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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)

NFL Picks (2011): 39-35-5 (-$625)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Oct. 10, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games



Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-4)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 38.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Colts -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Colts -3.
Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Week 4 Recap: Ugh. I really don't know what I did to deserve all of these bad beats. My apologies to the 1,000-year-old American Indian chief whose grave I must have pissed on during a drunken summer night.

There were only a few hate mails, which I'll get to later. For now, I need to vent.

Buccaneers -10 over Colts: I'll copy-paste what I wrote in my NFL Power Rankings: How the hell did the Buccaneers not cover this game? They outgained the Colts by nearly 150 yards, yet they only won by seven.

The answer: They committed 14 penalties. They missed a field goal. They had another field goal negated because they had 12 men on the field. Arrelious Benn's long touchdown was wiped out by an illegal touching penalty. They dropped three Curtis Painter interceptions (one of which would have easily gone back for six). They also dropped a couple of first-down conversions on third down. It was something I've come to expect from a multi-unit selection of mine this year.

Steelers +4 at Texans: The Texans were choking this game away with mistakes, just as I said they would. They dominated the first half, yet were up just 10-0. They left the game wide open for the Steelers. However, Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey committed a personal foul penalty inside the 10, and Pittsburgh had to settle for a field goal as a result. Instead of drawing to a 10-3 deficit, the chip-shot field goal was blocked.

I'd like for Roger Goodell to eliminate all special teams. Through four weeks, I've yet to have a special teams touchdown go my way in a non-zero-unit pick, save for opening night in which both teams scored on returns. Seriously, how does something like that happen?

Dolphins +7 at Chargers: I wish I had some device that would tell me when a starting quarterback will get injured in the first quarter. Chad Henne went down, and while he's not that good, he's still better than Matt Moore, who is a bum.

And I love the fact that San Diego's backup kicker nailed all of his field goals. The Steelers can't get a chip shot to push, yet Nick f***ing Novak, who was out of the league a month ago, can drill a 48-yarder. Un-f***ing-believable.



Oh, and I don't want to hear about Cam Newton's backdoor cover. The Panthers outgained the Bears by 215 freaking yards. Chicago scored what looked to be a bulls*** front-door cover touchdown with Marion Barber at the very end, so it was only just that Newton would get a score back. Anyone who watched that game would agree that Carolina should have won that contest outright. Two special teams returns saved Chicago.

Overall, I went 7-9 for -$970. Once again, I'm sorry for anyone I've put into a homeless shelter. But as e-mailer Jerry F. said:

I donít care if you're off to your worst start in 12 years... I enjoy your site very much and Iím sure you will lead us back from the homeless shelter to the penthouse very shortly.

We're still living in a cardboard box - but maybe that'll change if that old American Indian chief forgives me.

I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Speaking of the Chiefs, Matt Cassel finally looks healthy off that rib injury, so he's mediocre once again instead of painfully dreadful. Todd Haley may not like that, but it'll be enough for Kansas City to achieve a few victories and play itself out of the Suck for Luck sweepstakes.

The key for the Chiefs will be establishing a lead to nullify Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Cassel took three sacks last week, so blocking them will be a problem if they're allowed to tee off on the Kansas City quarterback. The Chiefs don't have an explosive offense by any means, so I don't see the two elite pass-rushers being taken out of the game unless there are some fluky touchdowns on the visitor's part.

This is where Kansas City will really miss Jamaal Charles. LeGarrette Blount and the Bucs just tallied 165 rushing yards against the Colts. However, the Chiefs haven't been able to run the football with Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts will attempt to establish the run with Joseph Addai and Delone Carter. They weren't able to do this against the Buccaneers, who rank 14th in rush defense. They'll have slightly more success against the Chiefs, who have surrendered at least 119 rushing yards in three of their four games this year.

Indianapolis will need Addai and Carter to run well in order to take pressure off Curtis Painter. I can't believe how good Painter looked Monday night. And by "good," I mean relatively good, as in not drunk like Kerry Collins. Painter could have thrown three picks, but he also made some nice passes that his talented weapons were able to turn into big gains.

The Chiefs have a better defense than the Buccaneers, but it's not overwhelmingly superior, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Painter piece together a somewhat decent outing. It also wouldn't shock me to see those three near-picks actually go the other way. Bet against the Finger Painter at your own risk.

RECAP: I don't have a strong opinion on this game. I feel like the Chiefs are undervalued because those first two games featured a hobbled Cassel who couldn't do anything. Then again, the 0-4 Colts will be desperate for a victory.

