Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (0-5) Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 41.5. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): 49ers -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): 49ers -3.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 4:05 ET
The Game. Edge: None.
Two opportunities to win money, if you're into that sort of thing:
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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Maybe Mike Singletary should threaten to bench Alex Smith more often. Once Singletary nearly pulled Smith, the former No. 1 overall pick went into Beast Mode and looked great against the Eagles.
However, we've seen this before from Smith. He had an incredible drive against the Saints on Monday night in Week 2, but really struggled the following Sunday. If you erase Philip Rivers' performance last week, the Raiders would be 12th against the pass right now, so it's not like Smith has an easy task ahead of him this week.
The 49ers really have to establish the run to keep Smith from throwing too much. This should be easy because the Raiders are dead last against the rush.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: It appears as though Jason Campbell and Michael Bush will be starting in Oakland's backfield this week. Darren McFadden is dynamic and Bruce "The Polish Point-Shaver" Gradkowski is always fun to root for, but Bush is a really talented runner and Campbell led a great comeback against the Chargers last weekend. In other words, the Raiders will be fine.
San Francisco struggled to contain LeSean McCoy on Sunday night, as well as the combination of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones two weeks ago. Bush should be able to piece together a solid performance, which will make things easier for Campbell.
However, Campbell may not need much help. San Francisco's secondary is reeling right now, having surrendered at least 250 passing yards to each of its previous four opponents, including Matt Cassel and Kevin Kolb.
RECAP: Whom did Mike Singletary sleep with to get his team favored by 6.5 points? This line makes absolutely no sense.
In case you were wondering, only three 0-5 teams in the modern era have been favored. They're 1-2 against the spread. Here's the thing though - none of those three teams were favored by more than 3.5 points. The 49ers are laying 6.5!
I know a lot of sharp bettors who are picking the 49ers and trying to out-think this ridiculous point spread. Don't fall into that trap. Check this stat out instead:
Since 2002, teams that have gone 6-10 or worse are just 19-49 against the spread when laying six or more points. Obviously, this is a difficult system to follow because it's hard to guess which teams will be 6-10 - I made this mistake by laying 6.5 with the Bengals last week - but I think we can be pretty sure that the 49ers aren't going to win at least seven games this season.
The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
This is do-or-die for the 49ers. The Raiders may not be focused coming off their first win against arch rival San Diego since 2003.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
The Raiders are a rare publicly bet underdog.
Percentage of money on Oakland: 60% (134,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
Raiders are 11-30 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
Raiders are 10-21 ATS in October since 2001.
Mike Singletary is 3-0 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite.
Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Weather: Possible showers, 63 degrees. Light wind.
New York Jets (4-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3) Line: Jets by 3.5. Total: 43. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Jets -2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Jets -3.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 4:05 ET
The Game. Edge: Jets.
Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 11, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are: 1) Catina. 2) Gus the Groundhog. 3) Brett Favre's Wrangler Commercials.
DENVER OFFENSE: Kyle Orton has been awesome this year, and seems like he has a legitimate shot to break Dan Marino's passing yards record (along with Philip Rivers). However, you really need to be two-dimensional on offense to beat defenses like the Ravens and Jets, and Denver just can't run the football right now.
There were reports last week that Knowshon Moreno would be expected back for this game. However, hamstrings take a while to heal, so even if Moreno plays, he might not be 100 percent, which would make him even less effective than he would be against the Jets' third-ranked rush defense.
Orton will have to do all the work yet again. With Darrelle Revis out, the Broncos will move the chains and take a couple of trips in the red zone. However, they've really struggled deep in enemy territory this season.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Denver's defense looked helpless against the Ravens last week. Baltimore gained 213 rushing yards on 43 carries.
If Denver couldn't contain Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, how are they going to deal with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene behind a superior offensive line?
Joe Flacco wasn't spectacular or anything on Sunday, but he did a really good job converting third downs, especially in the second half. Mark Sanchez should be able to do the same thing; he was able to move the chains early in the Vikings game despite the fact that he was betrayed by his drop-happy receivers. Another week with San Antonio Holmes can only help.
RECAP: Save for some ridiculous clock-management issues at the end of the Vikings contest, the Jets are playing very good football right now. I don't see any reason why they can't win this game; they're a much better team than the Broncos, even with Denver's homefield advantage in mind.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Everyone will bet the Jets this week.
Percentage of money on New York: 74% (155,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Jets.
Jets are 9-4 ATS on the road since 2009.
Broncos are 20-11 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 31 instances.
Dallas Cowboys (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3) Line: Vikings by 1.5. Total: 44. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Vikings -2.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Vikings -3.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 4:15 ET
The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com's GameCenter and my thoughts on them:
1. "lets see u beat pit in pit an um no better linebacker in the world is better than ray u crazy an pit has more than troy how about james harrison an woodley an the line comon man ur disrespecting there d when there better than yours haha"
Remember that Married With Children episode where Al Bundy cut out random letters in magazines and newspapers, and glued them onto a piece of paper in order to send his favorite TV star some fan mail? I'm convinced this person went on Google and copy-pasted random words into that GameCenter post.
