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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2009



NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)

NFL Picks (2009): 50-27-2 (+$6,410)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Oct. 12, 4:30 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games



Cleveland Browns (0-4) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)
Line: Bills by 6. Total: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Bills -7.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Bills -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Browns.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 4 Recap: This streak is awesome and I can only hope that it continues. I went 10-4 last week and hit my top three plays. The only large-unit selection loser was with the Rams (3 units). I loved St. Louis in that spot, but didn't make it a 4- or 5-unit play because I didn't trust the Rams. At any rate, there are two games this week I'm considering as my October NFL Pick of the Month. This is not one of them.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Going into the Buffalo-Miami game on Sunday, I pretty knew that Dick Jauron would screw up and have Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson share carries. Jackson was the league's fourth-leading rusher going into the weekend, so of course, Jauron gave Lynch more touches (13) than Jackson (12). Lynch got some yardage catching passes out of the backfield, but he was able to muster only four yards on eight carries. Jackson, meanwhile, turned nine rushes into 42 yards.

This only proves that Jauron can't make simple decisions and shouldn't be a head coach in the NFL. Jackson is arguably the most talented player on Buffalo's offense. Taking the ball out of his hands only makes things easier for the opposing defense.

That's good news for the Browns because they could use the break. Cleveland is ranked dead last versus the rush, giving up 5.5 yards per carry. Lynch could have a decent game, but won't be as dominant as Jackson was the first three weeks of the season.

The main concern for Buffalo is its offensive line. The front office failed to draft a left tackle this past April and is now paying the price. Even before all of the injuries, Trent Edwards didn't have much time in the pocket. Now, Edwards once again will have defenders in his face, even against the woefully inept Cleveland stop unit. Left tackle Demetrius Bell is expected to miss this game.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Derek Anderson definitely provided the spark the Browns needed. He threw a stupid interception into the end zone, but was otherwise very sharp, going 26-of-48 for 269 yards and a touchdown against a pretty tough Cincinnati defense. The Bills, who look like they'll be missing Donte Whitner again, will have major problems containing Braylon Edwards and Mohamed Massaquoi.

With the deep passing game working well, Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison will have plenty of room to work with. Buffalo, ranked 24th versus the rush, couldn't stop Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last week, and could have similar problems here.

RECAP: This is a tough game to call. The Browns seem like the better team with Derek Anderson, while the Bills have to deal with tons of injuries and that ugly post-Dolphins trend I have listed below.

On the other hand, Cleveland put tons of energy into that Cincinnati game, but came up short in overtime. I don't think the Browns will be able to muster that same intensity here.

My advice is to not bet this game. With a gun to my head, I'd lay the points only because of the psychological factor.


The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Browns put a lot of energy into the Bengals game. They held a 20-14 lead, but blew it and eventually lost in overtime. This might be an emotional low for them against a non-divisional opponent.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
The public is all over the Bills.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 65% (127,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 20-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Bills are 16-9 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002. ???
  • Bills are 14-5 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Bills are 3-20 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.
  • Opening Line: Bills -6.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Browns 14
    Bills -6 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Under 41 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Browns 6, Bills 3



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Detroit Lions (1-3)
    Line: Steelers by 11. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Steelers -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Steelers -7.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Vegas Recap: The sportsbooks took huge hits the first three weeks of the season, but they actually won some money this past weekend. They cashed in with the Browns, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers covering, but lost money with the Colts, Giants, 49ers and Vikings coming through. That's only 4-4, but remember that Vegas gets the juice, and also makes tons of money off parlays and teasers.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers finally got their running game going on Sunday night, which is terrible news for the rest of the league. The Chargers made Rashard Mendenhall look like the second coming of Emmitt Smith. I know they were playing without their stud nose tackle Jamal Williams, but it's not like the Lions are any better versus the rush. In fact, they're worse. San Diego is ranked 23rd in that department, while Detroit is 28th.

    With Mendenhall and potentially Willie Parker going, Ben Roethlisberger will have all the time he needs to shred Detroit's 23rd-ranked secondary. Big Ben will pick up right where he left off against the Chargers (26-of-33, 333 yards, 2 TDs), and it's unlikely that he'll be pressured much.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford is listed as "day to day," but it looks like he'll be good to go against the Steelers.