I'm going to pick Kansas City because I like that team in the role of an underdog. I feel like the public and the oddsmakers are overreacting to that Monday night result, which should have been a much larger victory in Tampa Bay's favor.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
Two-thirds of the action is on the winless Colts.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 73% (68,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams or worse are 10-5 ATS as favorites since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 21-11 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 20-12 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Colts -2.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Chiefs 24, Colts 20
    Chiefs +1.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 38 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Chiefs 28, Colts 24




    Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-4)
    Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Vikings -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Vikings -3.
    Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.

    Vegas Recap: This was a pretty rough week for the house. Vegas lost big with the Lions, Saints, Giants, Packers and especially Patriots covering. They did cash in with the Bengals, Chiefs and Seahawks, but it was a losing weekend overall. This makes me happy, since I need to feel better about myself after a dreadful Week 4.

    I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: So, Chris Wells was limited all week with a hamstring and was listed as a game-time decision, yet he ran for 138 yards and three touchdowns? Pretty crazy. Wells was able to avoid any setback during the game and should be at full strength against the Vikings. He'll need to be, since Minnesota is ninth against the run.

    The Cardinals will need to establish Wells to keep the pressure off Kevin Kolb. Kolb's offensive line is dreadful; the 12 sacks he's taken is not indicative of how poor his blocking has been. This could be a major problem for Arizona, given that the Vikings have a really good pass rush (12 sacks).

    Minnesota was able to use bracket coverage to completely erase Mike Williams back in Week 2. It did a good job on Dwayne Bowe as well on Sunday, until Bowe broke three tackles on a 52-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Larry Fitzgerald will definitely make a couple of great plays, as he usually does, but the Cardinals will need their other receivers to step up, just as Steve Breaston did for Kansas City.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I fully expected the Giants to run all over the Cardinals because Arizona had allowed 279 rushing yards in its previous two contests. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were only able to muster 57 yards, however.

    I don't expect a repeat performance from Arizona's rush defense, since Adrian Peterson is a completely different animal. Despite playing with a washed-up quarterback and a dreadful offensive line, Peterson has averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season. I expect him to at least maintain that figure against the Cardinals, who haven't been able to stop the run on the road.

    Peterson will once again do his best to bail out McNabb, who actually looked somewhat half-decent last week for the first time all year. Arizona's secondary ranks 24th versus the pass, so maybe he can play half-decently again.

    RECAP: I really like the Vikings for several reasons:

    1. I think they're underrated. People see an 0-4 record and assume that they should be grouped with the likes of Indianapolis and St. Louis. Well, they nearly beat the 3-1 Chargers, 3-1 Buccaneers and 4-0 Lions. And as I discussed earlier, the Chiefs are better than their record indicates as well, so a loss in Kansas City wasn't the worst thing in the world.

    2. The Cardinals should be flat. They just suffered a heart-breaking defeat against the Giants at home, and now they're being asked to travel. How will they get up for an 0-4 squad?

    3. Minnesota is desperate. Laying points with an 0-4 squad may not seem like a good idea, but 0-4 teams or worse are actually 10-5 against the spread as favorites since 2002. That itself isn't reason enough to bet on the host, since the sample size is so small, but it is proof that you shouldn't worry about wagering on a winless favorite.

    LOCKED IN: The lines available for Minnesota right now are -2.5 -120 and -3 +105. I'd definitely rather have -3 +105 (available at Bodog, CRIS, 5Dimes).


    The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
    The veteran Vikings will be desperate to get out of an 0-4 hole. The Cardinals could be flat off their loss to the Giants.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    Slight lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 63% (75,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams or worse are 10-5 ATS as favorites since 2002.
  • Donovan McNabb is 27-16 ATS after a loss since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Cardinals 13
    Vikings -3 +105 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$315
    Under 45 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Vikings 34, Cardinals 10






    Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 52.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Eagles -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Eagles -1.
    Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bills.

    Some random NFL (Eagles) notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. My dad called the 49ers upset. No joke. We had the following conversation on Thursday:

    Dad: Who do you like in the Eagles game?

    Me: I don't have a strong opinion on it... I'd take the Eagles if I had to.

    Dad: Watch. The 49ers will win.

    Me: What? They're nine-point underdogs.

    Dad: Trust me.

    Me: I mean, anyone can beat anyone in the NFL, but I don't see it.

    Dad: They will win.

    Me: Why?

    Dad: Because Michael Vick is an a**hole.

    My dad called me after the 49ers pulled off the upset...

    Dad: I told you the 49ers would win!

    Me: The Eagles blew a 23-3 lead...

    Dad: Doesn't matter! Eagles are cursed!

    Me: Cursed?

    Dad: Yeah. Like the Cubs and the Curse of the Billy Goat. The Eagles have the Curse of the Killed Dogs!

    The Curse of the Killed Dogs. I like it. Maybe ESPN will do a 2-hour feature on it someday.

