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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 16, 11:55 a.m. ET.
Go to Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Seattle Seahawks (8-9) at Chicago Bears (11-5)
Line: Bears by 10. Total: 43.
Walt's Projected Line:
Sunday, 1:00 ET
The Game. Edge: Bears.
1. If you're still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool
. There are FIVE entries remaining out of 1,972.
2. You can also create your own 2011 NFL Mock Draft on DraftDebacled.com, and if the write-ups are sound enough (and grammatically and factually correct), your mock could be featured in the 2011 NFL Mock Draft Database
. Our 2011 NFL Draft Contest will be available soon.
3. Jerks of the Week
for Jan. 10, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are: 1) Penn State Prohibition. 2) Graham Cocker Spanier. 3) Drunken Quotes.
4. In this week's edition of Emmitt on the Brink
, it's a recap of the 2015 wild card round of the playoffs.
It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com's GameCenter and my thoughts on them (the second from Austin R.):
1. "next monday is going to be intrusting im going to be able to wetch that game unlike this one XD. Mondays are odd days for me."
Really? Only Mondays are odd?
2. "N.E. HAS MORE OF A CORE OF PLAYERS WITH THE PLAYOFF AND SUPER BOWL EXPERIENCE. or whenever! NEW ENGLAND is the ONLY team in the AFC that can smack the PITTSBURG STEELERS in the mouth (which Ben Roethlisberger crumbles like a girl when he RAPES WOMEN.! Plus, we played a veryVERY GOOD game with a lot of YOUNG SND I MEAN YOUNG DEFENSE. Cheating STEELERS WHO WERE ON DRUGS .Pats DIDN'T WANT TO SHOW TIME WHAT A BEATEN THEY GOING TO GET FROM WHO EVER THEY PLAY. UNLESS THERE ARE WOMEN ON THE FIELD THEY probably didn't want to show them anything EXCEPT WHAT BEN IS LOOKING AT THEM"
Austin R's analysis: I couldn't stop laughing at this post for the stupidity of it. I am a Patriots fan but he gives us fans a bad image. So far from this comment I learned that Ben crumbles like a girl when he rapes women. That comment is just sad.
3. "whats sad tho is even with only 3 wins the carsd/9ers where still in the case to make it to the playoffs lol."
Unfortunately, with a 3 on your English test, you "where" not in the case to get a passing grade.
Unlike the two Saturday games, you can't look back at the previous Seattle-Chicago matchup and get an accurate feel for how this contest will play out.
When the Bears lost to the Seahawks, 23-20, they were playing stupid football. Mike Martz still had Jay Cutler taking five- and seven-step drops with his receivers running long routes. This nearly destroyed Cutler (6 sacks), which led to his four-interception performance against the Redskins the following week.
Martz fixed things after the subsequent bye. Cutler is still taking a healthy amount of sacks (22 in the past seven games), but is getting the ball out quicker. The Bears are also running the ball a lot more, though Matt Forte won't have much success on the ground against the Seahawks, who have limited four of their previous five opponents to four yards per carry or worse.
As for the passing game, it seemed like the Bears reverted to pre-bye mode in Week 17. Cutler took six sacks again, which doesn't bode well for this game; Seattle is tied for 11th with 38 sacks.
Where did this come from? A week ago, Matt Hasselbeck was headed for the glue factory and Marshawn Lynch was considered to be a waste of a fourth-round pick. Now, the Vikings are suddenly interested in Hasselbeck, while Lynch has the power of Mario's golden star. If only he had waited until the clock had a 1, 3 or 6 at the end of his run; we would have enjoyed fireworks as well.
However, don't expect to hear any Mario music when Lynch touches the ball this time. Lynch ran for only 44 yards on 17 attempts in Week 6, and the Bears are still very good against the run, ranking ninth against it.
Hasselbeck has a good game at Chicago back in Week 6, going 25-of-40 for 242 yards and a touchdown. While Cutler figures to be better this time around, I don't see why Hasselbeck would be any worse. The Bears have really struggled with big receivers all year, and Mike Williams could have another monstrous performance. Williams caught 10 balls for 123 yards at Chicago in October.
