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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2011): 7-8-1 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)

NFL Picks (2011): 133-130-12 (-$2,175)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Jan. 15, 11:15 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games



Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 37.

Walt's Projected Line: Ravens -9.
Sunday, Jan. 15, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Jan. 9, 2012 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are Russian Cleavage Pharmacist, Horny Teens, Soap Scuz Man.

Also, I've been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on NFL.com's GameCenter, most of which came from a creeper named Aaron3619.

If you recall from last week, Aaron has been having issues with a user named SuckOnMyFootball. My friend Emily sent me a series of comments that SuckOnMyFootball posted on Aaron's profile:




It took Aaron several days to hop onto GameCenter, but he responded with:



Did SuckOnMyFootball ever say that he/she is a girl? I don't think so, meaning Aaron's a bit delusional. I know, I know, a huge shock.

Other developments in the Aaron3619 saga this week:

1. I have to apologize to FalconsSuck. Here were FalconsSuck's posts last week:



I wrote, "FalconsSuck is my hero for the dog rapist comment. His posts were funny..."

Well, FalconsSuck is a girl. My bad. At least Aaron made the same mistake too, as FalconsSuck let him know:



I can only imagine what Aaron is thinking. "FalconsSuck is a girl? Does that mean she will send me nacked pic and bikini pic!?!?!?"

Aaron replied:



FalconsSuck didn't waste any time responding to Aaron:



Aaron just got served. No nacked and bikini pic from FalconsSuck. Luckily, there are other female GameCenter users to harass...

2. Remember StrikerSarah? If not, here's a quick reminder:



It took StrikerSarah a few weeks to reply, but she finally got back to Aaron.

So, what's the verdict? Is she going to send him nacked and bikini pic?

Drum roll...

Drum roll......

DRUM ROLL.........



REJECTED!!!



Riiiight. Because all "friends" demand nacked pic and bikini pic from each other.

Poor Aaron. How can he possibly recover from all of this rejection? Better yet, I wonder what would happen if someone asked Aaron for his nacked and/or bikini (Speedo) pic?

HOUSTON OFFENSE: T.J. Yates versus Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed. Yeah, this is going to be tough.

The Texans scored 24 points on offense against the Bengals. They were able to do this because Arian Foster rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. Cincinnati went into the contest pretty weak versus the run. The Ravens don't have that problem.

Baltimore ranks second versus the rush. The team has had some issues against it in the final few weeks of the season, but that can be attributed to Ray Lewis' struggles. Lewis wasn't close to 100 percent because he was coming off a toe injury. The bye was exactly what he needed, however, as he reportedly is close to full strength.

Yates will have to make some plays to win this game. Even with Andre Johnson a week healthier, that'll be extremely difficult with Baltimore's ferocious pass rush breathing down his neck. Yates was a bit lucky this past Saturday that the Bengals failed to take advantage of some mistakes, including two Foster fumbles and Yates' potential interception fired right at Chris Crocker. The Ravens will capitalize.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Following his overtime victory over the Steelers, John Fox said that it's "all about the players" when asked about the battle between his offensive coordinator and Dick LeBeau. Well, it's not all about the players in this contest - not when one of the coaches is Cam Cameron.

It sounds simple to give Ray Rice as many touches as possible, but Cameron has a habit of deviating from this strategy at the worst moment. If Rice isn't involved early and often, the Ravens will struggle to score. There's no question about that.

The Texans have a great defense. They're ninth versus the rush (4.01 YPC), second against the pass (6.2 YPA) and tied for fourth in sacks (48). Despite this, the Ravens were able to score 29 points in the prior meeting because of Rice, who rushed for 101 yards on 23 carries and caught five balls for 60 receiving yards. As dominant as Houston's stop unit can be, Rice is just way too talented to contain for 60 minutes.

