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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)

NFL Picks (2011): 57-54-7 (-$3,005)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Oct. 31, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games



Washington Redskins (3-3) at Toronto Bills (4-2)
Line: Bills by 6. Total: 45.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Bills -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Bills -3.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bills.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here's the NFL.com Fantasy Draft - Round 3:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 3. When we left off, Dennis Green was a dick, so Charles Davis disinvited him from his birthday party.

Dennis Green: That's bulls***, bulls***! I didn't want to go to Charles Davis' stupid birthday party anyway!

Rich Eisen: Really? Then why did you yell "NOOOOOOOOOO" when you were initially disinvited?

Dennis Green: Because... because... you're a f***ing a**hole, Rich, that's why!

Rich Eisen: Dennis, you mad bro? Anyway, I'm going to regret announcing this, but Matt Millen, it's your turn again.

Matt Millen: And here's what you mean by "it's your turn again..."

Rich Eisen: Stop it. Just stop it. Everyone knows what I meant. Just make your pick, and I swear to God, if you make perverted comments again, I'm going to strip you of another pick.

Kurt Warner: You shouldn't swear to God, Rich. That's bad!

Rich Eisen: I don't care anymore. This draft has been going on for hours, and we're in the middle of Round 3. I want to get this over with so I can go home and sleep with my wife.

Matt Millen: I'm going to take Calvin Johnson.

Dennis Green: HA!!! WHAT A F***ING IDIOT! CALVIN JOHNSON WAS TAKEN TWO F***ING ROUNDS AGO!

Rich Eisen: Seriously, Matt, did you really think you were going to get Calvin Johnson in Round 3?

Matt Millen: This is fantasy football, is it not? And here's what I mean by fantasy football...

Rich Eisen: Stop it, Matt! Stop it! We know what fantasy football is!

Matt Millen: And here's what I mean by fantasy football. There's real-life football, which is real and in life. And then there's fantasy football, which is not real and not in life, but more imaginary than anything else. It's a fantasy. Fantasy football. A fantasy is whatever you want it to be, and what I want my fantasy football experience to be is having my wide receiver Calvin Johnson come to my hotel room, so I can shove some kielbasa up his a...

Rich Eisen: And you've now forfeited your third consecutive pick. Congratulations, Matt.

Matt Millen: And here's what you mean by congratulations...

Rich Eisen: Jesus f***ing Christ.

Kurt Warner: Take that back, Rich! Take that back!

Rich Eisen: Let's take a break while I find a noose so I can hang myself. Stay tuned next week for more of Round 3. This draft will never end.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Trent Williams - gone. Santana Moss - gone. Tim Hightower of Oldtown - gone. Kory Lichstensteiger - gone. Chris Cooley - gone. Is anyone still playing for the Redskins?

John Beck is, and he had a solid outing against the Panthers, going 22-of-37 for 217 yards, one touchdown and an interception. But that was against a crappy Carolina defense. Toronto will provide a much stiffer challenge, right?

No, I don't think so. The Redskins have a plethora of injuries, but the Bills have the most significant one. Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams is out, so Washington should be able to establish the run with Roy Helu, setting up short-yardage opportunities for Beck. The Bills have no pass rush, so Beck will have a clean pocket to find Fred Davis and Jabar Gaffney.

TORONTO OFFENSE: Unlike the Bills, the Redskins can really get to the quarterback. Their 21 sacks ties them for the NFL lead. Something has to give though because Toronto has surrendered the fewest sacks in the league (7).

Stopping the run has to be more of a concern for Washington. Fred Jackson has been prolific this year, and should be able to pick up where he left off prior to the bye. The Redskins have permitted 252 rushing yards the past two weeks.

Jackson's ability to rip off huge chunks of yardage will make life much easier for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who won't have to worry about Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan breathing down his neck.

RECAP: I'm expecting the Bills to be on an emotional low for two reasons:

1. Following this "easy" game over the injury-ravaged Redskins, they battle the Jets and Cowboys.

2. The Bills have never covered a game in Toronto. They just have trouble getting up for their opponents when they have to play north of the border. It's not hard to imagine why. They don't have a rabid crowd supporting them, and they're essentially conceding a precious home game.

