Indianapolis Colts (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (7-7) Line: Colts by 2. Total: 47. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Colts -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Colts -3.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:05 ET
The Game. Edge: Raiders.
We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It's free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts looked like the old Colts for a quarter and a half last week, didn't they? Unfortunately, that all changed when Austin Collie suffered his third concussion of the year. Indianapolis struggled to score afterward, with its two touchdowns coming on a long fluky run and an onside kick returned for six.
The Colts just aren't the same offense with Collie out of the lineup, as Peyton Manning is missing too many weapons with Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Joseph Addai all MIA.
Count Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon out as well; Nnamdi Asomugha will erase one of those two wideouts, leaving Manning with just one dependable weapon to work with. And if that's not bad enough, Manning will constantly be under siege against a defense that has 40 sacks on the year.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: I don't know how the Colts stopped Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars last week, but I'm going to blame Jones-Drew's knee and Jack Del Rio's ineptness because Indianapolis has been brutal against the run all year.
I'm pretty confident the Raiders will be able to establish Darren McFadden, who has been unstoppable of late. This will give Jason Campbell manageable down-and-distance situations, which will keep Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at bay.
RECAP: Oakland appears to have the better team overall. But as long as Peyton Manning is under center, you can't count out the Colts.
If I were to bet this game, I'd take the Indianapolis moneyline because I think the Colts will win by three. I just can't see Manning losing to the Raiders. That would be too bizarre.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No emotional edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
All the Colts need to do is win by three. Easy money, right?
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 68% (85,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Colts are 42-27 ATS on the road since 2002.
Colts are 11-4 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.
Colts are 3-11 ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 since 2003.
Peyton Manning is 31-21 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
Raiders are 5-18 ATS in their final home game since 1985.
Raiders are 18-35 ATS at home the previous 53 instances.
Opening Line: Colts -3.
Opening Total: 47.
Weather: Possible showers, 55 degrees. Light wind.
You can also create your own 2011 NFL Mock Draft on DraftDebacled.com, and if the write-ups are sound enough (and grammatically and factually correct), your mock could be featured in the 2011 NFL Mock Draft Database.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Terrell Owens is done for the year. Chad Ochocinco is limited with an ankle injury. The two guys saving Carson Palmer from being completely inept are done. Pick-six party time!
If you're wondering why Palmer didn't throw any back-breaking interceptions last week, it's because the Bengals ran the ball extremely well against the Browns. They won't have as much success this week; save for one outlier, the Chargers have restricted their previous five opponents to 59 or fewer rushing yards.
Without Cedric Benson piling up chunks of yardage, Palmer will constantly be under pressure, San Diego leads the NFL in sacks with 44.
SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Bengals have tons of injuries on defense, particularly in their secondary. As a mere rookie, Colt McCoy couldn't fully exploit that last week. Philip Rivers definitely will.
The Chargers will also have Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert picking up significant yardage. The Bengals limited Peyton Hillis and the Browns to 59 rushing yards, but Cleveland still gained more than four yards per carry in the process - and Cincinnati defensive tackle Domata Peko even admitted that the team sold out against the run on most downs. The Bengals will not be able to do that against San Diego for obvious reasons.
RECAP: I have no situational angles to support this selection, but I think this game will be a blowout. The Chargers are on fire, and the Bengals have just lost way too many key players to injury.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No emotional edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Bet you can't guess where the money is going.
Percentage of money on San Diego: 82% (92,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
Philip Rivers is 18-10 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (6-2 ATS as an underdog).
Bengals are 10-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
Opening Line: Chargers -7.
Opening Total: 44.5.
Weather: Possible snow, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.
Houston Texans (5-9) at Denver Broncos (3-11) Line: Texans by 3. Total: 49. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Texans -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Texans -1.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:05 ET
The Game. Edge: Texans.
Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 20, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week is the Twelve Jerks of Christmas!
Also, in this week's edition of Emmitt on the Brink, the Eagles attempt to beat the Patriots with numerous convicts, including a receiver who leads the league in Pro Bowl voting.
DENVER OFFENSE: I was very impressed with Tim Tebow in his NFL debut. You can read about it fully in my Week 15 NFL Recaps, but Tebow made a number of great throws and showed his trademark tremendous leadership.
