NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2011
NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2011): 7-8-1 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (2011): 133-130-12 (-$2,175)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2011): 7-8-1 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (2011): 133-130-12 (-$2,175)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Jan. 15, 11:15 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 37.
Walt's Projected Line: Ravens -9.
Sunday, Jan. 15, 1:00 ET
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Jan. 9, 2012 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are Russian Cleavage Pharmacist, Horny Teens, Soap Scuz Man.
Also, I've been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on NFL.com's GameCenter, most of which came from a creeper named Aaron3619.
If you recall from last week, Aaron has been having issues with a user named SuckOnMyFootball. My friend Emily sent me a series of comments that SuckOnMyFootball posted on Aaron's profile:
It took Aaron several days to hop onto GameCenter, but he responded with:
Did SuckOnMyFootball ever say that he/she is a girl? I don't think so, meaning Aaron's a bit delusional. I know, I know, a huge shock.
Other developments in the Aaron3619 saga this week:
1. I have to apologize to FalconsSuck. Here were FalconsSuck's posts last week:
I wrote, "FalconsSuck is my hero for the dog rapist comment. His posts were funny..."
Well, FalconsSuck is a girl. My bad. At least Aaron made the same mistake too, as FalconsSuck let him know:
I can only imagine what Aaron is thinking. "FalconsSuck is a girl? Does that mean she will send me nacked pic and bikini pic!?!?!?"
Aaron replied:
FalconsSuck didn't waste any time responding to Aaron:
Aaron just got served. No nacked and bikini pic from FalconsSuck. Luckily, there are other female GameCenter users to harass...
2. Remember StrikerSarah? If not, here's a quick reminder:
It took StrikerSarah a few weeks to reply, but she finally got back to Aaron.
So, what's the verdict? Is she going to send him nacked and bikini pic?
Drum roll...
Drum roll......
DRUM ROLL.........
REJECTED!!!
Riiiight. Because all "friends" demand nacked pic and bikini pic from each other.
Poor Aaron. How can he possibly recover from all of this rejection? Better yet, I wonder what would happen if someone asked Aaron for his nacked and/or bikini (Speedo) pic?
HOUSTON OFFENSE: T.J. Yates versus Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed. Yeah, this is going to be tough.
The Texans scored 24 points on offense against the Bengals. They were able to do this because Arian Foster rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. Cincinnati went into the contest pretty weak versus the run. The Ravens don't have that problem.
Baltimore ranks second versus the rush. The team has had some issues against it in the final few weeks of the season, but that can be attributed to Ray Lewis' struggles. Lewis wasn't close to 100 percent because he was coming off a toe injury. The bye was exactly what he needed, however, as he reportedly is close to full strength.
Yates will have to make some plays to win this game. Even with Andre Johnson a week healthier, that'll be extremely difficult with Baltimore's ferocious pass rush breathing down his neck. Yates was a bit lucky this past Saturday that the Bengals failed to take advantage of some mistakes, including two Foster fumbles and Yates' potential interception fired right at Chris Crocker. The Ravens will capitalize.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Following his overtime victory over the Steelers, John Fox said that it's "all about the players" when asked about the battle between his offensive coordinator and Dick LeBeau. Well, it's not all about the players in this contest - not when one of the coaches is Cam Cameron.
It sounds simple to give Ray Rice as many touches as possible, but Cameron has a habit of deviating from this strategy at the worst moment. If Rice isn't involved early and often, the Ravens will struggle to score. There's no question about that.
The Texans have a great defense. They're ninth versus the rush (4.01 YPC), second against the pass (6.2 YPA) and tied for fourth in sacks (48). Despite this, the Ravens were able to score 29 points in the prior meeting because of Rice, who rushed for 101 yards on 23 carries and caught five balls for 60 receiving yards. As dominant as Houston's stop unit can be, Rice is just way too talented to contain for 60 minutes.
You can see why Cameron needs to lean on Rice. Of course, there's also the issue of Joe Flacco, who is incredibly inconsistent. He can look great one quarter, but completely dreadful the next. Flacco will have Anquan Boldin back from minor knee surgery, but it's hard to trust Flacco against Wade Phillips' defense, though it should be noted that he went 20-of-33 for 305 yards, a rushing touchdown and an interception the last time these teams clashed.