    Perhaps that's not good news for Lions fans. If I root for Detroit, I'd want Stafford to sit out so he doesn't get eaten alive by Pittsburgh's pass rushers. Detroit's offensive line surrendered five sacks to Chicago, and it could be even uglier here.

    The Lions need to counter with short passes and screens, particularly to Kevin Smith. Smith was hurt last week, but still managed to touch the ball 23 times. That number will have to move into the high 20s if Detroit wants to consistently move the chains and keep Roethlisberger off the field.

    Unfortunately for the Lions, the Steelers will shut down the run, so Stafford eventually will have to convert a third-and-long situation. And that's exactly why he should probably be on the bench this week. I'm just looking out for his safety.

    RECAP: With a big win against the Chargers, is this a potential flat spot for the Steelers? Don't count on it. Mike Tomlin always has his team prepared to kick the crap out of lesser foes. If you look at the trend section below, you'll see that under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has thrived when favored by a large amount. Given Tomlin's personality, intensity and preparation habits, that shouldn't be surprising.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    Wow, I can't believe that the public is backing the Steelers.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 91% (149,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Steelers are 25-9 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Steelers are 7-3 ATS as favorites of 7 or more under Mike Tomlin.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 62-24 as a starter (49-36 ATS).
  • Lions are 10-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.
  • Lions are 10-17 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -11.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Lions 7
    Steelers -11 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 44 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Steelers 28, Lions 20





    Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-4)
    Line: Cowboys by 7.5. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Cowboys -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Cowboys -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. Who is that FOX chick (as El Guapo called her) who comes on before the 1 p.m. games? She has brown hair and huge breasts. I think she calls herself Rebecca Brand or Rebecca Grant or Rebecca Brant or Rebecca Grand, or Rebecca Something. I honestly have no idea what she says each week because I get distracted by her big jugs. I think I'm in love.

    2. Funny moment in the Jaguars-Titans game: There was a review of a Mike Sims-Walker touchdown. The official, some Spanish guy, announced to the crowd, "The receiver possesses the ball. When he has the ball, he has three feet down in the end zone." Three feet, eh? I don't know what sort of weird genetics you guys are into from your former country, pal, but us Americans have only two feet.

    3. Great comment by Puppy Puncher in his NFL Week 4 Analysis: "How come I'm the only person that's saying, 'IF THE BRONCOS DIDN'T TRADE JAY CUTLER, THEY COULD BE SUPER BOWL FAVORITES!'" It's true. Kyle Orton is doing a great job managing the game, but like Chad Pennington, he throws like a girl. And like Chad Pennington, he'll become a liability for his team come playoff time.

    4. Steve Lourie posted this on my Facebook wall: "I'm pretty sure the worst person in the world to write a book entitled 'how to perform and behave in your contract year' would be Braylon Edwards. 10 catches 130 yards and 1 accusation of assault." Great point. If Edwards can't perform or stay out of legal trouble in his contract year, who's going to sign him for big money? Actually, who's even going to sign him? If I were running an NFL team, the most I'd offer Edwards at this point is 40 bucks, a couple of bus tokens and a pack of Stride Forever Fruit gum sitting on my desk.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo is struggling for a variety of reasons. Terrell Owens is gone and Roy Williams is a clown, so he has no No. 1 receiver. His left tackle Flozell Adams spends too much time karate-kicking opposing defenders, getting called for penalties and collecting fines. And against the Broncos, the running game wasn't working, as Marion Barber and Tashard Choice mustered just 74 yards on 25 carries.

    The latter, at least, will change this week. The Chiefs are terrible in every facet of the game, including their inability to stop the run. Marion Barber and Tashard Choice won't be stopped, setting up easy short-yardage opportunities for Romo. The Chiefs, who have five sacks on the year, likely won't touch Romo in this contest.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The reason Dallas is an overrated team is because its defense stinks. The Cowboys can't stop the run (25th) and they struggle to get to the quarterback (six sacks).

    Fortunately, the Cowboys get to play the Chiefs this week, who can't do anything offensively. Larry Johnson is averaging a whopping 2.6 yards per carry because he's over-the-hill and his offensive line can't open up any running lanes. Jamaal Charles, the superior player, isn't getting any touches because Todd Haley doesn't understand how to be a head coach in this league. It looks like for once, Dallas will be able to shut down the rush.