Tebow will parlay his initial success into another great game this Sunday. The Texans are an abomination defensively. They're completely helpless against the pass and struggled to stop Chris Johnson last week. The players are even getting into fights with each other. They're a mess.
Unfortunately for the Broncos, Knowshon Moreno could be out. Moreno cracked his ribs and is listed as questionable. His backup, Lance Ball dropped a perfectly thrown 24-yard touchdown pass at Oakland.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: Of the two stud running backs in this game, Arian Foster is more likely to play. Foster left Sunday's contest at Tennessee with a hip injury, but all indications are that he'll suit up.
Foster's fantasy owners better pray that their stud back is active; he has a dream matchup against the Broncos, who have surrendered an average of 166 yards per game in the past three weeks.
Denver also has major holes in its secondary, so Matt Schaub probably wouldn't even need Foster in the lineup to put together a great performance. But it certainly won't hurt to have the NFL's leading rusher in the backfield.
RECAP: The Texans are the better team. However, it's possible that they've quit. They showed no energy, emotion or passion at Tennessee on Sunday - aside from one play where Houston defenders Brian Cushing and Antonio Smith got into a fight with each other.
I'm taking the Broncos for two units. Aside from a possible quit factor, the Texans have no business being favored on the road given the way they're playing right now.
The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
Have the Texans quit?
The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
The public is pounding Houston.
Percentage of money on Houston: 78% (63,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Texans.
Texans are 30-15 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (4-4 ATS as favorites).
Texans are 2-4 ATS as road favorites in franchise history.
Broncos are 21-11 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 32 instances.
Seattle Seahawks (6-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) Line: Buccaneers by 6. Total: 44. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Buccaneers -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Buccaneers -7.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:15 ET
The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
When I was doing my Christmas shopping and I went into Barnes & Noble - go to Jerks of the Week to read about it - a book caught my eye before I suffered Fat Wrapper's wrath. It was this: The Lost Encyclopedia.
If no one in my family gives this to me for Christmas, I'm spending all my money on one. I really miss Lost, but this would help ease the pain.
Speaking of which, check out this awesome fake Lost game that e-mailer Tom K. sent to me.
If you like this Web site, you better hope that they don't make this into a real game because I'll be spending every waking hour playing it.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: Matt Hasselbeck's decline has been sad to watch. Hasselbeck was once a solid, second-tier quarterback who led his team to the Super Bowl. Now, he's probably the worst starter in the NFL with Jake Delhomme no longer under center in Cleveland. Not only is he completely inaccurate; he's making terrible decisions and committing way too many turnovers.
Tampa Bay's defense has completely fallen apart upon losing Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy, but I still don't think Hasselbeck will rebound. He's failed against miserable defenses lately, including Carolina (2 INTs) and San Francisco (4 INTs).
The only way the Seahawks can threaten to score is by running the football. They could be in luck; Tampa Bay's defense is dead last versus the rush. Mediocre Maurice Morris even looked good against them last week. Of course, this could all be moot if the Buccaneers establish an early lead.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: LeGarrette Blount has looked great and has proven difficult to tackle at times - just ask the Lions - but he could struggle in this contest. The Seahawks have improved against the run since Colin Cole has reentered the lineup; Michael Turner even had issues Sunday.
However, teams are still scoring on Seattle because of its inability to defend aerial attacks and generate any sort of pass rush. The Seahawks have just six sacks in their previous five games. Josh Freeman could have one of the better games of his young career.
RECAP: The Buccaneers are one of my top plays this week. Aside from fading the inept Hasselbeck, there are two major reasons I love Tampa.
1. The Seahawks are coming off an emotional loss to the Falcons. They came out strong in the Atlanta game, but things quickly fell apart as Hasselbeck began committing turnovers. Seattle put a lot of effort into that contest, so getting up for the Buccaneers could be an issue.