    2. For anyone who didn't watch this past Sunday NFL Countdown, ESPN ran a feature on a teary-eyed David Akers, who recanted his miserable performance in the playoff loss to the Packers on a day in which he found out that his young daughter would have to undergo surgery to possibly get rid of a malignant tumor. It was a pretty touching story - until Akers said that "almost everyone" was supportive.

    The feature then cut to Andy Reid, who said that everyone played well except for Akers, who cost them a victory.

    What a douche. Sure, blame the guy whose daughter might die of cancer. Who is Reid blaming for the loss to the 49ers? Orphans? The homeless? Dads whose sons continuously get arrested for dealing drugs? Yup. It was actually the last one.

    3. I used to really enjoy Tom Jackson's analysis, but he's been pissing me off lately regarding his bias toward some players. On Sunday NFL Countdown, Jackson suggested that QB Dog Killer wasn't getting some calls because the officials dislike him because he drowned/electrocuted/hanged/beat dogs. "Sometimes, I forget what Michael Vick did," Jackson said. Some points:

    First of all, Jackson must not read this Web site. Maybe it's better that he doesn't for his health. He'd probably have a coronary after seeing the "QB Dog Killer" nickname.

    Second, that actually doesn't sound too far-fetched to me. If I were officiating, I subconsciously wouldn't call personal foul penalties for some nasty hits on him. If someone actually decapitated him on one play? Meh, I'm sure it was clean.

    And third - and this is what pisses me off - Jackson doesn't go off on rants whenever Ben Roethlisberger takes an illegal hit with no infraction. I've never heard him defend Big Ben, and yet, the guy he sides with is the one who was actually convicted.

    I wonder why. My best guess? Jackson wants the Eagles to win the Super Bowl so they can finally, after all of these years, lift the Curse of the Killed Dogs.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Curse of the Killed Dogs is definitely in full effect. The Eagles are 1-3, and things only seem to be getting worse. Left tackle Jason Peters, easily the team's best lineman, is looking like he'll be out with a hamstring injury. The ineffective King Dunlap will take his place.

    With that in mind, QB Dog Killer will once again be running for his life. I was shocked to see him scramble so much against the 49ers; it seemed like he was avoiding doing so against the Falcons and Giants, but I guess he was confident that his bruised hand would hold up. As long as QB Dog Killer can stay on the field, the Eagles should be able to put up points. The Bills couldn't even stop Andy Dalton last week.

    The ground attack should also be effective, assuming Andy Reid can refrain from devouring the running portion of the playbook at halftime this week. The Bills have given up at least 100 rushing yards to each of their three opponents, including 159 to the Bengals. LeSean McCoy will have wide-open running lanes if he actually gets some carries.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: McCoy's running lanes will pale in comparison to Fred Jackson's, however. The Eagles are dead last in rush defense, as they're giving up a whopping six yards per carry this year. The 49ers, who couldn't run the ball whatsoever in the first three weeks of the season, were able to pound the rock at will last week. It was a truly pathetic showing.

    Jackson could actually reach 200 yards, which would obviously make life much easier for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Philadelphia normally has a fierce pass rush, but will be without Trent Cole because of a calf strain. The Eagles were already thin at defensive end, so Cole's injury has to be music to Fitzpatrick's ears.

    Fitzpatrick figures to have another great performance. Despite all the money the Eagles shelled out for Nnamdi Asomugha, they rank 26th against the pass (8.1 YPA). Alex Smith even compiled 291 passing yards on 33 attempts.

    RECAP: It's helpful to imagine what this spread would be like if this game were in Philly. Shift the line over six points (three to neutral, three to the other site), and the Eagles would be -9.

    Does that sound right to you? First of all, Philadelphia is tremendously overrated and is coming off two straight-up losses as 9-point favorites. Second, this spread insinuates that the Bills and 49ers are equal (both essentially +6 versus Philadelphia on a neutral field), which is something I vehemently disagree with.

    I'm not betting much on this game, but I'm definitely taking the Bills. I won't make the same mistake of underestimating the Curse of the Killed Dogs again.

    BEST LINE: It seems like the Bills are +3 -120 or -115 everywhere. They're +3 -105 at Bodog. If you like them, bet them there.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found. The Eagles are desperate for a win, but the Bills will want to prove themselves against the Dream Team.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
    Late action on the Dream Team.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 66% (126,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Eagles are 14-22 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Bills are 18-11 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -3.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Eagles 24
    Bills +3 -105 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 52.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bills 31, Eagles 24






    Oakland Raiders (2-2) at Houston Texans (3-1)
    Line: Texans by 4.5. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Texans -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Texans -5.
    Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Texans.

