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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2009



NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)

NFL Picks (2009): 58-33-2 (+$7,305)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Oct. 19, 4:25 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games



Houston Texans (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)
Line: Bengals by 5. Total: 46.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Bengals -5.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Bengals -7.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 5 Recap: Overall, I went just 8-6, but I was happy to hit my October NFL Pick of the Month (Denver +3 over New England). What sucks is that I could have went 9-5 and won about 19 units if Gary Kubiak didn't completely suck at play-calling at the goal line. When he called the timeout before fourth down, I actually said out loud, "Please don't run up the middle with Chris Brown." FAIL!

Oh, and if you faded all of my over-unders, congratulations.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It should be no surprise that Kubiak announced that Brown will continue to serve as his goal-line back. The Texans could be 4-1 right now if it wasn't for Kubiak's blunderous play-calling at the goal line. What a shame.

Thanks to their great defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, their shutdown cornerback Leon Hall and their bracket coverage, the Bengals are capable of putting the clamps on opposing No. 1 receivers. Derrick Mason didn't log a single reception last week. Two weeks ago, Braylon Edwards was also held reception-less. San Antonio Holmes and Greg Jennings also struggled.

That trend will continue. Cincinnati will take Andre Johnson out of the game. Fortunately for Matt Schaub, he has other weapons to work with like Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton (as a weapon out of the backfield), Kevin Walter and the venerable Chris Brown (just kidding).

The Bengals are mediocre versus the rush, but don't expect a big day out of Slaton on the ground. Houston simply cannot run the ball.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: You can see that Carson Palmer is getting more comfortable each week. He's had game-winning, fourth-quarter scoring drives in all but one contest this season, but it seems like he's cutting down on the turnovers. I know he had a pick-six at Baltimore, but that was simply a great play by Ed Reed.

Houston's defense is ranked 17th versus the pass. However, they struggled to contain a 38-year-old man coming off hip surgery last week, so Palmer should be able to put together a decent game.

Where the Texans are hurting most is their inability to stop the run. They're ranked dead last in that department. Cedric Benson, who is looking like the guy coming out of Texas in 2005, became the first back to eclipse the 100-yard rushing barrier against the Ravens since 2006. This is an obvious statement, but he won't have much resistance Sunday afternoon.

RECAP: The Bengals are obviously the better team, but I love Houston in this spot. Cincinnati is coming off an emotional victory in Baltimore and will probably be flat as a favorite over an inferior Texans squad.

Helping my argument are the Road Rules and Statfox trends (see below). Also, this line is really shady. The Bengals should be favored by seven or more. Instead, they're just -4.5 over a 2-3 team. Casual bettors are pounding Cincinnati like they know the final score of the game. I like the Texans outright.


The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Bengals just had an emotional win on the road, but now have to come back as huge favorites over an inferior team right before facing Chicago. The Texans are more desperate for a win.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
This action has balanced out after tons of money on Cincinnati.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 51% (181,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Road Rules: Gary Kubiak is 6-1 ATS on the road after a road loss.
  • Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off a road win of 1-3 points are 19-42 ATS since 2000.
  • Bengals are 5-10 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -4.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Sunny, 52 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Bengals 24
    Texans +5 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Over 46.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Texans 28, Bengals 17



    Detroit Lions (1-4) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
    Line: Packers by 14. Total: 48.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Packers -11.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Packers -11.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Vegas Recap: The sportsbooks took huge hits the first three weeks of the season. They made some money back in Week 4, and did the same this past weekend. Vegas cashed in with the Lions, Broncos, Dolphins and Redskins covering. They lost with the Vikings, Giants, Eagles and Colts beating the number, but remember, a .500 week is good for the books because they collect the juice.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: The big news here is Calvin Johnson's knee injury. Jim Schwartz said Monday he doesn't consider Megatron's knee injury to be significant. Whether that's a statement for the long term or simply this game is unknown. We should know more later in the week.

    Megatron is obviously the best player on Detroit's offense, and his presence will make things a lot easier for the Lions in terms of covering the spread, but the guy who makes everything work is Kevin Smith. Smith, who is getting 20-plus touches every game, managed to run well against Pittsburgh's vaunted rush defense.