    Meanwhile, Matt Cassel is even worse than I thought he would be going into this season. Cassel has a Ken Dorsey-like YPA of 5.1 and is taking too many sacks (10 in 3 games). DeMarcus Ware doesn't have any sacks this year, but I'll be shocked if that doesn't change after this week.

    RECAP: Coming off a loss and going into a bye, the Cowboys will be extremely focused here. The Chiefs are terrible and simply can't compete with most of the teams in this league.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
    The Cowboys have to be focused coming off a loss and going into a bye.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 53% (158,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Hello, Goodbye: Favorites of 6.5 or more are 33-6 ATS going into a bye (Wade Phillips 1-0).
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 20-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Cowboys are 10-5 ATS after a loss since 2006.
  • Tony Romo is 20-10 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.
  • Tony Romo is 11-7 ATS on the road.
  • Chiefs are 16-9 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 6-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006. ???
  • Chiefs are 4-13 ATS at home since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -9.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Cowboys 30, Chiefs 10
    Cowboys -7.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 43.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Cowboys 26, Chiefs 20





    Minnesota Vikings (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-4)
    Line: Vikings by 10.5. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Vikings -9.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Vikings -10.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    It pisses me off that as of Tuesday afternoon, there is no line on this game. My only guess is because of Marc Bulger's status. Don't the oddsmakers realize that Bulger sucks? Vegas is so fickle with posting lines. I can understand one missing for Seattle/Jacksonville because of Matt Hasselbeck, but there's no reason that the sportsbooks should delay posting a spread on this or the Eagles-Buccaneers game. Is there that much of a difference between Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb in the public's eye?

    Getting back to the Rams though, I'm now convinced that having a mannequin under center would produce better results for them. Seriously, they lost 35-0 to the 49ers. Unlike Kyle Boller, a mannequin wouldn't have turned it over, meaning that San Francisco would have won 14-0 instead of 35-0. But knowing Vegas, they'd hold off on posting a line if the mannequin's limbs accidentally fell off. And at that point, I'd be typing out "No Line (Mannequin)." and complaining that the sportsbooks are being anal about the mannequin being questionable.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Forget the Broncos being 4-0. Don't pay attention to the Titans being 0-4. The most surprising thing about this season is St. Louis' run defense. The Rams typically rank in the bottom five of that category, but are somehow 15th versus the rush this year. They're only giving up four yards per carry. Amazing!

    But with that in mind, the Rams haven't exactly faced any top-tier backs. Julius Jones stinks. Clinton Portis is hurt. Glen Coffee is an unknown at this point. The best runner they've gone up against was Ryan Grant, and his offensive line is too injured and inept right now.

    Adrian Peterson will trample St. Louis and help all of his fantasy owners notch another victory. With Peterson going, Brett Favre will be asked to manage the game once again, which he has done very well this year. And even when Favre has to throw, he shouldn't have any problems versus the Rams' 29th-ranked secondary.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: If I'm the Rams, I'm holding out Steven Jackson this year. There's no reason to give him 330 carries and about 50 catches if they're going to lose 14 or more games. I'd rather preserve him for next year when they'll be more competitive.

    Jackson's doing all he can, but with a horrible offensive line and poor quarterbacking, it's a lost cause. Jackson won't have much room with the Williams Wall clogging the line of scrimmage, so the Rams will constantly be in third-and-long situations.

    Marc Bulger, listed as "probably questionable" according to Steve Spagnuolo (whatever that means), will be abused by Jared Allen and the rest of Minnesota's defensive front. With Laurent Robinson on IR, the Rams have no receivers who can separate from opposing corners. Bulger (or Kyle Boller) will have to stand in the pocket for a while to find an open receiver, which isn't what you want to do against the Vikings. Like the 49ers a week ago, Minnesota's defense could easily score three touchdowns on its own.

    RECAP: I'm going to assume that the Vikings will be laying double digits on the road. I'd never recommend betting on a team in that situation, but then again, I can't suggest that taking the pathetic Rams is a good idea either.