LOCKED IN: The Redskins are +6 -105 on Bodog as of Thursday afternoon. It's +6 -110 at CRIS as well. Get it in before it drops to 5.5, because that's exactly what it did on 5Dimes.


The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
Tough spot for the Bills. They're in a Breather Alert with the Jets and Cowboys coming up. Plus, they never get up for these terrible Toronto games.


The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
The money is all over Toronto.
  • Percentage of money on Toronto: 85% (75,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Bills are 0-2 ATS in Toronto.
  • Opening Line: Bills -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 49 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Redskins 19
    Redskins +6 -105 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$315
    Under 45 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bills 23, Redskins 0





    Detroit Lions (5-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4)
    Line: Lions by 3. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Lions -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Lions -3.
    Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:05 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Lions.

    As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 68 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. Twenty-four people lost last week compared to the 900 who dropped out in Week 5. Nineteen went out with the Ravens, while five people picked the Raiders and Kyle Boller, for some strange reason.

    Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it's good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

    DENVER OFFENSE: How can I not begin this pick analysis without discussing Tim Tebow? I thought Tebow was awesome against the Dolphins. Things looked terrible through 55 minutes, but I love how his detractors don't mention: A) The offensive line's inability to pass protect (7 sacks), B) Demaryius Thomas dropping passes and running wrong routes, and C) John Fox and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy creating a half-a**ed offensive game plan that didn't cater to Tebow's strengths.

    Tebow definitely heaves some ugly passes, but it's not like he can't throw the ball. In Week 16 last year, he went 16-of-29 for 308 yards, one touchdown and a pick. The Lions are good against aerial attacks, so I wouldn't expect that this upcoming Sunday, but Tebow should be able to do what he does best - run around, make plays and ultimately win games.

    One issue for the Broncos is that Willis McGahee is out. Knowshon Moreno will start against an abysmal Detroit ground defense that has yielded at least 113 rushing yards to every opponent since Week 2.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have really struggled on offense the past four weeks. They scored 16 against the Falcons and 19 versus the 49ers at home. Prior to that, they had only a few successful drives on Monday night against the Bears. And then there was that 34-point mirage at Dallas that wasn't very impressive when you consider Tony Romo's pick-sixes.

    There are two issues here. First is Jahvid Best's injury. Best was healthy prior to the Atlanta contest, but not having him really bogged down Detroit's scoring attack against a very pedestrian Falcon stop unit. Best was a huge threat as a pass-receiver coming out of the backfield. Maurice Morris is not.

    Second is the offensive line. Matthew Stafford gets no protection, and now has to deal with Von Miller breathing down his neck. This, of course, assumes that Stafford will even play. He's expected to, but may not be 100 percent.

    RECAP: I have no situational angles to support this pick, but I like the Broncos because the Lions are struggling and Tebow will find some way to win. There's no spread on this game yet, but this will probably be a single-unit wager.

    BEST LINE: The Broncos are +3 +110 at Bodog on Sunday morning.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
    Everyone hates Tim Tebow.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 83% (61,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Lions are 14-20 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Lions are 6-15 ATS against losing teams the previous 21 instances.
  • Broncos are 22-12 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 34 instances.
  • Broncos are 9-18 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
  • Broncos are 4-14 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 18 instances.
  • Opening Line: Lions -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Normal weather.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Broncos 19, Lions 17
    Broncos +3 +110 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Lions 45, Broncos 10






    New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
    Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 52.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Patriots -1.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Patriots -1.
    Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:15 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    If you didn't see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 7 has been posted - Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz prepare for World War III - the final battle against each other.

    Also, a friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 24, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are the Jerks of Megatron's Mistress Weekend.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: This is one of those situations where one team's strength matches up against another team's strength, and its weakness clashes against the opposition's weakness. The Patriots have Tom Brady and all of his weapons, but the Steelers rank first against the pass. Pittsburgh struggles to stop the run, but New England doesn't exactly rush the ball well.

    Ultimately though, you have to believe that Brady will prevail. First of all, he's, well, Tom Brady. Second, Pittsburgh's ranking might be a bit misleading. Excluding Matt Schaub, check out the quarterbacks the Steelers have battled this year: Joe Flacco, Tarvaris Jackson, Kerry Collins/Curtis Painter, Matt Hasselbeck, Blaine Gabbert and Kevin Kolb. That's not exactly a future Hall of Fame class.