RECAP: I'm leaning toward the Ravens. I don't like Yates' chances in Baltimore. If the Ravens go up 10-0 or 17-3, I can't imagine Yates leading his team back.
I won't be betting on the host though. Laying more than a touchdown with Flacco doesn't sound like a good time - the Ravens were 2-6 against the spread as favorites of six or more this year - and Baltimore has had a habit of crapping the bed versus inferior competition. I know this contest is at home, where they've been better, but the Ravens barely beat the Cardinals and Browns as hosts. Even Dan Orlovsky had a cheap backdoor cover against them.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Slight lean on the host. Percentage of money on Baltimore: 60% (122,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Ravens. Big Winner: Teams coming off wins of 21-plus at home in the playoffs are 3-8 ATS the following week since 2002.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 12-20 ATS since 2003 (9-15 since 2005).
Opening Line: Ravens -7.5.
Opening Total: 38.
Weather: Sunny, 32 degrees. Light wind.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 6
Ravens -7.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Under 37 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Ravens 20, Texans 13
New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 53.
Walt's Projected Line: Packers -10.
Sunday, Jan. 15, 4:30 ET
The Game. Edge: Packers.
It's the final game of the second round of the playoffs, but we're going to have Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Green Bay! Tonight, the Packers play the stupid Giants. But I can tell you right now, guys. The Packers are losing. Lock it in. Call your bookie before it's too late!
Emmitt: Mike, what you say do not make any senses. How can somebody call a book? The five book I have in my house do not have any hand nor arm to pick up the telephone. And how can you know the Packer will win for sure? Do you have a diamond ball in your pocket that nobody know about?
Reilly: Emmitt, I said bookies; not books. The guys who can take your bets. Green Bay will lose. Mark my words. Gamble all your life savings on the Giants!
Herm: No gamblin! No betting! No wagering! No money spending! No bookies! Gamblin's bad! If you gamble, you're bad! So don't gamble, cuz you'll be bad! Because it's bad to gamble! And gamblin's bad! Uhh... gamblin... uhh...
Reilly: Hey Herm, I was just lying to everyone. Bet everything you have on the Packers! Go do it now! Ha, look, stupid Herm is thinking about betting the Packers!
Tollefson: Now, Kevin, I have a question. How can you possibly know that betting against the Packers is a sure thing? I'd love to pound the Giants and win lots of money so I can buy more concubines who will cook and clean for me, and then pleasure me sexually while I eat my meal, but I need to know for sure.
Kevin Reilly: That's privileged information, Don. Just know that the Packers will win. Mark my words.
Emmitt: Mike, what color marker do you think we should write on your word?
Reilly: Mark; not marker, Emmitt. OK, fine. I'll tell you. You know how Aaron Rodgers always wears those stupid hats? Well, I bought some lice and put it into his hat when he wasn't looking. I also put some lice into Herm's dinner yesterday. That's why he had diarrhea all night! Ha!
Millen: That intrigues me, Kevin. Let's see if you can follow me here. What if a person were to take some lice with his meal and then shove some kielbasa up his backside later on? How much would go in, and how much would go out? Something's gotta give, Kevin!
Reilly: Millen, you disgust me. Go bet on the stupid Packers with Herm. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers seemed pretty invincible until they battled the Chiefs. Romeo Crennel had his defense put immense pressure on Aaron Rodgers, which made life extremely difficult for him because the elite Kansas City corners took away his receivers - a group that was missing Greg Jennings.
Well, Jennings is back. That's one difference between this contest and the Chief game. The other is that the Giants don't exactly have unbelievable talents like Brandon Flowers, bastard of Highgarden, and Brandon Carr in their secondary. Their secondary has been known to blow coverage from time to time.
New York's pass rush is terrific though. With everyone healthy and Jason Pierre-Paul emerging as one of the top defensive talents in the NFL, the Giants can get to the quarterback as well as anyone. As I wrote in the Saints-49ers capsule, the only way to beat an elite quarterback - aside from kidnapping him and drugging him - is to apply immense pressure without blitzing. New York can certainly do that.