    Minnesota has the Ravens, Steelers and Packers after this game. There's a chance they could look past St. Louis, but the Vikings a veteran team. They have a great defense and rushing attack (which travel well) and an experienced quarterback, so if I had to bet (and I wouldn't bet much), I'd say that Minnesota shows up to this contest.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Vikings just won an emotional game. After this easy contest, they have the Ravens, Steelers and Packers. This is an obvious BREATHER-ALERT for Minnesota. However, the Vikings are a veteran team that could be prepared for this game.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    This line seems low. The public is all over the Vikings.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 95% (211,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 20-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Brad Childress is 1-4 ATS after Monday Night Football.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -10.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Vikings 31, Rams 3
    Vikings -10 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Under 41 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Vikings 38, Rams 10





    Oakland Raiders (1-3) at New York Giants (4-0)
    Line: Giants by 15.5. Total: 38.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Giants -15.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Giants -16.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    CBS is broadcasting the Super Bowl this year, so you can bet that they're praying for a Giants-Colts matchup so that the Manning Brothers can drive up their ratings. Let's just flash forward four months into the future and get the call from Jim Nantz and Phil Simms:

    Jim Nantz: Hello, friends! Peyton Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning, Eli Manning Peyton Manning. Eli Manning. Peyton Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning, Eli Manning... Peyton Manning?

    Phi Simms: That's right, Jim. Peyton Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning. Eli Manning Peyton Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning Archie Manning. Peyton Manning.

    Nantz: Stay tuned after this game for the late show with David Letterman and the late-late show with Craig Ferguson. Eli Manning, Peyton Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning, Archie Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning Eli Manning, Eli Manning? Peyton Manning!

    Simms: That's right, Jim. Eli Manning Peyton Manning Olivia Manning Eli Manning Pierre Garcon. Peyton Manning, Eli Manning Peyton Manning Eli Manning, Peyton Manning Cooper Manning. Peyton Manning Eli Manning Peyton Manning.

    Nantz: Stay tuned after this game for the late show with David Letterman and the late-late show with Craig Ferguson. Eli Manning Peyton Manning? Peyton Manning Eli Manning?

    Simms: That's right, Jim. Peyton Manning.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: The good news is that Darren McFadden is injured. With one less option, Tom Cable is "this" much closer to giving the ball to his best runner, Michael Bush, on a more consistent basis.

    The bad news is that the plays will still be coming from upstairs, where Al Davis keeps calling for JaMarcus Russell-to-Darrius Heyward-Bey bombs. Heyward-Bey has a whopping two catches on the year and Russell's completion percentage is a laughable 39.8, so it's safe to say that this plan won't start working anytime soon.

    The Raiders couldn't move the chains against the Texans, so I don't see how they're going to have any success at the Meadowlands. The Giants will put tons of pressure on Russell and force him into countless turnovers. New York will also shut down the run pretty easily.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning suffered an injury against the Chiefs, but it appears as though he's going to play. Fortunately for him, he won't have to do much.

    The Raiders played well against the run the first two weeks of the season, but have since collapsed in that department. Both Denver and Houston rushed the ball at will versus Oakland, so Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will have major success.

    When Manning does have to take matters into his own hands, he'll continue to do what he does best - convert third downs. Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to take away Steve Smith, but Manning will still have Mario Manningham, Kevin Boss and the emerging Hakeem Nicks to work with.

    RECAP: Laying more than two touchdowns with a team that has a big game the following week isn't something very lucrative, but this Raiders squad seems to be falling apart. They played well the first two weeks of the season, but have lost their last two games by a combined score of 52-9.

    I'm beginning to suspect that Tom Cable's future arrest has a lot to do with Oakland's free fall. Think about it - if you're about to be arrested, would you be able to come up with a good game plan to beat another NFL team, especially with a vampirous owner breathing down your neck? I don't think so.

    SURVIVOR PICK: I'm taking the Giants. If you've already used the Giants, here are other teams I considered (in order): Eagles, Steelers, Vikings.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    You have to wonder if the Raiders' coaching staff is distracted with Tom Cable's future arrest. As for the Giants, they have a look-ahead situation with the Saints next week, but they seldom show up flat to these sort of games.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    The public doesn't care that the Giants are favored by 16; they're still giving the points.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 76% (160,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Boomerang Game: Teams returning home from a three-game road trip are 11-16 ATS since 2000.
  • Early Game Alert: Tom Cable is 2-1 ATS on the East Coast for a 1 p.m. ET game (teams 31-45 ATS since 2003).
  • Road Rules: Road teams are 133-89 ATS after losing on the road (Tom Cable 1-0).
  • Raiders are 8-18 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Giants are 14-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 32 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -15.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Giants 30, Raiders 3
    Giants -15.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 38 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Survivor Pick (4-0)
    Giants 44, Raiders 7



    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 15.5. Total: 41.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Eagles -13.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Eagles -13.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    I want to thank Chris Berman and Tom Jackson for covering a whopping seven games on the Blitz during Sunday night Sportscenter. Usually, Boomer and T.J. go over just five or six games. We were lucky to get seven this weekend.