    Green Bay has been inconsistent at stopping the run. They held Adrian Peterson to only 55 rushing yards, yet they allowed Steven Jackson and Cedric Benson to eclipse the century mark. Whether or not Smith can move the chains on the ground will depend on Megatron's availability. If he's not in the lineup, the Packers will have the luxury of playing eight men in the box.

    Smith will continue to be a threat out of the backfield regardless, though Daunte Culpepper threw to him only three times last week. Culpepper will start again and should be able to torch a 22nd-ranked Green Bay pass defense that couldn't contain Brett Favre. Culpepper will also pick up some first downs on scrambles; he really looks in shape after showing up fat and sluggish last year.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers received good news Monday when he learned Chad Clifton will be back in the lineup. Green Bay's offensive line couldn't pass protect even before Clifton's injury, but the left tackle's return can only help matters.

    Of course, pass protection may not be an issue because the Packers should be able to run the ball at will. Detroit is ranked a humiliating 31st versus the rush, giving up 5.1 yards per carry.

    With Ryan Grant going, Rodgers may actually have some time in the pocket to locate Greg Jennings downfield. Jennings has complained about not getting the ball, but it's not Rodgers' fault; Rodgers has simply been under too much pressure to connect on deep throws to Jennings. That could change temporarily, especially considering how horrible Detroit's secondary is.

    RECAP: This spread is way too big for me to lay the points. Green Bay's offensive line stinks, while their defense won't be able to keep the Lions from scoring.

    Detroit really has been more competitive lately. The team lost by eight to the Steelers and had a legitimate shot at tying the game late in the fourth quarter. A week earlier, the Lions and Bears were tied at halftime. And a week before that, Detroit knocked off the Redskins.

    The Packers will win this game, but the Lions could easily keep things close.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    Early action on the Lions, but the money has moved to Green Bay's side.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 69% (163,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Packers have won 15 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Lions are 6-4 ATS on the road since 2008.
  • Lions are 11-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.
  • Mike McCarthy is 3-0 ATS coming off a bye.
  • Opening Line: Packers -11.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 44 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Lions 23
    Lions +14 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 48 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Packers 26, Lions 0





    Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
    Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 46.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Vikings -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Vikings -6.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. The Video of the Week: Last week, I asked who that big-breasted FOX chick was (the one who always comes on before the 1 p.m. games.) Well, her name is Rebecca Grant. Click the link if you want to get "excited." Credit e-mailer Rennard C. for sending this over. Once again, I think I'm in love.

    2. I love to brag - I made 13 units on the Broncos the past two weeks. But according to e-mailer Darryl H., I shouldn't have even bet Denver against the Cowboys two weeks ago. Here's an e-mail he sent before that game (I meant to post this earlier, but forgot about it):

    You're a dumd a** and that is why your record (win/loss) sucks. Just because you don't like Dallas, how dare you make such false statements as you did while analyzing the game. It is Denver that is overrated because they haven't played anyone wort a lick yet. And Dallas is a better team on both sides of the ball. Dallas ranks #1 in rushing in the NFL and that game against the Giants was just one game and Denver's defense is now where in comparison to NY. Don't under estimate the Dallas defense because they seem to be finding their groove and are getting better week by week so they shoudn't have a problem stopping or minimizing Denver ground game and Kyle Orton? Please Tony Romo is by far a better QB and I'd take him over Orton in a heartbeat. Dallas wins 31-10

    My win/loss record sucks? What do you want me to do, hit 70 percent against the spread? I am only human, Darryl H.!

    3. I'd be remiss if I didn't note that ESPN's new crappy NFL Primetime didn't cover the Eagles-Buccaneers and Seahawks-Jaguars matchups. Chris Berman and Tom Jackson would have given us the highlights of all the games. Trey "I Get Excited For No Reason And Shout Nonsense" Wingo and Merril "Factor Back" Hoge, of course, neglected those two contests.

    I know they were both blowouts, and I did watch both games, but as a football fan, I'd like a refresher. By giving the viewers a watered-down product, ESPN is royally screwing its fans. ESPN ruined its best show, and I will continue to harp on this every single week until they fix it.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Vikings are known for their Williams Wall and their ability to stop the run, but they haven't exactly been dominant in that department this year. Minnesota is 11th versus the rush, and while that's decent, it pales in comparison to how great they were at shutting down opposing ground attacks last year.

    Ray Rice should be able to have a nice game both running and catching balls out of the backfield. The Ravens have a great offensive line that should be able to blast open some holes for him.