The Giants can also stop the run well now - they've allowed 3.5 YPC to opposing backs the past four weeks - so don't expect Ryan Grant or James Starks to do anything in the ground. Thus, Green Bay's offense will at least be somewhat limited, opening the door for Eli Manning and company to pull out a victory.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: And Manning certainly won't face much of a challenge. By now, you know how bad Green Bay's defense is, but as a reminder, the team has five sacks in its previous six games, and just surrendered 520 passing yards to Matthew Stafford in Week 17.
Manning threw all over the Packers as well. He went 23-of-40 for 347 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in a last-second loss to Green Bay back in Week 13. He threw a game-tying score with about a minute remaining, but left too much time on the clock for Rodgers.
The one bit of good news for Green Bay's defense is that it'll have Ryan Pickett back from a concussion. Pickett is a force versus the run, and he was certainly missed in Weeks 15 and 16. However, it should be noted that Pickett played in the first meeting versus the Giants, who were able to rack up 100 rushing yards on just 20 carries.
With Victor Cruz emerging as a potent weapon, the Packers will be too focused on containing him, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, so Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will be able to pick up where they left off last week. They'll be able to help the Giants control the clock, and they'll give Manning favorable down-and-distance situations.
RECAP: Some people think this spread is too high, but I think it's way too low. Think about it this way: The Packers were -6.5 at the Giants. You have to move the spread over six points (three to neutral, three to other site) to go from away to home, so this line would have been -12.5 back in Week 13. Of course, New York has played much better since, but four points better? That seems like a lot.
I thought this line would be -10, so there's no value with the Giants. I'm still taking them, however, because I think these teams are pretty even. Sure, Rodgers is on the other side, but New York has a much better running game and defense. That has to count for something, right?
I also regrettably have to factor in the death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son. If you haven't heard, the body of Philbin's son was found in a river Monday evening after he went missing Sunday morning. I can't even imagine what Philbin is going through right now. I don't see how he can possibly be focused on game planning for the Giants' improved defense.
TEASER HEDGE: The first leg of my teaser won, so I'm going to hedge with a unit on the Giants moneyline (+310). The only way I'm screwed is if the Packers win by one, so fingers crossed.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Giants are a popular upset pick this week, which can't sit well with Aaron Rodgers. On the other hand, offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son has been missing since Sunday morning, so I doubt he's 100-percent focused.
The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
The Giants are a major public dog. Percentage of money on New York: 64% (121,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Big Winner: Teams coming off wins of 21-plus at home in the playoffs are 3-8 ATS the following week since 2002.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 12-20 ATS since 2003 (9-15 since 2005).
Giants are 31-17 ATS on the road since 2006.
Aaron Rodgers is 33-17 ATS since 2009.
Opening Line: Packers -9.
Opening Total: 51.
Weather: Cloudy, 26 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Giants 31
Giants +7.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Over 53 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Giants 37, Packers 20
Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Saints at 49ers, Broncos at Patriots
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Moneyline Underdog: 49ers +160 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$80
Moneyline Underdog: Broncos +525 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
Teaser: Ravens -1.5, Packers -1.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Teaser Hedge: Giants +310 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$310
2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 24
2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22
2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21
Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20
NFL Picks - Feb. 3
SUB MENU Go to Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 37.
Walt's Projected Line: Ravens -9.
Sunday, Jan. 15, 1:00 ET
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Jan. 9, 2012 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are Russian Cleavage Pharmacist, Horny Teens, Soap Scuz Man.
Also, I've been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on NFL.com's GameCenter, most of which came from a creeper named Aaron3619.
If you recall from last week, Aaron has been having issues with a user named SuckOnMyFootball. My friend Emily sent me a series of comments that SuckOnMyFootball posted on Aaron's profile:
It took Aaron several days to hop onto GameCenter, but he responded with:
Did SuckOnMyFootball ever say that he/she is a girl? I don't think so, meaning Aaron's a bit delusional. I know, I know, a huge shock.
Other developments in the Aaron3619 saga this week:
1. I have to apologize to FalconsSuck. Here were FalconsSuck's posts last week:
I wrote, "FalconsSuck is my hero for the dog rapist comment. His posts were funny..."