    With seven contests out of the way, Trey Wingo, Merril Hoge and Trent Dilfer had only six more Sunday games to highlight. Unfortunately, that was too simple a task...

    You guessed it: It's time for my NFL Primetime Sucks segment.

    In the past, Berman and Jackson would have covered every game. Wingo, Hoge and Dilfer, however, completely skipped over the Tampa Bay-Washington game. I know it wasn't a very fun contest to watch, but you can't completely ignore it. Boomer and T.J. never would have. Instead, Wingo, Hoge and Dilfer wasted our time with fantasy updates and Monday Night Football analysis, which we get on Monday Night Countdown anyway. Cover all of the Sunday games and stop being annoying please, a**holes! Thank you.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers scored 13 points against the Redskins and could have had six more if Mike Nugent hit all of his field goals. So, getting 19 versus Washington is pretty solid, right?

    Well, not really. Jason Campbell turned the ball over four times in that contest, which constantly gave Josh Johnson a short field to work with. Johnson threw a nice 8-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Bryant, but was otherwise ineffective through the air, going 13-of-22 for 106 yards and a pick. It should be noted that Johnson, unlike Byron Leftwich, was at least able to scramble effectively (41 yards on seven carries).

    None of this will matter against the Eagles. Philadelphia's sixth-ranked rushing defense will put the clamps on the run, forcing Johnson to win this game on his own. That's just not going to happen. The Eagles' secondary should be able to come away with a few turnovers.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Tampa Bay's defense is miserable, ranking 22nd versus the rush and dead last against the pass. They also have just six sacks on the year. The good news is that they get their star safety Tanard Jackson back from suspension. The bad news is that Philadelphia's offense has too much talent.

    Whether Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb is under center, the Eagles should be able to score at will. Brian Westbrook, DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek will be too much for the Bucs to handle.

    RECAP: There's a big disparity in talent here, and it doesn't help the Buccaneers that they're coming off an emotional loss. They put so much energy into that Washington game, but failed to come away with a victory. They might be flat here.

    I'm hearing this line will open up at -14 if McNabb is named the starter. For selfish purposes, I'd rather have Kolb under center so the spread is lower. Depending on what the line is, I may raise this to three units.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Buccaneers put a lot of energy and emotion in the Washington game, nearly coming up with a win. I don't think they'll be able to match that intensity here.


    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Most people love the Eagles. Shocking.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 74% (142,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Bye Bye: Andy Reid is 8-2 ATS off a bye.
  • Road Rules: Road teams are 133-89 ATS after losing on the road.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 20-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Eagles are 57-35 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 25-16 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -13.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Eagles 38, Buccaneers 0
    Eagles -15.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 41.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Eagles 33, Buccaneers 14



    Washington Redskins (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-3)
    Line: Panthers by 4.5. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Panthers -2.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Panthers -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. Hawaii coach Greg McMackin was fined and suspended for 30 days for making homosexual slurs this summer. While people may see McMackin as a homophobe now, I just think he's a moron.

    Right after the second quarter ended of last Wednesday's Hawaii-Louisiana Tech game, an ESPN2 sideline reporter approached McMackin, who looked like he smoked some serious drugs beforehand. The reporter asked McMackin about his stagnant offense, and the following exchange took place:

    McMackin: "We need to go out there in the second half and score more touchdowns."
    Reporter: "But coach, you didn't even score one yet!"
    McMackin: "Uhh... huh?"

    He was so out of it. I've seen cocaine addicts more lucid. Hawaii went on to lose the game. Why am I not surprised?

    2. Another funny instance: In the Penn State-Illinois game, the viewers saw something conducted by millions of football novices playing Madden.