The Seahawks are my January NFL Pick of the Month. I know what you're thinking: "Seattle!?!? Really!?!?! Are you on crack!?!?!"
Crack or not, I love the Seahawks, and I have eight great reasons - one for each unit:
1. I have to credit e-mailer Nathan T. for this. He sent me an e-mail Monday, pointing out that quarterbacks starting their first playoff game are 5-19 straight up since 2003. I decided to look this up myself to see how these quarterbacks fared against the spread, breaking them down by home favorites, home dogs, road favorites and road dogs. Here's what I came up with (these stats are since 2002):
Home favorites: 1-10 ATS
Home dogs: 0-3 ATS
Road favorites: 1-2 ATS
Road dogs: 5-5 ATS
Jay Cutler is a home favorite making his first playoff start, meaning the 1-10 ATS trend applies.
2. Speaking of Cutler's spread numbers, he's only 3-8 against the line in his career as a favorite of six points or more.
3. I'd like to thank e-mailer Rob H, who sent over Chicago's home results (allowing me to do a simple copy-paste):
-6.5 v. DET (W 19-14)
+3 v. GB (W 20-17)
-6 v. SEA (L 20-23)
-3 v. WSH (L 14-17)
+1 v. MIN (W 27-13)
+3 v. PHI W (31-26)
+3 v. NE (L 7-36)
-2.5 v. NYJ (W 38-34)
This line is ridiculous. The Bears haven't been favored by more than 6.5 points all year, and now they're supposed to cover double digits? What?
4. Asking Chicago to cover 10 points is even more ludicrous when you consider all of the pressure. All Bears fans are expecting a deep playoff run from a team that hasn't been here before. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have nothing to lose - just like last week.
5. I'm calling this the Rabid Dog trend because it's a cool name: Teams coming off a straight-up win in the playoffs as underdogs of seven or more are 6-1 against the spread the following week since 2002. These teams were generally massive underdogs again, creating some sort of disrespect angle.
6. I really think Chicago's loss to Green Bay in Week 17 could have a hangover effect. The same thing happened in 2006. Lovie Smith played his starters in the season finale versus the Packers and lost. Two weeks later, they barely survived against the Seahawks as nine-point favorites.
By the way, home favorites in the playoffs coming off one loss are 6-13 against the spread; 3-9 ATS after a bye.
7. I mentioned this in the Green Bay-Philadelphia game last week: I researched how the winners of non-divisional, same-site rematches fared in the playoffs. Well, since 2002, the victors are 17-8 straight up; 4-1 if we're talking about a road winner.
(Note: I didn't mention this in the Packers-Falcons game because Green Bay outplayed Atlanta in their previous meeting.)
8. Once again, playoff teams with a week off are 10-18 against the spread since 2003 (7-13 since 2005).
The Seahawks are my January NFL Pick of the Month. This does not mean that I'd condone betting thousands upon thousands of dollars on them. This is my pick, and I'm not even going four figures, so if the Bears cover, I don't want to receive any e-mails saying, "OMGZ I LOST LIEK $$30K ON THIS GAEM F*** YOU A**HOEL!!!"
This is a football game. Anything can happen. I think the Seahawks will cover, but there's a chance that they won't. Don't risk an obscene amount of money that you can't afford to lose. Don't put your entire bankroll on Seattle. Please be smart with your hard-earned money.
I don't think this line will go up, so you might as well lock it in at +10.
The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
All of the pressure is on the Bears. The Seahawks have nothing to lose.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 55% (141,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 10-18 ATS since 2003 (7-13 since 2005).
Seahawks are 13-29 ATS on the road since 2006.
Jay Cutler is 24-42 ATS.
Jay Cutler is 10-22 ATS as a favorite.
Opening Line: Bears -9.5.
Opening Total: 40.
Weather: Cloudy, 20 degrees. Light wind.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, Bears 17
Seahawks +10 (8 Units - January NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$880
Under 43 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Bears 35, Seahawks 24
New York Jets (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-2)
Line: Patriots by 9. Total: 44.