    Speaking of which, Joe Flacco received great news when John Harbaugh announced that there is a very good chance left tackle Jared Gaither could return to the lineup. Flacco was constantly pressured against the Bengals without his blind-side protector. Gaither should be able to neutralize Jared Allen and allow Flacco to torch Minnesota's 19th-ranked secondary.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: If you're an Adrian Peterson fantasy owner, consider yourself lucky if Peterson nets 60 yards and a touchdown. Though the Ravens just surrendered 120 yards to Cedric Benson, they should be able to shore things up and live up to their No. 3 ranking versus the rush.

    But even with Peterson stymied, that doesn't mean that the Vikings won't move the chains. The Ravens struggle to stop the pass. Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and a hobbled Tom Brady threw all over their pedestrian secondary. Brett Favre is playing really well right now and getting more comfortable with his receivers each week. He'll have a great game, though if I were a Minnesota fan, I'd still be worried about the occasional careless heave into triple coverage.

    RECAP: Despite the varying records, these teams are even. The difference is the strength of schedule the two squads have endured. But that said, a win is a win in the NFL, and the Vikings are a very hot club right now.

    The thing is, I just don't know how much this game means to Minnesota. The team is 5-0 and has a two-game road trip against the Steelers and Packers coming up. What do the Vikings care about a 3-2 non-conference foe? The Ravens, meanwhile, need to stop this two-game losing streak and will be playing for pride after giving up 100-plus rushing yards to an opponent.

    I'm taking Baltimore here, but this is not a strong play by any means.


    The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
    With a two-game road trip coming up against the Steelers and Packers, you have to wonder how much this non-conference game means to the Vikings. The Ravens will be looking to snap their two-game losing streak.


    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    After two losses, Baltimore isn't getting much of the action here.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 71% (239,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Ravens are 13-8 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 21 instances.
  • Ravens are 8-5 ATS as an underdog under John Harbaugh.
  • Ravens are 9-4 ATS on the road under John Harbaugh.
  • Ravens are 10-21 ATS after a home game since 2005.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Vikings 23
    Ravens +3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 46 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Vikings 33, Ravens 31





    New York Giants (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-0)
    Line: Saints by 3. Total: 48.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Saints -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Saints -2.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    More NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    4. Anyone else sick of this Spanish heritage month stuff ESPN shoved down our throats? If ESPN mentioned it once or twice, I would have been fine with it. But Spanish commercials? Marc Anthony singing the National Anthem? A bunch of Spanish celebrities like Anthony, J-Lo and Chad Ochocinco? A holding call voiced in Spanish? A Spanish Heritage official making shady calls in the Dolphins-Jets game?

    Please stop this, NFL and ESPN. If you're going to do this, have heritage months for every single nationality. I want a Norwegian Heritage Month. I want a Tongan Heritage Month. I want a New Zealandian Heritage Month. If I can't get any of those, quit it with the Spanish Heritage Month. It's not fair to the rest of us.

    5. Great e-mail from Blake H.: "If Mangenius traded Sanchez for scrubs and Braylon for a third-round pick, if I offer him his house for my really cool box of stale Milk Duds, do you think he will accept? Maybe I can offer him a penny and a match too. And a third-string kicker."

    Whoa, whoa, whoa, slow down, Blake. There's no need to give up a penny, a match, and your third-string kicker. Mangina would be happy with the stale Milk Duds.

    6. I hate to see it, but the Wildcat looked great on Monday night. I'm pretty sure Jon Gruden jizzed in his pants a few times.

    Here's a prediction: The Jaguars will hire Gruden and he'll draft Tim Tebow so he can run the Wildcat on every play. If this happens, half of the Jaguar fans out there will be mortgaging their house to buy season tickets. The other half will be jumping off a building.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: So much was made of Eli Manning's heel last week. The Giants didn't even announce that he would play until an hour before the game. In fact, the injury kept me from making a medium-sized play on New York. However, Eli came out, took his first snap under center, planted on that heel, and delivered a perfect 9-yard pass to Marcy Darcy Johnson.

    Eli's fine, but he faces a tough challenge this week against the Saints defense. How often do you get to say that? New Orleans has really done a great job improving its stop unit; the team is ranked eighth versus the rush and sixth against the pass.