    Picture this: You're young. You're just getting into football. You're playing Madden. You punt the ball away and the other team calls for a fair catch. However, because you don't know the rules, you think, "I'm going to have my player jump to catch the ball before that other guy can." So, you do it, and you get flagged for fair catch interference. And you learned your lesson.

    Apparently, one guy on the Illinois team never played Madden because he did the exact same thing. I don't remember what his name was - and it's a good thing because his grandkids would have to live up to the humiliation - but I had one hell of a laugh.

    3. I'm really depressed that West Virginia beat Colorado last Thursday. I had no rooting interest in either team until I saw West Virginia's demeanor on the sidelines.

    If a team turns it over three times in less than a half, you'd expect the players to be worried. Not the Mountaineers. As hot sideline reporter Erin Andrews told us, the players were laughing and just having a good time. And it's not like they were debacling the other team; the score was just 7-7.

    Poor Colorado was trying its hardest, while West Virginia didn't care. Based on that alone, Colorado deserved to win. Unfortunately, sometimes the "bad guys" win.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers had a bye week, so I didn't get to talk about this much. It's a disgrace that DeAngelo Williams carried the ball 11 times against the Cowboys on Monday night. There's nothing like taking the ball out of your best player's hands and putting all of your faith into a quarterback who turns it over non-stop.

    Carolina has to get back to running the ball. The Redskins aren't particularly strong against the rush (19th), so if Williams gets enough touches, he should be able to have a pretty good game.

    However, that really won't matter if Jake Delhomme keeps fumbling and throwing interceptions. Two of his three games this year have been ugly, while the Atlanta contest could have been just as bad if a Falcon defender didn't drop a pick-six in the first quarter.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I was encouraged to see that Clinton Portis ran the ball 25 times last week. Portis has screws in both of his ankles (ouch) and a bum calf, so there was some speculation that he could miss the Tampa Bay game.

    Portis managed about four yards per carry, a number he should be able to match versus a woeful Carolina defense ranked 29th versus the pass.

    With Portis going, Jason Campbell will cut down on the turnovers this week, and go to Santana Moss and Chris Cooley as often as possible. The Panthers have a solid secondary, but I have faith in Campbell to convert third-and-short opportunities in an underdog role. It helps Campbell that Carolina can't get to the quarterback (4 sacks).

    RECAP: Tons of action is on the Panthers, which is something I can't understand. I have enough of a problem betting on Jake Delhomme as an underdog. Now, you're asking me to lay points with him? I'd feel more secure selling drugs right outside of a police station.

    The Redskins are a bit underrated right now because they lost the Lions, and also nearly went down to St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Washington stinks as a big favorite, but they've proven in the past that you can trust them as an underdog (5-4 ATS as dogs, 2-8 ATS as favorites under Jim Zorn). The Redskins still play solid defense and can run the ball if Portis gets enough carries. Carolina, meanwhile, has major problems at quarterback.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Panthers need to win this game, but the Redskins don't have any reason not to show up.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    The Redskins have looked so miserable that bettors are gambling money on Jake Delhomme.
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 91% (147,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Panthers are 13-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.
  • Panthers are 20-28 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Jake Delhomme is 14-20 ATS as a home favorite.
  • Jake Delhomme is 3-7 ATS off back-to-back losses.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 67 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Panthers 20
    Redskins +4.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 37.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Panthers 20, Redskins 17



    Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
    Line: Ravens by 9. Total: 42.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Ravens -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Ravens -6.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some more college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    4. The SEC officials who called the Georgia-LSU game should be fired.

    Now, I've written that refs should be fired before, but this scenario is completely different. If you didn't see the game, hear me out:

    A.J. Green scored a touchdown with 1:09 remaining in regulation. Once he scored, he ran over to his players to celebrate. The players jumped up and down in jubilation, doing absolutely nothing harmless. However, the officials threw a flag that penalized them 15 yards. LSU took the ball on the short kickoff all the way to the Georgia 37.

    The Tigers scored shortly afterward. When Charles Scott crossed the goal line, he dropped the ball and pointed both hands toward the sky to salute God. Guess what? Another penalty for an unsportsmanlike celebration!

    Unreal.

    These officials need to be fired immediately. They decided the outcome of the game. They became the show, and that just can't happen.