    I posted two new hate mails, as well as my replies to them, in the forum. Click the link to check them out.

    Last week, I showed you the following G-chat messages from someone who called himself "The Real John." I also made fun of him:



    I don't know what's more disturbing - the fact that TheRealJohn is "bedding" (a.k.a. having sexy time) with American futbol, or that he actually has "20K" to bet despite the fact that he doesn't know how to spell "betting" or "Walter" or "sure."

    As you can imagine, The Real John didn't take too kindly to this. He replied with more incoherent messages:



    Some thoughts:

    1. Emmitt Smith also went to "top univercity." It doesn't mean he can read, write, or even conjugate the noun "debacle."

    2. "20000 isnt nothing 2 me." The Real John is apparently from a different country, since he referred to the NFL as "american futbol." I think it's reasonable to guess that The Real John could be from Zimbabwe. I looked it up, and 30,000 Zimbabwe dollars equals $1 U.S. So, that would mean that The Real John lost 67 cents on one bet. No wonder "20000 isnt nothing 2 me."

    3. Good luck buying my "Websight" by winning 67-cent bets. And I can see very well on the Web, thank you.

    4. What's wrong with eating "ffoods" all the time? I love to eat "ffoods" all the time.

    5. I admit, I am "fater" than "Rex Gross Men." You know why? Because I live in America. If I lived in Zimbabwe, I wouldn't be "fater" than "Rex Gross Men" because I'd have to eat worms that crawl out of the ground. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders have really surprised me by how well they've looked offensively this year. Darren McFadden has been predictably awesome, but Jason Campbell was the one who stepped up. He has completed 65.3 percent of his passes and maintained a solid 7.7 YPA. His only blemish last week was a strange interception to Patrick Chung in the end zone, which destroyed any chance the Raiders had of upsetting the Patriots.

    Campbell faces a much more difficult challenge this week. The Texans have limited three of the four quarterbacks they've faced this year to 206 or fewer passing yards. Their pass rush (12 sacks) has really improved under Wade Phillips.

    Houston is still weak, however, versus the run. They're giving up 5.1 YPC this year despite battling a struggling Rashard Mendenhall, an even worse Mark Ingram, rookie Daniel Thomas and Joseph Addai this year. McFadden is obviously far superior compared to those four backs, and he should have a huge outing. That should be enough to take Campbell out of long-yardage situations.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: Andre Johnson is probably out, but it's not like the Texans won't be able to move the chains. The Raiders are dead last in run defense (6.2 YPC), so a completely healthy Arian Foster will go off again.

    This is just what Schaub will need to avoid Oakland's solid pass rush (11 sacks), though he has taken only two sacks in the past couple of weeks anyway.

    Still, Schaub will need Foster to rip off chunks of yardage because he'll be working with Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones as his starting receivers. Jones did step up last year when Johnson missed action, so maybe history will repeat itself.

    RECAP: This seems like a pretty evenly matched game to me. With that in mind, I'm taking the visitor. I don't think a Johnson-less Houston team is three points better than Oakland. The Raiders should be able to cover the spread as long as they're not totally flat off their home loss to New England.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    A potential Breather Alert for the Texans; after a victory over the Steelers and this contest, they have to battle the Ravens and 3-1 rival Titans. The Raiders could be flat off a loss to the Patriots.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Oakland: 56% (89,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Raiders are 12-23 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Texans are 17-30 ATS after a win (11-14 since 2007).
  • Opening Line: Texans -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Raiders 22
    Raiders +4.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Raiders 25, Texans 20






    New Orleans Saints (3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
    Line: Saints by 6.5. Total: 51.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Saints -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Saints -5.5.
    Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Saints.

    It's October, so that means it's Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month! Like ESPN and NBC with Spanish Heritage Month, WalterFootball.com is a proud supporter of Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month. My goal is to educate everyone about Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexuals. It's important that everyone learn about their culture.

    Unfortunately, I only know one Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual. His name is Mengxin Wu, who sent me spam mail in an attempt to peddle some shady products to me like "USB/KVM series:USB KVM Switch" and "Wire Tracer Line Status Test." I pretended to be Saddam Hussein's bastard son when I responded to him several weeks ago, and I actually got a response:



    I had to think of something creative to write back to Mengxin Wu or Jack, or whatever his name is. This is what I came up with:

    Lord Wu,

    Tis I, Mufasa Snow, of House Hussein, the First of His Name, King of the Iraqis and the First Men, Lord of the Middle East and Protector of the Realm, bastard son of Saddam Hussein and rightful heir to the Iraqi throne.