You can see why Cameron needs to lean on Rice. Of course, there's also the issue of Joe Flacco, who is incredibly inconsistent. He can look great one quarter, but completely dreadful the next. Flacco will have Anquan Boldin back from minor knee surgery, but it's hard to trust Flacco against Wade Phillips' defense, though it should be noted that he went 20-of-33 for 305 yards, a rushing touchdown and an interception the last time these teams clashed.

RECAP: I'm leaning toward the Ravens. I don't like Yates' chances in Baltimore. If the Ravens go up 10-0 or 17-3, I can't imagine Yates leading his team back.

I won't be betting on the host though. Laying more than a touchdown with Flacco doesn't sound like a good time - the Ravens were 2-6 against the spread as favorites of six or more this year - and Baltimore has had a habit of crapping the bed versus inferior competition. I know this contest is at home, where they've been better, but the Ravens barely beat the Cardinals and Browns as hosts. Even Dan Orlovsky had a cheap backdoor cover against them.





The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Slight lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 60% (122,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Big Winner: Teams coming off wins of 21-plus at home in the playoffs are 3-8 ATS the following week since 2002.
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 12-20 ATS since 2003 (9-15 since 2005).
  • Opening Line: Ravens -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Sunny, 32 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 19 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 6
    Ravens -7.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 37 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Ravens 20, Texans 13






    New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)
    Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 53.

    Walt's Projected Line: Packers -10.
    Sunday, Jan. 15, 4:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    It's the final game of the second round of the playoffs, but we're going to have Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Green Bay! Tonight, the Packers play the stupid Giants. But I can tell you right now, guys. The Packers are losing. Lock it in. Call your bookie before it's too late!

    Emmitt: Mike, what you say do not make any senses. How can somebody call a book? The five book I have in my house do not have any hand nor arm to pick up the telephone. And how can you know the Packer will win for sure? Do you have a diamond ball in your pocket that nobody know about?

    Reilly: Emmitt, I said bookies; not books. The guys who can take your bets. Green Bay will lose. Mark my words. Gamble all your life savings on the Giants!

    Herm: No gamblin! No betting! No wagering! No money spending! No bookies! Gamblin's bad! If you gamble, you're bad! So don't gamble, cuz you'll be bad! Because it's bad to gamble! And gamblin's bad! Uhh... gamblin... uhh...

    Reilly: Hey Herm, I was just lying to everyone. Bet everything you have on the Packers! Go do it now! Ha, look, stupid Herm is thinking about betting the Packers!

    Tollefson: Now, Kevin, I have a question. How can you possibly know that betting against the Packers is a sure thing? I'd love to pound the Giants and win lots of money so I can buy more concubines who will cook and clean for me, and then pleasure me sexually while I eat my meal, but I need to know for sure.

    Kevin Reilly: That's privileged information, Don. Just know that the Packers will win. Mark my words.

    Emmitt: Mike, what color marker do you think we should write on your word?

    Reilly: Mark; not marker, Emmitt. OK, fine. I'll tell you. You know how Aaron Rodgers always wears those stupid hats? Well, I bought some lice and put it into his hat when he wasn't looking. I also put some lice into Herm's dinner yesterday. That's why he had diarrhea all night! Ha!

    Millen: That intrigues me, Kevin. Let's see if you can follow me here. What if a person were to take some lice with his meal and then shove some kielbasa up his backside later on? How much would go in, and how much would go out? Something's gotta give, Kevin!

    Reilly: Millen, you disgust me. Go bet on the stupid Packers with Herm. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers seemed pretty invincible until they battled the Chiefs. Romeo Crennel had his defense put immense pressure on Aaron Rodgers, which made life extremely difficult for him because the elite Kansas City corners took away his receivers - a group that was missing Greg Jennings.

    Well, Jennings is back. That's one difference between this contest and the Chief game. The other is that the Giants don't exactly have unbelievable talents like Brandon Flowers, bastard of Highgarden, and Brandon Carr in their secondary. Their secondary has been known to blow coverage from time to time.