    5. Watching the Oklahoma-Miami game, I had the urge to call Oklahoma's quarterback "Lance Jones" instead of "Landry Jones." Props to anyone who gets that reference. Landry Jones shall now be known as "Lance Jones" going forward on this Web site.

    6. Speaking of Lance Jones, check out how unreal his stats were versus the Hurricanes. More completions than attempts? Now that's major skillz.



    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Bengals finished 12th in defense last year, so it's sort of fitting that they are currently ranked 12th against both the run and the pass right now. They made Derek Anderson look good on Sunday, but that was an obvious flat spot for them.

    Cincinnati will undoubtedly bring its "A" game here, which is bad news for Joe Flacco, who could be without his left tackle, Jared Gaither. Gaither might play, but if he does, he likely won't be at 100 percent. And if he doesn't, Marshal Yanda will have to be on the field. The latter is obviously the worse scenario.

    The Ravens, of course, will try to run the ball with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Both backs have had great success this year, but I'm interested in seeing how they play against a good defense. Baltimore's four opponents, Kansas City, New England, San Diego and Cleveland, all are 20th or worse versus the rush right now. A limited or absent Gaither could make things even more difficult.

    If Baltimore has problems running the ball, Joe Flacco has proven that he's more than capable of carrying the team. Even without his stud left tackle, Flacco should be able to convert some third-and-long situations, assuming, of course, that Mark Clayton actually catches the ball this time.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Cedric Benson has been a big surprise this year, currently ranking fourth in rushing. Unfortunately for Benson, his rushing total won't increase by much, given that Baltimore is first against the run.

    Where the Ravens can be beaten is in the secondary. Tom Brady, who had struggled in Weeks 2 and 3, easily went down the field on Baltimore all afternoon. Carson Palmer, who is developing into a very clutch fourth-quarter quarterback, will be able to torch the Ravens, just as Brady and Philip Rivers have done recently.

    RECAP: This line is outrageous. The public is laying too many points with the Ravens because they just saw the Bengals struggle at Cleveland. How quickly they forget that Cincinnati went into Green Bay and won, and then followed that up with a victory over Pittsburgh.

    The Bengals were flat last week, but it'll likely be the Ravens who struggle this Sunday. Baltimore had a big statement game against the Patriots, but came up about 10 yards short of a huge victory. That'll carry over here, as the Ravens will have trouble getting up for historically crappy Cincinnati. This game means a whole lot more to the Bengals than it does to Baltimore.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    You could see how emotionally drained Ray Lewis was after the game, talking about going home to play the Bengals after losing like his team did against the Patriots. This is a bigger game for Cincinnati.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Lots of early action on Baltimore, but it's evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 57% (174,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • History: Ravens have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog: Marvin Lewis is 1-4 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.
  • Road Rules: Marvin Lewis is 4-0 ATS on the road after a road win.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -9.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 65 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Ravens 23
    Bengals +9 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Over 42.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Bengals 17, Ravens 14





    Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Falcons at 49ers, Jaguars at Seahawks, Texans at Cardinals, Patriots at Broncos, Colts at Titans, Jets at Dolphins


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games



    NFL Picks - Sept. 23


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 20


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 3-2 (+$350)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 3, 2014): 9-7 ($0)
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    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$330)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 29-33-2, 46.8% (-$930)
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    2014 Season Over-Under: 27-20-1, 57.5% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$490

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,043-1,877-113, 52.1% (+$11,495)
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    Career Over-Under: 1568-1557-47 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-2
    Bears: 0-3
    Bucs: 2-1
    49ers: 1-2
    Eagles: 1-2
    Lions: 1-2
    Falcons: 1-2
    Cardinals: 1-2
    Giants: 2-1
    Packers: 1-2
    Panthers: 0-3
    Rams: 1-2
    Redskins: 2-1
    Vikings: 2-1
    Saints: 2-1
    Seahawks: 2-1
    Bills: 1-2
    Bengals: 0-3
    Colts: 1-2
    Broncos: 2-1
    Dolphins: 3-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 1-2
    Chargers: 0-3
    Jets: 1-2
    Ravens: 0-2
    Texans: 2-1
    Chiefs: 3-0
    Patriots: 2-1
    Steelers: 1-2
    Titans: 1-2
    Raiders: 2-1
    Divisional: 6-5 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 2-4 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 4-3 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 7-7 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 6-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-2 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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