Well, FalconsSuck is a girl. My bad. At least Aaron made the same mistake too, as FalconsSuck let him know:
I can only imagine what Aaron is thinking. "FalconsSuck is a girl? Does that mean she will send me nacked pic and bikini pic!?!?!?"
Aaron replied:
FalconsSuck didn't waste any time responding to Aaron:
Aaron just got served. No nacked and bikini pic from FalconsSuck. Luckily, there are other female GameCenter users to harass...
2. Remember StrikerSarah? If not, here's a quick reminder:
It took StrikerSarah a few weeks to reply, but she finally got back to Aaron.
So, what's the verdict? Is she going to send him nacked and bikini pic?
Drum roll...
Drum roll......
DRUM ROLL.........
REJECTED!!!
Riiiight. Because all "friends" demand nacked pic and bikini pic from each other.
Poor Aaron. How can he possibly recover from all of this rejection? Better yet, I wonder what would happen if someone asked Aaron for his nacked and/or bikini (Speedo) pic?
HOUSTON OFFENSE: T.J. Yates versus Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed. Yeah, this is going to be tough.
The Texans scored 24 points on offense against the Bengals. They were able to do this because Arian Foster rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. Cincinnati went into the contest pretty weak versus the run. The Ravens don't have that problem.
Baltimore ranks second versus the rush. The team has had some issues against it in the final few weeks of the season, but that can be attributed to Ray Lewis' struggles. Lewis wasn't close to 100 percent because he was coming off a toe injury. The bye was exactly what he needed, however, as he reportedly is close to full strength.
Yates will have to make some plays to win this game. Even with Andre Johnson a week healthier, that'll be extremely difficult with Baltimore's ferocious pass rush breathing down his neck. Yates was a bit lucky this past Saturday that the Bengals failed to take advantage of some mistakes, including two Foster fumbles and Yates' potential interception fired right at Chris Crocker. The Ravens will capitalize.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Following his overtime victory over the Steelers, John Fox said that it's "all about the players" when asked about the battle between his offensive coordinator and Dick LeBeau. Well, it's not all about the players in this contest - not when one of the coaches is Cam Cameron.
It sounds simple to give Ray Rice as many touches as possible, but Cameron has a habit of deviating from this strategy at the worst moment. If Rice isn't involved early and often, the Ravens will struggle to score. There's no question about that.
The Texans have a great defense. They're ninth versus the rush (4.01 YPC), second against the pass (6.2 YPA) and tied for fourth in sacks (48). Despite this, the Ravens were able to score 29 points in the prior meeting because of Rice, who rushed for 101 yards on 23 carries and caught five balls for 60 receiving yards. As dominant as Houston's stop unit can be, Rice is just way too talented to contain for 60 minutes.
You can see why Cameron needs to lean on Rice. Of course, there's also the issue of Joe Flacco, who is incredibly inconsistent. He can look great one quarter, but completely dreadful the next. Flacco will have Anquan Boldin back from minor knee surgery, but it's hard to trust Flacco against Wade Phillips' defense, though it should be noted that he went 20-of-33 for 305 yards, a rushing touchdown and an interception the last time these teams clashed.
RECAP: I'm leaning toward the Ravens. I don't like Yates' chances in Baltimore. If the Ravens go up 10-0 or 17-3, I can't imagine Yates leading his team back.
I won't be betting on the host though. Laying more than a touchdown with Flacco doesn't sound like a good time - the Ravens were 2-6 against the spread as favorites of six or more this year - and Baltimore has had a habit of crapping the bed versus inferior competition. I know this contest is at home, where they've been better, but the Ravens barely beat the Cardinals and Browns as hosts. Even Dan Orlovsky had a cheap backdoor cover against them.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Slight lean on the host.
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 6
Ravens -7.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Under 37 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Ravens 20, Texans 13
New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 53.
Walt's Projected Line: Packers -10.
Sunday, Jan. 15, 4:30 ET
The Game. Edge: Packers.
It's the final game of the second round of the playoffs, but we're going to have Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Green Bay! Tonight, the Packers play the stupid Giants. But I can tell you right now, guys. The Packers are losing. Lock it in. Call your bookie before it's too late!
Emmitt: Mike, what you say do not make any senses. How can somebody call a book? The five book I have in my house do not have any hand nor arm to pick up the telephone. And how can you know the Packer will win for sure? Do you have a diamond ball in your pocket that nobody know about?