    Oh, and third, Brady dominates the Steelers. In five meetings against Ben Roethlisberger, he's scored 20, 41, 23, 34 and 39 points.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: This is all strength versus weakness because New England's defense, to quote Michael Wilbon, is junk.

    The Patriots are OK against the run (11th; 4.1 YPC), but they can't stop the pass whatsoever. They're dead last in aerial defense, surrendering an 8.5 YPA. The secondary is an issue, but the real culprit is a lacking pass rush that has produced only 10 sacks in 2011.

    Pittsburgh has had major problems establishing the run with a dancing Rashard Mendenhall, but Roethlisberger has looked as sharp as ever throwing the ball. That's because Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are really starting to emerge as solid complementary weapons for Mike Wallace.

    RECAP: I'm taking the Patriots for three reasons, First, Brady is 6-1 against the Steelers in his career. As mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh's defense has had no answer for him.

    Second, road favorites off a bye are an amazing 29-9 against the spread. Bill Belichick with an extra week to prepare for his opponent? Are you kidding me?

    And third, I feel like the Steelers are overrated. Their five wins have come against the Seahawks (2-4), who were playing a dreaded early game on the East Coast, Cardinals (1-5), Colts (0-7) by three points, Titans (3-3) without Kenny Britt and Jaguars (2-5) by four points.

    This won't be a heavy wager because Roethlisberger has a good spread record as an underdog, but I like New England for a couple of units.

    LOCKED IN: I'm not sure if this spread is moving off -3 or not. With that in mind, I'd obviously rather have the -3 +105 being offered at 5Dimes on Wednesday afternoon than a potential -3 -115 or -120 come Sunday.

    ADDITIONAL BET: I'm putting two more units on New England now that the spread has dropped to -2.5. Tom Brady is a perfect 7-0 ATS in his career as a favorite when the line is 1-2.5 points. This is not some fluke stat; Brady just wins games, and this spread indicates that all he has to basically do is pull out a victory.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game for perhaps homefield advantage.


    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
    No surprise that people are betting the Pats.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 79% (83,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Tom Brady is 126-41 as a starter (98-65 ATS).
  • Steelers are 29-16 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Steelers are 14-8 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 52.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Steelers 27
    Patriots -3 +105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
    Patriots -2.5 -110 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 52 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Steelers 25, Patriots 17






    Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1)
    Line: 49ers by 9. Total: 38.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): 49ers -9.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): 49ers -10.
    Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:15 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.

    It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com's GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

    1. This first quote was from Julian F. He sent this to me prior to the season. It's amazing how things turned out:

    "I hope AL trades our first round pick 4 Palmer he wants outof bungal land."

    At the time, Julian F. wrote: "People might laugh about this guy right now, but watch out: In 10 years, he will be Al Davis' successor."

    Screw 10 years. How about now?

    2. "well colts r done for therre season "

    The silver lining is that you can spend the rest of the fall learning the difference between there, their, they're and therre.

    3. "texans are like shemales they arnt suppose to happen yet some people like them lol"

    This person is clearly in league with racist ESPN and NBC's bias against Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month. Seriously, what an ignorant statement. This is the type of opression that Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexuals have been fighting for years.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It almost feels wrong that I have the 49ers fourth in my NFL Power Rankings. I mean, Alex Smith is the quarterback. Smith has been much better with Jim Harbaugh, but still... he's Alex Smith.

    Smith should continue to play well until he's exposed in the playoffs. The Browns probably won't offer much resistance. Prior to last week, Cleveland had surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to every opponent in 2011. Even with Marshawn Lynch sidelined, they still gave up more than four yards per carry to Seattle. Frank Gore, who has really piled up the rushing yards since guard Chilo Rachal was benched in favor of Adam Snyder, should have another great performance.

    Gore's running will open things up for Smith. Shutdown corner Joe Haden will take Miguel Lobsterbush out of the game, but the 49ers should still be able to move the chains consistently.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I have no idea how the Browns are going to score against San Francisco's beastly defense. Even if Peyton Hillis returns to the lineup - keep in mind that he may not be 100 percent - the 49ers rank second versus the rush. No team has gained more than 84 yards against them on the ground this year.

    As a consequence, Colt McCoy will be stuck in frequent third-and-long situations. This will be a major issue because San Francisco can consistently pressure the quarterback, thanks mostly to rookie Aldon Smith, who has 5.5 sacks in the past three weeks.

