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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6





    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23






    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


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    chuckster 12-28-2011 02:33 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.200 (total posts: 182)
    15     15

    @Gator: don't particularly believe in services, and for sure that 76 percent can not stand with time. That being said, for as long as I have seen you on Walters site, you for sure, seem to be an honest, well informed and grounded caper. I believe your venture into selling picks will be very profitable for you and your crew. I wish you the best of luck and I'm truly sorry, that you will not be on this site very often in the future. Good luck to you sir.... it has been a informative and handicapping pleasure watching you and your crew work!!
    Gator 12-28-2011 02:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    16     10

    ...sorry forgot one thing.....if you have any questions or concerns or anything you can email me at gatorpicks@mail.com and we can go from there...
    Gator 12-28-2011 02:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    18     148

    Well this will be my last post on here for awhile....I will try to keep the explanation short...in making my picks, "my" picks are actually 3 guys picks. We work together to make our picks and have been having some substantial success for some time now and "my partners" and I are spending some of our own money to get access to some different tools and trends and are hoping to continue to improve our picks. As such we are going to start selling our picks at a really low price on a great, legitimate site. It's www.line.com for anyone that hasn't heard of it. We are selling our picks for $89.99 a month. That obviously works out to about $3 a day. Hopefully we have made people at least that amount of money thus far sharing our picks on this board and we will continue to do so at line.com.
    If you are interested in continuing to get our picks just go to line.com and search for "Gator" and you can purchase the picks using Paypal. "Gator" isn't officially on the leaderboard as of yet as we don't have enough picks to "qualify" yet but we are at a top notch 76% which shatters pretty much anyone else on there....but this isn't supposed to be a "selling" message, just an informational message to let those know that want to continue to get Gator's picks can do so still at a low price instead of free. Sorry if this disapoints anyone. I won't be on here every day promoting myself as others do as I value this site and the information it brings. Hopefully we see you guys at line.com making some $$ with some Gatorpicks....word....

    PS: We have 5 picks thus far today and they will be posted in about 3 hours after finishing our "crunching".....thanks again to all....
    STEVE 12-28-2011 02:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.37 (total posts: 8)
    32     21

    Toledo -3

    defense will get some stops, over might be the better play???
    Firefighter0629 12-28-2011 02:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.244 (total posts: 3)
    11     10

    College Bowl Picks Today any opinions?

    Thanks
    Tony Montana 12-28-2011 02:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.241 (total posts: 11)
    10     10

    Thanks again Gator for the solid picks. Hope you can come through tonight as well.
    NickMoney 12-28-2011 02:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.131 (total posts: 4)
    9     16

    Sorry my last post i mentioned the name Nick Diaz when its really his brother Nate if that confused anyone.
    NickMoney 12-28-2011 01:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.131 (total posts: 4)
    13     10

    Not sure how many mma fight fans are out there but here are my picks for the friday ufc event

    Brock Lesnar(+120) 5 Units to win 6
    Brock has had a long layoff because of his diverticulitis. That was healed before the summer so he has had plenty of time to train. He came back the last time and won his title back against shane carwin who hits even harder the allister. Allister is coming from strikeforce to fight his first fight in the UFC. We have seen time and time again how all this hype surrounding big guys in another venue making it into UFC and then preforming mediocre at best compared to the level of fighting in UFC. His strength is his striking but Brock knows this and has lost his last fight to an even better striker. So he is gonna be very prepared to defned that and do whatever he can to take it to the ground.

    Donald Cerrone(-275) 3 units to win 1.1
    Now im not placing this just yet since i think the line will move alittle in cerrones favor. But as of now this is what i would do for the current line. Cerrone has been on a war path since entering the ufc from wec. Nick Diaz just doesnt have the tools to defend against his attacks.