2. "Just like Jimmy Raye, we only got 7 POINTS from our offensive, WAKE UP! We are not going in the right direction, we are stuck in TERRIBLE!"
I think your brain is stuck in TERRIBLE as well.
3. "Lion put up more yards in frst half. Oouchh!!!"
Was that "Oouchh!!!" because you just read your spelling?
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I have to wonder if Brett Favre's near comeback on Monday night was for real or just a mirage. We've seen Alex Smith fake his way into looking good twice at the end of nationally televised games. Favre was awful for more than a half and was constantly clutching at his elbow. Was the Jets' defense just tired at the end of Monday night's game?
I can't say I'm too sure, but here's something I do know - Favre's offensive line can't pass protect very well, and the Cowboys can bring tons of pressure without using exotic blitzes. Favre was sacked four times in New York, and I think Dallas could possibly exceed that number with DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff rushing the sexter. I mean passer.
What the Vikings will be able to do is establish the run with Adrian Peterson. Dallas has allowed 260 rushing yards in its last two games, and Peterson should have more running room as Randy Moss stays on the field more often to draw attention away from the defense.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Like Philip Rivers in San Diego, Tony Romo is really carrying this Cowboys squad that can't keep itself from imploding. Despite the three interceptions - two of which weren't his fault - Romo was great against the Titans.
That should carry over at Minnesota; the Vikings will be without cornerback Cedric Griffin, who tore his ACL once again. Griffin simply can't catch a break, which is a real shame.
The Vikings, who are normally stout against the run, have allowed more than four yards per carry to three of four opponents this year. Felix Jones looked great on Sunday, which is remarkable because he was very sloth-like prior to the bye. Jones should have solid outing, making things even easier for Romo.
RECAP: There are no mental, psychological or trend edges here; just two teams fighting to keep their season alive. I think the Cowboys are the better team, so I'm picking them. I would not bet this game, however.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is basically do-or-die for both teams. Both Dallas and Minnesota could be screwed at 1-4 if their divisional opponents win this weekend.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Everyone loves what they saw out of Brett Favre at the end of the Monday night game.
Percentage of money on Minnesota: 58% (134,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
Tony Romo is 25-16 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.
Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Washington Redskins (3-2) Line: Colts by 3. Total: 44. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Colts -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Colts -4.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 8:20 ET
The Game. Edge: Colts.
More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter (thanks to e-mailer Caylor J. for the second one):
1. "Not to ask the obvious, but you do know that you're supposed to eat that Ochouh-oh cereal, don't you?"
Not to ask the obvious, but why do you make crappy jokes that make no sense?
2. "OMG Ro McLein is the worl mid LB I have ever seen. Soooooo Sloooooooow. Looks like Jawalrus "
And you are the worl speller I have ever seen. Soooooo Sloooooow indeed.
3. " HEY why are this birds talking smack come on the chargers are way better then the cardinals you guys are going to the Q in san diego so what makes you think you're going to beat us u dont even have and elite QB so come on is cool we lost to the seahawaks and the chief is cool we always start slow you guys are going to take ur words back i promised the chargers are and elite team not like you guys hahahah"
This guy must have missed the day in first grade when his teacher taught the class the difference between "an" and "and." Is cool.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts offense was off last week. I don't know if it was Romeo Crennel's perfect game plan, the fact that the receivers were banged up, or both. But Indianapolis should be more efficient Sunday night.
The Redskins have allowed at least 235 passing yards to every quarterback they've faced this year. They've battled some really good ones like Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub, but Peyton Manning is even better than those guys. And I'd have to think that with an extra week, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon will be healthier.
The running game will be a slight issue. Donald Brown is actually going to practice this week, but may not be 100 percent. Joseph Addai could also play. Mike Hart may actually be the best option, but if Brown and Addai are suited up, he won't see much action. Still, we've seen the Colts succeed without a ground attack before, this isn't much of a problem.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins ran the ball really well two weeks ago at Philadelphia with Clinton Portis and Ryan Torain. They'll need to duplicate that feat to have a chance at beating the Colts. Indianapolis, as you might now, sucks against the run.
Washington must control the clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field like the Chiefs were able to do last week. Unfortunately, that game plan could easily be thrown out the window if the Colts strike quickly and establish a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. If that happens, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will tee off on Donovan McNabb.
RECAP: Everyone is asking, "What's wrong with the Colts?" ESPN's Tom Jackson even went on a 5-minute rant about how they can't fix their problems. He did the same thing two years ago, and Indianapolis responded by nine in a row.
I think the Colts are about to begin another long winning streak. As I wrote in my 2010 NFL Power Rankings - yes, I received more hate mail about it if you're wondering - I really think Indianapolis will win the next five and be 8-2 going into the Charger game.
You don't bet against Manning on Sunday or Monday night. Actually, you don't bet against Manning period when all he has to do is just win. The Colts are 10-3 against the spread on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game for both teams.