    The one bright spot for Cleveland's offense recently has been the emergence of Greg Little. The rookie out of North Carolina has the raw talent to be a really good receiver in this league, but his potential will never be fulfilled as long as McCoy keeps struggling. Unfortunately for the Browns, Little will have to deal with cornerback Carlos Rogers, who has been outstanding this year.

    RECAP: This has blowout written all over it. The Browns are garbage, while the 49ers are a really good team coming off a bye. I gave you this system earlier, but non-divisional favorites after a bye are 40-22 against the spread at home since 2002.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    Why would anyone bet Cleveland right now?
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 79% (41,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Browns 0
    49ers -9 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 38 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    SURVIVOR PICK (5-2)
    49ers 20, Browns 10






    Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4)
    Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Seahawks -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Seahawks -1.
    Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:15 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.

    More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: From reading these idiotic posts every week for the past three years, I think we can confirm that the people on GameCenter fall into three categories: 1) little kids. 2) brain-dead people. 3) losers who do nothing but play World of Warcraft.

    What do these three demographics have in common? They don't get laid.

    So, with that in mind, what happens when a hot chick starts posting on GameCenter? If the answer isn't obvious, I can show you.

    There's a user named Kimbrkitty. Here's her profile picture:



    Here are some of the more perverted comments sent her way:

    1. "*dog whistle* reeeeoooowr"

    Because this works so well for you in real life, you just had to try it on GameCenter, eh?

    2. "wsp s.e.x.y"

    Great job separating each letter in "sexy" with periods. That's the classy way to spell "sexy." She's sure to go for you.

    3. "you look like a wanna-be wh0re...if that's what you were attempting to accomplish, congratulations you've succeeded!"

    Heterosexually challenged, much? Not that there's anything wrong with that.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: It's not yet clear who's going to start between Tarvaris "Poop Salad" Jackson and Charlie S***hurst, but the end result for Seattle will probably be crappy regardless. See what I did there? Poop, s***, crappy? Meh. Sorry, I needed to make this write-up somewhat exciting.

    Whitehurst was awful against the Browns, but in all fairness, he was coming off a post-lockout bye and had to play an early game on the East Coast. I have to believe he'll be better at home, though the matchup for No. 1 receiver Sidney Rice won't get much easier going from Joe Haden to Leon Hall.

    Marshawn Lynch's status is also in doubt. Regardless of whether he starts or not, Seattle won't have much success running the ball against Cincinnati's fifth-ranked rush defense (3.4 YPC).

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton has definitely beaten expectations this year. After struggling mightily in the preseason, he's gone on to establish a 4-2 record, throwing for at least 260 yards thrice in six starts.

    The Seahawks have a miserable secondary, so that could be four in seven. With Marcus Trufant out for the year, Seattle has had to rely upon Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond III.

    One potential problem for Dalton is that Cedric Benson will serve his one-game suspension. Bernard Scott will draw the start, but won't have much success against the Seahawks' top-ranked rush defense (3.07 YPC).

    RECAP: I mentioned the following trend earlier: Road favorites off a bye are an amazing 29-9 against the spread since 2002. However, that does NOT apply here - because the Bengals are actually 0-2 in that dynamic. Marvin Lewis, for whatever reason, just can't get his team up to play following a week off.

    I'm taking the Seahawks. They're really good at home, and I think this spread is a bit ridiculous. I don't get how the Bengals can be field goal favorites at Seattle.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Only a small lean on the Bengals, which is shocking.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 57% (39,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -2.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Bengals 16
    Seahawks +2 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 37.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Bengals 34, Seahawks 12




    Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)
    Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Eagles -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Eagles -4.
    Sunday, Oct. 30, 8:20 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    If you've been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you're wondering which players to start, I've got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: DeMarco Murray fell just a bit short of Adrian Peterson's NFL single-game rushing record. The good news for him is that he could reach 297 yards in this game.

    The ineptness of Philadelphia's defense has been well documented, so I don't need to delve too much into it. The team is just completely abysmal against the run because the linebackers are putrid and the safeties aren't much better. The Eagles have surrendered a triple-digit rushing total to all but one opponent they've faced this year; the lone exception being the Redskins, who fell behind early.