    I apologize for the delay. I have been meeting with my council on our impending war with Wikipedia. I'm surrounded by fools! One of my council members is fat, yet I cannot figure out if he/she is a man or a woman. The second guy runs a whore house, so you think he would be cool, yet he just twirls his mustache, laughs slyly and pines over some old northern wench! And don't get me started on that old man. He pretends that he can barely walk, yet he bangs hot, red-headed whores in his chateau. Sly bastard!

    Lord Wu, I require your wares to wage my war against Wikipedia, for they refuse to recognize me as the son of the late Lord Hussein and the rightful heir of the Iraqi throne.

    As I have written before, I would like 13 of Item No. 1, 16 of Item No. 4, 11 of Item No. 7 and 20 of Item No. 8.

    Since you've requested pictures, here they are. This is Item No. 1:



    This is Item No. 4:



    This is Item No. 7:



    This is Item No. 8:



    Provide me these wares and raise your banners with me against Wikipedia, and I will grant you lands in the Middle East after the war. Refuse, and I will have your head on a spike.

    Mufasa Snow,
    of House Hussein, the First of His Name, King of the Iraqis and the First Men, Lord of the Middle East and Protector of the Realm, bastard son of Saddam Hussein and rightful heir to the Iraqi throne


    Mengxin Wu did not reply. I know, I'm shocked too.

    Perhaps he was busy preparing for Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month? If so, I decided to try again:

    Lord Mengxin Wu,

    Tis I, Mufasa Snow, of House Hussein, the First of His Name, King of the Iraqis and the First Men, Lord of the Middle East and Protector of the Realm, bastard son of Saddam Hussein and rightful heir to the Iraqi throne.

    After speaking to my best friend, the Imp, who made some crude joke about spilling his manhood in the queen's shoes, he informed me that October is Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month.

    With that in mind, I would like to apologize for my latest e-mail in which I threatened you. It is not often that My Grace admits that I erred in my ways. But I am a merciful king who accepts all people, even Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexuals, such as yourself.

    I now only require two items. Item 4 and Item 7. I am willing to offer you full payment if you would be so kind as to combine the Blaster Master tank and Contra-S weapon together in advance, and also educate me on the customs of Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexuals. I know Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexuals like to frequent discos and rub Play-Doh on their faces each Saturday night in honor of their God, Zarlox.

    I've also heard rumors that Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexuals like to consummate their marriages by shoving kielbasa up their spouse's anus, but Lord Matt Millen told me this, and Lord Millen is known as a bit of a liar.

    I would still like to wage war on Wikiepdia for not recognizing me as Saddam Hussein's bastard son and rightful heir. Hopefully after you educate me about Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexuals, we can raise our banners and destroy Wikipedia together.

    Mufasa Snow,
    of House Hussein, the First of His Name, King of the Iraqis and the First Men, Lord of the Middle East and Protector of the Realm, bastard son of Saddam Hussein and rightful heir to the Iraqi throne


    You know, I'm really looking forward to rubbing Play-Doh on my face every Saturday night in October. All hail Lord Zarlox!

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton has been unbelievable. I've had a crazed e-mailer criticize me for giving the Panthers a B grade for taking Newton, but no one saw this coming. No one. In three non-monsoon starts, Newton has thrown for at least 370 yards each time. His completion percentage (59.5%) isn't too good - until you consider his sterling 8.5 YPA. The five interceptions are somewhat of a problem, but the nine touchdowns (five passing, four rushing) make up for it.

    Newton had no issues moving the chains against the Packers or Bears, so why would he have problems against the Saints? Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams does have a good track record against rookie quarterbacks, but Newton is no ordinary rookie.

    It was encouraging to see Carolina's rushing attack be effective last week. I'd say it was the return of Jeff Otah, but DeAngelo Williams simply looked more explosive than he did in the first three weeks. The Saints are currently 24th against the rush (4.7), so maybe Williams and Jonathan Stewart can get something going on the ground again.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I'm trying to figure out a why the Panthers can at least slow down the Saints, but I can't come up with anything. Carolina ranks 30th against the run (5.8 YPC), dead last versus aerial attacks (9.0 YPA) and in the bottom 10 in terms of getting to the quarterback (6 sacks).

    To make this quick, the Saints can only slow down themselves. As long as they're focused - and I don't see why they wouldn't be - Drew Brees should be able to light up the score like he usually does.

    RECAP: I really don't get this spread. The Saints were -7.5 at Jacksonville, yet are -6.5 at Carolina. Are the Panthers only one point better than the Jaguars? Of course not - they beat Jacksonville in Week 3 by six points (really 13 if you exclude that bogus Blaine Gabbert Hail Mary).

    Even if New Orleans establishes a big lead, Newton has proven that he can get a backdoor touchdown late in the game. He's been able to do this twice already this year.