    New York's pass rush is terrific though. With everyone healthy and Jason Pierre-Paul emerging as one of the top defensive talents in the NFL, the Giants can get to the quarterback as well as anyone. As I wrote in the Saints-49ers capsule, the only way to beat an elite quarterback - aside from kidnapping him and drugging him - is to apply immense pressure without blitzing. New York can certainly do that.

    The Giants can also stop the run well now - they've allowed 3.5 YPC to opposing backs the past four weeks - so don't expect Ryan Grant or James Starks to do anything in the ground. Thus, Green Bay's offense will at least be somewhat limited, opening the door for Eli Manning and company to pull out a victory.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: And Manning certainly won't face much of a challenge. By now, you know how bad Green Bay's defense is, but as a reminder, the team has five sacks in its previous six games, and just surrendered 520 passing yards to Matthew Stafford in Week 17.

    Manning threw all over the Packers as well. He went 23-of-40 for 347 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in a last-second loss to Green Bay back in Week 13. He threw a game-tying score with about a minute remaining, but left too much time on the clock for Rodgers.

    The one bit of good news for Green Bay's defense is that it'll have Ryan Pickett back from a concussion. Pickett is a force versus the run, and he was certainly missed in Weeks 15 and 16. However, it should be noted that Pickett played in the first meeting versus the Giants, who were able to rack up 100 rushing yards on just 20 carries.

    With Victor Cruz emerging as a potent weapon, the Packers will be too focused on containing him, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, so Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will be able to pick up where they left off last week. They'll be able to help the Giants control the clock, and they'll give Manning favorable down-and-distance situations.

    RECAP: Some people think this spread is too high, but I think it's way too low. Think about it this way: The Packers were -6.5 at the Giants. You have to move the spread over six points (three to neutral, three to other site) to go from away to home, so this line would have been -12.5 back in Week 13. Of course, New York has played much better since, but four points better? That seems like a lot.

    I thought this line would be -10, so there's no value with the Giants. I'm still taking them, however, because I think these teams are pretty even. Sure, Rodgers is on the other side, but New York has a much better running game and defense. That has to count for something, right?

    I also regrettably have to factor in the death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son. If you haven't heard, the body of Philbin's son was found in a river Monday evening after he went missing Sunday morning. I can't even imagine what Philbin is going through right now. I don't see how he can possibly be focused on game planning for the Giants' improved defense.

    TEASER HEDGE: The first leg of my teaser won, so I'm going to hedge with a unit on the Giants moneyline (+310). The only way I'm screwed is if the Packers win by one, so fingers crossed.





    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Giants are a popular upset pick this week, which can't sit well with Aaron Rodgers. On the other hand, offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son has been missing since Sunday morning, so I doubt he's 100-percent focused.


    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    The Giants are a major public dog.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 64% (121,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Big Winner: Teams coming off wins of 21-plus at home in the playoffs are 3-8 ATS the following week since 2002.
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 12-20 ATS since 2003 (9-15 since 2005).
  • Giants are 31-17 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 33-17 ATS since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Packers -9.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 26 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.


    Week 19 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Giants 31
    Giants +7.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 53 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Giants 37, Packers 20




    Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
    Saints at 49ers, Broncos at Patriots


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Moneyline Underdog: 49ers +160 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$80
  • Moneyline Underdog: Broncos +525 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Teaser: Ravens -1.5, Packers -1.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
  • Teaser Hedge: Giants +310 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$310

    Leave a comment

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    GStar 10-04-2012 12:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    11     6

    @Matt

    This is not a media over-reaction to the Jets. This is the Texans being dominant on both sides of the ball. Until they show there's a reason to fade them I'll take HOU @ -8 or -8.5.
    foggwesr 10-04-2012 12:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.75 (total posts: 9)
    5     7

    Great work Walt, I always appreciate your opinion and stats. As to the Browns - Giants game you said that road teams coming off a road loss cover at a 67 % rate. This should also apply to the Seahawks vs. the Panthers. It looks like another reason to take the Seahawks.
    theguru66 10-04-2012 12:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    7     14