2. The Seahawks are playing an early game on the East Coast. Check out their previous forays in 1 p.m. contests in the Atlantic time zone:
At Buffalo (+2.5) - Lost, 34-10
At NY Giants (+6) - Lost, 44-6
At Tampa Bay (+11) - Lost, 20-10 (horrible backdoor cover)
At Miami (+7.5) - Lost, 21-19 (legitimate cover)
At Atlanta (-2) - Lost, 44-41
At Carolina (-7) - Lost, 13-10
At Philadelphia (+3) - Won, 28-24 (will explain this in a late afternoon Week 16 game)
At Cleveland (+1.5) - Lost, 33-30
At Pittsburgh (+5) - Lost, 21-0
I could go back further, but you get the point. The Seahawks 1-8 straight up and 3-6 against the spread in an early East Coast game.
TIME CHANGE: I'd like to thank e-mailer Michael B. for informing me that the NFL changed the Seattle-Tampa start time. The Seahawks still stink on the road, and a cross-country flight will prove to be pretty taxing. This will be a 3-unit pick.
LOCKED IN: Six is a key number, so make sure you get Tampa at -6.
The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Seahawks are coming off an emotional loss to the Falcons.
The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
No one is betting Seattle anytime soon.
Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 81% (91,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Seahawks are 9-4 ATS in their road finale since 1996.
Seahawks are 13-28 ATS on the road since 2006.
Matt Hasselbeck is 12-4 ATS off back-to-back losses.
Buccaneers are 2-12 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.
New York Giants (9-5) at Green Bay Packers (8-6) Line: Packers by 3. Total: 43. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Packers -3 (Rodgers) or Giants -3 (Flynn).
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Packers -3 (Rodgers) or Giants -1.5 (Flynn).
Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:15 ET
The Game. Edge: Giants.
It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com's GameCenter and my thoughts on them.
This week I'm going to feature comments made by Eagles4EverMike2010. Instead of trash talking, this guy uses GameCenter to meet women. Sad, but true. Just check it out:
1. "Nice to meet you s.e.x.y my name is Mike . If you dont mind me asking because I know your never suppose to ask a womens age . LOL how old you are ?"
The chick he messaged actually responded, "Oh man thats not nice. I'm a fe-couple years younger now. But I only get on here at work and I am limited to the pics Ihave on here so. I'm a faking it, oh am I trickin?? lol my bad, I am 39 now so a lil older but i always like that pic. I can change it but it takes forever. omg that was stressful. I don't look much different, at least I don't think so. I get carded everywhere I go and I know I look older than 21.
2. "Thats ok with me im 26 But u still s.e.x.y grl . And id like to be your friend and cool with you i like what i hear and see so far ??"
The next time I'm at a bar, I'm going to approach a random girl and say, "You S-E-X-Y girl, I wanna be your friend and cool with you." It's so crazy it just might work.
3. "HELLO BEAUITFUL GIRL HOW HAVE U BEEN ? NICE GAME TONIGHT . WELL HOPE ALL IS GOOD WITH YOU HOPE TO HEAR FROM YOU SOON ."
Forget eHarmony and Match.com. This is proof that you can get the most action at GameCenter.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As of this writing, Aaron Rodgers' status is unknown. I'd like to assume that he'll play, however. Rodgers made the trip to New England and looked pretty lucid when cheering for Matt Flynn on the sidelines.
Even if Rodgers returns, don't count on the Packers scoring tons of points. Green Bay's offensive line has been very shaky of late, surrendering 13 sacks in the past three weeks. No one puts pressure with the front four like the Giants, so Rodgers could be running for his life Sunday afternoon.
New York ranks fourth against the pass in terms of YPA, so even on the rare occasions that Rodgers gets time in the pocket, the Packers won't necessarily score or even move the chains.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like the Giants, Green Bay applies tons of pressure on the quarterback, with Clay Matthews currently second in the NFL in sacks. However, New York finally has its offensive line at full strength again, which is huge. Eli Manning certainly looked great against the Eagles last week before that fourth-quarter meltdown.
The Giants will also have success moving the chains via the running game; the Packers used to have a top-10 rush defense, but they've really struggled in that department lately. They've surrendered at least 75 rushing yards to all but one opponent since their Week 10 bye, and three of those teams rushed for more than four yards per carry.
With Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs due to rebound off last week's mediocre performance, Manning will have even more time in the pocket.
RECAP: If Rodgers returns to the lineup and the Packers are favored by three or more, this will be my December NFL Pick of the Month.