    BEST LINE: If you like the Panthers, definitely buy the half point. You can get Carolina +7 -115 at Bodog.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    I'm surprised more people aren't on the Cam Newton bandwagon.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 75% (91,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • History: Road team has won 10 of the last 15 meetings.
  • Drew Brees is 25-17 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Cam Newton is 3-0 ATS.
  • Panthers are 27-37 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Saints -6.
  • Opening Total: 52.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Panthers 27
    Panthers +7 -115 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 51 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Saints 30, Panthers 27





    Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)
    Line: Jaguars by 2.5. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Jaguars -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Jaguars -3.
    Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.

    Video of the Week: I don't have any random college football notes, but this awesome video should suffice. Take a look at this as proof of how much college football and the BCS suck. Thanks to e-mailer Ashraf Z. for sending this over.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: As you can probably tell by the tone of my writing this week, I'm pretty pissed off. One of the many reasons I'm angry has to do with the Bengals-Bills game. Andy Dalton was great in the second half and was able to lead his team to an upset victory, but where the hell was this against the 49ers when I made Cincinnati one of my two September NFL Picks of the Month? Ugh.

    Dalton was great though, and I don't expect him to regress against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 12th versus the pass, but if you take out that monsoon game against Carolina, it would rank 22nd (7.8 YPA). The team just doesn't put much pressure on the quarterback (6 sacks), and Dalton has taken only five sacks in the past three weeks.

    It doesn't look like Cedric Benson will be suspended - way to take your time, NFL - but he'll only have mild success against a Jacksonville rush defense that ranks 10th (3.8 YPC). Even if Benson is suspended, Bernard Scott should be able to do a solid job. Cincinnati's stout ground attack is more of the blocking than the mediocre Benson himself.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Blaine Gabbert hasn't had a strong showing thus far. I'll excuse the monsoon game (though he displayed poor pocket awareness in that contest), but he was downright awful against the Saints. He constantly missed his receivers, especially in the second half, completing just 16 of his 42 pass attempts.

    The Bengals have a really good defense that ranks third against the pass. They limited a red-hot Ryan Fitzpatrick to only 199 yards on 34 attempts last week, so they shouldn't have any issues with Gabbert.

    Maurice Jones-Drew is the reason the Jaguars aren't getting blown out every week. Despite coming off a knee injury, he's been spectacular this year, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Bengals give up 3.1 YPC, however, and they were able to restrict Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller to 78 yards on 20 totes.

    RECAP: This spread says that the Bengals are just a half point better than Jacksonville. That's complete crap.

    The Jaguars could be the worst team in the NFL. Their Week 1 victory was a fluke; with a new head coach, the Titans were simply unprepared to play that game after a shortened offseason. The struggling Jets slaughtered them in Week 2. The Panthers, as discussed earlier, should have won by 13 in a monsoon. And the sloppy Saints let Jacksonville hang around last Sunday.

    To make matters worse for the Jaguars, they're going to be flat following an emotional loss to the Saints. I don't see them getting up for the Bengals, who have been a covering machine as underdogs (15-6 ATS since 2009).

    LOCKED IN: Get Bengals +2.5 at 5Dimes before it goes away. Bengals +2 is also fine (CRIS).



    HEDGE BET: If you were able to get Bengals +2.5, you can secure a nice hedge bet on Bodog with Jaguars -3 +135. That juice is too good to pass up.




    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    The Jaguars threw everything at the Saints and came up short. They won't be up for the Bengals.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    No surprise that the public is backing the Bengals.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 76% (60,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Bengals are 15-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
  • Jaguars are 10-23 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Jaguars are 4-11 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: .


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Jaguars 10
    Bengals +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 37 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Bengals 30, Jaguars 20




    Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
    Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 40.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Steelers -6.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Steelers -6 (Roethlisberger) or Pick (Batch).
    Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Titans.

    Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here's the NFL.com Fantasy Draft - Part 2 of Round 2:

    Rich Eisen: Welcome back to the second half of Round 2. When we left off, Charles Davis was confused because Rashard Mendenhall wasn't on his fantasy cheat sheet.

    Charles Davis: This R.Mendenhall guy must suck because he's not on here.

    Rich Eisen: No, he's quite good. Let me take a look at your cheat sheet, Charles.

    Charles Davis: OK, but I still think that taking R.Mendenhall in the second round was a bad move because I've never heard of him.

    Rich Eisen: Here he is. He's all the way toward the bottom. Charles, this fantasy mag is from 2009.

    Charles Davis: Is that bad? It's only a couple years old.

    Rich Eisen: It's... umm... Let's just move on. Matt Millen, it's your turn. Your first-round pick was forfeited, of course, because you tried having sex with Marshall Faulk.