    That said, it's pretty tough to stop the Giants. Their offensive line is so good at run blocking and pass protecting that it allows Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to burst through wide-open holes, permitting Manning to orchestrate some play-action fakes to his talented receivers. Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and now Hakeem Nicks have proven just how great they are this year.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Likewise, the Giants have an excellent defense, but will have trouble stopping the Saints.

    You can't blitz Drew Brees; like Peyton Manning, he's so good at finding the hot receiver. Thus, New York will have to get constant pressure from its defensive line. That usually works (the Giants have 14 sacks on the year), but New Orleans' offensive front is one of the league's best. Brees should have a clean pocket for most of this game.

    The Giants rank just 21st against the run, but that number is skewed because most of the yardage came in the second half of the Dallas game when Justin Tuck was out of the lineup. New York is excellent versus the rush, but even with that in mind, I could see Pierre Thomas having a decent performance; New Orleans' offensive line is just that good.

    RECAP: This is an evenly matched game that should go down to the wire. I like taking the points in situations like these.

    What helps is how good the Giants are on the road (see stats below). I know the Saints have a tremendous homefield advantage in the Superdome, but New York doesn't get rattled in hostile environments.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    Huge battle between NFC powerhouses that could decide homefield advantage. I do think the bye hurts the Saints because they were on a roll before it. The Giants, meanwhile, have been hot without a break.


    The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
    The Giants are a public team. No shocking money movement here.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 62% (211,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Giants are 24-6 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Saints are 25-38 ATS at home since 2001 (8-2 since 2008).
  • Saints are 18-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Sean Payton is 0-3 ATS coming off a bye.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Giants 34, Saints 31
    Giants +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 48 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Saints 48, Giants 27





    Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
    Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 39.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Panthers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Panthers -3.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. A few weeks ago, I criticized Houston Nutt for having a terrible game plan against South Carolina. This week, I'd like to make fun of Nutt for his crappy pre-game speech before the Ole Miss-Alabama contest. If you didn't hear/see it, here's what it sounded like:

    "It's going to be the most-watched game in the history of Mississippi!" (Nutt began clapping like a mad man at this point). "It's going to be the most-watched game in the history of the skoo! Just be yourselves out there!"

    Yes, he said "skoo;" not "school." But that's not the point. The point is that Nutt's pre-game "motivational" speech motivated no one. In fact, if I were one of the players, I would have gotten up and said, "Coach, you suck. I'm going to bed."

    2. CBS college football play-by-play guy Verne Lunquist is terrible. Chris W. sent the following e-mail:

    Verne Lundquist is either a jerk, a moron, or a senile old man! Maybe he is all three!

    He consistently butchers names, miscalls field positions and lacks any sense of judgment. I was surprised to hear Donte Stallworth had injured his knee in the Alabama-Arkansas game. This is surprising for a number of reasons. Apparently during his time under house arrest, Stallworth was able to convince the NCAA to allow him another year of eligibility. I wonder how Roger Goodell feels about the NCAA's decision.

    On several occasions Verne misled listeners as to where plays were occurring on the field. One specific incident was on a kickoff return that came out to the 37 yard line... or was it the 17? In a game of inches how important is 20 yards?

    The grossest error Verne made came at the detriment of Sophomore HB Mark Ingram. On one Ingram carry, Lundquist randomly pointed out that Mark Ingram Sr. was incarcerated. No further explanation. No praise for Jr. for persevering. Nothing. Just one random comment to fill empty air. To make matters worse, he later made light of this fact with his play-by-play commentary. Mark Ingram was given a hand-off and the Arkansas defense had him surrounded and he went down around the line of scrimmage and this was Verne's call...

    "Here's Ingram with the hand-off and... ooopp... Ingram's in jail."


    3. As I speculated, Urban Meyer doesn't care one bit about Tim Tebow. Urban is all about himself. He wants championships and Heismans on his resume. I knew Florida would force Tebow into playing at LSU. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Urban hired his own doctor who "cleared" Tebow to play.

    But that's speculation. Actual proof came when Florida was up 13-3 with 2:16 remaining in the fourth quarter. Tebow, off a concussion, ran up the middle on a designed call. Even the senile Verne Lundquist was disgusted by the play. Meyer emphatically signaled for the first down; he didn't even look to see if Tebow was OK.

    If you're up two scores with 2:16 left on the clock, why are you running the ball with a guy who is just coming off a concussion. Meyer is one selfish individual.