    Those are the fights i like so far for the event. I will probably reiterate them friday mourning. Curious if any other fight betters have any comments or opinions.
    NORM 12-28-2011 01:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.84 (total posts: 1)
    10     11

    I made a bet back in October where I took Denver to win the AFC West at +8000 odds. I put $5 to win $400... I am trying to think of the best way to ensure that I will win something (I win if Denver wins, or if oakland loses, or if both denver and oakland lose.) I wanted to see what you guys think the best way to lay some of this off with a chance to still win all of my bets. I know I can put $100 on Oakland to win the AFC West at +320 odds which would make sure I won $300 either way, but I was also thinking about maybe betting $200 on KC+3, which then I would hope that they cover but don't win, or if KS does win that Oakland also loses so that I win both bets. I was also thinking about parlaying the oakland money line with kc+3... any tips here would be appreciated, thanks fellas.
    STEVE 12-28-2011 12:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.37 (total posts: 8)
    10     10

    Here were my picks last night.
    Illinios -6 6 units WIN thanks Gator
    Ill/Minn over 125 2 units WIN
    NJ Nets +4.5 2 units LOSER
    First Half Heat -5.5 2 units WIN
    Heat -9.5 3 Units LOSER - last 3 minutes killed me.
    MIA/BOS Over 191 2 Units WIN
    2nd Half over 94 1 Unit WIN
    Lakers -5.5 2 units WIN
    Wisc -8 1 Unit WIN - thanks again Gator

    Up $1,050 on the night.

    Tonight I like Heat -6 first half 5 units - the last two games Heat have played the score at halftime has been 62-41 and 69-54, against Mavs and Celtics respectively.

    Celtics -2.5 2 units - they need a win badly and Hornets are nothing now with CP3 gone.

    Hawks -9 3 units - blew out Nets last night and Nets beat up on Charlotte at home the other night. Hawks should roll.

    Pacers -4 3 units - raptors are horrible and they will show it tonight.

    Spurs -4 2 units - I don't feel great about this one but then again Spurs beat up on Grizzlies which are pretty good team this year.

    College Hoops
    Indiana +6 1.5 units- this will be a buzzer beater, which way? I don't know but should be a close game.
    UConn -6 3 units - this should be an easy win for the Huskies.

    Good luck everyone!
    @ steve 12-28-2011 12:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 17)
    13     10

    Peddle your below average site somewhere else.
    Nobody needs your
    3-3 bowl picks
    3-4 college basketball picks
    and 1-5 NBA picks
    Steve 12-28-2011 12:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    10     13

    Check out the Bowl Game picks tonight at http://www.BlairHattonPicks.com
    OLLIE 12-28-2011 09:55 am xxx.xxx.xxx24.4 (total posts: 11)
    10     9

    Tuesday December 27, 2011 - 6:26 PM
    Payton not divulging plan for Brees in finale
    PrintEmail a FriendFacebookTwitterRSSShareMETAIRIE, La. (AP) - A day after Sean Payton helped Drew Brees break the NFL's single-season passing record the coach wouldn't divulge whether he'd enable his star quarterback to maintain that distinction.

    With 5,087 yards passing this season after Monday night's victory over Atlanta, Brees enters the final week of the season 190 yards ahead of New England's Tom Brady. Yet the Saints' regular-season finale may not matter in terms of playoff seeding, meaning the prudent choice for Payton could be to rest Brees for much of Sunday's game against Carolina.

    The Patriots, by contrast, need to beat Buffalo to ensure they'll have the top seed in the AFC, and Brady has proven time and again he can put up a lot of yards in a single game. He had a season-high 517 yards against Miami in Week 1 and threw for 423 against San Diego. The last time New England played Buffalo, Brady threw for 387 yards.

    So it's not out of the realm of possibility that Brady could finish the season with the passing record Brees now holds, particularly if the Saints' quarterback sits out.

    DONT KNOW IF SAINTS STARTERS PLAY IN THIS GAME SO PAY ATTENTION

    "I'm not really aware of the space between the two. I am probably better off not knowing," Payton said Tuesday of Brees and Brady's yardage totals.

    With the playoffs close, Payton said the Saints' priority must be how to "put ourselves in the best position to play well and put ourselves in an opportunity to win a championship."

    "That's not always what is popular," the coach added.

    Jacked_Up 12-28-2011 08:46 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.99 (total posts: 4)
    9     59

    What's with the complaining about the bears-packers game? The bears were down by 3 scores, of course they are going to kick the field goal.
    Sharky 12-28-2011 06:33 am xxx.xxx.xxx.215 (total posts: 42)
    11     110

    is pats playing for anything if not take bills! they should cover.


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 25


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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