Walt's Projected Line: Patriots -7.5.
Sunday, 4:30 ET
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Throughout the season, I've been having mock TV broadcasts of Bob Papa, Joe Theismann and Matt Millen, and Kevin Reilly, Emmitt, Herm Edwards and Bob Griese. It's the playoffs now, so it's time to do something special. So, why not combine these two teams to make one ultra, mega TV broadcast of epic fail?
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New England, the... ugh... guys, I'm depressed. My Eagles lost to the Packers. I don't know if I can live anymore. I'll let this Bob Papa idiot handle the introduction.
Bob Papa: Welcome to New York, where tonight, the New York Knicks battle the New England Patriots!
Emmitt: Papa John, the New York Knick play the sport of basketball hoop. This is a football game. The New York team is called the Jet.
Joe Theismann: And that's OK, Emmitt! Bob's just distracted by Matt Millen's fatness. I'm having a tough time looking away from his massive belly as well. We were at the restaurant earlier, and Millen ate five hundred million tacos and five hundred million chicken nuggets. I don't know where all of this food came from.
Bob Griese: This should be a good matchup between Drew Bledsoe and Vinny Testaverde.
Herm: Look at that! Look over there! Look over here! Do you see what I see!? Do you see it!? Can you see it!? He's got a gun! Reilly's got a gun! Kevin's got a gun! I don't want to get shot! I don't want to get killed! I'm outta here!
Reilly: I'm not going to shoot you, Herm. This gun is for me. I can't live in a world where the Eagles are eliminated in the first round for the second year in a row. I just want to end it all!
Matt Millen: I think you need to call a suicide hotline. And here's what I mean by call. There's a phone over there by the wall. You can walk over to it and pick it up. Once you do that, you'll hear a noise. Starting dialing by pressing 10 random numbers, and you'll call someone. But if you have 10 specific numbers, you can call someone you really want to call instead of just calling a random person. That's what I mean by call.
Emmitt: Matt Miller, you are not very helpfulness right now. Kasey know how to operate the telephone machine. What he need to learn is that sometimes a team meet its match maker in the playoff. If you think your team is gonna win every year in the doggone playoff, then you basically puttin' all your egg in one basketball.
Reilly: You're right, Emmitt. That makes me feel better. The Eagles will definitely win the Super Bowl next year!
Griese: This should be a good matchup between Drew Bledsoe and Vinny Testaverde.
Millen: The quarterbacks in this game are Mark Sanchez and Tom Brady. Two young stallions, going head to head to see which guy's kielbasa is bigger. As I always say, the bigger the kielbasa, the more of a man you are. Mark Sanchez has a big kielbasa, but Tom Brady's kielbasa is the biggest and best. I wouldn't mind taking a bite out of that kielbasa tonight in my hotel room.
Theismann: I'm sure you wouldn't mind some mustard on that kielbasa, eh Matt? That's because you're fat!
Millen: Mustard, ketchup and relish!
Reilly: Emmitt, these guys are f***ing weird.
Emmitt: Kyle, you tooked the word right out from inside my mouth.
Reilly: Yeah, let's get the hell out of here. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors! Yeah, right...
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: When the Patriots and Jets squared off in Week 13, I loved the former, picking them to cover the 3.5-point spread for four units. One of the main reasons was because I felt New York matched up poorly defensively against New England. Who would Darrelle Revis cover? Tom Brady has so many perfectly tailored weapons at his disposal, making it impossible for Rex Ryan to slow down his offense.
This obviously frustrated Ryan, who called Brady "overrated" because he's just a product of Bill Belichick's offense. More on that later.
Still, the same problem presents itself: How will Ryan handle New England's extremely versatile offense? I can imagine that Ryan locked himself in a room following that 45-3 debaclation and spent countless hours trying to figure out how to contain the Patriots. I'm just not sure that's possible.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: There are only two ways you can beat the Patriots: 1) Pray that Brady has bad luck (i.e. dropped balls bouncing into the hands of defenders, fumbles, etc.) or 2) Outscore New England in a shootout.