I love the Giants for so many reasons:
1. Let's clear one popular misconception. The Giants' collapse against the Eagles will not ruin their season; in fact, it may just be the thing that strengthens their Super Bowl chances.
Let's look at some of the most amazing comebacks in recent history, and how the losers performed the following week. Note that the victims of these comebacks are all favorites or short underdogs; I didn't want to look at large dogs because that's a different dynamic:
Colts 38, Buccaneers 35 - Tampa led 35-14 with five minutes left in regulation on a Monday night. Peyton Manning rallied his team to win in overtime. Six days later, the Buccaneers went into Washington as three-point favorites and won, 35-13.
Jets 40, Dolphins 37 - This Monday night affair was insane. The Dolphins led 30-7 early in the fourth quarter. Six days after blowing that huge lead, the Dolphins beat the Packers as 3.5-point home favorites, 28-20.
Ravens 44, Seahawks 41 - The Seahawks led the Ravens, 41-24, with eight minutes remaining in regulation back in 2003. Baltimore eventually won in overtime. The following week, Seattle beat Cleveland, 34-7, as 6.5-point home favorites.
Rams 33, Texans 27 - Houston led this one at halftime, 24-3. Ryan Fitzpatrick rallied the Rams back to win by six. The Texans didn't win the following week, but they covered as 7.5-point road dogs at Baltimore, losing 16-15.
Now, let's look at two blown leads by the Giants:
Titans 32, Giants 29 - The Giants led this matchup 26-14 midway through the fourth quarter back in 2002. The late Steve McNair rallied Tennessee to victory. A week later, New York won at Washington, 27-21, as three-point dogs.
Titans 24, Giants 21 - Four years later, Vince Young rallied the Titans back from down 21-0 in the fourth quarter. The Giants lost to the Cowboys the following Sunday, but pushed as three-point underdogs. The point here is that New York's season didn't fall apart.
Oh, but what about a walk-off punt return? That has never happened before, right?
Eagles 14, Giants 10 - Seven years ago, Brian Westbrook scored a game-winning touchdown on a punt return to beat New York at the Meadowlands. Did the Giants crumble? Nope - they went into Minnesota as 5.5-point underdogs the following week, and won, 29-17.
As you can see, the reports of the Giants' demise have been greatly exaggerated.
2. The Packers are coming off an emotional loss. They put everything they had into that New England game, and nearly pulled off a huge upset. It reminded me a lot of the Patriots-Eagles Sunday night battle back in 2007, when Philadelphia's backup quarterback, A.J. Feeley, nearly took down undefeated New England.
The Eagles lost in the final few seconds, and were completely flat against the Seahawks the following week (told you I'd explain that Seattle 28, Philadelphia 24 anomaly).
3. But Aaron Rodgers will be back. Won't that help? No. As I often mention, good teams play well with their backup quarterback. But when the starter returns to the lineup, those same teams usually play pretty poorly, especially as favorites. Just take a look at Chicago's loss to Seattle when Jay Cutler displaced Todd (Tom) Collins. Or last year, when the Steelers lost to Oakland as huge home favorites a week after battling valiantly against the Ravens with Dennis Dixon.
4. The Packers are a false favorite; teams laying points after two or more consecutive losses generally don't cover. Mike McCarthy is 2-4 against the spread in this situation.
5. Green Bay is a home favorite after having just lost two road games in a row. Teams in this dynamic are 31-49 ATS since 2002.
As you can tell, I'm smitten with the Giants this week. This will be my December NFL Pick of the Month if I like what I see once the spread is released.
LINE POSTED: Aaron Rodgers is playing and the Giants are +3. This is my December NFL Pick of the Month.
By the way, I use a 25-page guideline that I created this summer to make my picks. Contained in these pages are situational angles I use to handicap NFL (and to an extent, NBA) games. The Giants fit four situational angles. The only games this year that have fit at least four angles have been the:
Raiders +7 over the Broncos in Week 7 (Won, 59-14)
Cardinals +7 over the Vikings in Week 9 (Lost but covered, 27-24)
Panthers +7 over the Buccaneers in Week 10 (Lost, 31-16)
Patriots +4 over the Steelers in Week 10 (Won, 39-26) - November Pick of the Month
Dolphins +4.5 over the Jets in Week 14 (Won, 10-6)
Packers +14 over the Patriots in Week 15 (Lost but covered, 31-27).