    Matt Millen: That's because Marshall's a stallion. He's 100-percent USDA Man. Marshall, what I wouldn't give to shove a dozen kielbasas up your...

    Rich Eisen: And with that, your second-round pick is forfeited, Millen. Mooch, your turn.

    Steve Mariucci: Oh boy, oh geez, oh boy, oh geez, oh boy, oh geez, oh boy, oh geez, oh boy, oh geez, oh boy, oh geez, oh boy, oh geez.

    Rich Eisen: What are you trying to say, Mooch?

    Steve Mariucci: Oh good golly, gee whiz, good grief. Oh boy. Oh boy. Oh boy. Oh boy. Oh boy.

    Dennis Green: I don't want to be here all f***ing day, Mooch! Make your f***ing pick!

    Steve Mariucci: Oh, golly, golly, golly, golly, gee whiz, gee whiz, hoo boy, hoo boy.

    Dennis Green: PICK NOW, MOTHER F***ER!

    Steve Mariucci: Oh, boy. Ooohhh, boy. Good golly, good golly, good golly, good golly whoa boy.

    Dennis Green: RICH, I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH F***ING MORE OF THIS, I CAN F***ING TAKE!

    Steve Mariucci: I'll take Larry Fitzgerald.

    Dennis Green: I have Larry Fitzgerald, idiot!

    Rich Eisen: OK, so Steve Mariucci gets Larry Fitzgerald. Kurt, it's your turn.

    Dennis Green: WHAT!?!?! I HAVE LARRY F***ING FITZGERALD ON MY F***ING TEAM! YOU CAN'T GIVE HIM TO MOOCH! HE'S MY ONLY F***ING PLAYER!

    Rich Eisen: Mooch, do you really want Larry Fitzgerald?

    Steve Mariucci: Oh, boy. Good grief. Oh, boy. Good grief. Oh, boy. Good grief. Oh, boy. Good grief.

    Rich Eisen: See, Dennis? He really wants Fitzgerald.

    Dennis Green: THIS IS F***ING RIDICULOUS. I F***ING DRAFTED LARRY FITZGERALD IN REAL LIFE. I F***ING DRAFTED HIM IN THIS F***ING FANTASY DRAFT. YOU CAN'T LET THAT F***ING A**HOLE HAVE HIS WAY! I'LL HAVE NO F***ING PLAYERS ON MY TEAM!

    Rich Eisen: Sorry, Dennis, that's just how the cookie crumbles. Kurt, it's your turn.

    Kurt Warner: Before I make this pick, let's pray. I'd like to thank Jesus Christ for giving me a second-round pick in this fantasy draft...

    Dennis Green: I'M GOING TO F***ING KILL SOMEONE UP IN HERE!

    Rich Eisen: Let's step away as Kurt prays. Stay tuned next week for the end of Round 2 and the beginning of Round 3.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Sportsbooks began posting spreads on this game around 2:30 Tuesday afternoon after Mike Tomlin told the media that he expects Ben Roethlisberger to play. Big Ben sprained his foot in the fourth quarter against the Texans, but he's a tough guy who should be able to suit up.

    I really don't know if I like this idea. Pittsburgh's offensive line is dreadful, and if Roethlisberger can't move around, I don't know how he's going to avoid taking at least half-a-dozen sacks. The Titans sacked Colt McCoy four times Sunday and Joe Flacco on three occasions in Week 2, so they can certainly get to the quarterback.

    Making matters worse for the Steelers is that Rashard Mendenhall may not be able to play because of a hamstring injury. The Titans have restricted their previous three opponents to fewer than 70 rushing yards each anyway.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: At long last, Chris Johnson finally rushed for 100-plus yards in a game this year. He eclipsed the century mark against the Browns, and he figures to duplicate that feat against another former AFC Central rival.

    The Steelers have been uncharacteristically horrific against the run this season. They rank just 25th, giving up 4.9 YPC. Johnson will have a huge outing, making things easier for Matt Hasselbeck, who has played extremely well thus far.

    In seasons past, I'd talk about how Pittsburgh's pass rush would suffocate Hasselbeck and force him into some turnovers. That's not the case this year. Excluding a victory over the Seahawks, the Steelers have just TWO sacks in 2011. I find that unbelievable. They're just way too old and slow.

    RECAP: I love the Titans for a few reasons:

    1. We're getting slightly more than a field goal with the better team. The Titans are a solid squad. Forget that fluke Week 1 loss for a second; since then, they've blown out two teams, including the Ravens.

    The Steelers, meanwhile, are terrible. If they weren't the "Pittsburgh Steelers," and we just watched this team play with blank jerseys for the first four weeks, the Titans would be favored in this contest. Every year, there are one or two teams that fail to cover an inflated spread each week, and the public always seems to think that they'll bounce back. Pittsburgh is one of those teams this season.