    The Cowboys obviously have a better quarterback than Washington, so if they fall into a hole, they can climb back out of it. However, it won't be so easy because Trent Cole is making his return to the lineup. The Eagles will have a tremendous pass rush with Cole once again playing across from Jason Babin, and the two defensive ends should be able to disrupt Dallas' offense.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: More good news for the Eagles - Jason Peters also returns from injury. They need all hands on deck because the Cowboys rank in the top 10 in terms of sacks (17). Even with Peters back, it'll be difficult for Philadelphia to keep Dallas out of the backfield.

    QB Dog Killer will be able to escape some of that pressure, and either run for first downs or launch deep passes to his talented receivers, but the good must triumph the bad if the Eagles want to prevail. In other words, QB Dog Killer can't commit too many turnovers, which has been a huge problem for him this year. This is hardly a surprise, since he's always struggled to read defenses and recognize the blitz. Rob Ryan's chaotic schemes could really confuse him.

    The Eagles have to get LeSean McCoy involved early and often. Running the ball will be difficult because Dallas ranks third against the rush (3.27 YPC), but McCoy can act as a dangerous weapon as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Philadelphia really needs to utilize him to neutralize some of Ryan's blitzes.

    RECAP: I have the Cowboys No. 12 and the Eagles No. 15 in my NFL Power Rankings, so this is a pretty even matchup. The one big advantage goes to Philadelphia, however.

    The Eagles are coming off a bye. Andy Reid has been brilliant with a week to prepare throughout his career, owning a 9-2 spread record in these situations during the regular season. I don't know if it's all the film he watches or all the cheesesteaks he devours during his week off, but whatever he does really works.

    Oh, and by the way, the Under is 9-2 in those games. That might be worth a (very small) wager considering how high the total is.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game in the NFC East.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    A small lean on the Cowboys.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 64% (67,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Andy Reid is 9-2 ATS coming off a bye.
  • Eagles are 71-51 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Normal weather.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 19
    Eagles -3 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 48.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Eagles 34, Cowboys 7






    San Diego Chargers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
    Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 44.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Chargers -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Chargers -3.
    Monday, Oct. 31, 8:30 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    It's Monday Night Football, but we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Kansas City, home of the Chiefs. Guys, what do you think about Todd Haley? There have been reports that he's an ego-maniac. Is he an ego-maniac?

    Emmitt: Mike, I do not understand why ego-maniac mean bad thing. Long ago, a couple of hour ago, or maybe a couple of year ago, there was a TV commercial on the TV that say, "Lego my Eggo waffle." That just mean that Todd Harvey like Eggo waffle or maybe Legos too, and he like Eggo so much that he a maniac about Eggo waffle.

    Reilly: Emmitt, that's EE-go; not EH-go. You know, like a person's sense of self-esteem.

    Emmitt: So when Todd Harvey cook Eggo waffle, he make steam by himselves? How can a person make steam by himselves? Mike, you do not make any sense right now!

    Herm: Not waffle! No waffles involved! No waffles here! No waffles there! No waffles anywhere! No pancakes either! No home fries! No scrambled eggs! No kielbasa! No... uhh...

    Reilly: Herm, you idiot! You used the K-word!

    Millen: Kielbasa? Did someone say kielbasa? Here's what I mean by kielbasa. A kielbasa is a stick of meat that you can either put into your mouth to eat, or in your rear end for sexual pleasure, though it's usually better if you do that with a big, muscular, dreamy, 100-percent of a USDA Man.

    Tollefson: Millen, you're a dumba**. I thought about doing your kielbasa trick with the 10 hookers I ordered last night. But since I had the women in my hotel room, I thought I should have them cook the kielbasa, since all women should do is cook, clean and pleasure me. I then ate the kielbasa. Millen, how do you expect me to perform the kielbasa trick with women? If women see uncooked food laying around, they'll want to cook it because it's in their nature.

    Millen: USDA MEN, Tolly! USDA Men! You're supposed to make love to USDA Men with kielbasas; not female hookers. Girls are stupid and icky.

    Emmitt: I am still very confuse. Is Todd Harvey a maniac made out of Eggo waffle, kielbasa, or kielbasa and Eggo waffle?

    Millen: Kielbasa and waffles? Hmm... HMM... EMMITT, MY FRIEND, YOU ARE ON TO SOMETHING!