This is 5-1 against the spread this year. As you can tell, I'm pretty confident with my Giants pick. Good luck to those of you who are betting on it.
LOCKED IN: I'll take the +3. I'd rather pass on the +3.5 than risk it falling to +2.5.
The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
The Packers are coming off a heart-breaking loss as a big underdog to the Patriots. Will the Giants be down? I don't think so. Back in 2003, the Buccaneers blew a big lead in a short period of time as favorites on Monday Night Football, but bounced back with a win six days later.
The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
Early action on the Giants, but it's sort of evened out.
Percentage of money on New York: 65% (93,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Giants.
Giants are 27-13 ATS on the road since 2006.
Giants are 17-13 ATS after a loss since 2005.
Packers are 15-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.
Opening Line: Packers -3.
Opening Total: 43.
Weather: Flurries, 23 degrees. Light wind.
Week 16 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Packers 17 Giants +3 (8 Units - December NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$880 Under 43 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0 Packers 45, Giants 17
Minnesota Vikings (5-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) Line: Eagles by 14. Total: 41.5. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Eagles -9 (Favre) or Eagles -14 (Webb).
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Eagles -9.5 (Favre) or Eagles -14 (Webb).
Tuesday, Dec. 28, 8:00 ET
The Game. Edge: Eagles.
More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter (These are also from the love-sick Eagles4EverMike2010):
1. "Im loving the new pic s.e.x.y very s.e.x.y (;"
If spelling out "sexy" twice didn't do it, the smiley face is sure to win this girl's heart.
2. "so wat brings u buy my profile??"
Not sure. How much are you selling your profile for?
3. "Im good im better now that you got back to me babe . But if it would be ok with you I had a question if you dont want to you dont have to but could i get to know you more and would you give me your email address or something like that ? Id like to talk in private without everyone seeing what we say ? If not I understand there are a lot of weirdos out there but im not much to worry about believe me . But Ive been good hows my s e x y momma doing ?"
There are a lot of weirdos out there - including you! By the way, there is no doubt in my mind that this person is Eric Mangini.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Brett Favre suffered a concussion on Monday night. So if Favre unceremoniously decides that he wants to play an hour prior to kickoff again, it won't be up to him; the doctors will have to clear him first.
We've seen most players wait a week to return from a concussion, so let's assume that Favre will sit this one out. That means Joe Webb will start, which could prove to be disastrous for the Vikings. Webb has incredible athleticism and a rocket arm, but he doesn't know how to play the quarterback position just yet. The Eagles will undoubtedly intercept him multiple times.
Adrian Peterson should return to the lineup, but if the Vikings are behind early, they won't have a chance to establish him.
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: To beat the Eagles, you have to outscore them in a shootout. There's just no stopping this offense. If the Giants couldn't do it, the Vikings have no chance.
If Minnesota wants to win this game, it'll have to put tons of pressure on QB Dog Killer and keep him contained in the pocket. Considering that the Vikings have one of the weaker pass rushes in the NFL (21 sacks), I don't see that happening. Weak secondary play will only make things easier for QB Dog Killer.
RECAP: Teams coming off a loss of 17-plus points on Monday Night Football are 16-35 against the spread the following week since 1999. The Vikings are reeling right now, and I don't think they stand a chance against the Eagles.
The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
The homeless Vikings are a mess.
The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
You can guess where the money's going.
Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 83% (94,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
Monday Night Misery: Teams coming off a loss of 17+ points on MNF are 16-35 ATS the following week since 1999.
Eagles are 69-45 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
Eagles are 31-22 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
New Orleans Saints (10-4) at Atlanta Falcons (12-2) Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 49. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Falcons -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Falcons -3.
Monday, Dec. 27, 8:30 ET
The Game. Edge: None.
It's Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones" and Torry Holt "Terry Holt"). Here's how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Atlanta, the city that hosts my new favorite TV show, The Walking Dead. Guys, I don't know if you've seen the The Walking Dead. It's a show about a bunch of zombies who take over the world because they're upset with everyone hating on the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm thinking about becoming a zombie myself. What say you, Bob Griese?