    2. The Titans are underdogs in their second consecutive road game. This is a 57-percent cover dynamic with a very large sample size. The public assumes teams can't play well in back-to-back away contests, but that's hardly the case.

    3. Roethlisberger will be under center, so the Steelers will think that they don't have to give 110 percent to win this game. And that's exactly the problem because they'll need to do that since Big Ben is hurt and won't be able to move around too much.

    UNIT CHANGE: The line dropped to +3 before I had a chance to lock it in (it was +3.5 -120 yesterday, and I didn't want to lay -120). We're not getting much value with Tennessee anymore, so I'm scaling back my wager.

    LOCKED IN: It doesn't look like this spread is going up to +3.5. Let's catch +3 at +100 (5Dimes, BetUS) while it's still available.


    The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
    Ben Roethlisberger will start, so the Steelers don't have to panic.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 51% (77,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Matt Hasselbeck is 14-21 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Steelers are 27-15 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Steelers are 13-7 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -4.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: .


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Titans 23, Steelers 20
    Titans +3 +100 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$300
    Over 40 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Steelers 38, Titans 17






    Seattle Seahawks (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1)
    Line: Giants by 10. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Giants -13.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Giants -13.
    Sunday, Oct. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Giants.

    As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now 827 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started - a number of lost entries because of the Eagles. Patriots, Eagles and Steelers. The lesson as always, don't pick against the Curse of the Killed Dogs.

    Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it's good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: It was somewhat of a miracle that Tarvaris "Poop Salad" Jackson was able to mount a second-half comeback against the Falcons. Jackson had been terrible for three-and-a-half games, but suddenly woke up after trailing 27-7.

    Quite frankly, I don't see him picking up where he left off. The Giants have a much better defense than the Falcons, and the Seahawks won't be aided by a rabid Qwest Field crowd. New York has a tremendous pass rush that will wreak havoc upon the Poop Salad.

    Justin Tuck told the media that he won't make a decision about his status until this weekend. The Giants were helpless against the run without him on Sunday, as Chris Wells piled of chunks of yardage running to the left. Even if Tuck is out though, the Giants shouldn't have too much trouble containing Marshawn Lynch, whose seasonal 3.1 YPC won't scare anyone.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning has been on fire since the second half of that Monday night affair against the Rams. There's no reason that shouldn't continue against a Seattle secondary that has surrendered at least 250 passing yards to every non-Alex Smith quarterback it has faced this year.

    The Seahawk defensive backfield sucks, but the weak pass rush deserves equal blame. Seattle has five sacks on the year, three of which came against the inept Cardinals. I don't think they'll be able to pressure Eli Manning, who went down only once at Arizona.

    Manning will have to do everything on his own though; while Seattle can't stop the pass whatsoever, it's pretty stout versus the run, ranking third in the NFL (3.1 YPC). Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will struggle like they did last week, but that didn't seem to bother Eli.

    RECAP: Large road underdogs tend to cover the spread right before the bye week, but I'm not picking the Seahawks. They're traveling to the East Coast to play an early game, which is something they've really had issues with over the years.

    SURVIVOR PICK: I'm eliminated, but the easy choice this week is the Giants over the Seahawks. That's the only obvious option.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
    Nearly three-quarters action on the host.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 79% (108,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Seahawks are 13-32 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Seahawks are 0-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.
  • Giants are 17-23 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 40 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -10.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Seahawks 3
    Giants -10 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    SURVIVOR PICK (3-1) -- WTF???
    Seahawks 36, Giants 25




    Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Buccaneers at 49ers, Jets at Patriots, Chargers at Broncos, Packers at Falcons, Bears at Lions



    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games



    NFL Picks - Sept. 30


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 20


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$20)
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    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-3
    Bears: 1-3
    Bucs: 3-1
    49ers: 2-2
    Eagles: 2-2
    Lions: 1-3
    Falcons: 2-2
    Cardinals: 1-2
    Giants: 2-2
    Packers: 2-2
    Panthers: 0-4
    Rams: 1-2
    Redskins: 2-2
    Vikings: 3-1
    Saints: 2-2
    Seahawks: 2-1
    Bills: 1-3
    Bengals: 0-3
    Colts: 2-2
    Broncos: 2-1
    Dolphins: 4-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 1-3
    Chargers: 0-4
    Jets: 1-3
    Ravens: 0-3
    Texans: 2-2
    Chiefs: 3-1
    Patriots: 2-2
    Steelers: 2-2
    Titans: 2-2
    Raiders: 3-1
    Divisional: 8-6 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 3-4 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 9-7 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 7-4 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-2 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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