    Herm: This is not good. Not good. All bad. Can't find good. Can only find bad. There's only bad. Only bad here. Only bad there. Only bad everywhere. No good here. No good there. No good anywhere.

    Millen: Guys, can we stop the game? I need to call Antonio Gates so he can pick up some Eggo waffles before he comes to my hotel room after the game. Antonio and I will be playing with kielbasas and waffles tonight!

    Reilly: And I just gagged. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: There's some speculation that Philip Rivers is injured. No injury could have affected the final 90 seconds of the Jets game though. The Trident bastard ran the worst 2-minute drill of all time. There was no desperation, and Rivers didn't even know that he turned the ball over on downs when he sailed his final pass out of bounds.

    The Chiefs did a great job against Rivers in their Week 3 meeting. He went 24-of-38 for 266 yards, no touchdowns and two picks. Antonio Gates being a week healthier will help, but Kansas City has a really good defense that will be able to contain San Diego's aerial attack.

    The Chargers could find some success on the ground, however. They rushed for 119 yards on 27 carries in the prior meeting.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Matt Cassel was dreadful in the first half of that Week 3 battle, picking up zero first downs. However, he picked things up after intermission and has been solid since - a sign that he's recovered from his preseason rib injury.

    The Chiefs will have some success moving the chains. Mark Sanchez was decent against San Diego's secondary, which features anemic cornerback Antoine Cason. There's been talk that Cason could be benched in favor of rookie Marcus Gilchrist, who has barely played.

    Meanwhile, Shonn Greene just ran all over the Chargers, so Jackie Battle figures to have a decent outing.

    RECAP: The Chargers have really frustrated me this year. I know they've been bad, yet they've screwed me over with bulls*** covers against the Dolphins and Broncos. Then, I forget how overrated they are, and they blow a big lead against the Jets, whom I initially picked for two units prior to switching over to the other side.

    San Diego is overrated because the team looks good on paper but continues to beat itself with dumb mistakes. That could definitely happen again in Arrowhead.

    I'm picking the Chiefs. I don't think the Chargers deserve to be field goal favorites on the road against an average opponent. But I'm sure Nick Novak will nail a 60-yard field goal with 20 seconds left to extend his team's lead from two to five.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game in the AFC West.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    Why aren't more poeple betting the Chargers?
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 70% (110,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • History: Home Team has won 20 of the last 27 meetings (Chargers have won 7 of the last 8).
  • Chiefs are 23-11 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 12-22 ATS at home since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Normal weather.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 23
    Chiefs +3 -105 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 44.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Chiefs 23, Chargers 20




    Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Dolphins at Giants, Colts at Titans, Vikings at Panthers, Saints at Rams, Cardinals at Ravens, Jaguars at Texans


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Titans -2.5, 49ers -2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Moneyline Underdog: Colts +350 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Moneyline Underdog: Jaguars +350 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Small Parlay: Ravens -12, Giants -9.5, Jaguars +9, 49ers -8.5, Patriots -3, Redskins +5 (.5 Units to win 23.7) -- Incorrect; -$50



    NFL Picks - Oct. 1


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 20


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$20)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$40)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 4, 2014): 8-5 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 4, 2014): +$20

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 35-40-2, 46.7% (-$290)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13, 55.2% (+$610)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 1-3, 25.0% (-$910)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 35-25-1, 58.3% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$470

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-3
    Bears: 1-3
    Bucs: 3-1
    49ers: 2-2
    Eagles: 2-2
    Lions: 1-3
    Falcons: 2-2
    Cardinals: 1-2
    Giants: 2-2
    Packers: 2-2
    Panthers: 0-4
    Rams: 1-2
    Redskins: 2-2
    Vikings: 3-1
    Saints: 2-2
    Seahawks: 2-1
    Bills: 1-3
    Bengals: 0-3
    Colts: 2-2
    Broncos: 2-1
    Dolphins: 4-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 1-3
    Chargers: 0-4
    Jets: 1-3
    Ravens: 0-3
    Texans: 2-2
    Chiefs: 3-1
    Patriots: 2-2
    Steelers: 2-2
    Titans: 2-2
    Raiders: 3-1
    Divisional: 8-6 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 3-4 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 9-7 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 7-4 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-2 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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