Reilly: See, I already have a new zombine recruit. That's two real-life zombies whose mission is to spread the awesomeness of the Philadelphia Eagles! How about you, Emmitt? Are you with us?
Emmitt: Karl, I have watched The Walkin' Death, and I have confident that the show do not have any zombie who fan of the Eagle. I do not even seened a jersey that belong to the Eagle on the show.
Reilly: But that's the whole point, Emmitt! Everyone hates my Eagles, which is why the zombies attack everyone. They're mad, just like me! RAWRRR!!!
Herm: That's not the plot! That's not the story! That's not how it goes! It goes a different way! Not that way! Not this way! Not here! Not there! Not anywhere!
Reilly: Herm, as my first act as a zombie, I will eat your arm! RAWWWRRRR!!!
Emmitt: Please, Herm do not deserved to have his arm eatening today. This remind me, or remound me because we talkin' in the past present tents, of English class at the University of Florida Gata. They ask what our interception of the book. You, Kevin, has a different interception about the TV show just like the Herm.
Reilly: Emmitt, do you realize that you just called me by my real name for the first time in two years? In honor of this, I will not Herm's arm!
Reilly: But I won't stop Griese from eating Herm's arm!
Herm: Get the hell away from me, Griese!
Reilly: Muhahaha! Herm's finally getting his just desserts! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
ATLANTA OFFENSE: I was really disappointed by New Orleans' tackling effort at Baltimore. The defense whiffed on Ray Rice and other Ravens on numerous occasions.
The Saints actually used to have a top-10 run defense. Now they're hovering around 16th. They've struggled against the rush in the past three weeks, so Michael Turner could have a pretty big game.
With Turner running well, Matt Ryan will have an easier time against Gregg Williams' defense. Of course, Ryan has already proven himself against the Saints, going 19-of-30 for 228 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 3 meeting between the two teams.
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Like the Saints, the Falcons have been a bit shaky against the run after a great early-season start. Atlanta's previous three opponents have rushed for at least 4.5 yards per carry.
Chris Ivory should be back for this contest, and New Orleans definitely could use his tough running to keep Atlanta's pass rush at bay; the Falcons have seven sacks in the past two weeks.
While the Falcons have improved a bit statistically against the pass - thanks in part to playing some crappy quarterbacks lately - you can't expect them to slow down Drew Brees. Brees is just too good and has way too many talented weapons at his disposal. Brees went 30-of-38 for 365 yards, three touchdowns and two picks in the prior matchup with Atlanta.
RECAP: I like getting Drew Brees as an underdog (29-19 ATS). Betting against home teams with five or more consecutive victories is also lucrative. And the Saints are getting points in their second-consecutive road contest, which is always nice.
But I'm picking Atlanta.
This is a huge game for the Falcons. First of all, they haven't hosted a Monday night game in the Matt Ryan era yet. And second, this is a statement game for them; this is their chance to let the league know that they are for real. There are lots of skeptics out there, but they can silence them all by beating the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
This is the first Monday night game in the Georgia Dome in the Matt Ryan era. The crowd will be going nuts.
The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
Early action on the Falcons, but it's evened out.
Percentage of money on Atlanta: 61% (117,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Saints.
History: Saints have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Saints are 49-38 ATS on the road since 2000.
Saints are 26-19 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
Week 16 NFL Picks - Early Games Panthers at Steelers, Cowboys at Cardinals, Patriots at Bills, Jets at Bears. Ravens at Browns, Titans at Chiefs, 49ers at Rams, Lions at Dolphins, Redskins at Jaguars
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 20, 2016): 0-2 (-$750)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2016): 0-1 (-$200)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2016): 0-1 (-$550)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 20, 2016): 1-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 20, 2016): -$200
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 147-127-10, 53.6% (+$955) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-140-1, 46.8% (+$95) 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$995
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,439-2,243-141, 52.1% (+$9,115) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 785-703-37 (52.8%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 329-292-18 (53.0%) Career Over-Under: 1,945-1,903-54 (50.4%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 36-22 (62.1%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.