 s plays except the Saint Falcons game. This Game is MUCH more important to the Saints, they have to put a solid win streak together or their wildcard hopes go up in smoke. Also never a good idea to fuk with Brees at Home, especially as a dog. I've got this so far: Three team par with Colts -3 (won), Denver -3.5, Seattle -6.5. 5 team 14 point teaser with Jags +17.5 (won), Carolina +18, Miami +8, Saints +16.5, one open spot..if all goes well with the above 3 picks, will hedge third spot of par and take the Jets + 20. Also have a 3 team 10 point teaser with Patriots -1, Niners -1.5, Steelers -2. Good luck to all today and congrats to all winners last night.
    Tanman 11-11-2012 11:24 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.80 (total posts: 3)
    3     4

    I picked a lot of winners (especially the big upsets) yesterday but always found a way to include a dud in my parlays, so I ended up almost exactly where I started for the day. Today looks interesting and after studying all of your picks and analysis, then adding my own spice, here are my top 3 for the day:

    Atl -1.5 (as of now)
    Car +4
    Tampa -3
    Bonus: Bill +13.5

    Hope everyone kills it today!


    NFL Free Agents - April 17


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 26


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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