If the Jets can't get No. 1 to happen, they can forget about winning this game. Mark Sanchez plays well at times, but he's so erratic. You can never count on him to not sail a pass over his target's head for an interception. And don't get me started on Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. I'll be shocked if they don't combine for a couple of key drops in this contest.
New York will have some luck running the football, though it remains to be seen if the team can pound the ball 35 times like it did against the Colts. If the Patriots aren't way ahead early on, the Jets can feed the ball to Shonn Greene and the suddenly spry LaDainian Tomlinson. The two backs combined for 110 yards on just 23 carries in the previous meeting.
RECAP: This game really frustrates me. All my numbers and situational angles say the Jets will cover. Let's go through them first:
1. I brushed on this last week - teams entering the playoffs on a long winning streak usually don't cover their first postseason game as home favorites. How bad is it? They're 2-10 against the spread (2-7 off a bye) if they've won four or more in a row. If the winning streak is five-plus, they're 1-7 ATS (1-6 off a bye).
The reasoning behind this? Teams on long winning streaks are generally overvalued by the public, causing the oddsmakers to bump up the spread way too much.
That's exactly what happened here. The Jets were +3.5 at New England in Week 13. Now they're +8.5. Overreaction, much? The real spread should be +6 or so.
2. As with the Ravens and Packers, playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 7-2 against the spread in Round 2 since 2005.
3. For the third time, playoff teams with a week off are 10-18 against the spread since 2003 (7-13 since 2005).
4. As mentioned above, Ryan must have worked tirelessly to come up with a solution for the New England offense. There's no way this is going to be another 45-3 blowout. I think this game will be decided by one score.
So, why am I frustrated? Because while Ryan is a genius, he's also a major dumb a**. As mentioned, Ryan called Tom Brady "overrated."
This may have been the dumbest coaching move since Marty Mornhinweg kicked off in overtime (I hope some NFL team hires him for comedic value). One of the many reasons Brady is one of the best quarterbacks of all time is because he's played with a giant chip on his shoulder throughout his entire career. I forget who said it, but someone on ESPN recently noted that Brady still asks media members, "Can you believe I was the 199th pick in the draft?"
No one holds a grudge in the NFL like Brady. And if there was any chance Brady was going to take the Jets lightly in the wake of that 45-3 thrashing, forget about it. Brady will be out for blood. Rex Ryan's greasy blood.
With a gun to my head, I'd still take the Jets to cover. But there's no way I'm betting against an angry Brady.
The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
Why did Rex Ryan call Tom Brady overrated? That's like poking a caged animal.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Three-quarters action on the Patriots.
Percentage of money on New England: 71% (162,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Jets.
History: Patriots have won 13 of the last 16 meetings.
History: Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 10-18 ATS since 2003 (7-13 since 2005).
Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 7-2 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.
Jets are 12-7 ATS on the road since 2009.
Jets are 9-5 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
Patriots are 33-19 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
Patriots are 20-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.
Tom Brady is 122-38 as a starter (94-62 ATS).
Tom Brady is 14-4 in the playoffs (8-10 ATS).
Opening Line: Patriots -9.
Opening Total: 45.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 25 degrees. Light wind.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Jets 31
Jets +9 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Jets 28, Patriots 21
Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Ravens at Steelers, Packers at Falcons
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Moneyline Underdog: Seahawks +350 (1 Unit)
Teaser: Packers +7.5, Ravens +9 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Fantasy Football Rankings - July 1
2016 NBA Mock Draft - June 29
2016 NFL Mock Draft - June 16
2016 NBA Mock Draft - May 7
2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 30
NFL Picks - Feb. 1
NFL Free Agents
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2014): -$65
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-41, 55.0% (+$1,500)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 12-17-1, 41.4% (-$1,990)
2014 Season Over-Under: 144-119-2, 54.8% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$630
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,978-117, 52.2% (+$10,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 288-251-11 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-19 (61.2%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Divisional: 36-39 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 14-19 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 29-25 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 47-41 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 35-21 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 16-13 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)