Reilly: Emmitt, I said bookies; not books. The guys who can take your bets. Green Bay will lose. Mark my words. Gamble all your life savings on the Giants!
Herm: No gamblin! No betting! No wagering! No money spending! No bookies! Gamblin's bad! If you gamble, you're bad! So don't gamble, cuz you'll be bad! Because it's bad to gamble! And gamblin's bad! Uhh... gamblin... uhh...
Reilly: Hey Herm, I was just lying to everyone. Bet everything you have on the Packers! Go do it now! Ha, look, stupid Herm is thinking about betting the Packers!
Tollefson: Now, Kevin, I have a question. How can you possibly know that betting against the Packers is a sure thing? I'd love to pound the Giants and win lots of money so I can buy more concubines who will cook and clean for me, and then pleasure me sexually while I eat my meal, but I need to know for sure.
Kevin Reilly: That's privileged information, Don. Just know that the Packers will win. Mark my words.
Emmitt: Mike, what color marker do you think we should write on your word?
Reilly: Mark; not marker, Emmitt. OK, fine. I'll tell you. You know how Aaron Rodgers always wears those stupid hats? Well, I bought some lice and put it into his hat when he wasn't looking. I also put some lice into Herm's dinner yesterday. That's why he had diarrhea all night! Ha!
Millen: That intrigues me, Kevin. Let's see if you can follow me here. What if a person were to take some lice with his meal and then shove some kielbasa up his backside later on? How much would go in, and how much would go out? Something's gotta give, Kevin!
Reilly: Millen, you disgust me. Go bet on the stupid Packers with Herm. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers seemed pretty invincible until they battled the Chiefs. Romeo Crennel had his defense put immense pressure on Aaron Rodgers, which made life extremely difficult for him because the elite Kansas City corners took away his receivers - a group that was missing Greg Jennings.
Well, Jennings is back. That's one difference between this contest and the Chief game. The other is that the Giants don't exactly have unbelievable talents like Brandon Flowers, bastard of Highgarden, and Brandon Carr in their secondary. Their secondary has been known to blow coverage from time to time.
New York's pass rush is terrific though. With everyone healthy and Jason Pierre-Paul emerging as one of the top defensive talents in the NFL, the Giants can get to the quarterback as well as anyone. As I wrote in the Saints-49ers capsule, the only way to beat an elite quarterback - aside from kidnapping him and drugging him - is to apply immense pressure without blitzing. New York can certainly do that.
The Giants can also stop the run well now - they've allowed 3.5 YPC to opposing backs the past four weeks - so don't expect Ryan Grant or James Starks to do anything in the ground. Thus, Green Bay's offense will at least be somewhat limited, opening the door for Eli Manning and company to pull out a victory.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: And Manning certainly won't face much of a challenge. By now, you know how bad Green Bay's defense is, but as a reminder, the team has five sacks in its previous six games, and just surrendered 520 passing yards to Matthew Stafford in Week 17.
Manning threw all over the Packers as well. He went 23-of-40 for 347 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in a last-second loss to Green Bay back in Week 13. He threw a game-tying score with about a minute remaining, but left too much time on the clock for Rodgers.
The one bit of good news for Green Bay's defense is that it'll have Ryan Pickett back from a concussion. Pickett is a force versus the run, and he was certainly missed in Weeks 15 and 16. However, it should be noted that Pickett played in the first meeting versus the Giants, who were able to rack up 100 rushing yards on just 20 carries.
With Victor Cruz emerging as a potent weapon, the Packers will be too focused on containing him, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, so Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will be able to pick up where they left off last week. They'll be able to help the Giants control the clock, and they'll give Manning favorable down-and-distance situations.
RECAP: Some people think this spread is too high, but I think it's way too low. Think about it this way: The Packers were -6.5 at the Giants. You have to move the spread over six points (three to neutral, three to other site) to go from away to home, so this line would have been -12.5 back in Week 13. Of course, New York has played much better since, but four points better? That seems like a lot.
I thought this line would be -10, so there's no value with the Giants. I'm still taking them, however, because I think these teams are pretty even. Sure, Rodgers is on the other side, but New York has a much better running game and defense. That has to count for something, right?