    @BIGTIMEBRO

    Google Firstrowsports and enjoy, great sight. Good Luck

    june 10-04-2012 12:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.114 (total posts: 14)
    25     14

    Steelers -3
    Packers -7
    bears -6
    texans -8

    thums up or down or am i playing into vegas hands.
    june 10-04-2012 12:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.114 (total posts: 14)
    6     6

    jets +8 ????? really ??? Wow !!! I think you better keep ya 3 units in ya pocket on that one walt. The jets are gonna be motivated playing this game but they just don't have the fire power to keep it that close. The texas can look past this game and still cover the +8.
    GStar 10-04-2012 12:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    5     6

    What do you guys think about Arksansas State at F.I?

    The line has moved from ARK +1.5 to ARK -2. I'm thinking about locking in ARK @ -0.5.
    Lance 10-04-2012 11:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx.137 (total posts: 12)
    7     8

    I agree. The Falcons have nothing to play for in Week 5.
    GStar 10-04-2012 11:41 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    6     5

    @BTB

    Some of the sites I've used for streaming sports in the past are:

    sportlemon.tv
    atdhenet.tv
    firstrowsports.tv

    Not sure which are still active but I'm sure at least 1 is.
    Matt 10-04-2012 11:37 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.32 (total posts: 6)
    7     9

    I absolutely LOVE the Jets picks. I am surprised they are not the pick of the month. Classic public and media overreaction. The talking heads on ESPN are already throwing dirt on the presumably dead 2012 NY Jets. Once I cash in on the Pittsburgh pick I am going to let it ride and take the NYJ +8.

    Nice work this week Walt. I liked Pitt and NYJ as soon as the lines came out on Tuesday. I'm glad you agree.
    Matt Money 10-04-2012 11:33 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.24 (total posts: 1)
    6     6

    up: garcon vs atl
    down: amendola vs cards
    BIG TIME BRO!!! 10-04-2012 11:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx133, (total posts: 1)
    5     5

    Yo fellas......anybody know of a website i can catch the Sunday Night Football game on? Gonna be flying back to Cali from NY and DELTA doesnt offer NBC TV on their flight but have wi-fi so i can watch it on my ipad. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks and good luck to all. NO ML and -3 in that game btw. I wanna party, gamble, and look and some healthy stewardess balloon knot on my flight back
    GStar 10-04-2012 11:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    5     6

    With the Rams lack of a passing game and poor offensive showing against Seattle I can't find any reason to go against the Cardinals with such a small spread.

    Maybe a 'gimmie' from the books after getting you slags on the Browns/Ravens game?

    ARZ -1.5 for 1 unit

    -

    On a side note we've got some Canadian Football League action tomorrow night. I'm going to go with 4 units on Hamilton Tigercats -0.5.

    Edmonton has struggled since end of August and is having injury problems with their starting + backup QBs (they started their 3rd string QB last game). Hamilton beat Edmonton 51-8 earlier in the season and Henry Burris, who used to play for Edmonton's rival Calgary, is very familiar with handing it to this Edmonton squad.
    Johnny 10-04-2012 10:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 1)
    5     6

    What's wrong with ugs? They are soft and are nice slippers.
    I wouldn't mind having my wife do the same for me.
    Danielo65 10-04-2012 10:20 am xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 72)
    7     6

    I was on the Rams this past Sunday, and maybe Arizona seems like the "square" pick, but I just can't take St Louis getting less than a field goal here. The playmakers are all on the visiting side. I think it's worth a shot to tease AZ and the U
    Mr. Pickem 10-04-2012 08:17 am xxx.xxx.xxx.230 (total posts: 1)
    8     6

    Stats are just that, stats. You think 20 - 16
    Ok. Who's going to score???? Tebow? Sanchez??
    Jets gave up vs 49ers.
    Jets will give up 25min into this game. Right after 2 fumbles and a 14point uphill climb.

    Best defense vs Worst offense
    Best running team vs worst defense
    Johnson vs Revis??? Nope


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 29


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - July 23


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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