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
The public will always bet on the Colts.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 86% (142,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Colts are 19-11 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.
Colts are 40-26 ATS on the road since 2002.
Colts are 10-3 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.
Colts are 3-0 ATS on the road going into a bye since 2002.
Peyton Manning is 31-20 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) Line: Titans by 3. Total: 45. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Titans -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Titans -3.
Monday, Oct. 18, 8:30 ET
The Game. Edge: None.
It's Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones" and Torry Holt "Terry Holt"). Here's how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Jacksonville, the most horrible place on Earth. Guys, I'm haunted by this city. This is where my Eagles lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. We should have won, but the crooked officials screwed us over and poisoned Donovan McNabb's soup, which is why he threw up! I consider the Eagles 2005 Super Bowl champs. They should have also won in 2003 and 2009. If you don't think that, you're stupid.
Emmitt: Kenny, now you talkin' my languages. Sometime when I play football, I always have suspicious that the officials put poison in my soup as well too also. Especially when my team lossed in the doggone playoff.
Reilly: Emmitt, this is why you're the best analyst on TV. I don't care what that WalterFootball.com idiot says. You're more smarter than anyone on TV, including that imbecile Herm Edwards.
Herm: Poison doesn't happen! No one poisons! No poison! None! Ain't never happened! Aint' never will happen! Ain't happening now! Ain't happening tomorrow! Ain't happened yesterday! Ain't happening the day after tomorrow!
Reilly: See what I mean, Emmitt!? Herm hates the Eagles!
Emmitt: I find this very confuse. The Herm play for the Eagle a long times ago, maybe two season ago. Why he would betray his team, his God and his country beyond me. Very beyond me.
Griese: This game is either going to be a Titans blowout, a Jaguars blowout or a close game!
Reilly: Came out of your coma, eh Griese?
Griese: Poison! That stuff's not good for players!
Reilly: No s***, Griese. That's what I've been saying all along. There's a conspiracy against my Eagles! Everyone wants them to lose!
Herm: There's no conspiracy! No one's conspiring! No one's plotting! No one's scheming! No one's planning! No one's colluding! Here's why the Eagles lost! I'll tell you why the Eagles lost! I can show you! Here it is! Are you ready to hear!? Are you ready to see!? Are you ready to know!? The Eagles lost because... uhh...
Reilly: You can't even come up with a good reason! It was definitely poison, and guess what, Herm!? I'm going to poison you next! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Ah, the battle of two most schizophrenic teams in the league. David Garrard played like complete garbage in Weeks 2-3, but bounced back with two very solid outings. The Titans have surrendered 1,133 passing yards in the past three weeks, so Garrard could continue to play well.
I also like Maurice Jones-Drew to have a nice game. The Titans are small up front, which might explain why they've allowed three teams to gain more than five yards per carry. Tennessee is 13th versus the rush, but that ranking is skewed because Laurence Maroney and Correll Buckhalter combined to gain just eight yards on 17 attempts in Week 4.
The Jaguars will need Jones-Drew to run well to keep Tennessee's pass-rushers at bay. The Titans currently lead the NFL in sacks with 22.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: So, Chris Johnson isn't dead after all. Johnson ran all over the Cowboys, marking the first time he's looked dominant since Week 1 (and even in that contest he wasn't nearly the same runner we watched in 2009).
This is great timing because the Jaguars are 21st versus the run. If Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller can gain 105 rushing yards on just 18 carries, I can't even imagine what Johnson will be capable of.
Johnson's game-breaking ability will open things up for Vince Young again. Young continuously torched Dallas' secondary, and the Cowboys' defensive backfield is much better than Jacksonville's. The Jaguars are dead last versus the pass.
RECAP: I think this is a great spot for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are the laziest team in the NFL, but they get up for divisional games, especially when they are underdogs. They'll have extra motivation here because this will be the first Monday Night Football game Jacksonville will be hosting since 2007.
The Titans, meanwhile, won't be able to match the Jaguars' intensity, as they are coming off a huge upset victory in Dallas.
The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
This is the first Monday night game in Jacksonville since 2007. The fans could be going pretty nuts, and the Jaguars will be pumped up against a divisional opponent. The Titans, meanwhile, could be a little flat off a huge win in Dallas.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
Everyone just watched the Titans upset the Cowboys. No surprise that all of the money is on Tennessee.
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 81% (196,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Titans.
History: Titans have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Week 6 NFL Picks - Early Games Seahawks at Bears, Ravens at Patriots, Lions at Giants, Falcons at Eagles, Browns at Steelers, Dolphins at Packers, Chargers at Rams, Saints at Buccaneers, Chiefs at Texans
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2014): -$65
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-41, 55.0% (+$1,500) 2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 12-17-1, 41.4% (-$1,990) 2014 Season Over-Under: 144-119-2, 54.8% ($0) 2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$630
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,978-117, 52.2% (+$10,530) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 288-251-11 (53.4%) Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-19 (61.2%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.