    If you happen to be a highly regarded high school football player reading this, know that if you go to Florida, you'll be playing for a head coach who doesn't care one bit about your health or well being.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: DeAngelo Williams and offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson have combined to murder many fantasy football teams this year. Williams hasn't topped 79 rushing yards all year, partly because he hasn't received more than 18 carries in any game. His 3.7 YPC isn't helping matters.

    However, Williams is almost destined to have a monstrous performance at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers can't stop the run to save their lives, so I'd actually be shocked if Williams and Jonathan Stewart didn't combine to reach the 200-yard rushing barrier.

    With Williams and Stewart ripping off huge gains on the ground, Jake Delhomme should have an easy time converting third-and-short situations and play-action fakes against Tampa Bay's horrific secondary. The Buccaneers got stud free safety Tanard Jackson back against the Eagles, but it clearly didn't make much of a difference because Donovan McNabb burnt them on multiple long touchdowns.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers will be able to run the ball effectively as well. Carolina is actually worse against the rush than Tampa Bay is, so Raheem Morris' foolish 2-2-1 RBBC rotation could actually work this week. Also, Josh Johnson is more than capable of picking up some first downs by scrambling out of the pocket.

    Johnson is a major upgrade over Byron Sandwich. He made some nice throws at Philadelphia and was victimized by some drops. He also showed great leadership on the sidelines.

    However, Johnson's fatal flaw is his decision-making. He tossed three interceptions against the Eagles. Two were in the red zone; the third was deep in his own territory that led to a Philadelphia touchdown. Carolina has a solid secondary that could force him into making some more bad throws.

    RECAP: Under John Fox, Carolina has historically been better on the road (excluding last year). The visiting team has also owned this series, winning six of nine.

    I don't know if the Panthers deserved to win last week (the muffed punt should have never happened because a Carolina player caused it), but in the NFL, a win is a win. That victory over the Redskins could give Carolina the momentum it needs to beat Tampa Bay and reenter the NFC wild card discussion.

    This is one of my least-favorite games this week. I don't feel strongly about laying the three with Carolina. In fact, I actually think there's a very good chance this game pushes.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The public has predictably jumped all over the Panthers.
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 82% (151,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Road Team has won 6 of the last 9 meetings (Home Team won the last 2).
  • Jake Delhomme is 29-18 ATS on the road.
  • Buccaneers are 13-6 ATS as a home underdog since 1996.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -3.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 16
    Panthers -3 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Under 39.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Panthers 28, BUccaneers 21



    Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-3)
    Line: Redskins by 6. Total: 36.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Redskins -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Redskins -6.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some baseball notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. Yes, baseball. It's the playoffs, and as Emmitt would say, "there are some unjustices on foot." As you can probably guess, I'm referring to the baseball umpire who missed the obvious foul ball in Game 2 of the Yankees-Twins series. Watching it live, I thought it was fair. When the umpire signaled it was foul, I thought that I had seen a bad angle. TBS then showed a better angle, and the ball was clearly fair. It wasn't even close.

    What was that umpire looking at? It was one of the easiest calls he could have made in his life. How do you screw up like that? If a dentist messes up and drills into your tongue, he'd probably be fired/sued, right? Well, that's what I want here. I want that umpire fired and thrown in jail for pure ineptness. Someone that inept should not be allowed to walk freely on the streets.

    2. Why are the baseball playoffs going on this late in the year? It should be no surprise that games are being canceled due to cold weather and snow. There is no reason the postseason should have started in October. If Bud Selig had a brain, he'd shorten the season and start the playoffs in September. With the NFL kicking off in September, did anyone actually care about the final month of the baseball regular season? Absolutely not. It's as if baseball went on a 1-month hiatus. Beginning the baseball playoffs in September makes too much sense for it to happen.

    3. My World Series prediction is Phillies over Yankees. Yes, I'm a homer. And yes, this was my original projection. I just forgot to post it last week. If you don't believe me, screw you. This is my Web site, and I can do whatever I please. Ha!

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: If the Redskins didn't suck enough, stud left tackle Chris Samuels is out for this contest. Samuels left in the first quarter of the Carolina game last week, and from then on, Washington had to use Chris Cooley as a blocker.

    As you can see, it hurt the team two-fold; Jason Campbell received a downgrade in pass protection and also lost a valuable target. Unless Jim Zorn can figure something out (unlikely), Campbell won't have Cooley as a downfield target again.