I also regrettably have to factor in the death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son. If you haven't heard, the body of Philbin's son was found in a river Monday evening after he went missing Sunday morning. I can't even imagine what Philbin is going through right now. I don't see how he can possibly be focused on game planning for the Giants' improved defense.
TEASER HEDGE: The first leg of my teaser won, so I'm going to hedge with a unit on the Giants moneyline (+310). The only way I'm screwed is if the Packers win by one, so fingers crossed.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Giants are a popular upset pick this week, which can't sit well with Aaron Rodgers. On the other hand, offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son has been missing since Sunday morning, so I doubt he's 100-percent focused.
The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
The Giants are a major public dog.
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Giants 31
Giants +7.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Over 53 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Giants 37, Packers 20
Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Saints at 49ers, Broncos at Patriots
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
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07:19 am
xxx.xxx.xxx4.18
(total posts: 1)
2
2
Hello! caadbee interesting caadbee site! I'm really like it! Very, very caadbee good!
Pharmf106
03-22-2013
07:18 am
xxx.xxx.xxx.182
(total posts: 1)
2
2
Hello! degecee interesting degecee site! I'm really like it! Very, very degecee good!
@Guru
03-20-2013
10:22 am
xxx.xxx.xxx.157
(total posts: 11)
2
3
We are looking for you over in the ncaa forum. Great picks on sunday. You won us all a few bucks. Thanks again !!
Browns4Life
03-19-2013
05:54 am
xxx.xxx.xxx6.34
(total posts: 1)
3
2
oh yeah baby, 4-0
Gman
03-18-2013
07:34 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx5.42
(total posts: 5)
2
2
Guru I'm still looking good fu.kin job .
theguru66
03-18-2013
06:44 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx16.2
(total posts: 19)
13
3
Not bad yesterday as I went 3-1. Missed that over in the Buckeye game after a nice 3-0 start. Oh well. Anyway, let's keep the train rolling shall we? I have a couple of picks for the passengers tonight...
7:35; Atlanta Hawks hosting Dallas tonight and after the mavs lost that heartbreaker to the Thunder last night it's hard for me to imagine them getting up for a back to back game on the road. The Hawks impressed me last night with their win in Brooklyn and they are known to be a streaky team. I see them keeping the streak going tonight and taking care of buisness against the Mavs. Line has moved to 4 1/2 now but I think they'll win by 9-12. Lay the points and take Hot-lanta. 8:30; Calgary visits Dallas for a date with the Stars and I like the under in this contest. I know both of the previous contests between these two this year have gone way over (a 11 and 7 goals game) but Calgary has scored 3 goals in their last 3 road games and Dallas has scored THREE goals in their last FOUR games and 3 of them were at HOME. I just don't see that many twine ticklers tonight and I see a 3-1 final. Monday's Recap: Atlanta hawks -4 1/2 Calgary/Dallas under 5 1/2 Good luck passengers!
RGMass
03-17-2013
05:58 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.186
(total posts: 13)
2
2
Great run today Guru. 3-1 is awesome!! I always seem to miss the 4th game in parlays but still it was an awesome day!! I also like a few games in the NBA today:
New Orleans/Minn over 189 Golden State/Houston over 216 OKC/Mavericks over 208 GLTA!!!
Vail skier
03-17-2013
03:30 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx3.78
(total posts: 11)
5
2
Guru66 good job so far, keep it up, hope everything is going good for you.
RGMass
03-17-2013
03:07 am
xxx.xxx.xxx.186
(total posts: 13)
4
2
Guru I love those picks for tomorrow. I'm rolling with you!! LETS GO!!
theguru66
03-17-2013
02:02 am
xxx.xxx.xxx.112
(total posts: 2)
25
2
I don't know how many guys are still looking at this sight but if I help ONE person tomorrow I'll take it. OK, here is the deal. I have been crushing college basketball this week. Some of you posted that I did well last year in March with NCAA hoops and you'd be right. In fact, I usually do well during these conference tourny's. Saturday I hit 9 of 13 plays in college sooooooo I've decided to cap and post the four finals tomorrow. So without further ado, let's get this train rolling shall we?...
