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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2014



NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)

NFL Picks (2014): 89-82-6 (+$145)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Nov. 17, 6:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


NFL Picks Week 12 - Early Games
Kansas City at Oakland, Cleveland at Atlanta, NY Jets at Buffalo, Tampa Bay at Chicago, Jacksonville at Indianapolis, Green Bay at Minnesota, Detroit at New England, Tennessee at Philadelphia, Cincinnati at Houston

NFL Picks Week 12 - Late Games
St. Louis at San Diego, Arizona at Seattle, Miami at Denver, Washington at San Francisco, Dallas at NY Giants, Baltimore at New Orleans

BYE:  Pittsburgh, Carolina




Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week. Keep in mind that even if a team is listed here, that doesn't mean that I think lowly of them; they are simply overrated in Vegas' eyes. These are the squads that Vegas can boost the spread on.

Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons have turned things around! Meh, they just beat two awful teams. They're three-point favorites over the Browns, and the public is betting them.

Buffalo Bills - The Bills are not a good team, as they've gotten lucky in some of their wins. Now that the Kyle Orton magic has worn off, Buffalo is ready to fade away.

Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are a bottom-10 team in overall efficiency, and their defense can't put any pressure on the quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks lost to the Rams and then played close games against the Raiders and Giants. I'm not impressed. Max Unger's injury makes things worse.



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Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

Kansas City Chiefs - Common fans haven't caught on to how good the Chiefs are. They've been stellar in terms of the metrics, and their only defeats came against the Broncos and 49ers, and both were close losses on the road.

Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings aren't as bad as everyone thinks they are; they were sixth in defensive yards per play entering Week 9.

New Orleans Saints - Everyone is trashing the Saints following their loss to Cincinnati, but Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks got hurt, and Keenan Lewis barely played.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Buccaneers have just two losses of more than 10 points, and many of their games could have gone either way.













NFL Picks - Nov. 23


2015 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 19


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 1-4 (-$1,010)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 2-0 (+$1,000)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2014): 9-5 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2014): -$110

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (+$145)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-26, 55.2% (+$800)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 6-9-1, 40.0% (-$1,260)
2014 Season Over-Under: 89-69-2, 56.4% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$810

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,103-1,926-116, 52.2% (+$12,560)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 676-609-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 282-243-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,630-1,606-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 4-6
Bears: 5-5
Bucs: 8-2
49ers: 3-6
Eagles: 6-4
Lions: 3-6
Falcons: 5-5
Cardinals: 5-5
Giants: 3-7
Packers: 7-2
Panthers: 5-6
Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 7-3
Vikings: 8-2
Saints: 4-5
Seahawks: 4-6
Bills: 4-6
Bengals: 4-7
Colts: 5-5
Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 6-3
Browns: 5-3
Jaguars: 5-5
Chargers: 3-7
Jets: 6-4
Ravens: 4-5
Texans: 5-5
Chiefs: 7-2
Patriots: 5-5
Steelers: 6-5
Titans: 5-3
Raiders: 3-7
Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
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2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick 2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2014 Season:
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