    Fortunately, the Redskins will be able to run the ball against the Chiefs, who rank 25th versus the rush. This will open up easy passing situations for Campbell, who won't feel much pressure from a defense that has six sacks in five games. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El could both have a big day against a secondary that allowed Miles Austin-Jones to set a franchise record.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: While the Chiefs have six sacks in five games on opposing quarterbacks, Matt Cassel has been sacked 14 times in four starts. As if Cassel wasn't already challenged with his own girly arm.

    The Redskins should be able to bump up that total. They have 10 sacks on the year, as Albert Haynesworth's ability to command double teams has opened things up for Andre Carter (4 sacks) and Brian Orakpo (2.5 sacks in his last 3 games).

    Of course, Cassel will be in long-yardage situations because the Chiefs can't run the ball. Larry Johnson couldn't even find any running room against Dallas' inept defense. The Redskins are a solid 14th versus the rush (3.9 YPC). If only Kansas City had a more talented back than Johnson... I don't know... even someone like Jamaal Charles would be a huge improvement. Yes, if the Chiefs had someone like Charles to run the ball, they'd have a better offense. Oh, wait...

    RECAP: The public action on this game is amazing. I didn't think casual bettors would ever back the Chiefs like this unless they were playing the Raiders, Rams or Browns.

    It's tough to lay 6.5 points with the Redskins because they have trouble scoring, but that's the side I'm going with. Kansas City had a really emotional game last week. They put everything they had into beating the Cowboys. They actually led for most of the contest, but ended up losing. I don't know how they can summon that energy again.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    The Chiefs put everything they had into that Cowboys game. They led for most of the contest, but came up short at the very end. I don't see how they can come back from that here.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    LOL at the public backing the Chiefs.
  • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 74% (181,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Chiefs are 17-9 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 11-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.
  • Redskins are 2-8 ATS as favorites under Jim Zorn.
  • Jason Campbell is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or more.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 44 degrees. Mild wind, 19 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Chiefs 6
    Redskins -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 36.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Chiefs 14, Redskins 6



    St. Louis Rams (0-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)
    Line: Jaguars by 9.5. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Jaguars -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Jaguars -10.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I read on NFL.com's new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

    1. "Oakland has the best fans. Giants fans are bandwagon. Where were yall Pre-Eli Manning. Exactly! Non-existent."

    Yeah, where were all the Giants fans when the team went to the Super Bowl after the 2000 season? There was no one in the stands at Giants Stadium! No one!

    2. "McDANIELS NEW THE PATRIOTS OFFENCE THATS WHY DENVER WON"

    Great point. Too bad this person doesn't "now" correct grammar or spelling. Oh, and I also loved how this guy made the "c" in McDaniels lower-case, but capitalized everything else.

    3. "You have a black coach who only has black quarterbacks on his roster and who got rid of a qualified white offensive coordinator. Do you see why you are 0-5 Tampa Bay? It is what it is."

    This person would have made another post, but he was running late for his KKK meeting.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Words can't describe how truly awful the Jaguars defense was at Seattle last week. They played the run well, but only because the Seahawks suck at rushing the ball. Matt Hasselbeck, however, looked like he never suffered a rib or back injury in his life.

    Fortunately, the Jaguars get to play the Rams this week. Marc Bulger, who will be back under center, could be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL if you exclude half of the AFC West. Bulger belongs in a glue factory because his offensive line has ruined him; he has taken so many hits over the years that he has a deer-in-the-headlights look.

    Making matters worse, Bulger has no No. 1 receiver with Laurent Robinson on IR. I know Donnie Avery had a nice statistical performance against the Vikings, but most of his production came in garbage time when Minnesota had its reserves on the field. Avery still hasn't proven that he can get open against No. 1 corners.

    The good news for Bulger is that the Jaguars don't believe in rushing the passer. In fact, they have only four sacks on the year. Bulger will actually have time in the pocket with Steven Jackson running hard against the league's 16th-ranked ground defense.

    Before you get too excited, remember that the Rams love to turn the football over. They have multiple careless errors every single week.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: To ensure an easy victory, the Jaguars need to get out to a big lead and make the Rams one-dimensional. That could definitely happen because the Rams have one of the worst secondaries in the league (8.3 YPA).