1pm; ACC Championship pits the TarHeels and the Hurricanes. North Carolina has been here done that and just like Florida St. last year, Miami is hungrier. NC is in the dance and their banged up. They beat Maryland but it took a lot out of them. Miami just smoked NC State, they never trailed in the game and are playing for a possible one seed. THEN you can throw in the fact that Miami beat North Carolina TWICE already this year and this one is easy for me. Miami WON the ACC regular season this year for a reason. THEY ARE VERY TALENTED. North Carolina gets the line decrease because of their name and I'll take that all day long. Miami wins this game by at LEAST 8, I'm thinking 10+. Lay the points. 1pm; SEC final and this one is also easy for me. I might be reading these all wrong but I don't see it. Ol Miss getting 11 points is nuts IMO. Florida has looked average over the last month and lost to Kentucky when they were up 7 with 5 to go. Kentucky is terrible and shouldn't be in the tourny if they make it. How do you lose to Vandy fighting for your tourny lives? How, when your not that good. Anyway, Ol Miss needs this game badly and will play their hearts out. They are also hungrier and this game should come down to the wire. Take the points. 1pm; I've won a lot of money this year with the St. Louis Bilikens. This is a VERY good team and will make noise in the dance. They are going to win the A-10 title tomorrow and although VCU is good and will do everything they can to slow them down, St. Louis should win this game easy. They played only once this year and although they were at home they were up 17 at the half. I have St. Louis by 7-9 in this game and will gladly lay 2, their 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and 21-9 against teams with a winning record ATS in their last 30. 3:30; The Badgers Buckeye game is by far the hardest of the day in my humble opinion. Ohio State probably has the better players and that usually wins in games like this but Wisconsin has looked awesome during this tourny. What I have learned over the years is that these games are hard fought and intense and there is usually a slight uptick in scoring due to the fouling and never give up attitude that these games bring. It will be close but I think this game goes over the total. 118 means they both have to get to 60 and I see this in the 67-64 range. If I had to chose the line I would take Ohio State but I like the over the best in this play. Sunday's NCAA Tourny Finals recap: Miami -3 Mississippi +11 St. Louis -2 Wisconsin/Ohio State over 118 Good Luck to everyone who's left and enjoy the great games!
kvngr
03-14-2013
05:23 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx8.66
(total posts: 1)
2
2
If I remember right the train was steaming thru march madness last year.Hope life throws you some juicy fastballs soon theguru66.
@theguru66
03-13-2013
01:39 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.100
(total posts: 1)
3
3
Haven't seen you on here for a while - figured something was up. Someone posted you were done with the site because of some childish behavior. But that didn't seem correct since you dealt with it for so long. Well, glad to see you will be coming back, if that really is you posting (since the IP address seems different). I'm looking forward to NCAA tourney picks from you. I think you did modertely well last year.
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2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 24
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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 8-8 (W2) |
Bears: 6-10 (L1) |
Bucs: 8-7 (L1) |
49ers: 8-10 (W1) |
| Eagles: 8-8 (L1) |
Lions: 8-7 (L2) |
Falcons: 4-12 (L4) |
Cardinals: 11-5 (W3) |
| Giants: 6-9 (L6) |
Packers: 7-11 (L1) |
Panthers: 9-7 (W4) |
Rams: 9-7 (L1) |
| Redskins: 9-8 (L1) |
Vikings: 6-10 (W1) |
Saints: 7-9 (W2) |
Seahawks: 9-9 (L3) |
| |
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| Bills: 6-10 (L3) |
Bengals: 8-8 (W1) |
Colts: 9-8 (L2) |
Broncos: 4-13 (L1) |
| Dolphins: 9-6 (W1) |
Browns: 7-8 (W1) |
Jaguars: 7-9 (L1) |
Chargers: 7-9 (L1) |
| Jets: 8-8 (L1) |
Ravens: 12-8 (W2) |
Texans: 9-7 (W1) |
Chiefs: 8-8 (W2) |
| Patriots: 10-7 (W1) |
Steelers: 7-8 (W1) |
Titans: 8-8 (L1) |
Raiders: 6-10 (L1) |
| |
|
||
| Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43) |
2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22) |
2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23) |
2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55) |
| 2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24) |
Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6) |
Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0) |
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
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2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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