    David Garrard couldn't do anything last week without his No. 1 receiver Mike Sims-Walker. Walker-Sims will be back in the lineup after serving his game suspension.

    With Maurice Jones-Drew coming out of the backfield, the Rams won't be able to focus on shutting down Jacksonville's aerial attack. The Jaguars should be able to score rather easily in this contest.

    RECAP: The Jaguars were humiliated at Seattle last week, so you can bet that they'll be playing for pride and respect here.

    You also know that they're going to be focused with a bye week coming up. Jacksonville is 4-0 against the spread going into the bye the past four years, and don't forget that the awesome Hello, Goodbye trend applies here.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    After an embarrassing loss, you can bet the Jaguars will be focused, especially before a bye.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    Early action on the Rams, but it has evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 63% (162,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Hello, Goodbye: Favorites of 6.5 or more are 33-7 ATS going into a bye (Jack Del Rio 1-0).
  • Rams are 20-38 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Rams are 12-25 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Jack Del Rio is 4-2 ATS going into the bye (4-0 ATS since 2005).
  • Jaguars are 6-10 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -10.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Sunny, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Jaguars 34, Rams 17
    Jaguars -9.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 43 (.5 Units) -- Push; $0
    Jaguars 23, Rams 20



    Cleveland Browns (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
    Line: Steelers by 14. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Steelers -14.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Steelers -14.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

    4. "hey a wins a win 5-0 wooooowowowowowoooooooooooo we are so good we beat the patriots at home in overtime woahaahaha"

    Woooowowowowooooooooooo wohaahahahaha!!!

    5. "belicheat video rentals didnt work out this time."

    This was actually a funny post that made sense.

    6. "jeff fisher would never run the wildcard he is way 2 conservative."

    You know, I sometimes criticize coaches for being "2" conservative, but even I can't bash Jeff Fisher for not running the wildcard. The wildcard offense sucks!!!

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Two-of-17 passing. Twenty-three yards. How do you win with numbers like those? By playing the crappy, Buffalo Bills, of course.

    The Steelers are not the Bills. Running the ball with 60-year-old Jamal Lewis simply won't work this time. Pittsburgh ranks seventh versus the rush and will force Derek Anderson into obvious passing downs.

    That's not a good thing against Pittsburgh's defense. Anderson is a better quarterback than Brady Quinn because he actually takes some shots downfield, but trying to force throws into the Steelers secondary is asking for trouble - especially considering that the Browns have no proven No. 1 receiver. Oh, and I should mention that Troy Polamalu is expected to be back this week.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Willie Parker is also expected to return, but if I'm Mike Tomlin, I keep riding Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall trampled the Chargers and ran well against the Lions last week. The Browns are 30th versus the rush, so expect a big game out of him.

    With the ground attack working, Ben Roethlisberger will have plenty of time in the pocket locate his receivers downfield. In two meetings last year, the Browns sacked Roethlisberger just twice. Cleveland won't have much success getting to him until the defense can finally contain the rush and force Big Ben into third-and-long situations.

    RECAP: This looks like a routine Steelers blowout to me. Though Pittsburgh didn't cover at Detroit last week (thanks to a Daunte Culpepper backdoor touchdown), Mike Tomlin usually takes care of business against these weak opponents.

    SURVIVOR PICK: This is my Survivor Pick. The Steelers have beaten the Browns in 17 of their last 18 meetings, so I don't see how that's going to change. If you have taken Pittsburgh already, I'd also consider (in order): New England over Tennessee, Philadelphia over Oakland, Green Bay over Detroit, and Jacksonville over St. Louis.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    This is a look-ahead alert for the Steelers, who have the Vikings next week. However, Mike Tomlin usually does a great job preparing his team for these stupid games.


    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    No surprise that the public is pounding the Steelers.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 84% (195,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • History: Steelers have won 17 of the last 18 meetings.
  • Steelers are 25-10 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Steelers are 11-5 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Steelers are 7-4 ATS as favorites of 7 or more under Mike Tomlin.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 63-24 as a starter (49-37 ATS).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 20-10 ATS vs. the AFC North.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -13.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 42 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 6 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Browns 7
    Steelers -14 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 37.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Survivor Pick (5-0)
    Steelers 27, Browns 14





    Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Cardinals at Seahawks, Eagles at Raiders, Bills at Jets, Titans at Patriots, Bears at Falcons, Broncos at Chargers


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games



    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
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    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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